Carlton Supporters Club

A Virologist on the ABC last night suggested that the CoVid19 virus in structure is weakening to what it was back at the start.
Growths rate in the lab is still the same but it isnt attacking good cells the way it was and that is a good chance it will become weaker and turn on itself and thats how the virus will be eradicated maybe even before a decent vaccine is available.
There are reports of re-infection in people even months later so the antibodies either dont remain or their are new/changed strains which isnt going to make finding a vaccine any easier.

Wrong in one critical aspect Thry. And I'll try and post the chart (a jpg)! Any hints?

Saying the numbers were 'out of control' is simply emotional rhetoric.

The actual (and modelled) effective reproduction rate (DHHS data) had already peaked and was heading south before even Stage 3 restrictions were reintroduced.

And, in fact, that number was comfortably below the 'magic' 1.0 mark (around 27 July) WELL BEFORE Stage 4 restrictions. Let alone allowing any lag time for 'effect'.

Fact. And essentially confirmed by third party modelling.

So, the only reason for doing it was political.

As to the efficacy of lockdowns and other NPIs - the latest study certainly makes one's eyebrows rise!

https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-and-mask-mandates-do-not-lead-to-reduced-covid-transmission-rates-or-deaths-new-study-suggests/

@Fly....
The reason for going to stage 4 was not because it was running away, but because the decline was going too slowly that it would extend stage 3 for longer than required.

Stage 4 was planned so that stage 3 would be required for less time than had stage 4 not been implemented at all.

So that leads us to the other question? Why no decline since masks and stage 4??

At a guess....its still too soon to tell.
At another guess....stage 4 was not a huge step up compated from stage 2 -> stage 3.
And a final guess.....people simply are not buying into it anymore. The backlash over this has been far in excess to anything i predicted. The anti-maskers, anti-government, COVID conspirators etc are growing in numbers and its ruining it for everyone.

So....how much of this is Dans fault? 
SFA

With all due respect FB, nothing you have stated here actually discusses any point I was making so you are disagreeing with what point that I have stated?

FWIW, I dont speak from public numbers either.  I speak from my anecdotal experience of what I am seeing at the health network I work at.

I.e.  6 weeks ago, they were actually reverting back to normal at the health network I work at.  Our covid cases being admitted were low, and elective surgery was back on the table.  So much so, that the dedicated covid ward had been halved. 

Meanwhile, It was only last week, that one of our hospitals went live with a "clean and dirty" zone in their emergency department (an indictment on whoever is running the show there) but I think they were funnelling a lot of patients elsewhere until the numbers jumped in presentations at all sites.

The data at state, national, international level can paint whatever picture people want it to, but I want to point something out.

Most of the time, statistics are a lagging indicator.

What our management and Chief Medical Officer has been stating, is that the jump in numbers of positive cases don't lead to an increase of hospitalisation with anything but a 10 day lag time, and everyone started feeling very uncomfortable the minute we got to 100 positive cases per day and the discomfort wasnt seen in the network I work at for at least another fortnight.

Even now, there is a greater number of COVID positive patients at our hospital than there was even 1 month ago.  Why else do you think we are hearing about Peninsula health having 600 staff on furlough now?

The biggest problem?

We are a population of 5 million people (roughly across the city).  Our current total of positive cases is roughly 18714.  Our current Active cases is at 3300 odd.  Our deaths are sitting at 485, and our hospitals are under considerable strain with respect to their staffing already.  We have a very small sample number of what this virus can and cannot do, and I am not even speaking about that.

We can go with the open slather approach, let COVID run rampant, have most of our hospitals unable to be staffed, and then have stroke patients, dialysis patients, cancer patients, etc go into hospital for a "standard" health problem, and then have complications from their admission by contracting Covid whilst they are in there.

Its a very short sighted based on public viewpoint, to turn around and quote numbers, without seeing how this can quickly run away from us, and that is entirely the point of masks and lockdowns.  Its not necessarily there to stop the spread.  They actually prevent the behaviour that will cause the spread.  I.e. masks are uncomfortable, so less people put themselves in situations where they must wear one, therefore the mask works because it deters a behaviour that would otherwise cause people to spread the virus around.

Even our testing numbers dont tell a story.  We have incidents of people being tested 4 times, walking away happy as larry after a few weeks developing symptoms and coming back with a positive result shocked.  The reality?  They got sick somewhere after their last test.  Therefore take the millions of tests performed, quarter the number, and you are closer to the number of people actually tested to achieve a positive result.

Do the stats you quote show any of the above data?

