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Topic: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications (Read 30208 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #210 –
Quote from: kruddler on
Yes, of course it's balance, but the original point was, ours was all over the shop and we went away from that balance at the selection table.

We fielding a team unlike what had got us there and we lost our balance at the selection table because we were too focussed on the beating them.

We played a team who finished 2nd and played them on a deck they haven't lost on all year. They were fresher and we were banged up. They are a at the very moment a slightly better team and it showed when it mattered. End of story.

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS. 

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #211 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
jack wasn't a factor.  Wasn't fit enough and up for selection.  We subbed fog for Kennedy because fog was having an ordinary day at the office.

Team balance doesn't cost you the way it did.  We had too few that were on and too many off.

Chicken and egg though.

Did we have an off day because too many were off?
or
Were too many off because they were expected to do more than they had been doing to this point?

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #212 –
Quote from: shawny on
We played a team who finished 2nd and played them on a deck they haven't lost on all year. They were fresher and we were banged up. They are a at the very moment a slightly better team and it showed when it mattered. End of story.

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS.

Don't misunderstand what i mean.

No doubt Brisbane were most likely a bridge too far.
But we were out of it before it started. Had we not got the jump early, it would've been a VERY different result....an absolute smashing.

If we pick our best team, play our best and are beaten by a better team, i can live with that.
I just think that we screwed up at the selection table and it hurt our chances of winning....if we had any chance at all.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #213 –
Quote from: shawny on
.................................

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS. 

I have to agree. The very simple assumption that underpins these discussions is that the MC knows a lot more about our own players, a lot more about opposition players, has a lot more experience, have worked for years in the industry as players and coaches etc. It is therefore very logical to assert that they have a much greater chance of picking the best team to win. There are reasons involved that we simply cannot know. Far too many supporters follow the Max Delbrück principle ; "I don't understand this. It must be wrong." The correct starting point is to assume, quite logically that the MC has picked a better team than we ever could, and to try to understand why they made those choices. Trying to argue from the opposite starting point is an argument from incredulity : "I can't figure out what the MC did, therefore the MC stuffed up."

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #214 –
Quote from: shawny on
We played a team who finished 2nd and played them on a deck they haven't lost on all year. They were fresher and we were banged up. They are a at the very moment a slightly better team and it showed when it mattered. End of story.

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS. 


They are a good team and even better at home but the MC are humans who make mistakes like everyone else and have lost us games before but not this time imho. We picked a decent team but given they had the rest and we were banged up it was a tough ask...

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #215 –
Obviously the mc have more Intel than your average punter.
But they are human and make mistakes the same as anyone else. Ive had little issues with them throughout the year apart from the obvious, but the preliminary side was one I was most uncomfortable with all year.

To be fair, we were probably as fit as we'd been all year too making it the toughest team to pick all year.....and with the most at stake.
I don't envy them, but I can criticise them 

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #216 –
Jinx eb1

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #218 –
I agree the MC have picked the incorrect horses for courses, but they do so without knowing the full info about our opponents.

We tend to select the names on the sheet based on everyone's best footy and usually after selection night.   The MC do so knowing whether or not players are in good, bad or indifferent form, whether or not fringe players have had a rough trot and what impact that may have on them.  Notice we all tend to look at the same starting 18, and then tend to differ on the rest with usually only the mix being referenced as ways we've stuffed it but we don't know about the niggles that might only be a knock or a corkie or a muscle strain. 

Most of the time we look at who isn't there and their potential performance without any other info.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #219 –
I'd be curious to know how those of us on the outside can adjudicate when the MC picks the wrong team. Is it when we lose ? When they make selections that we don't agree with ? When some particular player has a bad game ?

Sure the MC are human and can make mistakes, but so are we human, which means we can also make errors, and when that is combined with the fact that we have gaps all over the place when it comes to knowing how to pick a team, I'm flummoxed at how people can be so super confident that they're right. If our MC is that shaky, please apply for a job at the club. We need all the help we can get.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #220 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I'd be curious to know how those of us on the outside can adjudicate when the MC picks the wrong team. Is it when we lose ? When they make selections that we don't agree with ? When some particular player has a bad game ?

