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Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #15
Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.

No matter what Putin settles on there will be underground Ukraine forces that will continually eat away at and undermine any captured cities/towns (no doubt with support from other nations/CIA). Poorly conceived and executed plan from Putin... he thought he'd have all of the Ukraine in weeks. But as others have mentioned, a lunatic with his finger on the button backed into a corner... He's also getting increased pressure at home, to further corner him. Locking up thousands of your own protesting citizens seldom ends well.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

 

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #16
Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #17
Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.

Despots often don’t reason too well though…

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #18
Really really long post here, but because I have a number of close friends in Russia, I can't really post too much publicly in case it in some way it impacts them, but well there is far less chance something here gets read as opposed to on Facebook/Twitter etc.

It doesn't matter whether Putin is deathly ill or not (I don't personally believe that he is), what matters is the fact that if he loses this war outright, he is ousted, exiled, jailed or murdered ('dies peacefully in his sleep').

Someone mentioned that he wants to be remembered like Stalin and this is pretty accurate, or even more so like Peter, Catherine or Vladimir the "Greats". Russia/Ukraine has a long and complicated history, but this history only serves his purpose to be remembered forever. Obviously Kiev was the jewel in the crown of the Kievan Rus for a good few hundred years, but the ruling family were not actually local originally in any case. Kievan Rus was broken in many principalities, Moscow being a minor one amongst them. But the ruling class of Moscow did not represent the general population of Kiev and the areas now known as Ukraine. It does however play hard at the heart of Russians who truly believe Ukraine is "Russian" land and always has been. Winning this territory back for Mother Russia would be wildly popular with the Russian population.

In regards to mobilization, some things that it is not, that the west was buying
- It is not only 300,000 people
- It is not only reservists
- It is not excluding people deemed 'unfit' for work.. As  an example of this, I know of a man in his 40s with 2 young children to care for that presented a certificate that should have excluded him when he was drafted. The response of the recruited was "Do you think I give a f**k about your certificate?"
- They will not spend 3-5 months training to be battle ready for the war, they are mostly cannon fodder.
- Most Russians called up will go and fight in Ukraine, they won't desert.

Their method of rounding up is quite comprehensive, with military surrounding all exits to a town, then the recruiters going in and basically rounding up as many men as they can. All business are being asked to supply a list of all males that work for them and their suitability to perform in the war.


As mentioned, most Russians will NOT desert. They are unhappy to be called up, but see it as a duty they must fulfill if called upon, or see it as a hopeless situation to try and desert. Remember, despite Russia not having a death penalty, it has been made clear to many in the armed forces that they will be shot if they desert or if they retreat without orders.

As for Putin and the nuclear option, well does anyone have the slightest doubt that Hitler would have used a Nuclear weapon, even knowing it would cause a nuclear war that killed everyone? In Putin's eyes, I have little doubt he is seriously considering using a nuclear weapon and even starting a full blown nuclear war, if he can't have what he wants. For him it is seriously a consideration as an option when put up against the option of withdrawing his forces from Ukraine and being seen as weak in the eyes of the Russian public.

Whilst support for the war in Russia is nowhere near the 90%+ levels that a vote would suggest it is, the number is still very high (above 60% for sure and likely above 70%). A lot of Russian people believe the internet is full of misinformation and propaganda from the west aimed at bringing Mighty Russia to it's knees, to subjugate the country through misinformation and dissent. They truly believe what they hear on state broadcast television is much more accurate than what they can get on the internet, it is a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" that large swathes of the country suffer from.

As for regime change ONLY Russians will decide if there will be regime change. There is a very very slight chance the populace breaks out into a revolution, but this is minuscule. The only realistic chance of regime change is if the elite decide on it, but even this is extremely difficult. If you are suspected, you will die through committing suicide from a hospital/apartment/hotel window. The last thing of course, is that Putin is not the most extreme person within the Russian elite. History shows us extreme people often rise to the very top, because others are so fearful of repercussions if they oppose them, so there is a quite reasonable chance that if Putin was ousted/died etc, that a more extreme person could come in and lead the country. The very hated ex president/prime minister is one example of someone who has been strongly advocating for the use of nuclear weapons, this could be to try and fix his public appeal as he is reviled in Russia, but it might just be that he is also a lunatic and would come in and press buttons to get the job done.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #19
Gees that's just uplifting reading. 
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #20
Its war.

Propaganda is king in war.  That was the number one lesson I learnt from studying history.  That, and the victors are always the heroes, and to the defeated goes the title of tyrant or aggressor. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #21
Yep
The propoganda machines on both sides are in full swing.
History is written by the winner.

Be careful of anything you read from both sides.

