The Wagner Telegram channels are reporting that it was the Russian military who shot it down, if they wanted to fake his death it would be far more likely to be written that Ukraine hit it.
This though is a great day for Russia and the world and a day of celebration. This guy needed to be dead, he was one of the most evil people on the planet and his death is not one to be mourned. The world's worst case scenario was that he one day took over from Putin. This would have triggered world war iii
There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that he is dead and it was not an accident.
It's bizarre....but it is Russia. And bizarre is pretty much the norm. So... Quite possibly a false flag operation. But Prigozhin is on record as saying the reasons for the Ukraine war were baseless. He's been branded a traitor by Putin...and seemingly sent into exile. Where are his troops going. Back, to base or back to the conflict....or to Belarus to come into Ukraine on another front.
Yes in Russia it is very difficult to determine what is what when it comes to Russia. This 'intervention' of Lukashenko smells.. Lukashenko has no power in Russia, Prigozhin knows he would be targeted to be killed if everything is as it is being reported. They kill those who disagree with Putin and the regime, this act goes far beyond that. Is this a way to move Prigozhin and his troops into Belarus to start an offense in northern Ukraine? Does anyone believe Prigozhin is now 'out' of the war? Is Lukashenko being used as a 'mediator' because the government couldn't be seen to directly negotiate with Prigozhin? If all is as reported, then Moscow had to have been fearful, because they don't have the troops inside Russia to protect Russia and the convoy was moving fast, but yesterday is a very confusing day and it is really difficult to understand the actual meaning of it all until the next steps.
Is this a 'way out'? Putin can claim to have been given bad information by defence folks and they bear the brunt of what happened. A risky strategy for Putin, because it shows a weakness and naivety (not a good thing for a Russian leader, It also may not stop the fighting because the Ukranians, would keep coming, to take back all lost territory.
or
Is it a case of Prigozhin's group, having served their purpose, now need to be disbanded...and the Wagner leader 'put away'.
There is definitely a case for this giving Putin a "way out", though leaving Ukraine would be unpopular, especially within his inner circle, but if he was to remove Gerasimov and Shoigu , then that takes some pressure off. If he was able to play this as a lie perpetuated on the Russian people by leaders who wanted to take control of Russia, it would give an avenue out, even though it would be transparently ridiculous to the rest of society, Russians are used to buying the lies from their television screens.
I think still more likely Prigozhin loses, but the fact Putin didn't criticize Prigozhin in name, nor the Wagner group seems to suggest he is waiting to see which way the wind blows
One thing to remember is that in the last coup staged when the military locked up Gorbachev, the people of Moscow did come out to the streets and engage in battles against the army. There are a LOT of people who still support Putin and any attempt to try and oust him by force would very likely see average Russian's risk their lives to protest against this.
Putin has (pointedly without actually naming Prigozhin), just given a televised speech declaring the action illegal and vowing revenge on anyone who continues to take part. A lot of people in the normal army are fearful of Wagner, they are easily the most experience Russian fighters (and some of the most experienced fighters in the world) and they are totally ruthless, this could explain why they have not intercepted Wagner. The key will be to see if many join them.
If a few thousand standard Russian troops did join with Wagner, then you can imagine this reaching the streets of moscow. The other thing against Prigozhin, is he is reviled and feared by many inside the Kremlin. They worry about someone who criticizes to often and so easily and continues to get away with this. It is hard to imagine him getting broad support unless Putin orders them to accept him. The most likely outcome to end this is the arrest or death of Prigozhin still.
There is talk of gains made by Ukraine today, so perhaps they are already taking advantage of this situation.
So i wrote a while back that Prigozhin was the most quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia. In the last 12 hours, this has come to fruition. He has turned away from Ukraine and started marching towards Moscow.