But again, the gradient did not increase post Stage 3 lock down, even after allowing a lag.

And before masks.

Dan's fault? 100%.

Let's be frank, if the government was a corporate, and Dopey Dan the CEO, he would have been removed by the Board months ago.

He has presided over the greatest public health disaster in Australian history.

A staggering cost of 100s of lives (already, more into the future from suicide, DV, increased crime) and a massive economic cost to boot.

Need I go on?

The number of suicide deaths in Victoria during the coronavirus pandemic has not risen, according to data from the Coroners Court of Victoria.

State Coroner Judge John Cain says the court plans to release monthly suicide data to open up the conversation about suicide prevention.

@LP....
So why is it typical for R0 to drop? Surely its a constant?

When you are talking about the gradient increasing, surely you mean decreasing?

The gradient has decreased since stage 3, masks and with lag, stage 4 too. Perhaps not as much as you'd hope, but i said that had to do with the differences between stage 3 and 4 being minimal.

Stage 2->Stage 3 took 1 million cars off the road.
Stage 3->Stage 4 took 250k off the road.

We can not expect to see the same drop off between stages because the expected result is not the same. Its not a linear correlation.

As for the 100's of lives Dan has 'caused' from suicide and what not.....long bow there. We could do nothing like the US and cost PLENTY more than that via Covid.

If you want to accuse Dan of anything its being overly cautious.
Given the alternative, i think its acceptable.

Perhaps, above all things, this pandemic has demonstrated how brittle our health networks are - physical and mental health. How under resourced they are. Perhaps like the military we really should have 'reserves' of medical folks / mental health professionals and physical locations ready to handle major / sudden increases.

Most of us are fully aware that our mental health resources are under-funded to an embarrassing level and like our hospitals the existing levels are already inadequate and vulnerable so when a pandemic comes along they're simply fckd (a very effective technical medical term  ). And we appreciate that with systems already stretched they too easily fold hence doing everything to 'flatten' curves of admission to minimize a horrible potential that could have been avoided in the first place... with vision, common sense and health care priority.

3 Leos made an extremely important point, one based on fact and one incredibly relevant - when the inadequate system is suddenly stretched by a huge increase in admissions what happens to other urgent medical situations - the treatments 3 Leos mentioned?

I would add, who else gets pushed a little down the line? Who ends up just neglected enough to jeopardize their health further? Who replaces the front line medical folks who get the pandemic? How many 'elective surgeries' are going to become emergencies because of delays stretching to months?

And to pick up on the good points The Flying Lad from 77 made, and perhaps stretch them a little further - I wonder what kinds of results we would get in a bad influenza season, call it Satan Flu for dramatic effect, and test squillions of folks? Are we likely to come up with similar figures to C-19 - in pure numbers and fatality rates and stresses to existing medical resources?

(Just to extend upon the mental health aspect re suicides owing to lockdown - it's a reality and a tragedy, however, if our mental health departments and institutions were far better funded from the get go these folks would likely have the support they need to get through a lockdown).

FWIW....
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/suicide-rates-not-affected-by-covid-19/12601632?

FWIW....
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/suicide-rates-not-affected-by-covid-19/12601632?

Yes, I thought you'd pick up the incorrect gradient comment, sure it's a negative slope blah, blah but you know full well what I meant, just couldn't help yourself.

The rest of your commentary is nothing but emotional BS.

The drop off - there is none. Invalid comment sorry.

Cars on roads stat? You're running with that? Smoked a number tonight?

Accusing Dan.

He's hung himself. Doubt he'll be in Parliament by Christmas.

You're another with this Armageddon alternative logic. Lose it, it's unscientific.

You're another with this Armageddon alternative logic. Lose it, it's unscientific.

No one believes that.

Couldn't help myself??

I'm trying to make sense of your ramblings.
If you are confusing up with down, then what hope do i have finding the logic in your posts?

Cars on road stats, is an example of the effect on what the difference between stages should reflect in the numbers.
Which compared to what you used......ie nothing....is not worth poo-pooing.

No drop off? So the numbers are not going down?? OK. No SIGNIFICANT drop off, perhaps, but it only takes a new breakout to stop that....and given the number of people blatantly flaunting the rules, i'm not surprised.
My armageddon logic? I am nothing if not logical.
As i said, if you want to accuse Dan of anything, its being overly cautious.
The armageddon alternative you snigger at.....well ask the italians about taking this thing too lightly.

How can anyone argue with such a well thought out and articulated scientific rebuttal?!

You have an issue with Dan, so be it, don't twist facts, and ignore others to suit that argument.....and then question other peoples logic.