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Topic: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide (Read 50237 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #210 –
Quote from: Jofo on
I'd love to know how you'd do it. I really don't see any other way. Maybe you know John Elliot? Maybe you are John Elliot?????

We won't without aggressive trading or AFL help, don't hold you breath for AFL help.

The aggressive trading part is Cripps and Weitering, they are both worth two low draft picks each. Turn two aces into four, maybe, but you'd want to be confident of the draft and recruiter! ;)
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #211 –
Quote from: LP on
We won't without aggressive trading or AFL help, don't hold you breath for AFL help.

The aggressive trading part is Cripps and Weitering, they are both worth two low draft picks each. Turn two aces into four, maybe, but you'd want to be confident of the draft and recruiter! ;)

I think I'll stick with the current plan.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #212 –
Quality players are so hard to get that I wouldn't trade out the few we've got.  Even at 50% hit rate, chances are you'd break even - at best.
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #213 –
If he was 3 years younger I'd just about sell the farm for Robbie Gray.
You can fool some of the people some of the time.......................................

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #214 –
Quote from: cimm1979 on
If he was 3 years younger I'd just about sell the farm for Robbie Gray.

They wouldn't take the deal.  ;D
This digital world is too much for us insects to understand.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #215 –
Quote from: LP on
We won't without aggressive trading or AFL help, don't hold you breath for AFL help.

The aggressive trading part is Cripps and Weitering, they are both worth two low draft picks each. Turn two aces into four, maybe, but you'd want to be confident of the draft and recruiter! ;)

Potentially the stupidest direction the club could take. Read through the last 10 afl drafts and see how many gun top tens don't make it let alone become a gun

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #216 –
Quote from: Boundaryrider on
Potentially the stupidest direction the club could take. Read through the last 10 afl drafts and see how many gun top tens don't make it let alone become a gun

x2. Entirely pointless and entirely extremely high risk (with medium prospect of success).

In my world that equals stay the f... away from that deal.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #217 –
Quote from: LP on
We won't without aggressive trading or AFL help, don't hold you breath for AFL help.

The aggressive trading part is Cripps and Weitering, they are both worth two low draft picks each. Turn two aces into four, maybe, but you'd want to be confident of the draft and recruiter! ;)

We love to make excuses for Gibbs and Murphy who have netted 2 B&Fs between them in almost 20 years of football, and you want to trade out the two future stars of the club?

????

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #218 –
Quote from: JonHenry on
We love to make excuses for Gibbs and Murphy who have netted 2 B&Fs between them in almost 20 years of football, and you want to trade out the two future stars of the club?

????

Apart from seasons ruined by injury, they've both consistently been top 5 in the B+F since 2009.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #219 –
Quote from: PaulP on
Apart from seasons ruined by injury, they've both consistently been top 5 in the B+F since 2009.


There's someone consistently in the top 5 B+F in the local underage club. Doesn't make them elite AFL players.
Someone will always finish top 5 in the B+F, they just haven't had a great load of competition.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #220 –
Well someone best explain to me how trading out Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer guarantees us excellent replacements from 1/2 the number of low draft picks, while trading out Cripps and Weitering for 2x as many low draft picks gives us less chance of find suitable replacements. Because that is basically the rationale many posters on here are arguing and it's a flat out contradiction, an error in logic, just plain wrong!

In summary this is what many were arguing about Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer before I raised the Cripps / Weitering trade option;
---Trading out Player A, B or C will give us valuable low picks we need to draft quality replacements. Young players equal or better in value than those players we let go with good long term prospects.
then after I raised the Cripps /Weitering subject the tune changed;
---You can't trade out Player A or B for low draft picks, the success of finding an equal or equivalent long term prospect is too low. Getting draft picks won't guarantee finding a successful replacement, Trading away Player A or B is trading away the clubs future!
You cannot have your cake and eat it too!

The long term prospects of draftees and the chance of draft success are not variables dependant on which players you trade away for the pick!

The only variable draft success depends on is really the number of picks, the more low picks you have the greater the chance of success, and that seems to be the SOS strategy.

So if you want to be logical about it, the best trade option is to trade the players that get you the most low draft picks! ;D

It's the logic of Moneyball people, math does not lie and your opinions makes no difference to it's result!
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #221 –
Quote from: LP on
Well someone best explain to me how trading out Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer guarantees us excellent replacements from 1/2 the number of low draft picks, while trading out Cripps and Weitering for 2x as many low draft picks gives us less chance of find suitable replacements. Because that is basically the rationale many posters on here are arguing and it's a flat out contradiction, an error in logic, just plain wrong!

In summary this is what many were arguing about Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer before I raised the Cripps / Weitering trade option;
---Trading out Player A, B or C will give us valuable low picks we need to draft quality replacements. Young players equal or better in value than those players we let go with good long term prospects.
then after I raised the Cripps /Weitering subject the tune changed;
---You can't trade out Player A or B for low draft picks, the success of finding an equal or equivalent long term prospect is too low. Getting draft picks won't guarantee finding a successful replacement, Trading away Player A or B is trading away the clubs future!
You cannot have your cake and eat it too!

The long term prospects of draftees and the chance of draft success are not variables dependant on which players you trade way! The only variable draft success depends on is the number of picks, the more picks you have the greater the chance of success. So if you want to be logical about it the best trade option is to trade the players that get you the most picks! ;D

I think you're exaggeratting a touch ('guaranteed' and what not).

Without derailing this thread...come over here -> http://www.carltonsc.com/index.php?topic=3416.0
....and i'll explain.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #222 –
Quote from: kruddler on

There's someone consistently in the top 5 B+F in the local underage club. Doesn't make them elite AFL players.
Someone will always finish top 5 in the B+F, they just haven't had a great load of competition.

This argument is always just around the corner. I never said either of them were elite. The point being made is that both have been consistent performers for our club under mostly trying conditions. Their potential has never been realized in part because of the poor quality around them. If the club thought they were sh1t, they would have moved them on by now. We all wish they were Dangerfield, Selwood, Hodge etc. But they're not - doesn't make them crap.

Can you recall any occasion when either player has been dropped to the 2's, for bad attitude, loss of form, off field indiscretions, anything at all ? I draw your attention to Jack Watts at the Demons, who has been publicly admonished for poor attitude, and I also draw your attention to the plethora of players on our list who have suffered this fate.

Can you recall any occasion when either player has been put up for trade ? Can you recall what happened last season, and the club's stance on trading Gibbs ? Can you tell me how many players the club has traded / delisted during the playing careers of these two ?

Can you explain why MM, a coach of 30 years standing in the game, referred to Gibbs as untouchable ?

Can you explain why under the Bolton-led reset, Murph was reelected captain ?

Can you tell me why these two allegedly soft players, do not suffer the same fate as their soft colleagues, i.e relegated to the 2's (Boeky, KJ and others), or delisted (Everitt) ? The club is clearly capable of taking that action when it sees fit.

I'll tell you why - because even though they're not out and out champions, they are in fact very decent players, and the club treats them accordingly. 

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #223 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I'll tell you why - because even though they're not out and out champions, they are in fact very decent players, and the club treats them accordingly.

...and i've never said any different.

Doesn't change anything i've said though.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #224 –
Quote from: kruddler on
...and i've never said any different.

Doesn't change anything i've said though.

What is it that you've said ? That they should be traded if a beneficial deal comes along ? If so, I agree 100%.