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Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2400 –
Quote from: Lods on
I suspect most of us feel the US Electoral process is a bit of a dog's breakfast.

One of the most concerning things in terms of stability is the gap between the vote count ending and the inauguration of the incoming President.
A 'wounded' Donald Trump is President for the rest of this month, all of December and most of January.
Normally it's a time for a tidy-up and preparing briefings for the incoming administration.
This isn't a normal President.
That is how the lame duck session has been used recently. But the original reason for it was to allow firstly the Electoral College and then Congress to assemble at a time when the horse was the fastest mode of transport. In a large country that was keen to expand, it was necessary to allow a lot of time for travel. Originally, Inauguration Day occurred in April!

The extended lame duck period is a relic of the past and should be ditched. If the Electoral College were abolished and the President were to be elected solely on the nationwide popular vote, the President could assume power on certification of results. If some period is required to allow the President Elect to put together a Cabinet, then it should be a small period with a clear caretaker policy enshrined in legislation.

Trump won’t be the first outgoing President to try to salt the fields out of vindictiveness. Trump shows it isn’t sensible to trust that outgoing Presidents will follow a tradition of promoting a smooth transition of power.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2401 –
Quote from: Mav on
That is how the lame duck session has been used recently. But the original reason for it was to allow firstly the Electoral College and then Congress to assemble at a time when the horse was the fastest mode of transport. In a large country that was keen to expand, it was necessary to allow a lot of time for travel.

The extended lame duck period is a relic of the past and should be ditched. If the Electoral College were abolished and the President were to be elected solely on the nationwide popular vote, the President would assume power on certification of results.

I guess the problem with simply declaring it on a population vote is similar to the problem we face, and overcome with our electorates and then the PM being determined by the party that wins most of those.
A population only vote would be heavily weighted to the opinions of the folks in the big cities and big states.
We'd all wish "we could be California girls."

The US House and Senate offsets that to some extent and would give some representation to the rural areas but the Presidential race would largely depend on the big population areas.
We've seen it to a large extent in this election where a mass of Red in a state has been cancelled by a small patch of Blue in a major city.

The major problem seems to be that there is such a variation in State 'procedures' and 'rules' in terms of conducting the elections.
I'm also wondering about the level of two-party scrutineering, whether it existed and how that also varied from State to State.
If that was properly in place, Trump's dubious claims will quickly be shot down.
 

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2402 –
Quote from: Mav on
Trump won’t be the first outgoing President to try to salt the fields out of vindictiveness. Trump shows it isn’t sensible to trust that outgoing Presidents will follow a tradition of promoting a smooth transition of power.
I've read elsewhere that the moment the election is certified, the keys to the nukes go immediately to Biden, as does command over the military and security intelligence organisations.

In this regard, if Trump fully runs off the rails it is not inconceivable he'll be frog marched out of the Whitehouse.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2403 –
I believe that the Republicans and Democrats have had scrutineers in all vote counts. If they disagree with how a particular ballot will be treated, a neutral arbiter decides. Trump is just lying about secret vote counting. A lot of centres have cameras which enable outsiders to see what’s going on. I think Trump wants his good ‘ol boys to be “poll watchers” intimidating the electoral workers (perhaps while displaying firearms).

I don’t see why country voters should have greater say over the election of presidents than city-dwellers. In Australia, the Prime Minister is elected by the party with a majority of seats in the House of Reps. Each seat represents an electorate of the same population (as far as possible) as any other throughout the country. Country electorates can be many times the geographical size of inner-city electorates as a result. The Senate, on the other hand, gives Tasmanian voters more power than voters in Victoria.




Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2404 –
Quote from: Mav on


Trump won’t be the first outgoing President to try to salt the fields out of vindictiveness. Trump shows it isn’t sensible to trust that outgoing Presidents will follow a tradition of promoting a smooth transition of power.


I've got a feeling the Whitehouse shredding machines will be working overtime before we get to Inauguration day....
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2405 –
Quote from: LP on
I've read elsewhere that the moment the election is certified, the keys to the nukes go immediately to Biden, as does command over the military and security intelligence organisations.
AFAIK, that’s not right. The outgoing President controls the White House and usually lives there until 20 Jan. The President Elect is certainly given the same briefings by the security agencies as the incumbent but is expected to stay out of foreign affairs for fear of inconsistent policies being pursued.

PS: IIRC, General Flynn is currently being prosecuted for lying to the FBI about phoning the Russian Ambassador about US foreign policy after Trump had already tapped him to be his National Security Adviser upon his inauguration. He wanted to deny it because he knew he shouldn’t have made the call.

Edit: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/michael-flynn-sergey-kislyak-transcript-december-2016-phone-call-2020-5?r=US&IR=T.
The call was made in December following Obama kicking out Russian embassy staff in retaliation for election interference.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2406 –
Quote from: LP on
I've read elsewhere that the moment the election is certified, the keys to the nukes go immediately to Biden, as does command over the military and security intelligence organisations.

