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Social Club => Blah-Blah Bar => Topic started by: spf on September 23, 2022, 08:19:30 am

Title: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: spf on September 23, 2022, 08:19:30 am
I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.

Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.

I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?

It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.

$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.

Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on September 23, 2022, 08:45:17 am
I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.

Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.

I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?

It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.

$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.

Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?

Most of the discussion on the war has taken place in the General Discussion thread, but maybe it's better to have a distinct thread.

I guess the main problem with that idea is the logistical issues involved.
Russians leaving the front line are heading in the direction of home.
Crossing into Ukraine held territory would be a fairly dangerous and risky proposition.
Letting the participants know of the benefits would also be difficult...there'd be apprehension as to how legitimate such a scheme was.
And probably most importantly it would mean leaving family behind.

The situation is poised at a particularly dangerous point.
A possibly ailing Putin is backed in a corner facing pressure from Ukranian advances, right wing hawks who want him to go a lot harder, and now growing anti-war sentiments amongst the general popualtion.
If he is in fact terminally ill (nothing concrete, just observations he's not well) he becomes more dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Referendums in the next week in breakaway sections of Ukraine will almost certainly vote for incorporation into Russia.
Attacks on these areas by Ukrainians then become attacks on Russia in Russian eyes.
A declaration of war against Ukraine rather than the limp 'special military' operation may follow.
The threat of the use of a tactical nuclear device becomes an possibility.

Does NATO then get involved with some response?
The problem is that the Russian ground forces have had such difficulty in Ukraine that they would certainly struggle against a full NATO force should they become involved.
The Russian 'hordes' are not going to sweep across Europe, they never were.
That leaves the Russians with a scary option...they wont be able to fight such a war in a conventional manner.

The unknown in a wider conflict is the reaction of countries like China ( I suspect they'd be happy to sit back and pick up the pieces.)

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 09:03:14 am
Referenda are planned over the next few days to incorporate the mostly Russian speaking areas of the Donbas and around Herson etc into the Russian Federation. This will fundamentally change the picture. I  understand that the Russian troops being mobilised now are mainly ex military who will serve in Russia itself, freeing the regular army to be deployed in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 23, 2022, 09:38:09 am
The proposal is fine if you are an orphan but if you have family in Russia…
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 10:25:45 am
Referenda are planned over the next few days to incorporate the mostly Russian speaking areas of the Donbas and around Herson etc into the Russian Federation. This will fundamentally change the picture. I  understand that the Russian troops being mobilised now are mainly ex military who will serve in Russia itself, freeing the regular army to be deployed in Ukraine.
I have a friend in Russia and this is how he has described the situation.
He is an engineer but hasn't been asked to join anything.
It's more of a home guard scenario, the propaganda they get fed is Ukraine being aggressive towards Russia and them needing to defend their soil not the other way around.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 23, 2022, 10:30:34 am
Poor Russia, always the victim…
How to be a despot 101.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 10:51:27 am
Poor Russia, always the victim…
How to be a despot 101.
It's the conditioning and mentality, they still have regular military parades celebrating the 2nd world war win over Germany.
Villages have well kept monuments to fallen war heroes, it's the world against Russia and that's how the oldies still view it.The younger folk are different and don't buy all the propaganda and there is a real divide with lots of Gopniks trying to act like kids from the west, they would be the conscripts dropping their weapons and running home..
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on September 23, 2022, 11:05:41 am
The BBC News reports varied responses to the thousands of Russian men trying to flee the country to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine:

Quote
Queues have sprung up along Russia's border as men attempt to leave the country to avoid a military call-up for the war in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation on Wednesday, which could see 300,000 people summoned to serve in the war.

The Kremlin says reports of fighting-age men fleeing are exaggerated.

But on the border with Georgia, miles-long queues of vehicles have formed including men trying to escape the war.

One man, who did not want to be named, told the BBC's Rayhan Demytrie he had grabbed his passport and headed to the border, without packing anything else, immediately after President' Putin's announcement - because he fell into the group that could potentially be sent to the war.

Some witnesses estimated the queue of cars at the Upper Lars checkpoint to be some 5km (3 miles) long, while another group said it had taken seven hours to get across the border. Video from the scene showed some drivers leaving their cars or trucks temporarily in standstill traffic.

Georgia is one of the few neighbouring countries that Russians can enter without needing to apply for a visa. Finland, which shares a 1,300km (800 mile) border with Russia, does require a visa for travel, and also reported an increase in traffic overnight - but said it was at a manageable level.

Other destinations reachable by air - such as Istanbul, Belgrade or Dubai - have seen ticket prices skyrocket immediately after the military call-up was announced, with some destinations sold out completely. Turkish media have reported a large spike in one-way ticket sales, while remaining flights to non-visa destinations can cost thousands of euros.

