Carlton Supporters Club

Princes Park => Robert Heatley Stand => Topic started by: crashlander on March 23, 2022, 07:27:53 pm

Title: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: crashlander on March 23, 2022, 07:27:53 pm
At 1310 at the MCG on April 3rd. Happens to be my daughter's birthday< but I'll see what she intends doing before saying yay or nay.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: crashlander on March 24, 2022, 11:56:17 pm
Two wins. Can we make it three? Cerra and Martin will be back, as will Voss and the other coaches. Fog to go out: he wasn't bad, but he was thrashed overhead.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: townsendcalling on March 25, 2022, 03:19:06 pm
I think we need to look more carefully at the make up of the opposition and whether we need to field 2 ruckman. We did against Melb because of Gawn and Jackson, likewise Richmond with their 2 big guys, but the Doggies in reality only had English. Pitt and JSOS could have got the job done and as it turned out De Koning had very little influence on the game.

Hawks??......Reeves and BiG Boy who now treies to hold down a key position.

Do we need both Pitt AND De Koning??
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on March 25, 2022, 04:43:44 pm
I think we need to look more carefully at the make up of the opposition and whether we need to field 2 ruckman. We did against Melb because of Gawn and Jackson, likewise Richmond with their 2 big guys, but the Doggies in reality only had English. Pitt and JSOS could have got the job done and as it turned out De Koning had very little influence on the game.

Hawks??......Reeves and BiG Boy who now treies to hold down a key position.

Do we need both Pitt AND De Koning??

At half time, the boys were raving about how our 2 rucks were dominating the game. How they compliment eachother and how they offer an additional tall target up forward.
Having Pittonet in the ruck allows us to use Harry as a 'get out' option out of half back, who can find Charlie for a long down the line, and kick long to the marking target of TDK up forward. Doesn't matter how far up the ground they go, there is always a marking target to kick too.

Both play.

They offer cover for Charlie/Harry as well.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: JonDorotich on March 26, 2022, 12:20:27 pm
Interesting selection this week with Cerra a certainty to return and J Martin also likely - assume that Fogarty and one of Setterfield/Owies or Fisher make way?

Dow is bashing down the door in the 2s and I’d much prefer him in the side rather than either of Setterfield or O’Brien, but acknowledge that it would be a very tough call to drop OBrien after a decent outing against the Dogs.

Barring more C19 interruptions, most likely to be one change Cerra in and Fogarty out and Dow will need to wait - just don’t want him to become Heath Scotland at Collingwood because that almost certainly ends with him leaving for no return on our investment.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 26, 2022, 09:15:04 pm
Hawks won't be the easybeats we imagined. They're embarrassing Port Adelaide on their own dungheap.

Talking about ruckmen, Ned Reeves stands at 211 cm and 104 kg. He's young, 23, but the height advantage gives him a head start. McEvoy is now trying to play forward while Reeves takes the ruck. 

Their midfield includes O'Meara, Mitchell & Worpel. They have a 197 cm tall midfielder from Ireland, Connor Nash, who has the speed and agility you'd expect from a Gaelic footballer. And they've added a high draft pick, Josh Ward, to their midfield.

Up forward, they have Gunston, Breust, Mitch Lewis & Chad Wingard. Down back, they have Sicily and CJ. CJ is ridiculously athletic and has dominated so far this season after an injury last year.

Just when we thought we could take it easy after the Tigers & Dogs ...

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: JonDorotich on March 26, 2022, 10:05:49 pm
Hawks won't be the easybeats we imagined. They're embarrassing Port Adelaide on their own dungheap.

Talking about ruckmen, Ned Reeves stands at 211 cm and 104 kg. He's young, 23, but the height advantage gives him a head start. McEvoy is now trying to play forward while Reeves takes the ruck. 

Their midfield includes O'Meara, Mitchell & Worpel. They have a 197 cm tall midfielder from Ireland, Connor Nash, who has the speed and agility you'd expect from a Gaelic footballer. And they've added a high draft pick, Josh Ward, to their midfield.

Up forward, they have Gunston, Breust, Mitch Lewis & Chad Wingard. Down back, they have Sicily and CJ. CJ is ridiculously athletic and has dominated so far this season after an injury last year.

Just when we thought we could take it easy after the Tigers & Dogs ...

They look very good - good talks forward abs back and mids that go hard. We’ll have to be at our absolute best.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LoveNavy on March 26, 2022, 10:20:16 pm
Maybe Port are lacking something from the coaches box🤔
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 26, 2022, 10:33:04 pm
Hawks won't be the easybeats we imagined. They're embarrassing Port Adelaide on their own dungheap.

Talking about ruckmen, Ned Reeves stands at 211 cm and 104 kg. He's young, 23, but the height advantage gives him a head start. McEvoy is now trying to play forward while Reeves takes the ruck. 

Their midfield includes O'Meara, Mitchell & Worpel. They have a 197 cm tall midfielder from Ireland, Connor Nash, who has the speed and agility you'd expect from a Gaelic footballer. And they've added a high draft pick, Josh Ward, to their midfield.

Up forward, they have Gunston, Breust, Mitch Lewis & Chad Wingard. Down back, they have Sicily and CJ. CJ is ridiculously athletic and has dominated so far this season after an injury last year.

Just when we thought we could take it easy after the Tigers & Dogs ...


Agree, Mitchell has them playing aggressive football and they do attack the ball well.Reeves and McEvoy are a decent ruck setup, think they will struggle with Charlie , Harry and TDK though and our big mids might wear them down..
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 26, 2022, 11:03:10 pm
Maybe Port are lacking something from the coaches box🤔

Reckon you're right ... they looked ordinary
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 26, 2022, 11:17:03 pm
Aliir Aliir, Fantasia, & Dixon were out injured, so that's part of the explanation. But Port shouldn't have been so crap ...
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mantis on March 26, 2022, 11:29:12 pm
The 3rd game of the season could be a high scoring shoot out style of footy. Both teams with eager and hungry new coaches. Both with enthusiastic hungry for a win players. Both love to play with a high number of handballs to keep possession and keep moving the ball forward at any cost. Will probably be a mental game where the more desperate side will win. Should probably be the game of the round. I say that being serious. Ignore past performances. This game on the big stage will be a test of will, and a test of who chokes first. I hope we win by 3 goals, but won’t be too disappointed if we fall short by a couple of goals. Two sides on the rise that should make the top 8 if injuries don’t kill their season. Both play a very exciting brand of football.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 27, 2022, 09:15:06 am
Hawks won't be the easybeats we imagined. They're embarrassing Port Adelaide on their own dungheap.