The Ukranians seem to be doing well.
The Russians are even acknowledging this.
Russia is clearly the 'military' aggressor in this conflict.
The devastation in Ukranian cities is indisputable.
Rockets are flying into Ukranian cities, They're not flying into Moscow.
I'd naturally put more faith in the anti-Russian press.

But don't take for gospel everything from the Western side.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #22
Yep
The propoganda machines on both sides are in full swing.
History is written by the winner.

Be careful of anything you read from both sides.

The Ukranians seem to be doing well.
The Russians are even acknowledging this.
Russia is clearly the 'military' aggressor in this conflict.
The devastation in Ukranian cities is indisputable.
Rockets are flying into Ukranian cities, They're not flying into Moscow.
I'd naturally put more faith in the anti-Russian press.

But don't take for gospel everything from the Western side.


Yes all of that is true.

The innocent people who live in these places are the only victims too.

Only thing I wonder is how do we arrive at a situation where what was effectively a conflict between two neighbour nations, has somehow impacted everyone across the globe, particularly the day to day costs of living and general economic well being.  The two may not be mutually exclusive, given the last few years fiscal policy was always going to result in the hyperinflated economy we are witnessing today, but it truly is fascinating how our global money markets have gone into meltdown over this.   

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #23
Russian Street Talk Channel

This channel is just a 'fun' Russian youtube channel, it has a lot of street talk on it.
The video I have linked is from a regional area and is asking people how they feel about mobilization.
Now looking at the channel they often ask quite controversial questions and it is suprising that they have not been locked up, but what is quite depressing is the responses at times. Sometimes it is uplifting to see that not everyone buys into the propaganda machine, but it is quite clear many do, especially the older generation, but not exclusively.

Of course the west lies as well and also makes mistakes in their analysis of Russia and it's people, I think this is largely because they don't fully understand the Russian  psyche in a lot of situations. Remember Russian people throughout all of their history have never actually been free and made definitive choices on their future. The one exception 'may' have been the election of Yeltsin, but generally speaking things have been either openly under the leaders control (Russian Empire and USSR) or the leaders have tried to pretend Russian's had a choice with recent elections, but of course all negative press is under constant attack and lives are in danger, or the opposition is simply arrested on charges and locked away, thereby forbidding them from running again in an election.

But anyway it is a pretty good channel, it is one of many that I watch when i have a few moments and just looking for something to do.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #24
Don't be surprised to see another serious push towards Kiev, probably beginning from Belarus again. Stretching Ukraine's troops as widely and as thinly as possible is very likely one of the aims of the mobilization.

What I struggle with a lot is why the west continues to be bullied by Russia. Western governments have every right to stabilize a country at the request of that countries legitimate government, but because it is against Russia, the countries are very loathe to do so and in the mean time 10s of 1000s are dying. By enforcing a no fly zone, by attacking areas of opposition troops (especially because the sham referendums) they had every opportunity to push Russia completely out of the country and make Russia need to reassess the situation, it would have also sent a strong message to any other countries considering the same. We only need to look back to Kuwait and the swift response there, because of course Iraq is not a nuclear equipped superpower so the decision was easy.

Anyway on a slightly different now, I have done a translation of an excerpt from a memoir written by a Russian soldier who has since defected to France and I think his book is published or being published.

But I thought it is interesting to share, it shows some Russian's really do wonder why they are there, unfortunately asking these questions for most Russian's really is the same as asking if your own parents or children are evil, you simply cannot process this, there must be a better answer.

My translation is a mix of my own and Google's, my Russian is not fantastic and because of how they phrase things, it needed to be paraphrased a little, but the general gist is correct.

Quote from: ZOV - Pavel Filatyev

If we turn to sterotypes then the answer will be that I am a military man, a paratrooper, I am
obliged to follow orders and do not have the right to chicken out and not go to war when it
starts; I am obliged to serve for the good of my country and to protect the people of Russia.
But then common sense begins to argue and ask questions.

"Did Ukraine threaten Russia?"

Everyone says that Ukraine wanted to join NATO, but do we attack every country that wants to join NATO?
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland are already in NATO. Finland is joining NATO now. Our plane was shot down over TUrkey not long ago, but we quickly forgot this, we have a dispute with Japan about the Kuril Islands. Hell the US borders us to the East. But all this for some reason is not a pretext for starting a war. We're not attacking them, or is that just for now?

It turns out that it is not the reason.

"If we had not attacked Ukraine, would they have attacked us?"