Germany's interior minister signalled on Thursday that Russians fleeing the draft would be welcome in her country.

Nancy Faeser said deserters threatened by "severe repression" would receive protection on a case-by-case basis, following security checks. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic struck a different tone, saying they would not offer fleeing Russians refuge.

I guess it's understandable that countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic are fearful of an influx of Russian conscription refugees.  Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland recently banned all Russian tourists on the basis that Russians should not be enjoying democracy and freedom in Europe while Russia attacks those values in Ukraine.

More significant than the mobilisation announced in Putin's decree this week was the indefinite extension of all current military service contracts.  It is thought that Putin was told his entire professional army was going to quit at the end of their contracts to avoid spending winter in trenches being bombarded by HIMARS.

The West's provision of military hardware to Ukraine is a key to the successes of the Ukraine military.  Diverting funds away from that support could tip the balance back to Moscow.  However, I would be very surprised if the expenditure on military hardware isn't closely matched by covert expenditure on destabilising the Russian regime, encouraging deserters, and supporting opposition to Putin's war.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 11:13:45 am
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on September 23, 2022, 11:24:21 am
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 11:53:30 am
That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.

The world order is changing before our eyes Lods and stakes are high. Some will win some will lose and some will be sacrificed. Very  unpredictable times.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 23, 2022, 11:55:30 am
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 12:08:22 pm
Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…
Putin wants to be remembered in history as a war hero like Stalin,he wants a win and his part in Russian history. With his health fecked he wants to do it before the Hellhounds come for him and that makes him dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Toss of the coin whether he goes nuke or the West via Ukraine offer a deal that allows him to withdraw with some dignity so he puts his toys back in the box.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 12:23:22 pm
EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 04:26:07 pm
EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.
Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.


Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Baggers on September 23, 2022, 07:48:37 pm
Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.

No matter what Putin settles on there will be underground Ukraine forces that will continually eat away at and undermine any captured cities/towns (no doubt with support from other nations/CIA). Poorly conceived and executed plan from Putin... he thought he'd have all of the Ukraine in weeks. But as others have mentioned, a lunatic with his finger on the button backed into a corner... He's also getting increased pressure at home, to further corner him. Locking up thousands of your own protesting citizens seldom ends well.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on September 24, 2022, 05:12:31 pm
Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 24, 2022, 05:15:35 pm
Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.

Despots often don’t reason too well though…
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 03, 2022, 02:29:05 pm
Really really long post here, but because I have a number of close friends in Russia, I can't really post too much publicly in case it in some way it impacts them, but well there is far less chance something here gets read as opposed to on Facebook/Twitter etc.

It doesn't matter whether Putin is deathly ill or not (I don't personally believe that he is), what matters is the fact that if he loses this war outright, he is ousted, exiled, jailed or murdered ('dies peacefully in his sleep').

Someone mentioned that he wants to be remembered like Stalin and this is pretty accurate, or even more so like Peter, Catherine or Vladimir the "Greats". Russia/Ukraine has a long and complicated history, but this history only serves his purpose to be remembered forever. Obviously Kiev was the jewel in the crown of the Kievan Rus for a good few hundred years, but the ruling family were not actually local originally in any case. Kievan Rus was broken in many principalities, Moscow being a minor one amongst them. But the ruling class of Moscow did not represent the general population of Kiev and the areas now known as Ukraine. It does however play hard at the heart of Russians who truly believe Ukraine is "Russian" land and always has been. Winning this territory back for Mother Russia would be wildly popular with the Russian population.

In regards to mobilization, some things that it is not, that the west was buying
- It is not only 300,000 people
- It is not only reservists
- It is not excluding people deemed 'unfit' for work.. As  an example of this, I know of a man in his 40s with 2 young children to care for that presented a certificate that should have excluded him when he was drafted. The response of the recruited was "Do you think I give a f**k about your certificate?"
- They will not spend 3-5 months training to be battle ready for the war, they are mostly cannon fodder.
- Most Russians called up will go and fight in Ukraine, they won't desert.

Their method of rounding up is quite comprehensive, with military surrounding all exits to a town, then the recruiters going in and basically rounding up as many men as they can. All business are being asked to supply a list of all males that work for them and their suitability to perform in the war.


As mentioned, most Russians will NOT desert. They are unhappy to be called up, but see it as a duty they must fulfill if called upon, or see it as a hopeless situation to try and desert. Remember, despite Russia not having a death penalty, it has been made clear to many in the armed forces that they will be shot if they desert or if they retreat without orders.

As for Putin and the nuclear option, well does anyone have the slightest doubt that Hitler would have used a Nuclear weapon, even knowing it would cause a nuclear war that killed everyone? In Putin's eyes, I have little doubt he is seriously considering using a nuclear weapon and even starting a full blown nuclear war, if he can't have what he wants. For him it is seriously a consideration as an option when put up against the option of withdrawing his forces from Ukraine and being seen as weak in the eyes of the Russian public.

