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Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #135
It is a sign of the amount of money we had available to spend on such things too.

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #136
That is a scary indictment of the pathetic nature of our recruiting in that period. No wonder we needed a complete cleanout under Bolton. Maybe he did a better job than I thought making the painful yards to a better future. His reward was to be sacked, a fate I think he always knew was coming from the day he started.

On another note Boekhorst was one of the favourites for the Sandover over here before he did his knee in August. A good WAFL player but completely out of his depth in the AFL but we have had a few of those over the years looking a that list
Boekhorst was rated as a rookie selection by most scribes, not sure what we were thinking when we picked him so early..
There were rumours another team was also keen, but we saved them the embarrassment..

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #137
Not wrong Surfie, when you stuff up when you go hard at the draft it does set you back, every pick was a dud and then we trade in Jaksch and Whiley who were also duds.....
Lost Waite to Nth, traded Garlett out to Melbourne for peanuts, sacked Robbo no return there either, then to top off we picked Tutt in the PSD and fecked up every rookie pick too with nothing of substance coming in via that route either.
We were 0 from about 10-12, in terms of draft moves.....it couldnt get any worse..a monkey with a dart board could have done better than our recruiters.
It was much worse than a random selection would be. Probability theory suggests there should have been at least 2 successes from 12 selections.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #138
Our drafting pre SOS was abhorrent. From 2014 to as far back as the Yarra draft of 2008, we drafted/rookied 29 players, only 3 players remain on AFL lists (Cripps, Holman and Robbo who has seemingly retired).
I can't format tables for crap on this site but here it is anyway (for you enjoyment)
Year   Rnd   Pick   Team   Player   Where are they now   Games Played
2014   1   19   Carlton   Blaine Boekhorst       25
2014   2   28   Carlton   Dillon Viojo-Rainbow       0
2014   4   60   Carlton   Clem Smith       7
2014   4   63   Carlton   Jayden Foster       0
2013   1   13   Carlton   Patrick Cripps   Carlton   159
2013   3   39   Carlton   Cameron Giles       0
2013   3   51   Carlton   Nicholas Holman   Gold Coast   9
2012   1   11   Carlton   Troy Menzel       44
2012   2   35   Carlton   Tom Temay       0
2012   3   54   Carlton   Nicholas Graham      
2011   1   22   Carlton   Joshua Bootsma       14
2011   2   44   Carlton   Sam Rowe       100
2011   3   62   Carlton   Dylan Buckley FS       41
2010   1   18   Carlton   Matthew Watson       23
2010   2   34   Carlton   Patrick McCarthy       1
2010   2   42   Carlton   Luke Mitchell       1
2010   4   67   Carlton   Andrew McInnes       17
2010   4   70   Carlton   Nicholas Duigan       43
2010   5   85   Carlton   Jeff Garlett R       155
2010   6   99   Carlton   David Ellard R       55
2009   1   12   Carlton   Kane Lucas       42
2009   3   43   Carlton   Marcus Davies       17
2009   4   59   Carlton   Rohan Kerr       0
2009   5   72   Carlton   Sam Jacobs R       204
2009   6   83   Carlton   Aaron Joseph R       50
2008   1   6   Carlton   Christopher Yarran       119
2008   3   40   Carlton   Mitch Robinson   Brisbane   247
2008   5   65   Carlton   Rhys O'Keeffe       3
2008   6   80   Carlton   Caleb Tiller       0

A few of the best picks there ended up at other clubs.  Robbo ended up a 250 game player. Jacobs over 200. Joesph, Ellard, Graham and Rowe were ok given where they were picked. Levi, who is not mentioned, who as good pick at rookie pick 44. Won't often find genius's there where they were selected and couldn't be expected to carry the club to glory.  That's the nicest I can come up with, as when you look at it that is nothing short of a disaster. Bower, not mentioned, wouldn't have been too bad if he wasn't picked at 18.

Doesn't Cripps stand out!


Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #140
A few of the best picks there ended up at other clubs.  Robbo ended up a 250 game player. Jacobs over 200. Joesph, Ellard, Graham and Rowe were ok given where they were picked. Levi, who is not mentioned, who as good pick at rookie pick 44. Won't often find genius's there where they were selected and couldn't be expected to carry the club to glory.  That's the nicest I can come up with, as when you look at it that is nothing short of a disaster. Bower, not mentioned, wouldn't have been too bad if he wasn't picked at 18.

Doesn't Cripps stand out!
Bower was entertaining, it was like sideshow everytime he played, normally you would be yelling and screaming at a player who made so many mistakes but in his case you just laughed.