Talking about ruckmen, Ned Reeves stands at 211 cm and 104 kg. He's young, 23, but the height advantage gives him a head start. McEvoy is now trying to play forward while Reeves takes the ruck. 

Their midfield includes O'Meara, Mitchell & Worpel. They have a 197 cm tall midfielder from Ireland, Connor Nash, who has the speed and agility you'd expect from a Gaelic footballer. And they've added a high draft pick, Josh Ward, to their midfield.

Up forward, they have Gunston, Breust, Mitch Lewis & Chad Wingard. Down back, they have Sicily and CJ. CJ is ridiculously athletic and has dominated so far this season after an injury last year.

Just when we thought we could take it easy after the Tigers & Dogs ...



Well said.

Any thoughts that the Dawks would be easy beats has vanished. As I was watching the game I was fully expecting Port to wake up and run over their opposition... but the longer the game went the more authoritative the Dawks became, an emphatic and impressive win. And it was a 4 qtr effort.

Yep, we'll have to be at our best.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 27, 2022, 10:08:07 am
With Martin and Cerra set to return and Dow/Kemp/Motlop/Cottrell & Newnes putting in strong efforts in the Magoos... who goes out?

For mine, it's Fogarty and Setterfield. There's much to like about Setters' efforts but his fumbles/dropped easy marks are costly - his hands just aren't clean enough at present. After that it's hard to see who could make way for Dow and Co.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on March 27, 2022, 10:23:15 am
Cerra must come back if right.
Martin probably should, but is not a monty IMO.

OMac will determine who else goes out.

Plowman last in, first out....but if no Omac, we might need him to play taller. Potentially bringing in Kemp or Young for coverage also.

Assuming OMac is fully fit,
I'd have Cerra in and Fogarty out and have Martin as the sub.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Micky0 on March 27, 2022, 10:35:28 am
This will be an interesting one… definitely not feeling as confident. In my footy tipping comp I picked Carlton for R1&2 but not sure I can for this one…
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: shawny on March 27, 2022, 10:54:12 am
We should be confident to win this week. I know it’s hard considering our last 10 years but our new midfield adding Cerra back in to further strengthen us will give our forwards plenty of looks and we have too much firepower up forward for this mob.

Think the 10 day break will also help us.

Blues by 35.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 27, 2022, 11:28:34 am
Quietly confident ... but it'll be a hot contest for sure.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Thryleon on March 27, 2022, 06:37:56 pm
We have an additional COVID factor that needs to be considered. 

Will it run through the club and we end up with a bit of revolving door of positives?

Will players struggle with it like so many have with lethargy and not come back as spritely as they were prior to infection?

Valid questions, but ones that need to be asked.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: pinot on March 27, 2022, 06:47:42 pm
Hawthorn played a game out of the box - question is whether they can repeat that performance kicking 13 goals straight.

I have my doubts - big week on training track for the boys.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Lods on March 27, 2022, 07:38:42 pm
I suspect it will be another one of those games of 'momentum changes'.
Not over the line by any means and we need to treat them with respect and come ready to play.
I think our best is enough to get the job done...but we need to be at our best.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 27, 2022, 08:30:15 pm
We have an additional COVID factor that needs to be considered. 

Will it run through the club and we end up with a bit of revolving door of positives?

Will players struggle with it like so many have with lethargy and not come back as spritely as they were prior to infection?

Valid questions, but ones that need to be asked.

But it’s just a sniffle Thry 🙄

From what I’ve gathered, the club has very strict protocols in place that should limit the chances of transmission.  The fact that the last outbreak was limited to two players, two coaches and one football department member suggests that our safeguards are effective.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that we won’t have multiple cases.  The vaccination mandate should mean that long COVID isn’t a problem.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: tonyo on March 27, 2022, 08:41:31 pm
Port Power were simply atrocious last night.  Their forward line is shot to pieces, and their best two big defenders were missing.  And the Hawks were kicking them from everywhere.

Mind you , it's better if the Blues go into this game thinking they can get rolled - our recent history in 'games we should win' is not exactly flattering.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Thryleon on March 27, 2022, 08:54:18 pm
But it’s just a sniffle Thry 🙄

From what I’ve gathered, the club has very strict protocols in place that should limit the chances of transmission.  The fact that the last outbreak was limited to two players, two coaches and one football department member suggests that our safeguards are effective.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that we won’t have multiple cases.  The vaccination mandate should mean that long COVID isn’t a problem.
Yep, it is just a sniffle, but that doesn't stop people having to isolate until the rules are changed, and it doesnt mean people are 100%.

Your reaction summarises the issue with the pandemic though.  For some strange reason when people point out how irrelevant getting covid is for the majority of people, you get thrown in the same boat as people who are anti vax.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 27, 2022, 09:48:34 pm
Yep, it is just a sniffle, but that doesn't stop people having to isolate until the rules are changed, and it doesnt mean people are 100%.

Your reaction summarises the issue with the pandemic though.  For some strange reason when people point out how irrelevant getting covid is for the majority of people, you get thrown in the same boat as people who are anti vax.

I wouldn’t say anti-vax Thry, just anti-science.  Just ask the folk in ICU.

Anyway, this isn’t the COVID thread so let’s get back to the Hawthorn game.

Yes, it’s possible that one or both teams may be impacted by COVID, but it’s unlikely that more than a couple of players or coaches will be unavailable, if any.