Whilst support for the war in Russia is nowhere near the 90%+ levels that a vote would suggest it is, the number is still very high (above 60% for sure and likely above 70%). A lot of Russian people believe the internet is full of misinformation and propaganda from the west aimed at bringing Mighty Russia to it's knees, to subjugate the country through misinformation and dissent. They truly believe what they hear on state broadcast television is much more accurate than what they can get on the internet, it is a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" that large swathes of the country suffer from.

As for regime change ONLY Russians will decide if there will be regime change. There is a very very slight chance the populace breaks out into a revolution, but this is minuscule. The only realistic chance of regime change is if the elite decide on it, but even this is extremely difficult. If you are suspected, you will die through committing suicide from a hospital/apartment/hotel window. The last thing of course, is that Putin is not the most extreme person within the Russian elite. History shows us extreme people often rise to the very top, because others are so fearful of repercussions if they oppose them, so there is a quite reasonable chance that if Putin was ousted/died etc, that a more extreme person could come in and lead the country. The very hated ex president/prime minister is one example of someone who has been strongly advocating for the use of nuclear weapons, this could be to try and fix his public appeal as he is reviled in Russia, but it might just be that he is also a lunatic and would come in and press buttons to get the job done.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Professer E on October 05, 2022, 08:58:53 am
Gees that's just uplifting reading. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on October 05, 2022, 09:11:45 am
Its war.

Propaganda is king in war.  That was the number one lesson I learnt from studying history.  That, and the victors are always the heroes, and to the defeated goes the title of tyrant or aggressor. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on October 05, 2022, 09:30:52 am
Yep
The propoganda machines on both sides are in full swing.
History is written by the winner.

Be careful of anything you read from both sides.

The Ukranians seem to be doing well.
The Russians are even acknowledging this.
Russia is clearly the 'military' aggressor in this conflict.
The devastation in Ukranian cities is indisputable.
Rockets are flying into Ukranian cities, They're not flying into Moscow.
I'd naturally put more faith in the anti-Russian press.

But don't take for gospel everything from the Western side.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on October 05, 2022, 09:43:16 am
Yep
The propoganda machines on both sides are in full swing.
History is written by the winner.

Be careful of anything you read from both sides.

The Ukranians seem to be doing well.
The Russians are even acknowledging this.
Russia is clearly the 'military' aggressor in this conflict.
The devastation in Ukranian cities is indisputable.
Rockets are flying into Ukranian cities, They're not flying into Moscow.
I'd naturally put more faith in the anti-Russian press.

But don't take for gospel everything from the Western side.


Yes all of that is true.

The innocent people who live in these places are the only victims too.

Only thing I wonder is how do we arrive at a situation where what was effectively a conflict between two neighbour nations, has somehow impacted everyone across the globe, particularly the day to day costs of living and general economic well being.  The two may not be mutually exclusive, given the last few years fiscal policy was always going to result in the hyperinflated economy we are witnessing today, but it truly is fascinating how our global money markets have gone into meltdown over this.   

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 05, 2022, 02:03:02 pm
Russian Street Talk Channel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4mtXdGgnkc&ab_channel=1420)

This channel is just a 'fun' Russian youtube channel, it has a lot of street talk on it.
The video I have linked is from a regional area and is asking people how they feel about mobilization.
Now looking at the channel they often ask quite controversial questions and it is suprising that they have not been locked up, but what is quite depressing is the responses at times. Sometimes it is uplifting to see that not everyone buys into the propaganda machine, but it is quite clear many do, especially the older generation, but not exclusively.

Of course the west lies as well and also makes mistakes in their analysis of Russia and it's people, I think this is largely because they don't fully understand the Russian  psyche in a lot of situations. Remember Russian people throughout all of their history have never actually been free and made definitive choices on their future. The one exception 'may' have been the election of Yeltsin, but generally speaking things have been either openly under the leaders control (Russian Empire and USSR) or the leaders have tried to pretend Russian's had a choice with recent elections, but of course all negative press is under constant attack and lives are in danger, or the opposition is simply arrested on charges and locked away, thereby forbidding them from running again in an election.

But anyway it is a pretty good channel, it is one of many that I watch when i have a few moments and just looking for something to do.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 11, 2022, 03:18:04 am
Don't be surprised to see another serious push towards Kiev, probably beginning from Belarus again. Stretching Ukraine's troops as widely and as thinly as possible is very likely one of the aims of the mobilization.

