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Russian Ukraine War

I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.

Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.

I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?

It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.

$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.

Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #1
I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.

Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.

I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?

It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.

$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.

Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?

Most of the discussion on the war has taken place in the General Discussion thread, but maybe it's better to have a distinct thread.

I guess the main problem with that idea is the logistical issues involved.
Russians leaving the front line are heading in the direction of home.
Crossing into Ukraine held territory would be a fairly dangerous and risky proposition.
Letting the participants know of the benefits would also be difficult...there'd be apprehension as to how legitimate such a scheme was.
And probably most importantly it would mean leaving family behind.

The situation is poised at a particularly dangerous point.
A possibly ailing Putin is backed in a corner facing pressure from Ukranian advances, right wing hawks who want him to go a lot harder, and now growing anti-war sentiments amongst the general popualtion.
If he is in fact terminally ill (nothing concrete, just observations he's not well) he becomes more dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Referendums in the next week in breakaway sections of Ukraine will almost certainly vote for incorporation into Russia.
Attacks on these areas by Ukrainians then become attacks on Russia in Russian eyes.
A declaration of war against Ukraine rather than the limp 'special military' operation may follow.
The threat of the use of a tactical nuclear device becomes an possibility.

Does NATO then get involved with some response?
The problem is that the Russian ground forces have had such difficulty in Ukraine that they would certainly struggle against a full NATO force should they become involved.
The Russian 'hordes' are not going to sweep across Europe, they never were.
That leaves the Russians with a scary option...they wont be able to fight such a war in a conventional manner.

The unknown in a wider conflict is the reaction of countries like China ( I suspect they'd be happy to sit back and pick up the pieces.)


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #2
Referenda are planned over the next few days to incorporate the mostly Russian speaking areas of the Donbas and around Herson etc into the Russian Federation. This will fundamentally change the picture. I  understand that the Russian troops being mobilised now are mainly ex military who will serve in Russia itself, freeing the regular army to be deployed in Ukraine.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #3
The proposal is fine if you are an orphan but if you have family in Russia…

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #4
Referenda are planned over the next few days to incorporate the mostly Russian speaking areas of the Donbas and around Herson etc into the Russian Federation. This will fundamentally change the picture. I  understand that the Russian troops being mobilised now are mainly ex military who will serve in Russia itself, freeing the regular army to be deployed in Ukraine.
I have a friend in Russia and this is how he has described the situation.
He is an engineer but hasn't been asked to join anything.
It's more of a home guard scenario, the propaganda they get fed is Ukraine being aggressive towards Russia and them needing to defend their soil not the other way around.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #5
Poor Russia, always the victim…
How to be a despot 101.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #6
Poor Russia, always the victim…
How to be a despot 101.
It's the conditioning and mentality, they still have regular military parades celebrating the 2nd world war win over Germany.
Villages have well kept monuments to fallen war heroes, it's the world against Russia and that's how the oldies still view it.The younger folk are different and don't buy all the propaganda and there is a real divide with lots of Gopniks trying to act like kids from the west, they would be the conscripts dropping their weapons and running home..

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #7
The BBC News reports varied responses to the thousands of Russian men trying to flee the country to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine:

Quote
Queues have sprung up along Russia's border as men attempt to leave the country to avoid a military call-up for the war in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation on Wednesday, which could see 300,000 people summoned to serve in the war.

The Kremlin says reports of fighting-age men fleeing are exaggerated.

But on the border with Georgia, miles-long queues of vehicles have formed including men trying to escape the war.

One man, who did not want to be named, told the BBC's Rayhan Demytrie he had grabbed his passport and headed to the border, without packing anything else, immediately after President' Putin's announcement - because he fell into the group that could potentially be sent to the war.

Some witnesses estimated the queue of cars at the Upper Lars checkpoint to be some 5km (3 miles) long, while another group said it had taken seven hours to get across the border. Video from the scene showed some drivers leaving their cars or trucks temporarily in standstill traffic.

Georgia is one of the few neighbouring countries that Russians can enter without needing to apply for a visa. Finland, which shares a 1,300km (800 mile) border with Russia, does require a visa for travel, and also reported an increase in traffic overnight - but said it was at a manageable level.

Other destinations reachable by air - such as Istanbul, Belgrade or Dubai - have seen ticket prices skyrocket immediately after the military call-up was announced, with some destinations sold out completely. Turkish media have reported a large spike in one-way ticket sales, while remaining flights to non-visa destinations can cost thousands of euros.

Germany's interior minister signalled on Thursday that Russians fleeing the draft would be welcome in her country.

Nancy Faeser said deserters threatened by "severe repression" would receive protection on a case-by-case basis, following security checks. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic struck a different tone, saying they would not offer fleeing Russians refuge.

I guess it's understandable that countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic are fearful of an influx of Russian conscription refugees.  Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland recently banned all Russian tourists on the basis that Russians should not be enjoying democracy and freedom in Europe while Russia attacks those values in Ukraine.

More significant than the mobilisation announced in Putin's decree this week was the indefinite extension of all current military service contracts.  It is thought that Putin was told his entire professional army was going to quit at the end of their contracts to avoid spending winter in trenches being bombarded by HIMARS.

The West's provision of military hardware to Ukraine is a key to the successes of the Ukraine military.  Diverting funds away from that support could tip the balance back to Moscow.  However, I would be very surprised if the expenditure on military hardware isn't closely matched by covert expenditure on destabilising the Russian regime, encouraging deserters, and supporting opposition to Putin's war.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #8
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #9
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #10
That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.

The world order is changing before our eyes Lods and stakes are high. Some will win some will lose and some will be sacrificed. Very  unpredictable times.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #11
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #12
Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…
Putin wants to be remembered in history as a war hero like Stalin,he wants a win and his part in Russian history. With his health fecked he wants to do it before the Hellhounds come for him and that makes him dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Toss of the coin whether he goes nuke or the West via Ukraine offer a deal that allows him to withdraw with some dignity so he puts his toys back in the box.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #13
EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #14
EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.
Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.