Skip to main content

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all Show Posts made by this member. Note that you can only see Show Posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Lods

3
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I did remember what you said about the preliminary final side.
I think that it also had a bit to do with expectations.
I thought our race was run, we'd done well but that it was a bridge too far on a foreign field, and that ended up being the case.
I kind of remember you had the opposite view and even posted that you couldn't see why we couldn't go all the way.
Was it team selection...or did we just run out of steam.
We'll never know.
We both have different opinions as to why we lost.

I also recognised that now you have elevated Tom above Pittonet.
Bias can be positive or negative, strong or weak and that's my perception of where we're at at the moment.
You still haven't completely warmed to Tom, but for now consider him a better option than Pittonet.
On the other hand I probably have a 'postitive' bias and maybe see him as our standout number one going forward...but yep still with some improvement to come.

I really can't see Pittonet playing a lot of senior football this year and in that respect your one ruck plus back-up is probably how we'll play most of the season.
But if Pittonet starts dominating and Tom get's injured or drops off considerably who knows what the end of season games will look like.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I do think you have a bias towards and against some players.
We all do.
So that's no biggie.
It only becomes an issue when we believe that we are the only ones who are 'right' and everyone else is a bit thick and doesn't really understand the points we're making.
What may seem a good assessment at the time might look a bit short sighted 12 months down the track.
I think we'd all be a touch embarrassed if we had a look at some of the things we wrote 4 or 5 years ago.

I'm biased
I favour the hard worker, less skilled player.
I'll prefer them over a more talented player who doesn't always go at full effort.
I'll give them credit and comment on them, knowing at the same time they'll likely be rubbished because others see them as a liability.
I like to see the little positives and their little wins.
It may be as simple as a Wiggins shepherd for Judd.

The last person to recognise our bias is ourselves.
In in-game threads you can almost predict when someone with bias will step in with the negative comment.
You won't hear the same from that poster if the player does something well.
A lack of bias shows when we give mention to both the positive and the negative.

The thing is these are all different viewpoints.
Because football is a complex game.
And it's a team sport
The champion player is often only able to do the things they do because the support is there for them to perform.
It's all so full of variables like development, playing position, form, injury etc.

You made good points on the Silvagni v TDK issue. I understood them. I could see merit in them.
But looking big picture/future what was the best option.
Who had the most upside-Tom or Jack.
Which player did we think was going to end up the better and more valuable player?
Who needed game time at senior level?

5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
People remember the good things he does, but remember them happening more than they actually do. His actual output has been relatively poor considering the hype.
Thats why i come across as negative, because i point out he hasn't been as good as people say. Showing potential, absolutely. Not maximising it......yet.

It's the old 'unholy trinity' of player evaluation.
Observation, Statistics and Bias

Each has it's limitations.
Observation-What someone sees at the ground is different to what someone views on the television. Small efforts/ one percenters can be picked up on the vision or totally missed through both mediums depending on your concentration at the time or your position in the stands.

Statistics- are useful but are notoriously dubious because they are a raw figure that can describe a number of sceanrios.
As an example10 effective kicks that go to a team-mate don't necessarily advantage a team in the same way as another ten. It's situational

and finally
Bias-even the best of us if, we have a pre-determined opinion of a player, will give a greater emphasis to the strengths or faults we see.

As an example
Poster 'A' will say-
Harry had a good game played well around the ground, missed a couple, but the good outweighed the bad."
Poster 'B' will say-
Harry missed two sitters, nearly cost us the game, momentum killer"
 (You won't hear a peep about the good aspects of his game.)

It's why we see players differently....and neither is completlely right or wrong.
They're just different opinions.
And they're our opinions at different times in a player's career.

So if some say early in 2023 that TDK isn't quite reaching expectations...it's probably a fair comment.
Ask the question early in 2024 and a few folks have probably changed sides.
The trick is not to take too long before you come around or you might miss the boat. ;)  :D



6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Marchbank (if fit), McGovern, Kemp, Weitering and Young.
Do they all fit?

Rumours should be taken with a great deal of caution.
But rumours sometimes have elements of truth, even if it's not the full story.
There were some around last year regarding the relationship in terms of the 'level of confidence' between some of our defenders.
I want to see how they all combine and work together when Weitering and Marchbank return
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I wasn't suggesting we have damaged him. Just pointing out that its more complex than simply play the kids and get them up to speed.

No doubt.
And the folks in the best position to make those decisions are those who work closest with them.
In the past there's been some fair criticism of the way we develop players.
'Development' has taken a back seat to 'results' at times.