Of far more importance is whether McDonald is fit and who makes way for Cerra and Martin.  Then there’s Dow banging the door down for a spot in the 22.

I think that it will be McDonald, Fisher and Owies out for Plowman, Cerra and Martin.

Dow will be the sub.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 28, 2022, 11:28:38 am
I wouldn’t say anti-vax Thry, just anti-science.  Just ask the folk in ICU.

Anyway, this isn’t the COVID thread so let’s get back to the Hawthorn game.

Yes, it’s possible that one or both teams may be impacted by COVID, but it’s unlikely that more than a couple of players or coaches will be unavailable, if any.

Of far more importance is whether McDonald is fit and who makes way for Cerra and Martin.  Then there’s Dow banging the door down for a spot in the 22.

I think that it will be McDonald, Fisher and Owies out for Plowman, Cerra and Martin.

Dow will be the sub.
Young or Plowman? Might need another tall to replace OMac
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 28, 2022, 12:15:40 pm
I guess the answer to that question depends on who will stand Mitchell Lewis. Someone joked when he was drafted that he was going to replace both Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis. He wasn't really a top draft pick (no. 76), but he had the size to let Hawks supporters dream: 198 cm and now 100 kg. It's taken 5 years, but he's now a good power forward. He's kicked 3.1 against North & 5.0 against Port after kicking 22 goals in 14 games last year. Given his height and current impact, Weitering would probably have to go to him. But this would pretty much force Weitering to play deep which reduces his impact on the game. This is where losing Jones hurts as he would have been perfect for him. Again, putting the Gov on him would prevent Gov from prioritising intercepts. Lewis Young would have the size to match him at 201/100 but does he have the ability to match him on the lead and for physicality?

The Hawks could seek to take advantage of our lack of tall defenders by bringing in the 196/94 Jacob Koschitzke, but if that was a great selection idea surely the Hawks would have done it already.

Gunston at 193 cm is a slippery forward and needs a lockdown defender. Gov is the right height but would playing him as a lockdown defender cramp his style? Newman at 187 cm be tall enough? Plowman has the height and mobility.

I'd guess the 2 defensive set ups would be:  Weitering on Mitch Lewis & Plowman on Gunston or Lewis Young on Mitch Lewis & Weitering on Gunston.  


 
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 28, 2022, 12:17:54 pm
What is fascinating is how Port blitzed the Dawks in the middle and at clearances but were bereft of forwards and a backline. We're a different proposition in that regard.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: tonyo on March 28, 2022, 12:25:34 pm
What is fascinating is how Port blitzed the Dawks in the middle and at clearances but were bereft of forwards and a backline. We're a different proposition in that regard.
If the clearance differential is the same this week, we will win by 30+ points.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 28, 2022, 12:32:19 pm
I heard David King musing on SEN about stats. He thought if someone designed stat-keeping from the ground up now they wouldn't bother with meaningless disposal stats. He noted that in soccer, they don't keep records of how many kicks players had. He thought the stats that are worth keeping have more to do with contested possessions and those that indicate influence on the game such as score involvements. He said Ollie Wines can be an influential player but wasn't against the Hawks despite stats suggesting otherwise. I guess clearance stats also can be misleading if the statisticians award a clearance to a player who clears the ball with a clanger or unproductive disposal.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 28, 2022, 01:01:56 pm
Young or Plowman? Might need another tall to replace OMac
Agree, think it has to be Young....McEvoy and Lewis are playing the big KP forward roles with McEvoy also sharing the rucking with Reeves. Plowman and McGovern are not big enough, Young improved after a poor start in the VFL game and has the size so for me its a horses for courses selection. McGovern is probably better suited to Gunston but as always the key is win the ball in the middle and keep it down our forward half. Hawks have some tough young hombres onball and coach Mitchell dropped Liam Shiels vs Port so I reckon Shiels might come back in as a run with player.
Newman will probably have to take Wingard so he needs to play close and not be kick chasing, the latter seems to kick important goals and is one of the Hawks classier players and doesnt need many opportunities to be effective.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 28, 2022, 01:08:43 pm
Is their an 'effective' clearance stat? Because Port's clearances tended to end up in the hands of their opponents! Whereas our clearances have a very real focus -- thus far -- of said clearance benefitting or ending up on the chest of a team mate - connection/retaining possession.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: WASurfer on March 28, 2022, 01:26:32 pm
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: rocky on March 28, 2022, 01:29:29 pm
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.
Happy with all of that and yes pretty sure Wingard is out with a hammy
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 28, 2022, 02:02:44 pm
Is McEvoy much of a threat as a forward? Until I see proof to the contrary, I'm assuming the Hawks need to find a spot for him as he's the Captain, much as North was lumbered with 3 ruckmen in their opening match because they didn't want to dump Goldstein. McEvoy may well take a few marks and kick a couple of goals, but his opponent can do a lot of damage going the other way. In fact, I would think the Gov would be a great matchup for him for precisely that reason.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: cookie2 on March 28, 2022, 02:27:43 pm
Is their an 'effective' clearance stat? Because Port's clearances tended to end up in the hands of their opponents! Whereas our clearances have a very real focus -- thus far -- of said clearance benefitting or ending up on the chest of a team mate - connection/retaining possession.

I’ve often wondered what constitutes a ‘clearance’ and is awarded a clearance stat as a result.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 28, 2022, 02:42:56 pm
A lot of stats aren't what you'd think they are. For instance, contested marks include marks taken on the chest after your opponent has fallen to the ground or been blocked from following you. And they include those examples where the contest for the mark is a few metres ahead of you and the players in it knock themselves out of the contest only for the ball to lob onto your chest when you're by yourself.

And tackling stats are a bit weird. You can see player X apply heaps of heavy tackles on the other side, hurrying players into poor disposals. Then you look at the stats and there's a 0 or 1 against player X's tally of tackles. It makes it easy for player X's critics to say he applied no defensive pressure when your eyes tell you the opposite.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on March 28, 2022, 04:10:14 pm
A lot of stats aren't what you'd think they are.
Yes, it's folly to look at the stats alone.

