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Messages - LP

31
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle
Fogarty case will be interesting, the interchange side view shows him punching the footy and seemingly making contact with Fyfe's right arm or the footy first, but then Fogarty's left arm / fingers hit Fyfe in the throat.

The media are doing it's best to hang Fogarty and pump up the controversy by showing the blindside view, which makes it looks like Fogarty's right fist hits Fyfe.

32
Ladies Lounge / Re: VFLW 2024
B Octavia Di Donato (51) Gen Lawson-Tavan (27)
HB Hannah Bowey (64) Emily Hurley (61) Steph Demeo (66)
C Keeley Skepper (4) Brooke Vickers (24) Eliza Wood (50)
HF Marianna Anthony (14) Mia Austin (22) Lily Goss (20)
F Lila Keck (23) Sophie McCarthy (54)
FOLL Jemma Stokes (65) Maddie Guerin (18) Keeley Sherar (25)

INT Asha Turner-Funk (53) Georgia Tait (57) Danika Di Santo (76) Izzy Khoury (52) Meg Robertson (15)

EMG Isabella Parnell (59) Isla Baldwin (70) Simone Mooney (78) Katie Prendergast (77)

In: Marianna Anthony, Lily Goss, Gen Lawson-Tavan, Emily Hurley, Danika Di Santo
Out: Ciara Fitzgerald, Lulu Beatty, Layla Prince, Natasha Phipps, Isla Baldwin
33
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: The Zuton factor - Pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure
Fogarty is number 1 at Carlton for forward 50 pressure, number 1 in the AFL for forward 50 tackles and number 1 at Carlton for score assists.
This stuff is completely missed by TV viewers, and game callers, because it all happens well off the footy not even within the side on camera field of view most of the time. You basically have to be at the ground with a wide field view and not be ball watching to see it happen, much of it only really visible in replays from behind the goals.

It's why players like Owies, Cottrell, Fogarty and Boyd are so heavily favoured by coaches while being whipped by many fans.

You know when the opposition find space in our D50, it's not the fault of Plowman, Weiters, Youing, McGovern or Newman, although they cop the brunt of the fan ire because the fans see the end result. The cause is because some utility, SF or wing hasn't pushed hard to run into the available space well ahead of the contest. This was one of the reasons why I was a critic of Motlop, fans love him because in camera they see him chase, tackle, and use the footy. But it's what he wasn't doing when the ball was far away that was the real problem.

Much of it is summarised by those coaching tips from Hodge to young players on the field, "You push there, don't watch from here, you go into that space when the contest is over there!"
34
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
Will it be working well 20 games in, or will Harry suffer the same fatigue and stress, that Jack Silvagni experienced when called upon to perform that role.

The thing is we have options, we have the ability to manage players.
We can rotate them around, even rest them if the oppostion doesn't require them to perform a role that week.
The risk is immensely disproportional to the benefit of those two options. I'd say they deliver about the same in terms of 2nd ruck, at least at the moment, but on the risk side one is a Coleman medallist entering his prime the other a useful utility on the fringe of the 22.

The thing is we have options, we have the ability to manage players.
We can rotate them around, even rest them if the oppostion doesn't require them to perform a role that week.
What we do week to week depends far more on the opposition list than the capabilities and combinations of our own list, how well our team is managed by the MC will determine the fate of our team's 2024 campaign.
35
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
For me good form in the ruck isn't just about personal stats, it's about stopping opponents from getting similar results. It's always been one of my arguments against some of our alternative 2nd ruck options, because despite doing OK themselves they aren't able to restrict their opponents, they let opponents of the leash.

So for me a ruck in very good form dominates and supresses opponents, at the moment TDK is playing well but for me he is mostly breaking even with his direct opponents.

Don't get me wrong, he's playing well, and going head to head with very good rucks like Gawn and Nankervis, when he puts them to the sword like they have done to him in the past that's when he'll be at his best.
36
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
A consistent home and away team needs stability and understanding your roles.

TDK has been great in the ruck -  looks much more battle hardened now and winning more tackles and clearances..and hit outs than last year. I don't think he is in good form its his natural growth and no one knows where his ceiling is just yet. Lets find out where that is and we will never find out if his rhythm is disrupted.
Agreed, he is not in good form yet but his confidence is growing and form should improve with confidence.