What I struggle with a lot is why the west continues to be bullied by Russia. Western governments have every right to stabilize a country at the request of that countries legitimate government, but because it is against Russia, the countries are very loathe to do so and in the mean time 10s of 1000s are dying. By enforcing a no fly zone, by attacking areas of opposition troops (especially because the sham referendums) they had every opportunity to push Russia completely out of the country and make Russia need to reassess the situation, it would have also sent a strong message to any other countries considering the same. We only need to look back to Kuwait and the swift response there, because of course Iraq is not a nuclear equipped superpower so the decision was easy.

Anyway on a slightly different now, I have done a translation of an excerpt from a memoir written by a Russian soldier who has since defected to France and I think his book is published or being published.

But I thought it is interesting to share, it shows some Russian's really do wonder why they are there, unfortunately asking these questions for most Russian's really is the same as asking if your own parents or children are evil, you simply cannot process this, there must be a better answer.

My translation is a mix of my own and Google's, my Russian is not fantastic and because of how they phrase things, it needed to be paraphrased a little, but the general gist is correct.

Quote from: ZOV - Pavel Filatyev

If we turn to sterotypes then the answer will be that I am a military man, a paratrooper, I am
obliged to follow orders and do not have the right to chicken out and not go to war when it
starts; I am obliged to serve for the good of my country and to protect the people of Russia.
But then common sense begins to argue and ask questions.

"Did Ukraine threaten Russia?"

Everyone says that Ukraine wanted to join NATO, but do we attack every country that wants to join NATO?
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland are already in NATO. Finland is joining NATO now. Our plane was shot down over TUrkey not long ago, but we quickly forgot this, we have a dispute with Japan about the Kuril Islands. Hell the US borders us to the East. But all this for some reason is not a pretext for starting a war. We're not attacking them, or is that just for now?

It turns out that it is not the reason.

"If we had not attacked Ukraine, would they have attacked us?"

Many echo the TV, saying that we launched a preemptive strike, but how can you believe that Ukraine would have attacked Russia, Crimea, if the armed forces of Ukraine could not hold their own borders? They wage this war on the defensive, suffering huge losses. Everyone knows that defensive warfare is easier than attacking. How could this country (Ukraine), which can hardly defend itself, slowly losing its territories, attack? And would it not be easier for our army to strengthen the borders and defenses around Ukraine and, in the even of an attack, meet the enemy on the defensive, break their offensive capabilities and go on the counterattack? Indeed, in this case, our losses would have been much less, and the world community would not be able to accuse Russia of aggression and "condemn" our country as an occupier and invader. It turns out that the Ukraine was going to attack Russia was also a lie?

"Was Ukraine overrun by Nazism and did they infringe on the Russian population (of Ukraine)?"

I talked with people who were in Ukraine before the war, and, oddly enough, no one was able to remember a specific case where someone was infringed upon or offended them for having a Russian surname or for not being able to speak Ukrainian. And some isolated cases of domestic conflicts on ethnic grounds can be found in every country in the world.

"Did we attack to save the DNR and LNR?"

What is the DNR and LNR? Indeed, in fact and legality, these are two regions that were part of Ukraine and then rebelled and decided to become independent. Isn't this the same as if Karelia wanted to join Finland, Smolensk region to Lithuania, Rostov region to Ukraine, Yakutia to USA or Khabarovsk to China, isn't this the same? Why are we defending the LDNR? Did it make the ordinary people in the Donbas feel better? After all, in the Russian Federation we would not have tolerated this, just as we didn't give Chechnya indedependence, paying for it with thousands of lives. Why did we arrange the same without neighbours? But at the same time, the leaders of the LPR and DPR, despite the support of the Russian government were unable to provide their residence with social security and safety, which is why people fled en masse to Russia, Crimea and Ukraine. In conversation with people who fled the war in Donetsk and Luhansk, I did not hear about the cases of Nazism that are shouted about from our media. But all as one spoke about the fact that they fled from the war and that they just want to live and work in peace. If we tried in every possible way to help the people of Donetsk and Luhansk, then why didn't we just limit ourselves to providing Russia passports to everyone? We have plenty of empty land that no human hands have touched, please let them come, live and work with us. Why do we need the territory of a foreign state? What for? Are we short on land? People really believe that all those who wanted to live in Russia have not yet received Russian passports and moved to us?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 12, 2022, 07:58:14 pm
In a charming new development, Russian businesses are handing out leaflets to staff on what to do if their city is attacked. When one considers that even the government understand 100% that this is only possible if they use nuclear weapons and in fact if they start a nuclear war (rather than tactical nuclear weapons), then this is more than a little bit of a worry
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 15, 2022, 10:15:02 am
I just came across a photograph of a bog-standard Russian T-62 main battle tank captured by Ukrainian forces.  That's bog-standard as in how it rolled off the assembly line between 1961 and 1975; no upgrades, additional armour or modifications.  The T-62 is roughly the equivalent of the British Chieftain (withdrawn from service in 1995) and the German Leopard 1 (withdrawn from Australian service in 2004) although the Chieftain was a superior tank.