For example, the AFL might demand a tackle is really "an effective tackle", and that requires trapping the opponent with the ball. So if the ball drops free or if the opponent disposes of the ball incorrectly it might not be a tackle stat even though the tackle caused it!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: crashlander on March 28, 2022, 07:50:05 pm
I heard David King musing on SEN about stats. He thought if someone designed stat-keeping from the ground up now they wouldn't bother with meaningless disposal stats. He noted that in soccer, they don't keep records of how many kicks players had. He thought the stats that are worth keeping have more to do with contested possessions and those that indicate influence on the game such as score involvements. He said Ollie Wines can be an influential player but wasn't against the Hawks despite stats suggesting otherwise. I guess clearance stats also can be misleading if the statisticians award a clearance to a player who clears the ball with a clanger or unproductive disposal.
No stat is meaningless if it tells you something. Possessions aren't everything, but they tell you who has the ball a lot. That can be very important.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 28, 2022, 09:47:27 pm
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.
Plowman on a dangerous fwd is coaching suicide. He has does silly stuff 1 on 1, oppo know it a play through his man.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 28, 2022, 11:11:18 pm
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.

If Martin comes in, and I think he will, it will be at the expense of Fisher, Owies or Durdin, in that order.  Setterfield played his role quite well and the competition for his spot will be from Williamson, Newnes and perhaps Dow.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: shawny on March 29, 2022, 08:48:35 am
If Martin comes in, and I think he will, it will be at the expense of Fisher, Owies or Durdin, in that order.  Setterfield played his role quite well and the competition for his spot will be from Williamson, Newnes and perhaps Dow.

Not a chance Fisher is going out.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 29, 2022, 09:14:52 am
If Martin comes in, and I think he will, it will be at the expense of Fisher, Owies or Durdin, in that order.  Setterfield played his role quite well and the competition for his spot will be from Williamson, Newnes and perhaps Dow.

I'm not so confident about Setterfield. His fumbling hands are still a worry... turnover material.

Martin for Fogarty seems certain. Cerra for Setterfield, with either Cerra or Walsh taking up his position.

Hopefully OMac recovers from his back spasm. If not, Lewis Y. seems a logical replacement.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 29, 2022, 11:47:45 am
McDonald is out so will it be Young or Plowman?

McEvoy has been ineffective as a forward but he would stretch all but Weitering and Young, or does de Koning get a defensive role?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on March 29, 2022, 01:04:14 pm
McDonald is out so will it be Young or Plowman?

McEvoy has been ineffective as a forward but he would stretch all but Weitering and Young, or does de Koning get a defensive role?
Can the Dawks afford to sit Big Boy in the F50 given our height across the field, I suspect this week you might find a reversal of roles with perhaps Reeves floating forward and McEvoy doing more ruck work? Not sure Reeves or McEvoy are harder opponents than English at the moment, the media had English as the Dog's best, but I thought we nullified his effects in the centre and really if not for hitting the scoreboard he had an ordinary game in that we let him have little influence, no coaches gave him a vote, yet our rucks got no vote as well.

Last week Port basically had more play, more inside F50s, but had no way to score with a horrendous scoring efficiency, we are almost the exact opposite in that we have not much better efficiency but when we get a scoring attempt we convert, we will need to keep converting efficiently.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 29, 2022, 09:23:27 pm
Word is Young will debut for the Blues this week.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 29, 2022, 10:32:17 pm
The AFL site has a report that Chad Wingard is available for selection as is Will Day, a 189 cm defender, who did well in the VFL on the weekend & ruckman Max Lynch after missing 2 games with concussion. Jarman Impey is coming back via the VFL this week.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 29, 2022, 11:14:00 pm
Not a chance Fisher is going out.

Why?

Everyone else is accountable when they play poorly.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 29, 2022, 11:16:04 pm
Plowman on a dangerous fwd is coaching suicide. He has does silly stuff 1 on 1, oppo know it a play through his man.

Yet Vossy was full of praise for Plowman's efforts when he was subbed into the game.  Besides, our defence is dramatically different this season and the days of Plowman and others playing back shoulder are gone.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 30, 2022, 06:38:03 am
Yet Vossy was full of praise for Plowman's efforts when he was subbed into the game.  Besides, our defence is dramatically different this season and the days of Plowman and others playing back shoulder are gone.
We shall see.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 30, 2022, 08:51:08 am
Word is Young will debut for the Blues this week.

When you consider the height of a couple that the Dawks have down forward, along with their new ruckman and McEvoy spending more time up forward... makes good sense.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 30, 2022, 08:53:59 am
Yet Vossy was full of praise for Plowman's efforts when he was subbed into the game.

I read that as simply acknowledging that Plow played his role, well, but not a hint to him playing against the Dawks. His reaction to Lewis Young potentially getting a call up was far more of a 'tell.'
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: tonyo on March 30, 2022, 08:57:45 am
Yet Vossy was full of praise for Plowman's efforts when he was subbed into the game.  Besides, our defence is dramatically different this season and the days of Plowman and others playing back shoulder are gone.

I feel a bit for Plowman - he's been stuck in 1 on 1s when the ball has been coming in at a million miles per hour, which is a defender's nightmare.  Can you imagine spending every week going toe to toe with a Charlie Cameron, Kysiah Pickett or Shai Bolton in an open 50 footrace, or Bontempelli/Dusty in a one on one marking duel?

Hopefully, the increased emphasis on upfield defending will make life more manageable for all of our defenders, Plowman included.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 30, 2022, 09:02:42 am
Not a chance Fisher is going out.



Tend to agree. Although our 3 small forwards didn't have the scoreboard impact that they did against the Tiggers  --  enter the Harold and Charles show --   all 3 continued to apply strong defensive pressure and were dangerous with aggott in hand. Each brings something a little different and their disposals/possessions are dangerous/effective/efficient and opportunistic.