He has already surrounded the government building in Rostov, he has over 25,000 troops and it appears he is hell bent on forcing Shoigu out. The big question remains on whether his intentions include trying to take the Kremlin, or whether or not he sees himself as being like the Steltsy in the times of the tsars and thinks he is doing this to rid the Kremlin of evil doers poisoning the mind of Putin.
It has not been an uncommon theme in Russia for the elite (and before them the streltsy) to rid Russia of influential people. Peter the great was fearful of the streltsy from the time he witnessed them massacre his uncle and others when he was a child, the elite killed Rasputin etc etc. Prigozhin might actually consider himself as doing a duty for the people of Russia (who LOVE a strong man).
He more likely though is making a serious power play. Moscow has started fortifying itself for an assault, an arrest warrant has been issued for Prigozhin and it is hard to see this ending in any other way than the death of Prigozhin or a civil war of sorts.
What it means for the war in Ukraine is also interesting. If Prigozhin does continue his march on Moscow, you would think that they would need to pull back fire power to address this issue, this could create a real opportunity for Ukraine's counter offense.
Another option (though an unlikely one), is that this is a ruse to sucker Ukraine into overextending, but the US and Ukraine will have visuals on approximately how many troops have left Ukraine and crossed over into Russia.
I know inside Russia they are advising people to stay in their homes and they interrupted normal broadcasting to post urgent messages to citizens.
I don't want Putin to take over Ukraine, but I REALLY don't want Prigozhin to take over Moscow. It is still early in the morning in Russia (Moscow is 7 hours behind us, so 6:30 am), the next 12 hours will tell a lot more about the situation
Pride in ones country is something that can be had without forcing it upon others with the introduction of a flag. This is where the issue is.
Support your player, but just like the US and Old Glory, shoving your national flag in peoples faces constantly will lead to issues and it all stems back to pride.
Read the room at least.
So then all flags of all nations should be banned from tennis events around the world? Of course there are other ways to support your country than raising a flag, but sport is parochial in nature.
This doesn't address whether or not the Russian flag itself should be banned.
I don't have an issue if all flags are banned, I don't even have an issue if they do choose to ban a specific flag and the Russian one at the present time has a cause to be banned because of the angst it can create for certain individuals seeing it waved.
Personally I think all flags of all nature are a bit obnoxious (including the Carlton ones at our games) because when waved about they hinder the views of others.. but people in Australia generally have a right to wave flags at sporting events.
Perhaps Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi Should be banned as well if we are considering obnoxious ways of supporting individuals in events that are not nationality based.
Absolutely the same as in many sports, but in most sports Russian and Belorussian athletes need to play under a neutral flag, which they are doing in all tennis events. This doesn't stop patriotic supporters displaying flags to support their countrymen and women. All of which is quite reasonable, but this conflict creates a most unusual circumstance requiring an unusual response.
Now whilst I can appreciate that this is an inflammatory situation, how do we feel about this? Should people not be able to support a Russian athlete at the Australian open?
I found myself wondering why the backlash. There will always be the idea that someone is unhappy to see a flag of another nation somewhere, but provided they arent making a political statement with it, or that flag doesnt represent something like the Nazi flag (without having a better example off the top of my head at the minute) shouldnt this be fair play?
Just curious, and checking what people's thought process is here.
Personally I understand it, but I don't really like it either (banning flags). I think the problem is that either way there is the potential for one of 2 groups to be ostracized and that the Aus Open (and other events) need to decide which group will be impacted.
It is true that Russians should be able to support Russian athletes with pride, they should be able to show pride in their heritage and their homeland without prejudice and supporting the Russian flag is different to supporting the Z symbol or even the Soviet flag which would be inappropriate as it could be used to insinuate that Moscow should control Kiev.
However what is probable is that a lot of people would use these flags as a symbol of aggression as well towards Ukrainian players and this is unacceptable. Already a number of Ukrainians have indicated they didn't even want to face a Russian athlete and this situation is, of course, understandable, but then seeing the flag of the aggressor that is raising their flag above your cities after killing your citizens, is really intolerable.
