Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Reply #430 –
This isn't going to be resolved in days.
Stating today is low or tomorrow will be high are just maybe scenarios. To comment with any certainty you can only look retrospectively at a period of weeks or months.
If you are lucky enough to develop a model that works against the historical data you might be able to predict a few days out like the weather, but that reliable model isn't coming before this is all over because it needs the historical data before it can be formulated.
Stating that today was lower, is a bit like climate change deniers stating that today was a record low after a year that averaged high!
From the PMs and Health Ministers speech today (Courtesy of HS)
"In what Health Minister Greg Hunt has called “an early positive sign”, the rate of increase in coronavirus cases has gone from around 25 per cent to 30 per cent per day a week ago to around 13 per cent to 15 per cent today"
I'd say cleverer and more qualified people than me or you are looking at all this info and making calls based on it. All it says is that the measures implemented to date have made some progress.
Italy had less cases than us up to Feb 20. Their cases grew rapidly from Feb 21 surpassing us and everyone else.