Setterfield still concerns me. There is little 'authority' in his game which can be fumbly at crucial moments, but maybe there are things I'm oblivious to that he is doing well and satisfying the coaches.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 30, 2022, 09:10:28 am
Young, Cerra as the ins with Martin as sub is what AFL.com are suggesting.
Fogarty, McDonald as the outs along with the unlucky Plowman.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 30, 2022, 09:14:41 am
Tend to agree. Although our 3 small forwards didn't have the scoreboard impact that they did against the Tiggers  --  enter the Harold and Charles show --   all 3 continued to apply strong defensive pressure and were dangerous with aggott in hand. Each brings something a little different and their disposals/possessions are dangerous/effective/efficient and opportunistic.

Setterfield still concerns me. There is little 'authority' in his game which can be fumbly at crucial moments, but maybe there are things I'm oblivious to that he is doing well and satisfying the coaches.
Agree, think the Owies, Durdin and Fisher setup has been working ok.
Setterfield to me is still a weak link and wouldn't be in my best 22..
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: WASurfer on March 30, 2022, 12:34:38 pm
Tend to agree EB....could be as straight forward as Young, Cerra and Martin in for McDonald, Fogarty and Setterfield......and maybe Plowman for Newman....but 4 changes in a winning lineup would be strange. Newman's last quarter last week was horrendous.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 30, 2022, 02:16:08 pm
Tend to agree EB....could be as straight forward as Young, Cerra and Martin in for McDonald, Fogarty and Setterfield......and maybe Plowman for Newman....but 4 changes in a winning lineup would be strange. Newman's last quarter last week was horrendous.
I didn't think Newman was that bad in the last, might have to watch it again. Saad had an ordinary few minutes in the last that almost cost us. OMac is still a test so not ruled out yet but I'd like to see Young played and developed into a permanent fixture replacing Jones. Has magnificent agility and athleticism for someone so big.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 30, 2022, 02:59:24 pm
I didn't think Newman was that bad in the last, might have to watch it again. Saad had an ordinary few minutes in the last that almost cost us. OMac is still a test so not ruled out yet but I'd like to see Young played and developed into a permanent fixture replacing Jones. Has magnificent agility and athleticism for someone so big.

McDonald is definitely out, his test will be next week.

I agree about Newman and Saad, every player has bad moments but both were good for most of the first two games.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 30, 2022, 03:29:57 pm
McDonald is definitely out, his test will be next week.

I agree about Newman and Saad, every player has bad moments but both were good for most of the first two games.
Yep, I misread the the OMac injury report.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 30, 2022, 05:23:28 pm
Yep, I misread the the OMac injury report.

I was hoping you were right!

I guess it provides an opportunity for Young to show whether he's up to the task.  He seems to trust his judgement and attack the ball.  That's fine provided he takes the mark or kills the contest with a well-directed spoil.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: pinot on March 30, 2022, 05:24:14 pm
Newman wasn't bad - but Stocker is returning and Newy can't afford any poor quarters.
That's for the whole team really.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on March 30, 2022, 07:18:53 pm
Newman i had as one who would struggle to cement a spot if everyone was fit (Also Plowman and Setterfield)
With Saad, Williams, Docherty, McGovern, Weitering and Omac/Young as the 2nd tall, you have a pretty solid back 6. Newman, plowman, stocker and even setterfield as your 7th defender....some good players are going to miss out.

Nothing against Newman, always been a fan, but we simply can't pick every player that is good enough for a game
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Tragic on March 31, 2022, 07:58:29 am
I think Stocker is a monty once he is fit and back in form. The kid is tough as nails and has good skills. Second picked behind Crippa if i have any idea about the way Vossy thinks.

A good player will have to miss when he comes back in. Good problem to have.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on March 31, 2022, 08:14:35 am
I think Stocker is a monty once he is fit and back in form.
Not sure anybody including the captain is a walk up start under Voss, and I suspect that is partly why we've seen broad improvements in performance.

Nobody thinks they are safe, there is competition for every spot! ;)

Hypothetical;
Pre-2022 we lose Cripps or Walsh from the midfield, season disaster it's over, post-2021 we lose Cripps or Walsh from the midfield, not good but not season ending anymore. This is our new reality, we need to get use to it, our week to week fate no longer hinges on an individual, the days of Judd single-handed dragging the team across the line are long long gone. No more messiahs, just a team!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 31, 2022, 08:50:35 am
I was hoping you were right!

I guess it provides an opportunity for Young to show whether he's up to the task.  He seems to trust his judgement and attack the ball.  That's fine provided he takes the mark or kills the contest with a well-directed spoil.
From the limited time I have seen of him, Young looks like a more refined or polished version of Jones with his defensive efforts.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 31, 2022, 09:09:02 am
I'd have Stocker in for Williams and Young from what I have seen panics when under pressure with his disposal. He couldn't maintain his place in the Dogs backline after starring vs us in his 1st game and it's not like they are KP Defender rich.
I don't mind Young as a developing player but to me he isn't the finished product who I would trust vs anyone decent.
Williams gets a bit of ball as a rebounder but I'm not sold on him as defender and prefer going with Stocker when fit as imho he offers more as a close checking defender.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: shawny on March 31, 2022, 09:24:59 am
I'd have Stocker in for Williams and Young from what I have seen panics when under pressure with his disposal. He couldn't maintain his place in the Dogs backline after starring vs us in his 1st game and it's not like they are KP Defender rich.
I don't mind Young as a developing player but to me he isn't the finished product who I would trust vs anyone decent.
Williams gets a bit of ball as a rebounder but I'm not sold on him as defender and prefer going with Stocker when fit as imho he offers more as a close checking defender.

I agree re young but can’t see Williams being dropped imo. I would like to see him get a long settled run of games as a running HBF which is where he was proven as one of the comps elite in that role. This guy in that position is damaging and clean just think his fitness and being played out of position has delayed him being able to show how good he can be.