The Russians seem reluctant to deploy their T-90 MBTs in any numbers and their most recent MBT, the T-14, seems to be limited to military parades.  Relying on museum pieces to counter NATO's (not to mention Israel's and Australia's) latest military hardware isn't going to work. 

You can't infer much from a photograph of one captured tank but, coupled with Russian setbacks and their withdrawal from Kherson, it seems that Putin's senseless war may be coming to an end.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Baggers on November 15, 2022, 10:35:58 am
I just came across a photograph of a bog-standard Russian T-62 main battle tank captured by Ukrainian forces.  That's bog-standard as in how it rolled off the assembly line between 1961 and 1975; no upgrades, additional armour or modifications.  The T-62 is roughly the equivalent of the British Chieftain (withdrawn from service in 1995) and the German Leopard 1 (withdrawn from Australian service in 2004) although the Chieftain was a superior tank.

The Russians seem reluctant to deploy their T-90 MBTs in any numbers and their most recent MBT, the T-14, seems to be limited to military parades.  Relying on museum pieces to counter NATO's (not to mention Israel's and Australia's) latest military hardware isn't going to work. 

You can't infer much from a photograph of one captured tank but, coupled with Russian setbacks and their withdrawal from Kherson, it seems that Putin's senseless war may be coming to an end.

I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on November 15, 2022, 11:25:00 am
I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.
Do we really think Putin (or anyone else for that matter) is insane enough to go Nuclear? I personally don't think anyone is, perhaps I'm just naïve.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on November 15, 2022, 11:25:46 am
I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.

Zelensky was in Kherson today...
You would think if Russian intelligence was any good it would have been the perfect time for a strike, (not necesarily nuclear)
It's all a bit bizarre.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on November 15, 2022, 12:20:55 pm
Looks like tentative moves being made towards possibly opening negotiations. Let's hope so.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on November 15, 2022, 01:50:54 pm
Do we really think Putin (or anyone else for that matter) is insane enough to go Nuclear? I personally don't think anyone is, perhaps I'm just naïve.
KJs sister is a lunatic and I reckon Putin and his mate who he handed power too when he was indisposed are also crazy enough.Any peace with Putin will come at a price imho...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on November 15, 2022, 07:26:03 pm
Zelensky was in Kherson today...
You would think if Russian intelligence was any good it would have been the perfect time for a strike, (not necesarily nuclear)
It's all a bit bizarre.
I tend to think that countries like Russia and China whilst populous aren't that smart. Lots of huff and puff and intimidation but...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on November 15, 2022, 07:32:14 pm
KJs sister is a lunatic and I reckon Putin and his mate who he handed power too when he was indisposed are also crazy enough.Any peace with Putin will come at a price imho...
Putin is gonski on the world stage whether he pulls a nuke out or not. I still dont reckon that anyone on the planet in 2022 or beyond has the balls to go nuclear. IMO If anyone did, they would be obliterated from the map by the Worlds retaliation and everyone (insane or not) knows it.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 15, 2022, 10:20:19 pm
Putin’s absence from the G20 meeting is interesting, and it has nothing to do with Abbott finally making good on his threat to shirtfront Putin.

Putin is concerned about humiliation on the international stage, a coup while he’s out of the country, and/or assassination.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 16, 2022, 09:48:07 am
S-300 missiles have caused deaths in Poland.  Both Russia and Ukraine use S-300 surface to air missiles; Russia’s missile shortage and low air defence requirements mean that they are using S-300 missiles in a surface to surface role. Ukraine uses them against Russian cruise missiles. At this stage, it’s not known whether the missiles that struck Poland were Russian or Ukrainian.  Either way, Poland is on full alert and is consulting with its NATO allies.

This may be a wayward missile or it may be a deliberate strike.  Putin has continually warned that he can expand the conflict in response to the West’s support for Ukraine.  This could be the first shot in an expanded conflict.

Let’s hope not!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on November 16, 2022, 04:52:43 pm
Stuff up by Ukraine apparently.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on November 16, 2022, 05:36:49 pm
Stuff up by Ukraine apparently.
I believe Ukraine also fired a missile by accident into Romania early on in the war and Romanian jets were scrambled but failed to get off the ground in time and the missile luckily hit nothing but travelled a fair way.
NATO were not that impressed with the lack lustre Romanian response.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 16, 2022, 09:02:08 pm
I understand that the missile’s trajectory indicates that it wasn’t fired from Russia.  In that case, it was fired by Ukraine or by Russian occupying forces.