Many echo the TV, saying that we launched a preemptive strike, but how can you believe that Ukraine would have attacked Russia, Crimea, if the armed forces of Ukraine could not hold their own borders? They wage this war on the defensive, suffering huge losses. Everyone knows that defensive warfare is easier than attacking. How could this country (Ukraine), which can hardly defend itself, slowly losing its territories, attack? And would it not be easier for our army to strengthen the borders and defenses around Ukraine and, in the even of an attack, meet the enemy on the defensive, break their offensive capabilities and go on the counterattack? Indeed, in this case, our losses would have been much less, and the world community would not be able to accuse Russia of aggression and "condemn" our country as an occupier and invader. It turns out that the Ukraine was going to attack Russia was also a lie?

"Was Ukraine overrun by Nazism and did they infringe on the Russian population (of Ukraine)?"

I talked with people who were in Ukraine before the war, and, oddly enough, no one was able to remember a specific case where someone was infringed upon or offended them for having a Russian surname or for not being able to speak Ukrainian. And some isolated cases of domestic conflicts on ethnic grounds can be found in every country in the world.

"Did we attack to save the DNR and LNR?"

What is the DNR and LNR? Indeed, in fact and legality, these are two regions that were part of Ukraine and then rebelled and decided to become independent. Isn't this the same as if Karelia wanted to join Finland, Smolensk region to Lithuania, Rostov region to Ukraine, Yakutia to USA or Khabarovsk to China, isn't this the same? Why are we defending the LDNR? Did it make the ordinary people in the Donbas feel better? After all, in the Russian Federation we would not have tolerated this, just as we didn't give Chechnya indedependence, paying for it with thousands of lives. Why did we arrange the same without neighbours? But at the same time, the leaders of the LPR and DPR, despite the support of the Russian government were unable to provide their residence with social security and safety, which is why people fled en masse to Russia, Crimea and Ukraine. In conversation with people who fled the war in Donetsk and Luhansk, I did not hear about the cases of Nazism that are shouted about from our media. But all as one spoke about the fact that they fled from the war and that they just want to live and work in peace. If we tried in every possible way to help the people of Donetsk and Luhansk, then why didn't we just limit ourselves to providing Russia passports to everyone? We have plenty of empty land that no human hands have touched, please let them come, live and work with us. Why do we need the territory of a foreign state? What for? Are we short on land? People really believe that all those who wanted to live in Russia have not yet received Russian passports and moved to us?
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #25
In a charming new development, Russian businesses are handing out leaflets to staff on what to do if their city is attacked. When one considers that even the government understand 100% that this is only possible if they use nuclear weapons and in fact if they start a nuclear war (rather than tactical nuclear weapons), then this is more than a little bit of a worry
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #26
I just came across a photograph of a bog-standard Russian T-62 main battle tank captured by Ukrainian forces.  That's bog-standard as in how it rolled off the assembly line between 1961 and 1975; no upgrades, additional armour or modifications.  The T-62 is roughly the equivalent of the British Chieftain (withdrawn from service in 1995) and the German Leopard 1 (withdrawn from Australian service in 2004) although the Chieftain was a superior tank.

The Russians seem reluctant to deploy their T-90 MBTs in any numbers and their most recent MBT, the T-14, seems to be limited to military parades.  Relying on museum pieces to counter NATO's (not to mention Israel's and Australia's) latest military hardware isn't going to work. 

You can't infer much from a photograph of one captured tank but, coupled with Russian setbacks and their withdrawal from Kherson, it seems that Putin's senseless war may be coming to an end.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #27
I just came across a photograph of a bog-standard Russian T-62 main battle tank captured by Ukrainian forces.  That's bog-standard as in how it rolled off the assembly line between 1961 and 1975; no upgrades, additional armour or modifications.  The T-62 is roughly the equivalent of the British Chieftain (withdrawn from service in 1995) and the German Leopard 1 (withdrawn from Australian service in 2004) although the Chieftain was a superior tank.

The Russians seem reluctant to deploy their T-90 MBTs in any numbers and their most recent MBT, the T-14, seems to be limited to military parades.  Relying on museum pieces to counter NATO's (not to mention Israel's and Australia's) latest military hardware isn't going to work. 

You can't infer much from a photograph of one captured tank but, coupled with Russian setbacks and their withdrawal from Kherson, it seems that Putin's senseless war may be coming to an end.

I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #28
I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.
Do we really think Putin (or anyone else for that matter) is insane enough to go Nuclear? I personally don't think anyone is, perhaps I'm just naïve.
2017 - 16th
2018 - Wooden Spoon
2019 - 16th
2020 - dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021 - Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022 - Real Deal or more of the same?
2023 - "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #29
I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.

Zelensky was in Kherson today...
You would think if Russian intelligence was any good it would have been the perfect time for a strike, (not necesarily nuclear)
It's all a bit bizarre.