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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4005
Probably coming up to the expiry date as well.....
AZ has quite a long shelf life compared to Pfizer, the new version of Pfizer only just starting to appear on shelves has a longer shelf life than the original.

I've heard they were throwing Pfizer away by the thousands early due to the short shelf life and onerous storage requirements, I've also been told by someone that claims to have CSR contacts that stopping the Pfizer waste is the real reason why they adjusted the eligible age groups.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4006
For an old Greenie like me, one thing that has always bugged me about the Pfizer is the storage requirements (all those doses at -70 degrees would carry a significant environmental cost). The other thing is that any long term issues with Pfizer remain unknown, because it's a new technology. The AZ, whatever issues exist with DVT etc., is a technology that has been road tested for decades. And it is much lower maintenance.

Having had the Pfzier, I  might wake up one day with gills, or worse, a die hard Essendon supporter lol.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4007
If the AZ doses are not considered good enough for us how come we think they’re good enough for others?
I’m sure Indonesia could distribute all the AZ doses we give them among 60+ year olds if they wish. Hell, with their population they could give them to 90+ year olds without making much of a dent. And if they take a more pragmatic approach to giving it to younger age groups, would they be wrong?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4008

baggers don't bite, LP is just being contrary because he can't agree to disagree on a hypothetical scenario where we have vaccinated significantly (i can't believe how often i have to repeat this) that at the current rate (bold ticked underlined etc) of adverse reaction to covid and the vaccine we will likely (qualifying statement) see more adverse reactions to the vaccine in the short term (qualifying statement) than we will from covid until (qualifying statement) we let it rip and then and only then will that relationship flip.

So my point is that the crap show surrounding covid is yet to really begin and the video spf showed us that normality is gone and you can get used to lockdowns in the medium term.

Understand?



"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4009
Nobody I know taking a rational vaccination position has claimed that, certainly no scientists and no health professionals. Vaccines haven't got 100% efficacy, and they won't be without patients who have reactions, the assertion vaccines aren't perfect is only used by naysayers and anti-vaxxers to create certain uncertainty.

btw., If you answered my earlier question about the reactions to 2nd doses, really thought about it and both possible answers, you'd realise how silly your assertion is that the vaccines will at some point become deadlier than the endemic virus. It just takes a little bit of mindful thought before making a statement to realise how wrong the assertion you've repeated here is.

I'll prompt you to think about this by asking some basic questions if you like, but don't get defensive if it makes your earlier posts look somewhat silly?

Can you stop arguing a point that fundamentally agrees with your position regarding vaccines?

Talk about sounding stupid.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4010
Having had the Pfzier, I  might wake up one day with gills, or worse, a die hard Essendon supporter lol.
Gimme blod clots any day.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4012
baggers don't bite, LP is just being contrary because he can't agree to disagree on a hypothetical scenario where we have vaccinated significantly (i can't believe how often i have to repeat this) that at the current rate (bold ticked underlined etc) of adverse reaction to covid and the vaccine we will likely (qualifying statement) see more adverse reactions to the vaccine in the short term (qualifying statement) than we will from covid until (qualifying statement) we let it rip and then and only then will that relationship flip.

So my point is that the crap show surrounding covid is yet to really begin and the video spf showed us that normality is gone and you can get used to lockdowns in the medium term.

Understand?
He may not, can't or won't be able to understand something that is so fundamentally flawed, the assertion about the vaccine severe reactions exceeding COVID acute cases hasn't been correct in the past, isn't correct in the present and won't be correct in the future. It's just fear mongering.

Unlike the accusations made we do know and realise that vaccines aren't perfect, at best they only protect about 90% of the population, with a significant percentage of the population either being unable to take the vaccine or not developing a resistance as a result of having it. That leaves roughly 2,500,000 people vulnerable in Australia alone, and we already have 916 deaths from just over 32,000 COVID cases. Extrapolate the current death rate for the 2,500,000 potential cases. 2,500,000 / 32,000 X 916 = 71,562 deaths

Now, the reality is adverse reactions to vaccines doses is not linear, most who will get a bad reaction get in on the first dose, so 2nd doses can be virtually ignored. That means only half the doses used to vaccinate the population is the critical number.

We have 6 deaths linked to 6,000,000 vaccinations, even if in the grim worst case all the current ICU cases potentially linked to AZ or Pfizer do not make it, that number peaks at 24 per 6,000,000 doses.  We've about 18,000,000 first doses remaining to issue given that not everyone is eligible. So at the current adverse reaction rate, 18,000,000 potential 1st vaccinations, 18,000,000 / 6,000,000 x 24 = 72 deaths

Basic math exposes the folly of the assertion that vaccines at any stage become as deadly as COVID. The numbers might change marginally in some direction for better or worse, but they won't drift from the current trend in a ratio of 1000:1. Globally, even in the best cases scenario, they been able to reduce the death rate in the ratio 100:1, that still leaves 720 potential COVID deaths to 72 potential vaccine deaths, if we leave vaccine deaths at the worst case and COVID deaths at the best case. However, it looks like that 100:1 reduction ratio cannot be sustained and 10:1 is more likely to be the real long term number, and even that depends heavily on resource availability. So 7,200 COVID deaths for 72 vaccine deaths looks realistic possibility.

But of course many have stated this all along, you get vaccinated to protect those around you not just to protect yourself!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4013
;D

Hey GTC, do you have any Sheedy posters I can borrow ? I think it's already starting lol.
Yeah I do Pauly, they are a homemade though but I used only the best quality Sorbent paper I could find.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4014
With all these new cases in NSW, it seems much of the QF fleet will be mothballed for some time to come.         