I'd like to think we're maybe getting better at that with the current regime in place.
Binns is probably a good example of how we're taking a more measured approach.
Despite calls for his inclusion towards the end of last season, after some great form in the VFL, there was a resistance to pull the switch.
I'm sure we'll see him at some stage this year.
But in the end the greatest benefits for his development will come when he starts mixing it at AFL level.
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
You can also ruin a player and his confidence by gifting them games before they are ready for it.
Dow and O'Brien immediately spring to mind.
Doubley so for young rucks/kpps.

The Dow and O'Brien situation was an intersting one.
Bolton played them early and they seemed to be going OK.

Teague came in and reverted to his more experienced group.
Have a look at Dow's stats in 2018-2019 and you can actually see the point where it goes off the rails.
"Rounds 12-13 2019."

I don't think DeKoning has been damaged by being 'gifted'  games early.
I think he's been managed well, getting games and experience as it was considered he needed that exposure.
He's progressing well over the last two seasons...and the best may be yet to come.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Semantics to a point.

If he does 1 good, athletic, eye-popping thing a game, and goes missing for the rest of it, is that because he hasn't reached his potential or he isn't consistent?
I'd say its potential.

If he has 1 solid game 1 week and a nothing game the next week, i'd say that is consistency.

He may have put together the odd solid game over his career, but he hasn't earned himself a 3 brownlow vote game in the way Nic Nat did. He is capable of it.....which is why its been frustrating.

Previously, people have seen glimpses, and extrapolate that out to a good performance.
When you break it down, the rest of the performances have usually been very much sub par. He is remembered for the 'almost' mark of the week attempts, and not for going missing for 20 minutes at a time. This is why i went to great depth to show people perceptions of what he was doing, was out of whack with what he was actually doing. Opposite was true with Pittonet/Silvagni.

NOW he is starting to find some more consistency and using his gifts we all knew he had. Taking some marks. Getting some ground balls. Sticking some tackles. Kicking some goals. This should be the norm from him, not the exception.

I said all along, i've got no issue with him, but he needed to perform, not just get a gig based on potential. He is starting to perform and we should keep it that way.

My only worry is that he is peforming now because he is fit and healthy. After getting banged up week in and week out, he may not be able to perform in the same way. Won't be able to jump as high, run as fast and pressure in the same manner due to niggles/injury. THEN it may become an issue.

I still maintain we run with 1 ruck, and he is my preference for now.
Maybe switch him out for Pittonet if he starts to carry a niggle, but don't play both.

I reckon the best way to develop your potential is to play senior games against seasoned opposition.
You learn from the best, even if they give you a hiding or two in the early contests.
De Koning's starting to show us what he's capable of because he's been getting those experiences against the very best in the latter part of last season and early this year.
You don't get that playing VFL.

Consistency is another thing that comes from experience.
It sometimes takes a while...so if there is the odd run of bad games we have to accept that as part of the development.

It's why it's probably not a great idea to make judgements in the moment, or at a certain point of a players early career.

10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Go back to around this time last year and read some of the comments regarding TDK.
They're often about his 'unrealised' potential...like "he hasn't really shown us what he is capable of yet"
He was probably second choice ruckman behind Pittonet at that stage.

Surely folks can see the improvement.
That's all we can ask....'improvement'.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
Yes, Weiters back to get the defence organised and to steady us a bit. We looked shakey a few times down back last night and Larkey could certainly  cause some mayhem.
Martin would be nice too! Just hoping. I'm not expecting Walshy back just yet.

Docherty missing from the defence (even though he's been playing further upfield) means we may not have a 'general' back there while Weitering is missing.
Still you would think with the experience of Saad, Newman, Williams and McGovern someone else would be taking up that 'role'.
Anyone stand out as the 'director' in Weitering's absence?
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 2 2024 Bye
Voss was saying in his presser that they've gone pretty hard in the lead-up to the bye.
They've been planning this once the fixture was known around November.
Essentially maintaining a high workload, with the inention then to use the bye as a freshening up period prior to attacking the season proper.
As a result there are a few bodies in need of a break.

McGovern mentioned after last nights game they'd been training hard, and that he was a bit sore, and definitely looking forward to a rest.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Nice to win....but I thought we were well off the pace.

We've shown glimpses of that hard contesting play in the two games played so far but it's not been as consistent as it was at the end of last season.
There seems to be a bit of a 'disconnect' as well and that may be down to the structural injuries.
Too much was left to too few last night and a number of players had little impact.
When your mid-level talent is struggling it exposes your bottom-end talent.

The forward line was a dog's breakfast.
Dropping the ball in high when you have good tall forwards like Curnow and McKay may seem like a good idea.
If they don't mark it they will bring it to ground where our small forwards can go to work.
Problem is we didn't have any small forwards on last night's shift.
Probably a little unfair on Owies who is always good for a goal or two, but he goes unsighted for a lot of the game.

Lots to work on in the coming break and hopefully a freshened up group (with a few less injuries) ready to go after the bye.