I wonder if the potential strike zone of a surface to air missile that misses its target is factored in as part of the firing solution.  I suspect not, given the ability of SAMs to follow the target’s changes of course.  It’s probably very fortunate that there haven’t been more casualties in neighbouring countries.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 17, 2022, 03:14:08 am
I understand that the missile’s trajectory indicates that it wasn’t fired from Russia.  In that case, it was fired by Ukraine or by Russian occupying forces.

I wonder if the potential strike zone of a surface to air missile that misses its target is factored in as part of the firing solution.  I suspect not, given the ability of SAMs to follow the target’s changes of course.  It’s probably very fortunate that there haven’t been more casualties in neighbouring countries.
They have to be modified to hit ground targets, I believe they self-destruct in air after missing a target.
 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 17, 2022, 08:52:13 am
They have to be modified to hit ground targets, I believe they self-destruct in air after missing a target.

The S-300 and S-400 missile systems have a secondary ground attack function.  It’s just a matter of entering the target’s co-ordinates into the guidance system.

Apparently there have been many ground impacts from SAMs that missed airborne targets.  Some self-destructed just before ground impact, some rained 2,000kg of debris after self-destructing at altitude and others just fell to earth.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on November 17, 2022, 09:47:50 am
Why the media can never fully be trusted (particularly in the context of propaganda and its use to sway the masses across history).

Day before yesterday it was talks of peace process and de-escalation.

Next minute, its missile strikes, wayward rockets hitting targets in Poland on the other side of the country from where the fight was reportedly being waged (and advanced) by Ukrainian forces in Kherson, 1000 kilometres away. 

On the flipside, we have a Ukrainian UAV bombing an oil tank near Moscow which is the Ukraine taking the fight to Moscow reportedly.

I have no vested interest, just observing, and hoping that not too many lives are lost, because ultimately, there are innocent people being killed on both sides of these battles, not to mention the resources that could be better used elsewhere.  Would be nice to be able to believe the reports. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 17, 2022, 09:52:04 am
^^
As Hiram W Johnson is reported to have said in 1917, "The first casualty when war comes is truth".
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 17, 2022, 02:21:53 pm
The S-300 and S-400 missile systems have a secondary ground attack function.  It’s just a matter of entering the target’s co-ordinates into the guidance system.

Apparently there have been many ground impacts from SAMs that missed airborne targets.  Some self-destructed just before ground impact, some rained 2,000kg of debris after self-destructing at altitude and others just fell to earth.
It is the case that S-300 can be converted, but it's not an inflight scenario for the S-300 they are configured before launch.

I think it's media speculation about the S-300 with the most commonly used ancient variant only having an SAM range of about 30km, there are other long range variants but they are not the commonly built Russian S-300.

As I understand it sometime back the Ukraine started using NATO supplied munitions, having already exhausted it's Russian built stockpile. It's possible Greece or other NATO Allies have supplied Ukraine with Russian S-300s.

I suspect there is a bit of blame shifting going on, the general public have very little chance of knowing the truth, it's all global politics. It may well be this latest event is a false flag operation designed to drag the Ukraine neighbours into the conflict, or it might be painted as false flag to prevent the public from calling for NATO action against Russia having been provoked by Russia.

I will assert the following, the military unequivocally know the answers to these questions, I doubt you could fire a BB in that area without NATO knowing who pulled the trigger, when, where and at whom, and these missile are metres long and weigh tonnes and have no stealth coating! At night they light up like a Roman Candle, in daylight hours they leave a smoke trail that is about as subtle as a fart in a submarine, and that is without considering all the advanced surveillance hardware that is on the ground around Ukraine borders. But how would we know?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on November 17, 2022, 06:18:11 pm
The collective West is pretty much confirming  that this was a stray S300 missile fired as part of an air defence operation from Ukraine. Ukraine continues to blame the Russians.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on November 17, 2022, 09:43:29 pm
The collective West is pretty much confirming  that this was a stray S300 missile fired as part of an air defence operation from Ukraine. Ukraine continues to blame the Russians.

Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on November 18, 2022, 09:34:12 am
Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Yep, imagine that it turns out that this rocket was fired in that direction on purpose?  Even if you were to argue that they were defending the Ukraine from a Russian strike the map doesn't lie and the direction it needed to be fired in to hit Poland makes for a potential deliberate hit at Poland and trying to paint the Russians as the culprits.

Thing is, there is enough of a grey area there that they could always state that the "west" is saying it was Ukrainian in order to not escalate the response on Russia. 

Very thin line to be walking and dangerous territory.  Imagine for a moment the Russians did this on purpose to paint the Ukrainians in a certain light as a false flag.  Wouldn't be the first time something like this happened.