Perhaps the Australian Open (and other events) could consider are more measured approach and allow the Russian flag to be displayed only in games with Russian competitors and only when a Ukrainian is not one of the players on the court. Whilst Ukrainians would rather see the flag totally banished, I personally in a nation of free speech (with the exception of hate speech etc), would prefer to see this approach, which respects both the feelings of Ukrainian athletes and the rights of the spectators.
There has been discussion around Putin being ill and who would be his replacement, one person who without any doubt is trying to muscle into a position to take power is Prighozin
Following is his comments around the closure of Youtube in Russia. If you look at his comments (the website is in Russian, but the using an index like Yandex Translate will give the most accurate translation), it becomes very obvious that Russia is hurtling back towards the days of the USSR. It was already heading steadily in this direction and whilst it won't have any of the benefits of a communist state, it is going to towards total control and make look to end up blocking the borders to stop people leaving.
The following is an example of the types of prisoners they are released to fight and will now be released back into society, because if they agreed to kill Ukrainians they deserve to be free.
Prighozin is quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia and if he took over Russia after Putin, that would put him as the most dangerous man in the world. The reports that are coming out of Ukraine of the way he is using the prisoners is an example of just how brutal he is. One example is that they are basically sent forward in numbers to be shot and killed, if they take a backwards step or drop to take cover instead of moving forward, the Wagner mercenaries shoot them as a warning to others. The idea is that buy moving forward they can uncover the positions of the Ukrainian shooting at the "bait".
Now I generally don't have a lot of pity for people like the guy mentioned in the article above as I think he deserves to rot in jail, but no one deserves to be used as human bait, it is just barbaric.
Ukraine war was sold to the Russian people as Putin coming to the aid of ethnic/pro Russian folk in the border regions who he said were being poorly treated and he was going to their rescue. Hitler used the same marketing 101 tactics when he invaded Poland and that he was looking after/saving ethnic Germans who were being oppressed..
Of course he used the same playbook in Sutendland in Czechoslovakia. In Czech these were Austro-Hungarian lands with a large portion in the border regions that spoke German and it was these German speaking people that Hitler wanted to "rescue". Putin of course told lies that Russians could not speak Russian in Ukraine, they were being beaten and murdered just for the use of this language. It is true of course that there was in some areas conflicts over the use of Russian, but it was blown completely out of proportion as is the way with propaganda. It helped the Russian cause as well that Ukraine passed a series of laws that allowed Russia to seize on this "russophobia", I think in hindsight a number of these laws were not very well thought out.
But like all things it is a convenient half truth as Russia has suppressed many languages and cultures over time, including Ukrainians who had their language banned a number of times when under the control of the Russian Empire and again during the USSR. They also suppressed Jews and the Hebrew language, the Tartars, the Caucasians etc etc. Now of course the average Russian knows very little about any of this, because it is not taught in history in the schools, the only thing talked about is the russophobia and how disgusting it is when a culture (change to The Russian Culture) is suppressed.
That being said back to the war for a moment. I believe it's easy for the Russian people to get behind the war in Ukraine because they will feel its their own land been taken off them since whenever. I state this because I know of people who would be of the same opinion pretty much in a half a dozen countries with a portion who might consider themselves an independent nation. It would be viewed the same globally, taking back whats rightfully theirs, irrespective of what the rest of the world thinks about it. When you recognise this factor its easier to understand why this happens. That doesn't make it right either. These mentalities are not about right or wrong. National identity. Etc. They are very much an opinion. China and Taiwan is the same. An opinion that one nation is separate to the other. The fact the world recognises it is largely political and a collection of opinions designed to favour an outcome that isn't always clear to the rest of us.
