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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4140 –
Quote from: Mav on
The R0  is reportedly between 5 and 9 whereas the original R0 was between 2 and 3.
Yes, this is correct, the original strain R0 was about 2.5, the Delta Strain R0 is around 7.

People see that number and think is only 2x or 3x, but it's part of a growth calculation so 7 is hundreds or thousands of times more infectious than 2.5.

The approximate formula is R0n, where n is the number of infection cycles.

Our video doctor friend did a nice summary, for some reason this video sometimes loads part way through the video and you have to go back to the start to get at the basics;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDL6XZ8DDbs
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4141 –
Apparently, the CDC will publicly reveal its report on Friday, US time.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4142 –
Quote from: Mav on
Apparently, the CDC will publicly reveal its report on Friday, US time.
The problem will be numbers like R0 depend on public behaviour, the real numbers are calculated assuming certain environmental conditions which include percentages of good or bad human behaviour. They have the 80/20 rule for example, 80% of cases are spread by only 20% of people.

But if public behaviour changes radically, for example of we all bunker down like Preppers, or if we all go stupid and party like it's 1999, the R0 will change dramatically.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4143 –
Apparently, China is battling an outbreak of Delta Covid in 8 provinces and 41,000 people are locked down in Beijing. Seems it came into China on a flight from Russia. Tokyo is setting a record with 4,000 daily infections, with hospitals bursting at the seams.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4144 –
Quote from: Mav on
Tokyo is setting a record with 4,000 daily infections, with hospitals bursting at the seams.
That may be an old figure, I've read that today Tokyo might hit 10,000 cases in one day, and that Japan wide it may double!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4146 –
Stretching the Pfizer interval from three to six weeks will probably have some effect on reducing the efficacy, but it is probably the right thing to do given the vast bulk of Delta cases are unvaccinated.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4147 –
Quote from: LP on
Stretching the Pfizer interval from three to six weeks will probably have some effect on reducing the efficacy, but it is probably the right thing to do given the vast bulk of Delta cases are unvaccinated.

According to the scientist I think it was spfs video it showed it actually yields better effects in the UK than it has in Israel.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4149 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
According to the scientist I think it was spfs video it showed it actually yields better effects in the UK than it has in Israel.
Yes after the 2nd shot, but a longer interval after only the 1st dose increases the time risk of infection or transmission.

There is not much solid data on the difference between Pfizer and AZ for the Delta variant after only the 1st shot, but both appear to be about 65% effective at that early stage. The people I've heard talking about this suggest cross vaccination is the best strategy to maximise efficacy, but not many regions are doing it. However it's likely they will start to cross vaccinate as Delta grabs hold, so that patients get a strong reaction for both antibodies and T-Cell immunity.
The Force Awakens!
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4150 –
Quote from: LP on
Yes after the 2nd shot, but a longer interval after only the 1st dose increases the time risk of infection or transmission.

There is not much solid data on the difference between Pfizer and AZ for the Delta variant after only the 1st shot, but both appear to be about 65% effective at that early stage. The people I've heard talking about this suggest cross vaccination is the best strategy to maximise efficacy, but not many regions are doing it. However it's likely they will start to cross vaccinate as Delta grabs hold, so that patients get a strong reaction for both antibodies and T-Cell immunity.

T cell immunity from the vaccines? we'll see.

65% efficacy for delta - ROFL.

This guys reckons closer to zero.

https://rumble.com/vjs5hv-dr-peter-mccullough-on-australias-plan-to-open-the-borders..html
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4151 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
Sober reading on Pfizer.

https://doctors4covidethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Pfizer-pharmacokinetics-and-toxicity.pdf
The risks from Pfizer or AZ are similar, only the popular media / social media differentiate and that causes a public / political reaction.

The paper you link is a bit ordinary, it is talking about real world effects but exacerbates the bad effects. Also if you look at the last page and all the anonymous references, that's often a comment about the poor quality of the data and the inability of others to reproduce the results. 
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4152 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
T cell immunity from the vaccines? we'll see.

65% efficacy for delta - ROFL.

This guys reckons closer to zero.

https://rumble.com/vjs5hv-dr-peter-mccullough-on-australias-plan-to-open-the-borders..html
Popular media and unqualified commentary associate efficacy with immunity, but efficacy is not purely a measure of immunity, efficacy is a combination of immunity / resistance as well as a reduction of symptoms and transmission.

A vaccine can even delivery zero immunity but still be high in efficacy if it greatly diminishes acute symptoms.

Almost no vaccine in history offers 65% immunity, or even 50% immunity, but that doesn't mean that they aren't delivering 65% or greater efficacy.

The way this is reported in social media alludes to some controversy, but there isn't and it could be the case that if they are measured the same way AZ and Pfizer are equal in efficacy. However there is a debate going on asking for global standards for measuring efficacy.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4153 –
Media are conflating two distinctly separate aspects of Sars-CoV-2 and trying to build some controversy.

The media are quoting experts who say there is no hope of elimination, and publishing conclusions that is due to the failed vaccination scheme or failed efficacy. But that is not true.

The experts are saying there is no hope of elimination because Sars-CoV-2 is now endemic and the chance to eliminate it is long passed us by.

Reduced vaccinations rates extend the pandemic, and delayed roll out is the primary reason for this, not reduced efficacy.

Many people are getting vaccinated too late, they left it to the last minute and as such even after vaccination they have not had enough time to develop a strong enough reaction to the vaccine. It takes about 4 weeks bare minimum for a vaccine dose to work.

Scotty and Gladys left it too late, they started off with the wrong tactic and also acted too slowly, and now that is a price NSW and Australia is paying or will pay.

It's alarming how silly some people can be, I know several who immediately departed Vic when the lockdown was lifted, leaving for the Gold Coast / Sunshine Coast! Now they are stuck there with a 14 days mandatory isolation if they return, they can't leave their accommodation and have limited restaurants or commercial services open for a next few days. They don't get that it's not over for any of us until it is over for all of us.

The quickest way out of this is for everyone to comply, if they don't then we are almost stuck in this loop forever, or at least until effective post infection treatments become available.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #4154 –
And NSW has another very bad preceding day number of cases.  A mess.  The natives must be getting very restless.