If anything it's an even bigger positive because he is finding ways to have influence even if he isn't dominating. In particular his 2nd Efforts and Body work are up on previous seasons, which makes it possible to put the brakes on opposition while making life just a little easier for Cripps and our other Mids.

One of the biggest things rucks learn with experience is where to be and when, putting themselves in just the right position to leave space for team-mates while hindering opponents. Kreuzer was always good at it, Gawn is exceptional, it happens 5m or 10m away from where the ball is to force opponents to deviate in a chase or be delayed closing space.
37
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
I think freos forwards aren't that tall but have a bit of toe.
The Freo F50 is taller than us, three KPFs over 195cm and Jackson rests forward!

Could be a tough week for TDK, Jackson is in good form.

Freo have finally realised smashing Jackson in the ruck trying to win taps means nothing when you have a player with his sort of ground skill and agility. If a fan was naïve enough just to look at the rucks stats it would suggest O'Brien smashed Jackson, but the ruck stats are meaningless, Jackson made O'Brien look like a traffic cone.

When the ball got locked into the Freo F50, Treacy took some of the ruck and Jackson became a mobile 4th KPF in Charlie style.
38
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
I good win, but it feels like we still have not yet clicked.

It's so hard to tell in modern footy, to gauge the intensity, are the fumbles pressure and pace related or just players being a bit off.

From the start BigH looked like he was on, Hewett also looked switched on, Cripps was switched on, probably McGovern, the rest seemed to be a bit off the pace. I thought the Norp kids in the midfield showed us up for pace at various times, but they made bad choices under pressure which turned it over.

I thought it was a good from Carroll, given Norp are young it is a game that is good game to use as relative judgement for Carroll's draft peers. ( The classical music bloke Wardlaw looks to be a pick of the litter, reminds me of a young Voss. )

Marchbank unlucky again, but horribly out of touch early, that start was a goal away from becoming an MC shocker.

Fantasia, this is a player who has been in the system a decade this year and he looks timid, not sure AFL game time is doing him any favours, he looks massively down on confidence and off the pace.

Elijah Hollands started sketchy but ended up showing what I had expected from Fantasia. Played like a bloke who knows Walsh is returning, played like his life depended on it. If Elijah keeps playing like that it's going to make life very interesting at MC.

TDK slow start, still not convinced he's a solo against the likes of Xerri, TDK had some 2nd half influence but mostly due to Xerri's errors. It's a weird game style the AFL is going through at the moment, at one stage we had BigH versus Larkey in the centre, it's like using your best wine glasses as a hammer and chisel. Sooner or later someone is going to suffer a tragedy and this trend will end.
41
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
So Weiters, Marchbank and Motlop available.

Weiters is an automatic, what of the others, I suspect not?

I think the obvious outs will be Young, and if needed Fantasia and probably Carroll(unlucky) to allow a reshuffle.

Cunningham is unlucky if he goes out because he has not done much wrong but he hasn't hit the scoreboard much either, same applies to Fogarty and Owies. But this may be the role they play while BigH is up and about. They have the experience over Carroll, so unless Carroll gets a F50 gig then he is unlucky. Cunningham and Fogarty are also mid capable.

Durdin is probably the least utilitarian, but he might scrape in again as an emergency as it's a bit tough to give a player the axe off the back of just a few minutes. For me Binns was the natural to get a run after Doc went down, with either one of Binns or Boyd getting further up the field to have a crack at hitting the scoreboard.

I'm still a bit surprised Durdin got a run ahead of Binns, I have to wonder what it is that Binns is doing wrong because he looks quite good at the lower level.
44
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: The Zuton factor - Pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure
The thing with pressure acts is that they're nebulous.  As Matty Cottrell's comment implies, the people who matter at footy clubs value some player actions that many spectators - and commentators - may not even notice.
Yep, I said as much about Owies deep running last season, while some want him dropped for not kicking goals every game.

However, I bet the coach and the team notice him just tens of seconds apart levelling up the numbers at both ends of the ground. Probably doesn't even get a stat for it, but it's worth far more than many of the AFL's so called "Pressure Acts!"

Same applies to Cottrell, sometimes you just have to work hard to close of space to be a contributor, he does it often but you won't see it on TV because it actually stops the ball going to where he is!

Yet if Cottrell and Owies hesitate in making the ground, they'll probably find themselves in a contest and get a "Pressure Act" or "Tackle" stat! ;)