Until Jan 20th (assuming Trump loses) he remains commander in chief.  Only then does the baton pass

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2407 –
Quote from: capcom on
Until Jan 20th (assuming Trump loses) he remains commander in chief.  Only then does the baton pass
That is not at all what I have heard at all.

btw., if it is actually deadlocked, and only if it is actually deadlocked, apparently it's hard coded in the constitution that at 1pm on the 6th of the Jan a choice is made by the VP casting his vote. But there is almost zero chance of that happening this year, but the GOP want to paint it as a possible to rally supporters. If they can rally enough support, Trump will call out the National Guard.

As I heard it explained if Biden is declared elected by the commission he immediately has the keys to the nukes and control of the military and intelligence services, no question about it. Any power remaining in Trump's hands is therefore limited. The laws were written when horse and carriage was the only means of transport, so the timelines and authorities can be deliberately blurred, but the military have no such issues to deal with, whoever is declared winner is the authority.

Trump is apparently using tactics only tried once before, in the late 1800s to invalidate the vote entirely and have the GOP State Governors choose and send their own Electors.

It seems the residency in the Whitehouse is somewhat decorative if you do not control the military. It's why they have zero fear of Trump going apecrap if he's declared a loser, he has no real power in the lame duck period.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2408 –
LP?

According to the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, Trump would cease to be president on noon of Jan. 20 if Congress does not certify him as the winner, passing his authority as commander in chief of the military to the acting president, the speaker of the House of Representatives.

I'm not discussing hypotheticals of any in betweens, simply the Act.  Pretty clear

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2409 –
LP, Capcom is 100% right. I kind of said the same but less clearly than Capcom did. You can’t have 2 Commanders-in-Chief. Trump owns the Situation Room until 20/1. The Joint Chiefs of Staff report to him. Secretary of Defence Esper is his guy and loses his position only on Inuguration Day. Same is true for DNI Radcliffe and Secretary of State Pompeo. The Ambassadors are all Trump’s guys and gals. How could Biden hope to transact military and diplomatic business when he has no means of commanding the military or the diplomats? What’s he going to do with the nuclear codes when he only has a daily briefing and CNN to inform him about what’s going on in the world?

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2410 –
There are constitutional concerns regarding the Succession Act as some think the Constitution didn’t allow Congress to provide for a lawmaker to take control of the administrative arm of the US Government. This argument suggests that only cabinet members should be in the line of succession after the President and Vice President. This would mean Secretary of State Pompeo would be next in line. But what happens on 20 January when Cabinet Secretaries lose their positions automatically? This is just another example of the inadequacies of the Constitution if you strip away the conventions that make it work and have a Supreme Court that likes to hold seances to figure out what a bunch of 18th Century dudes were thinking.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2411 –
The new Congress formally begins on Jan 3rd, the date for the Inauguration is somewhat arbitrary.

"The Process" as historically implemented is complicated because things do not happen as precedents would suggest. The Trump tactic to try and remove faith in the popular vote and bring in Governor chosen Electors initiates the 12th Amendment, which unless there is some tactical change in the interim requires a joint sitting of the house on the 6th of Jan with a decision at 1pm. But that is 3 days after the new Congress.

If the Congress appears corrupt or is unable to make a decision, any disquiet from the public brings the Insurrection Act into play, if triggers are meet it allows the use of the US military against US citizens. Apparently it has happened before.

It seems that the ultimate power in the Lame Duck Phase sits with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and they can somewhat arbitrarily decide who gets the keys to the nukes. The consensus is that the Joint Chiefs are unlikely to move against the popular vote if Biden has already been declared the winner. Apparently there is a legal precedent going back to the Civil War, which was delayed by the Supreme Court when they ruled going to war during the lame duck phase was illegal, in that bipartisan support was needed and wasn't available. So while the constitutions dates and times are hard written, the consensus is that the military would never act otherwise no matter what Trump wants. Jan 20th is the very very latest date for a decisive decision, in the interim Trump is likely to need bipartisan support from Biden to do anything in lunacy!
The Force Awakens!

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2412 –
There are scenarios where Congress might have to decide who should become President, so it has to be in place before Inauguration Day. For instance, if Biden wins Georgia but Trump wins the other States, both will have 269 Electoral College votes and the House of Representatives will decide the election. Unfortunately, Trump would almost certainly win in that scenario.

Another scenario is that Pennsylvania goes to Biden and is the only State that takes him to 270 Electoral College votes. If the Pennsylvania legislature claims electoral fraud, it could send its own pro-Trump slate of electors to the Electoral College. In all likelihood, that would send it to the new Congress to decide.

Of course, there’s now no  good reason for delaying the sitting of the new Congress until the New Year.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2413 –
I suppose I summarise this complexity, as "Hardly a democracy!"
The Force Awakens!

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2414 –
As more votes roll in it seems the greater and more comfortable Biden's final margin will be.
That's in the best interests of America
The larger that is, the more likely a meltdown can be avoided.
Trump will continue to fire-up his hard-core supporters but without the energy of a result that can be overturned the fire may soon go out.

More moderate Republicans, especially lawmakers , will now need to reposition themselves with an eye to the future.
There are mid-term elections only 2 years away.
That's not a huge amount of time to carry out repairs.
There will be a concerted effort 'to take back the party' and rid itself of the Trump influence.
That could be a bit of a turbulent and interesting time as forces on the far right will be very resistant.