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #141
To take data from the previous page:
Year   Rnd   Pick   Team   Player   Where are they now   Games Played
2014   1   19   Carlton   Blaine Boekhorst       25
2014   2   28   Carlton   Dillon Viojo-Rainbow       0
2014   4   60   Carlton   Clem Smith       7
2014   4   63   Carlton   Jayden Foster       0
2013   1   13   Carlton   Patrick Cripps   Carlton   159
2013   3   39   Carlton   Cameron Giles       0
2013   3   51   Carlton   Nicholas Holman   Gold Coast   9
2012   1   11   Carlton   Troy Menzel       44
2012   2   35   Carlton   Tom Temay       0
2012   3   54   Carlton   Nicholas Graham      
2011   1   22   Carlton   Joshua Bootsma       14
2011   2   44   Carlton   Sam Rowe       100
2011   3   62   Carlton   Dylan Buckley FS       41
2010   1   18   Carlton   Matthew Watson       23
2010   2   34   Carlton   Patrick McCarthy       1
2010   2   42   Carlton   Luke Mitchell       1
2010   4   67   Carlton   Andrew McInnes       17
2010   4   70   Carlton   Nicholas Duigan       43
2010   5   85   Carlton   Jeff Garlett R       155
2010   6   99   Carlton   David Ellard R       55
2009   1   12   Carlton   Kane Lucas       42
2009   3   43   Carlton   Marcus Davies       17
2009   4   59   Carlton   Rohan Kerr       0
2009   5   72   Carlton   Sam Jacobs R       204
2009   6   83   Carlton   Aaron Joseph R       50
2008   1   6   Carlton   Christopher Yarran       119
2008   3   40   Carlton   Mitch Robinson   Brisbane   247
2008   5   65   Carlton   Rhys O'Keeffe       3
2008   6   80   Carlton   Caleb Tiller       0
Of the 29 players selected above, only one has been a champion, Patrick Cripps.
Only 2 were top players at other clubs, Sam Jacobs and Mitch Robinson.
Of the rest:
[1]   Sam Rowe could be considered a success. He was a stalwart in bad times and should have played 100 for us, instead of having to go to St Kilda to do it. He also overcame cancer to be the player he was.
[2]   Nick Guigan could have been a success, but for his knees. He was the sort of leader we were crying out for.
[3]   Chris Yarran could have been anything. It was a real pity to see him spiral out of control, as he had more talent than most players could dream of having.
[4]   Dylan Buckley, as a F/S, wasn’t a total failure. He may not have been the player we wanted, but we would have selected him under any of our recruitment teams.
[5]   Aaron Joseph was a reasonable player for the pick he was. He did a job. The same could be said of David Ellard.
[6]   Jeff Garlett … the more I think about him, the more disappointed I become. He had his flaws as a player, but giving him away was rank stupidity.

The other thing you may note is the preponderance of guys who were injured. Guys like McCarthy and Mitchell were recruited with injury problems. Even guys like Rowe had to overcome incredible adversity just to get on the field. McInnes and Duigan were ruined by injuries after looking the goods.

The other thing of note is the number of total spuds, serious recruiting errors. Taking Boekhorst at pick 19 was horrendous, but Josh Bootsma was little better. Kane Lucas was rated highly as a junior, but he was also a major fail. Tom Temay at pick 35 was another serious blunder. Of his draft cohort, the one I wanted us to avoid was Clem Smith.

This period of recruiting will go down in history as one of the poorest from any team ever.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #142
It was much worse than a random selection would be. Probability theory suggests there should have been at least 2 successes from 12 selections.
I went to the effort of modelling our success mathematically. Assuming the players were selected randomly, the only way I could get an expected value as bad as our actual selections was to have the probability of success equalling 1 in 20. That suggested that expected number to be 1.45 players. Rounding gives us 1.

A probability of 1 in 15 suggests we should have got 1.93 players, which would be rounded to 2.

This model is a random selection. The selection process should not be random: most recruiters would have a good knowledge of the draft cohort, especially the top few. This sort of outcome is incredibly poor.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #143
Looking at how much of a lotto the draft is I would trade for experience every time now.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #144
I wonder how many failures on that list would have ended up as half-decent footballers if they had been drafted by a Geelong or Sydney with a functional development program and an internal VFL side.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #145
I wonder how many failures on that list would have ended up as half-decent footballers if they had been drafted by a Geelong or Sydney with a functional development program and an internal VFL side.

:'(
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #146
I wonder how many failures on that list would have ended up as half-decent footballers if they had been drafted by a Geelong or Sydney with a functional development program and an internal VFL side.

...or the present day CFC culture?
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

 

Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #147
Looking at how much of a lotto the draft is I would trade for experience every time now.
Geelong tell that story better than any other team in the competition.

Everyone likes to call them dads army, but they have really smashed it out of the park with their approach.

North Melbourne were doing alright too until they stopped being able to attract a decent player.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson


Re: Brownlow Medal 2022

Reply #149
Geelong tell that story better than any other team in the competition.

Everyone likes to call them dads army, but they have really smashed it out of the park with their approach.

North Melbourne were doing alright too until they stopped being able to attract a decent player.
Probably an art to picking the right dads and I think the Cats have worked on the theory that the odds have to turn your way if you keep making finals and giving yourself a chance.
The other thing which I have said before that favours them is essentially being a regional club ,they have that lure of lifestyle and return home factor along with virtually their own U18 team(Falcons) where most of those kids want to play with the Cats given the choice and the good ones who get taken by other clubs are always teased by the Cats to come back home.. You add strong local comps where they get also get good players from ie Stewart, Atkins, Henry and its a bit easier to keep the momentum going so you dont have to keep hitting up good players in the draft. Great management and recruiting helps for sure...who would have had money on them turning the troublesome Stengle into a AA player, his career was fecked but some how they made him come good...maybe Eddie was the key.