I would be persisting in him and think the club has invested too much in him to drop him unless his form leaves them with no option which IMHO it is far from that stage at the moment.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 31, 2022, 09:33:40 am
So would I EB. 
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 31, 2022, 10:09:37 am
I agree re young but can’t see Williams being dropped imo. I would like to see him get a long settled run of games as a running HBF which is where he was proven as one of the comps elite in that role. This guy in that position is damaging and clean just think his fitness and being played out of position has delayed him being able to show how good he can be.

I would be persisting in him and think the club has invested too much in him to drop him unless his form leaves them with no option which IMHO it is far from that stage at the moment.
You have Saad, Docherty and Newman all doing that rebounding defender role Imho, only Saad provides a player who can both defend his man and attack.
I just think we have one too many rebounder only types. For me Stocker is a more multi attributed player who also gives us a bit of grunt which you need vs certain players.
Williams I would use off the bench...
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: WASurfer on March 31, 2022, 12:26:53 pm
Funny how we were calling for Stocker to play more midfield in the last couple of years.....but now with Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy & Hewett as the main blokes, it's hard to see how Stocker gets a crack in the middle unless there's injuries or if it's just for short bursts.

I think his best role now is down back as a lock down small defender.....he's got some mongrel about him but can also run and carry a bit too. It might come down to horses for courses and a decision between him, Newman and Plowman.

Williams hasn't been outstanding in the first two weeks but IMO has played his role.....not trying to be a midfielder. He could possibly play off a wing at times?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 31, 2022, 12:44:09 pm
Nothing wrong with a surfeit of players competing like junkyard dogs for positions.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: WASurfer on March 31, 2022, 01:14:20 pm
Agree Cap....healthiest we've been for awhile now. It'll mean guys like Newnes will have to fight hard to get a game....similarly Dow, Cottrell etc.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on March 31, 2022, 01:55:23 pm
For those going it is a send off for Betts and sMurph this weekend.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: tonyo on March 31, 2022, 02:46:21 pm
Wingard has passed a fitness test and will play.  I always thought with hamstrings that when you thought you were fine, you needed to wait one more week, or it could get ugly part-way through the match.  
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Mav on March 31, 2022, 02:54:29 pm
Sometimes, a hamstring injury isn't a hamstring injury. Back-related hamstring injuries don't actually involve damage to the muscle or tendon: there's just referred pain from the back. That's not to say this was Wingard's issue as I haven't followed it closely.

I had a year of footy featuring weekly hamstring injuries or what I thought were hamstring injuries. Every week I'd feel like I pulled a hammie and sometimes I couldn't lift my legs while walking without feeling pain only to find that a few days later it seemed to be fine. Then rinse & repeat. They were definitely not hamstring injuries because they don't go away after a few days but I never found out what they were. The next season I had no problems.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: shawny on March 31, 2022, 04:06:16 pm
You have Saad, Docherty and Newman all doing that rebounding defender role Imho, only Saad provides a player who can both defend his man and attack.
I just think we have one too many rebounder only types. For me Stocker is a more multi attributed player who also gives us a bit of grunt which you need vs certain players.
Williams I would use off the bench...

I think Doc plays a little further up the ground these days so leaves Saad and Newman as the main running backs and I would play Williams over Newman if I had to pick out of those 2.

I really rate stocker he is hard as nails and look forward to him back in the team just not at Williams expense. 

Still nice problem we are having not knowing who to drop......feels like yesterday we were looking at who we could call on to improve us and the cupboard was usually bare.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 31, 2022, 06:19:42 pm
Gov out, great grrrrrrrr
Young in
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 31, 2022, 06:29:38 pm
Shoot !!!!!!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on March 31, 2022, 06:32:01 pm
Gov out, great grrrrrrrr
Young in

Sadly, it was only a matter of time!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: laj on March 31, 2022, 06:44:30 pm
In: Jordan Boyd, Adam Cerra, Jack Martin, Luke Parks, Lewis Young*
Out: Mitch McGovern (hamstring), Oscar McDonald (back)

New: Lewis Young* (Western Bulldogs), Jordan Boyd (Footscray VFL)

Interchange bench

Jordan Boyd

Adam Cerra

Lachie Fogarty

 

Matthew Kennedy

Jack Martin

Luke Parks

    
Marc Pittonet

Lachie Plowman

 
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: rocky on March 31, 2022, 06:50:40 pm
Bloody hell, Gov did it at training and is expected out for a month!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 31, 2022, 07:15:13 pm
Grade one, so a month minimum.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: pinot on March 31, 2022, 07:24:54 pm
Gov out for a couple of months due to its reoccuring nature,

Bad luck for him - need to get Marchy up and running as soon as we can.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on March 31, 2022, 07:42:43 pm
....and this is when we start missing jones.
Some criticize his haphazard nature, but he was available every week!

Gov/Omac both out and their backup Young (realistically 4th and last available KPD) to hold up alongside Weiters could be a worry.

However, if we dominate the midfield as much as we have in the first 2 games, the boys won't need to defend, so it might just be ok.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: bobby on March 31, 2022, 09:38:00 pm
Sadly I have no confidence that McGovern is going to get on the park on a regular basis. Too fragile.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Thryleon on March 31, 2022, 09:54:40 pm
Thats ok, marchbank will be available by round 4 and he will break down by round 8 in time for mcgovern to come back.  Between the two of them we'll have a footballer.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Professer E on March 31, 2022, 10:03:48 pm
Dunno why Martin is an automatic in,  needs to start doing a lot more.

Round three and the thin part of our list (tall defenders)  is already exposed.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on March 31, 2022, 10:07:42 pm
Thats ok, marchbank will be available by round 4 and he will break down by round 8 in time for mcgovern to come back.  Between the two of them we'll have a footballer.