Either way, NATO needs to be careful.  A stray rocket into Poland is nothing to be concerned about in the scheme of things, even if it were the Russians.  That wouldn't lead to good outcomes and only continued fighting which will only lead to more loss of life and a continuation of this conflict.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on November 18, 2022, 03:43:09 pm
Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Always said the way out of this war is to give Putin a win in something, he wants to be a war hero like Stalin or a star keeper of the Iron curtain like Brezhnev who built up the Russian nuke capabilities , Space programs and instigated/presided over the " detente era" with the USA where Russia was seen on par in terms of world importance.
Putin is only infamous for the failed Ukraine war at this stage.....
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 18, 2022, 04:31:16 pm
Even if you were to argue that they were defending the Ukraine from a Russian strike the map doesn't lie and the direction it needed to be fired in to hit Poland makes for a potential deliberate hit at Poland and trying to paint the Russians as the culprits.
Firstly, I agree, it's clearly about 400km off course to be part of the expected military operations.

But secondly, you can't be sure who fired it and why, it's just not that simple and there really are far more than two options.

The problem is someone somewhere always profits heavily from war, politically or financially, so you can never assume it was one of the registered combatants.

For example, there would be arms dealers sweating on Ukraine being accepted into NATO, they would get a whole new nation as a customer overnight, a customer they currently cannot deal with above board!

There would be NATO members who do not want Ukraine in NATO, so that funding to existing members is not diminished.

Another extreme example, China or North Korea both benefit greatly from any escalation that keeps NATO and the US tied up in the Russia / Ukraine conflict. It's a version of distracting the police while you get on with a dirty deed! You can gain an advantage more than one way, not just by making yourself stronger, but also by weakening an opponent.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 23, 2022, 08:12:54 am
It just shows how poorly informed some of the general public can be, and how we can be at the mercy of governments.

I read today that Putin is making a show of strength on his local media, chest beating about Russia's dominance over the Artic region. But it's a bit odd, because he's basically touting icebreaking capabilities, when there is likely to be hardly any ice to break in coming decades! But I suppose if you are inclined to follow a tyrant then you are likely to think climate change is bogus also!

Or is the information the general public gets in Russia just that poor?

I'd find it hard to believe if not for my first hand experience of the Chinese public media which keeps China's citizens mostly in the dark.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on December 05, 2022, 11:30:35 am
An interesting analysis of the early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its implications for NATO:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

Note that operational security requirements make it testimony rather than an academic study.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on December 05, 2022, 07:52:56 pm
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-reportedly-falls-down-stairs-soils-himself-amid-growing-concern-about-rapidly-declining-health/news-story/c5272f3615de347f04845e771b0a76bb?amp
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on December 05, 2022, 08:17:07 pm
Vertigo?

Who knows.  How believable these reports are anyway.

I maintain we are on a collision course with world war 3, and that most of the attacks we are facing are all in cyber land.

Just got to hope, its not too serious when it all happens in earnest, and my advise to everyone is whilst I wouldnt be doomsday prepping at this stage, ensure you have a grasp on what it takes to grow some food in your back yard just in case.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on December 05, 2022, 08:59:19 pm
I'd take a lot of the Putin health stuff with a grain of salt.
Some of it may be true, but it's just as likely a bit of propaganda.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on December 06, 2022, 10:16:33 am
Some people I know are taking the threat very seriously and have actually stocked up on Iodine tablets. Amazing! Well to me it is.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on December 06, 2022, 01:01:11 pm
Some people I know are taking the threat very seriously and have actually stocked up on Iodine tablets. Amazing! Well to me it is.
Hmm, this isn't radium gas leaking into a basement or caesium in sea water, iodine isn't generally going to help you much beyond giving you some hope for a few hours or days. In reality is a bit of a myth, something of a Cold War era rumour spread to make foot soldiers willing to enter harms way. Take this tablet, you'll be fine!

In fact it's more likely the people who stockpile iodine will end up overdosing on it and harm themselves with iodine poisoning, which ironically leads to thyroid cancer.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on December 06, 2022, 02:09:33 pm
I'm not going to paint anyone as a victim, villain, or anything of recourse, but I just want to highlight that things are only getting worse and whilst this might be a fire across the bows to highlight that Russia does in fact have something to lose here, if I were in the Russian's shoes, I would be hesitant to back away from this conflict (win or lose).

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/explosion-at-nuclear-airbase-just-150-miles-from-moscow-opens-stunning-new-phase-of-war/ar-AA14V1gm?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=285d929cc67941b98dbb1b43f184efa2

If I were in their shoes, rightly or wrongly, I would be infuriated at having had my enemies armed by my own enemies, and would likely only escalate my acts, and then galvanise my resolve not to lose this war, "whatever it takes".

That's a very dangerous for everyone mode for the Russians to be in. 

I do empathise with the Ukrainians under fire.  No one wants to be in a war and i wonder what the true motivation for all of this is.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on December 06, 2022, 03:28:44 pm
I'm not going to paint anyone as a victim, villain, or anything of recourse, but I just want to highlight that things are only getting worse and whilst this might be a fire across the bows to highlight that Russia does in fact have something to lose here, if I were in the Russian's shoes, I would be hesitant to back away from this conflict (win or lose).