You are correct that a lot of people consider Ukraine to be Russian land and if you go back to the origins of Russia, Kiev was the 2nd capital (after Novgorod, which was the original capital of Rurik). Of course the Kievan Rus was in fact a different country from what Russia is now and there was no Moscow, but then the 3rd capital of the Kievan Rus was in modern day Romania. The thing with Russia is, if there is a land they have ever conquered they consider it theirs in perpetuity and it is sold to them that this was stolen from them. Many Russians don't consider that Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia have a right to independence and Russia was robbed of these territories when Gorbachev betrayed the nation. Of course this is all ridiculous, because if they want to go through historical ownership of lands, then all of Eastern Russia should be handed back to the locals such as Dagestan, Circassia, Chechnya etc and of course Kalingrad should not be Russian either. It really is a completely dystopian world in Russia and yes you are right it is very easy for Russians to get behind whatever the Government tells them, especially when the "scholar" Putin publishes articles such as this http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
Of course it is a distortion of facts and incomplete, but to the average Russian this is a faithful and complete retelling of history.
Ukraine are big into exporting Agriculture products, they are a major supplier in the world for a few products in some cases and its worth a lot of money. Putin though wants more than that and he wants to be a war hero like Stalin or a big name winner like Brezhnev who presided over Cold war Russia which is an era Putin admired. Ukraine has the export resources appeal for the money but also had the advantage of being a non NATO country which made it appear a safer easier target on paper.
I agree that there is a legacy part to this invasion and it is a significant part. Russia's greatest ever hero is Peter the Great, Putin references his often and he is universally admired within Russia. There is absolutely no doubt at all that his aim is to be seen in the same light as Peter. Though it would be interesting if he was ever given the title of "great" as Russia already has a Vladimir the Great. It is important though to not discount the money element as it is also extremely significant, whilst average Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians live poorly, the elite live incredible lives and their wealth is absolutely staggering, there are kickbacks at every single level of government and this needs to be paid for, so money they were bringing in from Ukraine was extremely significant in my opinion
Belarus is a puppet state of Russia, Lukashenko is a lap dog of Putin
As was Ukraine with Yanukovych in control. Unfortunately Ukraine/Belarus and Russia are/were all plutocracies with full blown corruption to a level that is almost impossible to fathom. The powers in Moscow would have been receiving huge kickbacks from the corruption in Kiev and there is little doubt in my mind that is one of the biggest reasons (as well as Putin's desire to build his legacy) for this invasion, as well as the invasion of Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2014 after the revolution. The revolution would have cost Moscow billions.
Russia would love to either take all of Ukraine back or install another puppet government back in control to keep their coffers kicking over.
Propaganda in Russia is a strong weapon and because it is so successful in Russia, not all youth are against Putin and the war. It is true the biggest group of detractors are the young, but there are plenty of young who support it as well. Even some very educated Russians I know truly believe (for example) that Poland owes Russia/USSR a debt of gratitude for World War II, which of course is insane. They think this, because they are told from the time they are in school that this is the case and that Poles are russophobes for having any ill feeling or mistrust towards Moscow.
The older generation (even 30+) strongly believe what they watch on tv and those in the 35-50 year age bracket in particular would be some of the most vociferous in their support of Putin and everything Russia 1 news tells them. This is because they genuinely believe that Russia would have disintegrated after the mayhem of the 90s if Putin didn't take over. Of course this ignores the fact that Putin was absolutely criminal in his dealings when working in St Petersburg post communism and strongly contributed to the troubles everyday Russians experienced. They only look at the 1991-1999 period as a horror period that improved once Putin took the helm.
So you see that progression, then everyday for 21 years there has been a tightening on what is reported as Putin builds a cult of personality culture. The internet is almost irrelevant for most Russians, even a large percentage of those that do not believe what is on the tv, still believe the internet if full of western lies aimed to tear the superpower Russia down.
In a charming new development, Russian businesses are handing out leaflets to staff on what to do if their city is attacked. When one considers that even the government understand 100% that this is only possible if they use nuclear weapons and in fact if they start a nuclear war (rather than tactical nuclear weapons), then this is more than a little bit of a worry