Very very funny Thry ... one of your best :)
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Professer E on March 31, 2022, 10:11:23 pm
Unfortunately  I very much doubt we'll ever see him.  
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 31, 2022, 10:15:12 pm
Unfortunately  I very much doubt we'll ever see him.  
Tend to agree, reality is too that McGovern struggles to play a full season and misses
around a third of the games, Martin is similar.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: BluePhantom on March 31, 2022, 10:19:47 pm
Sadly I have no confidence that McGovern is going to get on the park on a regular basis. Too fragile.
McGlassern  :(
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on March 31, 2022, 10:33:19 pm
Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy, Jack Martin and Marc Pittonet have to be in the 22 and the sub will have to be either Luke Parks or Lachie Plowman.  Plowman got half a game last week so I don't think that they'll want him to run out a game in the VFL.  It wouldn't surprise if Parks got the nod but I would prefer Plowman's experience and steadiness.

   
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on April 01, 2022, 06:25:23 am
Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy, Jack Martin and Marc Pittonet have to be in the 22 and the sub will have to be either Luke Parks or Lachie Plowman.  Plowman got half a game last week so I don't think that they'll want him to run out a game in the VFL.  It wouldn't surprise if Parks got the nod but I would prefer Plowman's experience and steadiness.

   

Agree on the 4 you chose....but wouldn't be surprised if they make Martin  the sub instead and include one of plowman/parks in the 22....just for cover.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on April 01, 2022, 07:31:41 am
Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy, Jack Martin and Marc Pittonet have to be in the 22 and the sub will have to be either Luke Parks or Lachie Plowman.  Plowman got half a game last week so I don't think that they'll want him to run out a game in the VFL.  It wouldn't surprise if Parks got the nod but I would prefer Plowman's experience and steadiness.

Not confident about Parks at all.   
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 01, 2022, 09:48:14 am
Not confident about Parks at all.   
Ditto, think Plowman will be included for cover...
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on April 01, 2022, 12:17:41 pm
I saw a report that Crippa was going to miss with COVID, then realised what day it was.  Some April Fool's Day jokes aren't funny  ::)
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Lods on April 01, 2022, 02:37:06 pm
I saw a report that Crippa was going to miss with COVID, then realised what day it was.  Some April Fool's Day jokes aren't funny  ::)

The silly thing is that its being posted by different folks on just about every Carlton fan Facebook page.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on April 01, 2022, 03:53:01 pm
The silly thing is that its being posted by different folks on just about every Carlton fan Facebook page.

And I thought our supporters are smarter than the rest  ::)
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: townsendcalling on April 01, 2022, 05:39:41 pm
Big Boy McEvoy is out, freak training injury. Not sure how effective he is these days but it must weaken them.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: townsendcalling on April 01, 2022, 06:29:18 pm
Plowman in,  Martin emergency along with Parkes, Fogarty and Boyd.  Dow still not in the top 26.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: pinot on April 01, 2022, 06:34:08 pm
Like Plowman in the side - he is an underrated stopper. Nothing fancy about him but is tough and strong and usually gets the job done.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on April 01, 2022, 06:34:13 pm
Plowman in,  Martin emergency along with Parkes, Fogarty and Boyd.  Dow still not in the top 26.


Called it.

I think that makes the most sense from a team balance perspective.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LordLucifer on April 01, 2022, 07:39:36 pm
Plowman ........    ::)

The Hawks have McEvoy out with a neck injury which has to be some sort of benefit to us.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on April 02, 2022, 12:02:43 am
Plowman in,  Martin emergency along with Parkes, Fogarty and Boyd.  Dow still not in the top 26.

Dow was in the 26 last round, but he's got a fair bit of competition for a spot.

Martin missing out is a bit of a surprise but it's a good sign; reputation isn't as important as performance.

I think that Parks or Boyd will be the sub and Jack will be strutting his stuff in the VFL.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on April 02, 2022, 01:11:23 pm
Saad out (h and s p)
Boyd to debut in his place.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Blue Moon on April 02, 2022, 01:18:43 pm
Like Plowman in the side - he is an underrated stopper. Nothing fancy about him but is tough and strong and usually gets the job done.
What's going on here? Everyone knows Plowman is a whipping boy!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on April 02, 2022, 02:16:12 pm
Saad out (h and s p)
Boyd to debut in his place.
Saad has been a bit hot and cold the first two rounds, but Boyd hasn't really shined yet either.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on April 02, 2022, 02:31:15 pm
Saad has been a bit hot and cold the first two rounds, but Boyd hasn't really shined yet either.

My take on Boyd from the pre-season game(s) i saw him in was that he was dead last on the pecking order on our list and daylight was second last.

Now, i could see why we chose him when we did (even if he wasn't a big need - hello KPD!) but he did have a decent kick on him and didn't mind a run. Between him, and LOB, we didn't have much else (obviously behind Saad...and maybe Martin).
But his kicking was absolutely horrendous in the praccy matches and i can't see how it will improve with the increased pressure of an actual AFL game.
I hope i'm wrong, but i think this is our biggest selection blunder thus far.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on April 02, 2022, 02:36:35 pm
With Saad and Gov both out, we've lost some effective smart kicks to position out of our defense along with 3rd man up stuff. Midfield pressure will become even more important. Not a lot of creativity left in our defense now... probably just Williams. Boyd was very good in the Magoos last week... it's his big chance.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: JonDorotich on April 02, 2022, 03:00:41 pm
I’m a tad worried

Boyd, Newman, OBrien & Plowman in the 1s, whilst Dow, Martin, Kemp & Williamson languish in the 2s

I hope our selectors know what they’re doing.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: JonDorotich on April 02, 2022, 03:12:15 pm
My take on Boyd from the pre-season game(s) i saw him in was that he was dead last on the pecking order on our list and daylight was second last.

Now, i could see why we chose him when we did (even if he wasn't a big need - hello KPD!) but he did have a decent kick on him and didn't mind a run. Between him, and LOB, we didn't have much else (obviously behind Saad...and maybe Martin).
But his kicking was absolutely horrendous in the praccy matches and i can't see how it will improve with the increased pressure of an actual AFL game.
I hope i'm wrong, but i think this is our biggest selection blunder thus far.

He was very clearly off the pace at AFL level and that was only at the speed of a practice match. He was rushed into turnover after turnover.