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/explosion-at-nuclear-airbase-just-150-miles-from-moscow-opens-stunning-new-phase-of-war/ar-AA14V1gm?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=285d929cc67941b98dbb1b43f184efa2

If I were in their shoes, rightly or wrongly, I would be infuriated at having had my enemies armed by my own enemies, and would likely only escalate my acts, and then galvanise my resolve not to lose this war, "whatever it takes".

That's a very dangerous for everyone mode for the Russians to be in. 

I do empathise with the Ukrainians under fire.  No one wants to be in a war and i wonder what the true motivation for all of this is.

If you were in their shoes Thry, I doubt whether you would have invaded your neighbour's property, even if he had a better pool and veggie garden.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on December 06, 2022, 05:39:31 pm
I'd take a lot of the Putin health stuff with a grain of salt.
Some of it may be true, but it's just as likely a bit of propaganda.
Your take was the same as mine, propoganda.

To me it smacks of schoolboy tactics to defame someone you don't like.

IF it were true, how did it get out?
It wouldn't.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on December 07, 2022, 10:28:27 am
If you were in their shoes Thry, I doubt whether you would have invaded your neighbour's property, even if he had a better pool and veggie garden.

You are not wrong DJC. 

Id probably grow my own veggies, then offer some up in a trade, along with an offer of a BBQ at my place or bringing some drinks over and having a chill at theirs.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on December 07, 2022, 10:58:52 am
You are not wrong DJC. 

Id probably grow my own veggies, then offer some up in a trade, along with an offer of a BBQ at my place or bringing some drinks over and having a chill at theirs.

It’s bad luck Putin doesn’t have a similar mindset!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 07, 2022, 03:17:21 pm
Some people I know are taking the threat very seriously and have actually stocked up on Iodine tablets. Amazing! Well to me it is.
People we know from Krasnodar have left and gone on a long holiday to Turkey.....they are conscripting men outside the ages specified and with no military training. The news theme is Ukraine attacking Russia supported by their Western Nato Allies and the population are fed that dribble and a lot are oblivious to the truth and believe the propaganda.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on December 07, 2022, 03:34:31 pm
People we know from Krasnodar have left and gone on a long holiday to Turkey.....they are conscripting men outside the ages specified and with no military training. The news theme is Ukraine attacking Russia supported by their Western Nato Allies and the population are fed that dribble and a lot are oblivious to the truth and believe the propaganda.

Yep, from what I've heard the Ukrainian military casualties are horrendous. Unfortunately no let up yet in sight - tragic.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on December 07, 2022, 04:10:55 pm
People we know from Krasnodar have left and gone on a long holiday to Turkey.....they are conscripting men outside the ages specified and with no military training. The news theme is Ukraine attacking Russia supported by their Western Nato Allies and the population are fed that dribble and a lot are oblivious to the truth and believe the propaganda.
If you take a moment to stop and truly imagine about what life would like being fed lies, its almost unbelievable and yet...

Its 2022 and to think that some of the largest nations on the planet live in the "dark".
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on December 07, 2022, 05:00:15 pm
The problem is in war you very rarely get the truth from either side, be it our own or the opposition!

If our man Elon Musk had the balls, he could open up something like Starlink making it impossible for anyone like Putin to control the web, but it's a closed system requiring Starlink hardware and encryption. That highlights another problem, it may be that "our side" do not want something like the Starlink genie out of the bottle either! ;)

For example I understand China has already threatened to jam / destroy his satellites if they transmit in Zhongguo, and also place trading constraints in place affecting Tesla.

The very thing that the public perceive as giving ultimate freedom, extreme wealth, is actually making Musk a prisoner to various regimes. You can bet Putin is up to his eyeballs in some of this, and also leveraging influence over the likes of Murdoch and others with influence and power.

In the meantime, Australia keeps on selling off infrastructure and large scale rights to China, Singapore(China), Hancock (USA and China!), Saudi Arabia, etc., etc..
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 07, 2022, 05:41:54 pm
If you take a moment to stop and truly imagine about what life would like being fed lies, its almost unbelievable and yet...

Its 2022 and to think that some of the largest nations on the planet live in the "dark".
The young dont believe the propaganda and dont want to fight especially on foreign soil but when you can convince the rest that its Russia under threat and invasion is imminent you can draw on National Pride to bring the nation together and thats what Putin would love to do. He would love to taunt Ukrainian or Nato troops to enter Russian borders to justify his actions and call on his people to defend their country and be the new Stalin and a war hero.
Hopefully the West can dampen Zelensky"s urge for revenge and let Putin perish as a failed aggressor...