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Messages - Jack Burton

17
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
I really really hope you are right Flyboy, because I just came out of a task force meeting with our local primary healthcare network and they are projecting a peak at the end of June, and the numbers of ICU admissions they are planning for are genuinely scary
19
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
I think "new cases" is a fluff statistic, you can make this go up or down depending on how many tests you decide to do, and who you decide to test. The stats that are going to matter in this are "new ICU admissions", "total number in ICU", "% of ICU capacity currently being used" and "deaths". These stats would give you a much better idea of where we are and where we are going
22
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
I agree Flyboy, and that's about as good as we could expect I reckon. The other thing to consider in community spread is the numbers of people going to supermarkets, bunnings etc. I think it's inevitable that asymptomatic people will spread viruses around these places and other people will pick them up. I really hope the education about washing hands etc will limit this
24
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Flyboy we also need to understand that the current day's data is a week or more behind what is actually happening today. I pay little attention (if any) to the number of new cases every day. This depends on who is getting tested. Now that the numbers of people getting off cruise ships and returning from overseas is declining (and we're FINALLY quarantining them properly like we should have been doing a month ag0), I'm not surprised that the numbers appear to be slowing. But as I said, once community spread kicks off, and it will, the numbers will escalate quickly
25
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Quote from: flyboy77 on
Quote me your source Jack...re May/June. That is illogical.

The incubation period (99%) anyway is 14 days or less (median 5 days).

And:

"Even people who develop symptoms are at risk of unwittingly spreading the virus. A study in China suggests that infectiousness starts about 2.5 days before the onset of symptoms, and peaks 15 hours before (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbr).

We know that coughs and sneezes spread the virus, so how is it possible for asymptomatic people to spread the infection?

People with mild or no symptoms can have a very high viral load in their upper respiratory tracts, meaning they can shed the virus through spitting, touching their mouths or noses and then a surface, or possibly talking. Even people who don’t feel ill occasionally cough or sneeze.

Once symptoms develop, a person’s viral load declines steadily, and they become increasingly less infectious. However, people appear to keep shedding the virus for around two weeks after they recover from covid-19, both in their saliva and stools (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbs). This means that even once a person’s symptoms have cleared, it may still be possible to infect other people.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238473-you-could-be-spreading-the-coronavirus-without-realising-youve-got-it/#ixzz6HwUGhmXL

"the start of community spread"? What the f... do you think has been happening in recent weeks?

Why do you think we've been socially isolating?

The data doesn't lie! (short of a random event)
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-cases-in-australia-will-peak-in-may-or-june-health-authorities-say-c-761936
"Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos and Chief Health Officer Dr Brett Sutton made the grim announcement on Wednesday."
26
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Quote from: Baggers on
I thought the same thing, FB, until I saw we had 111 new cases in VIC today... up from the 55 or so average over the past week or so. And NSW figures haven't come in yet for today... gulp!
Unfortunately I don't think we are even within sight of the peak (predicted to be late May or early June. In NSW, for the first time yesterday they had more than 50% of their new cases that had not been on a cruise ship or returned from overseas, and had no known contact with anybody who had. That means the start of community spread. And once it starts, it will gain momentum quickly. We're ll hoping the self isolation will slow it down, but there are too many morons who refuse to follow instructions in this country, so increased community spread is inevitable in my opinion
27
Ladies Lounge / Re: AFLW 2020 season
Quote from: kruddler on
It definitely had Harrington.
It wasn't one of those links.

This team i had had your 'supercoach' look to it. Green oval back ground with Players named in positon and circle for team logo with the name.

So Harrington had a carlton logo with it. So unless they got it wrong on both counts, not likely. Cannot recall where i saw it though....online somewhere.
I saw that too, it was some reporter's prediction of what the AFLW team of the year would be