Fingers crossed that it all works out
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: capcom on April 02, 2022, 03:28:32 pm
I’m a tad worried

Boyd, Newman, OBrien & Plowman in the 1s, whilst Dow, Martin, Kemp & Williamson languish in the 2s

I hope our selectors know what they’re doing.

You and me both ...
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 02, 2022, 04:43:17 pm
My take on Boyd from the pre-season game(s) i saw him in was that he was dead last on the pecking order on our list and daylight was second last.

Now, i could see why we chose him when we did (even if he wasn't a big need - hello KPD!) but he did have a decent kick on him and didn't mind a run. Between him, and LOB, we didn't have much else (obviously behind Saad...and maybe Martin).
But his kicking was absolutely horrendous in the praccy matches and i can't see how it will improve with the increased pressure of an actual AFL game.
I hope i'm wrong, but i think this is our biggest selection blunder thus far.
Boyds kicking is meant to be his strength but he couldn't guard an elephant trapped in a phone box. Like you I saw his kicking as poor under pressure in the praccy games and given he doesn't defend can't see him anywhere close to senior selection material. I'd even have to suggest LOB is more capable of being able to play defensively when required...
Good luck to Boyd in his 1st game but his selection makes me nervous, hope he doesn't get Bruest as opponent...
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 02, 2022, 04:50:27 pm
Saad has been a bit hot and cold the first two rounds, but Boyd hasn't really shined yet either.
Saad has been good especially round 1....big loss imho.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on April 02, 2022, 05:04:58 pm
Saad has been good especially round 1....big loss imho.
He has offered some good run and pace, but his disposal has been a tad ordinary, mostly long bomb hook kicks, with the odd accidental pass. Luckily they have come off, and he looks like a champion, but it's hellishly predictable that sort of thing can go either way and it will eventually even out luck wise.

I can't be a hypocrite, if I bagged SPS for kicking sideways or Simmo for taking safe option long bombs under pressure, I must apply the same rules to all other players I critique. So until I see Saad thread some needles I'll reserve my opinion.

Personally, off the HBF I think the bloke we are really going to miss is Gov, he's the one who has been more creative and attacking than any other. His disposal has been extraordinarily good.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: pinot on April 02, 2022, 05:12:06 pm
Saad is a big loss
Boyd has big shoes to fill.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on April 02, 2022, 05:18:13 pm
This game has become a real test now, if we get a win we might be the real deal this time on the merry-go-round.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: madbluboy on April 02, 2022, 05:33:56 pm
Wasn't Saad 100% efficiency in rd 1?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: Baggers on April 02, 2022, 05:45:26 pm
This game has become a real test now, if we get a win we might be the real deal this time on the merry-go-round.

Tend to agree. Very big test. Our backline now looks to be lacking 'rebound bite' ... a little thin for options. 'Team' defense will be tested.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on April 02, 2022, 06:54:43 pm
My take on Boyd from the pre-season game(s) i saw him in was that he was dead last on the pecking order on our list and daylight was second last.

Now, i could see why we chose him when we did (even if he wasn't a big need - hello KPD!) but he did have a decent kick on him and didn't mind a run. Between him, and LOB, we didn't have much else (obviously behind Saad...and maybe Martin).
But his kicking was absolutely horrendous in the praccy matches and i can't see how it will improve with the increased pressure of an actual AFL game.
I hope i'm wrong, but i think this is our biggest selection blunder thus far.

Apparently Boyd's disposal efficiency in the VFL last week was 92%.

His disposal wasn't all that bad in the pre-season games, he just made some very bad decisions that resulted in turnovers and opposition goals.  Hopefully, he'll keep it simple, take the best option and leave the pin-point passes to his more experienced teammates.

Going into a game with two newby defenders would normally make me nervous but our defensive pressure all over the ground has improved to the point where our back six aren't under the pressure that they have been in past seasons.  We're ranked first in least opponent inside 50s per game and that's got to make life easier for our defenders.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on April 02, 2022, 07:05:28 pm
Wasn't Saad 100% efficiency in rd 1?

As near as damn it!  Not so good in Round 2 at only 73%.

Saad's ability to hit a teammate kicking across his body is uncanny.  We'll miss his breaking the lines, kicking penetration and the way he disrupts the opposition defence.  He gained 499m in Round 1 and 391 in Round 2.  Hopefully, having five elite midfielders on the ground will cover that.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: madbluboy on April 02, 2022, 07:23:05 pm
This game has become a real test now, if we get a win we might be the real deal this time on the merry-go-round.

2012 happened lol.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: LP on April 02, 2022, 08:33:03 pm
Wasn't Saad 100% efficiency in rd 1?
Those long kicks that clear the zone but go to nobody or even an opponent are considered efficient, that is why Dangerflog rates so well for those 65m bombs he kicks to nobody.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: madbluboy on April 02, 2022, 09:00:00 pm
Those long kicks that clear the zone but go to nobody or even an opponent are considered efficient, that is why Dangerflog rates so well for those 65m bombs he kicks to nobody.

I agree on Danger but Saad is probably our best user of the footy.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: WASurfer on April 03, 2022, 12:22:36 pm
Danger game, but on paper, we still look much stronger than them. If the midfield fires like the in the first two rounds we should get way more scoring opportunities. Unfortunately it's these sorts of games in recent years, ones we should win, where we've fallen over. Win this week and one of only 3 undefeated teams and GC next week. None are gimme games but a 4-0 start is achievable and would set us up for a real crack at finals footy.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: kruddler on April 03, 2022, 12:35:30 pm
Just for reference, we are =5th favourite for the flag with Geelong after their efforts last night.

Dees
Lions
Swans
Dogs
=Blues
=Cats

Hawks despite winning their first 2 are behind the bombers who are now 0-3 and dead last on the ladder in terms of odds for a flag.

We SHOULD demolish them. Lets hope we do.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn
Post by: DJC on April 03, 2022, 12:47:03 pm
Jack Martin is our sub.