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4015
He may not, can't or won't be able to understand something that is so fundamentally flawed, the assertion about the vaccine severe reactions exceeding COVID acute cases hasn't been correct in the past, isn't correct in the present and won't be correct in the future. It's just fear mongering.

Unlike the accusations made we do know and realise that vaccines aren't perfect, at best they only protect about 90% of the population, with a significant percentage of the population either being unable to take the vaccine or not developing a resistance as a result of having it. That leaves roughly 2,500,000 people vulnerable in Australia alone, and we already have 916 deaths from just over 32,000 COVID cases. Extrapolate the current death rate for the 2,500,000 potential cases. 2,500,000 / 32,000 X 916 = 71,562 deaths

Now, the reality is adverse reactions to vaccines doses is not linear, most who will get a bad reaction get in on the first dose, so 2nd doses can be virtually ignored. That means only half the doses used to vaccinate the population is the critical number.

We have 6 deaths linked to 6,000,000 vaccinations, even if in the grim worst case all the current ICU cases potentially linked to AZ or Pfizer do not make it, that number peaks at 24 per 6,000,000 doses.  We've about 18,000,000 first doses remaining to issue given that not everyone is eligible. So at the current adverse reaction rate, 18,000,000 potential 1st vaccinations, 18,000,000 / 6,000,000 x 24 = 72 deaths

Basic math exposes the folly of the assertion that vaccines at any stage become as deadly as COVID. The numbers might change marginally in some direction for better or worse, but they won't drift from the current trend in a ratio of 1000:1. Globally, even in the best cases scenario, they been able to reduce the death rate in the ratio 100:1, that still leaves 720 potential COVID deaths to 72 potential vaccine deaths, if we leave vaccine deaths at the worst case and COVID deaths at the best case. However, it looks like that 100:1 reduction ratio cannot be sustained and 10:1 is more likely to be the real long term number, and even that depends heavily on resource availability. So 7,200 COVID deaths for 72 vaccine deaths looks realistic possibility.

But of course many have stated this all along, you get vaccinated to protect those around you not just to protect yourself!

Lp.  You missed the part where we continue eliminating covid which means no further deaths vs the adverse reactions still to come in the remaining 70% of the population.

Your maths is fine you forget the fact that im hypothesising that our current vaccination increases at a rate significantly greater than infection.

Check your logic.

Oh forget it, this is way over your head
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4016
I’m sure Indonesia could distribute all the AZ doses we give them among 60+ year olds if they wish. Hell, with their population they could give them to 90+ year olds without making much of a dent. And if they take a more pragmatic approach to giving it to younger age groups, would they be wrong?

If we think it’s OK for them to give it to their youngies why don’t we give it to ours? Would that be seen as pragmatic?
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4017
HuffPost reports the Offensive Line coach of the Minnesota Vikings is on the cusp of being booted from the NFL because he refuses to take the vaccine. That’s the way to do it. He still gets to choose to remain unvaccinated if he wishes, but he just has to stop putting others at risk. In the NFL, he’d be putting the Vikings at risk as the NFL has introduced a new rule that any team that has to pull out of a game because of positive Covid tests will forfeit that game if it can’t be rescheduled.

Interesting to hear the Republican Governor of Alabama going ballistic over her fellow Alabamians’ reluctance to vaccinate. When asked what she was going to do about it, she said she’d done everything she could and it was time to blame the unvaccinated. So what’s the pathetic percentage of fully vaccinated people there? 34%.

Sitting at 12%, we could only dream of such a figure. The fact that this is due to a lack of supply rather than a willingness to take the vaccine just makes it worse.

Im not a fan of this approach but the logic seems a bit broken to me.

If im vaccinated and the person next to me isn't, what difference does it make to me?

Note: vaccinated people are still catching covid and still transmitting covid, and they are also going to hospital with covid.

Those who choose to remain unvaccinated run a personal risk and thats their choice, but largely its quite irrelevant to the price of fish isn't it?

This is an honest question seeking to understand the rationale rather than anything else.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4018
Vaccinations may reduce the transmission of the Delta Variant in 2 ways: vaccinated people:
  • may be less likely to become infected, and if you’re not infected you won’t give it to anyone else.
  • may be less infectious if they do become infected and may therefore be less likely to infect others than unvaccinated people.

I think there’s some evidence to support both propositions, but I’m not informed enough to go further than that.

If either or both of the above propositions are correct, then the more people vaccinate, the less transmission there will be in the community. The odds of vaccinated and unvaccinated people being infected will then be reduced.

Any reduction in transmission rates will help to prevent Covid mutating into more dangerous variants, or at least will help to delay those mutations. More dangerous variants will be a threat to both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4019
If we think it’s OK for them to give it to their youngies why don’t we give it to ours? Would that be seen as pragmatic?
In a country where Covid is circulating a lot, it’s a lot easier to disregard the fear of individuals that they might die of side effects. The logic becomes that there is a much greater chance of a person of any age dying of Covid as opposed to side effects.

Individuals are also more likely to make a rational choice to vaccinate if they have a 1% chance of dying from Covid and a 0.00001% chance of dying from side effects (I’m putting those percentages up only for the sake of argument: the actual percentages might be different).

In Australia, the prospect of the Eastern States eliminating Covid in the near future makes it harder to weigh risks and benefits.