Sure the MC are human and can make mistakes, but so are we human, which means we can also make errors, and when that is combined with the fact that we have gaps all over the place when it comes to knowing how to pick a team, I'm flummoxed at how people can be so super confident that they're right. If our MC is that shaky, please apply for a job at the club. We need all the help we can get.

If you predict what going to happen based on the team that's picked....and then it happens...is that dumb luck? Coincidence? Perhaps it's people knowing a thing or 2 about football.

This year we have been better than in the past. Less games won or lost at the mc meetings than at anytime in the past. In years gone by, the team selection has been VERY average.

Vossy played his hand early when he basically said we'd be playing 2 rucks and Harry (and Charlie goes without saying) at the press conference after the dees game. That gives the opposition the whole week to plan for that.

At least keep some mystery about it.

Look, everyone has said their piece. I doubt anyone is going to change their minds.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #221 –
Quote from: kruddler on
If you predict what going to happen based on the team that's picked....and then it happens...is that dumb luck? Coincidence? Perhaps it's people knowing a thing or 2 about football.

This year we have been better than in the past. Less games won or lost at the mc meetings than at anytime in the past. In years gone by, the team selection has been VERY average.

Vossy played his hand early when he basically said we'd be playing 2 rucks and Harry (and Charlie goes without saying) at the press conference after the dees game. That gives the opposition the whole week to plan for that.

At least keep some mystery about it.

Look, everyone has said their piece. I doubt anyone is going to change their minds.

There's not much to predict. We either win, draw or lose. Given the number of variables in play, how you can possibly say a loss was because the MC picked a team you don't agree with ? Why not 50 other possible reasons that we lost, nothing at all to do with the team selection ? My posts in this space are essentially a plea for a little modesty, a little perspective, and a little humility. I've said it before - if we tested our ideas about team selection with Voss and the MC, we wouldn't last 2 minutes. This has nothing to do with intelligence, and everything to do with lack of experience and lack of access to information. If you need 20 pieces of information to make an informed decision, and we are lucky have two or three, then you can't make the correct decision. This is simply logic IMO.

In 2022, Geelong played 2 rucks and 2 KPF the whole year. Rhys Stanley played 20 games, Blicavs 24. Jeremy Cameron played 24 games, Hawkins 25. That's basically 4 talls the whole season, and the 4 of them played in all 3 finals. History shows 2 rucks and 2 kpf can work. I don't see why this setup is such a bad idea, and I don't see why we can't make it work.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #222 –
OK, well if its as simplistic as win lose or draw, then there is no point continuing this conversation.

Just like we are not Collingwood.
We are not Geelong.

Team balance, i've been talking about it all year and it relates to OUR team, not anybody elses team. Our players make our team different to every other team.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #223 –
Geelong wasn't left unbalanced by playing those 4, and there's nothing about playing Pittonet, De Koning, McKay and Charlie Curnow that makes us unbalanced. There's not a single person of note in the CFC who would believe that, not one.

If Collingwood had our 4 players, they would play each and every week.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #224 –
The whole thing really boils down to expectations.

At the end of the home and away season we had a discussion about expectations.

Many of us said that the effort would prove too much in the end.
With the pressure of getting to finals, our finishing position and the likelihood of interstate travel, coupled with some players carrying injuries it would be..."a bridge too far"
This prediction was made before finals began.
For those people we probably exceeded expectations.

For others there was the line of thinking..."Why can't we go all the way?"
For those people we fell at the second last hurdle.
We failed to meet their hopes and expectations.
They'll be looking for reasons why, perhaps ignoring the most obvious....we just ran out of steam, and came up against a superior opponent on their home deck.

Or maybe it's a combination of a lot of factors, and perhaps selection reasons we're not privy too.

So we can look for reasons why.
Was it selections or exhaustion?
Kruddler is right, we'll stick fast to our own belief as to why we didn't progress further and there really is no point trying to change folk's minds.