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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #135
He won't. Reckon Hilary's in the White House now. She easily win the Democrat nomination and in the end I don't see any way known the Americans will vote Trump in even if he wins the Republican nomination.

Hilary is my favourite to win but i reckon she wont want Trump getting through as her opponent...bit of X factor about Trump being such a crazy man and sometimes desperate people turn to someone who is promising miracles and a better life even though they know it has no basis.
My son and his girlfriend are in the USA on holiday and have been shocked at the support Trump has from the ordinary man in the street, I hope Hilary's supporters all rock up to vote and dont get complacent..

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #136
If it's Hilary up against Trump she will get smoked. Sanders is the democrats best bet.


2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #137
I watched a clip on News 24 tonight exit polling Trump boosters as they left his latest folly.

A woman approached made this statement;

"We need a person like Trump, I'm sick of the world looking at America like it's a joke!"

Really!!!! :o
The Force Awakens!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #138
Trump reminds me of that other sabre-rattling presidential candidate from the 60s, Barry Goldwater. He was a successful businessman who managed to win the Republican nomination by being very jingoistic, outspoken and with a lot of confrontational talk directed at the USSR, the evil empire of the time. He had a lot of people worried as to what he might do as president.

Anyway, he was comprehensively rolled in the election by LBJ. Hopefully Trump is just as successful as Goldwater was.  :)
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #139
in the end, you get the president you deserve


Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #141
People of the world don't. Stupid rednecked Americans do. God help us if Trump gets up.

That's gone from "They wouldn't possibly elect him" to "He's most likely to win the Republican nomination and from there he's a good chance"

Interestingly Mitt Romney has just thrown a little hand grenade into the debate concerning Trump's failure to release his "back taxes"
Is he worth as much as he claim?
Does he give as much to charity as he claims?

A review of his previous financials may be interesting reading and give his opponents some basis on which to attack him.




Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #142
That's gone from "They wouldn't possibly elect him" to "He's most likely to win the Republican nomination and from there he's a good chance"

Interestingly Mitt Romney has just thrown a little hand grenade into the debate concerning Trump's failure to release his "back taxes"
Is he worth as much as he claim?
Does he give as much to charity as he claims?

A review of his previous financials may be interesting reading and give his opponents some basis on which to attack him.

Now he's a real chance, all the dirt than can be thrown will be.......
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #143
Very disturbing ...

The thinking used to be that Trump had a solid floor of support - 25-30% - but he also had a solid ceiling of 40% or so.  That underpinned the theory that if he could be isolated in a 2 man race his opponent would comfortably beat him.  But he has just polled 46% of the vote, more than Rubio and Cruz combined.

The only hope is that Nevada is an anomaly.  Apparently, polls suggest that 60% of voters yesterday identified as "angry" and Trump won 70% of their votes.  Other primaries aren't quite as angry.  Nevada is the home of Cliven Bundy, after all.

But the wishful thinking hasn't worked so far and it's unlikely to work now.  Trump is leading Rubio in his home state of Florida according to the polls and Rubio was expected to do well in Nevada because he had lived there for some time.  Cruz was hoping evangelicals in southern states would carry him to victory but he has bombed in SC and Nevada.

Another complication is that a few of the primaries are "winner take all" contests.  Trump can therefore win a majority of delegates nationally without needing to get 50% of the vote.  Trump took every delegate in South Carolina and he'll take all of the Florida delegates if he wins in Florida.

 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #144
Trumps biggest obstacle  is his own party.
He will destroy hillary and he will do it slowly if its a show down















Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #145
I want to see a Democrat win and don't care whether it's Sanders or Clinton.  But I just can't see Sanders winning.  In a Trump/Sanders contest, Trump will go after Sanders' self-described democratic socialism.  I just can't see Sanders winning when the swing voters are so conservative.  Clinton is hardly to the left of Turnbull so it would be hard to paint her as a left-wing revolutionary.  For me, the Supreme Court is the main prize and securing a liberal majority will create the biggest impact on US politics. 

I don't see Trump having it easy against Clinton.  Perhaps adverse findings on her private emails might provide manna from heaven for Trump.  But short of that, the Republicans have already been attacking her for so long that there isn't much more ammunition left.  On the other hand, Trump has not been vetted anywhere near as much.  The press has utterly failed to do the honours because they've been distracted by Trump's circus act.  Even the other Republican candidates have been loathe to take Trump on.  Rich Republican donors seem unwilling to fund ads attacking him, apparently for fear of Trump targetting them.  Cruz and Rubio have therefore been attacking each other rather than Trump.  Trump has also been willing to attack Fox News for Megan Kelly's questions at a debate and even boycotted a debate that Fox News conducted because Kelly was to moderate it again.

This won't happen when he has to face the Democratic candidate.  For a start, he won't have the advantage of allowing multiple opponents to take each other out.  The DNC won't hesitate to attack him ruthlessly.  I'd imagine that they are already queuing up lines of attack and they have the advantage of seeing what works and what doesn't in the Republican primaries. 

Let's face it, there will be plenty of ammunition.  He's been bankrupt 4 times, received a Fed Govt bailout in the 90s, and his business ethics are clearly an issue.  Have a look at his attempt to force out an elderly woman from her house so he could build a carpark for limousines servicing a casino he was running.  He's being sued by an investor in a Trump real estate development who found out Trump was only allowing another developer to use his name and face for a fee.  Romney has called on Trump to disclose his tax returns, saying he probably hasn't disclosed them as he probably isn't paying much tax.  Ironically, Romney was hurt in the same way when his tax returns showed he only paid 15%.

Remember also that he's unlikely to win the battle for Black and Hispanic votes.

Unfortunately for the GOP, the vetting process will start for real too late to stop Trump winning the party's nomination.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #146
Here are 2 articles developing the point that the GOP candidates have failed to vet and challenge Trump:
How The Republican Party Has Failed To Dig Up Dirt On Donald Trump, HuffPost, 25/2/16.
Quote
It's no secret that rival campaigns were caught off guard by Donald Trump's ascent in the Republican primary. But the extent to which they are still left scrambling to prevent him from becoming the nominee -- on the eve of the crucial Super Tuesday primaries -- is alarming many Republicans and astonishing rival Democrats.

Multiple Republican campaign sources and operatives have confided that none of the remaining candidates for president have completed a major anti-Trump opposition research effort. There are several such efforts being run by outside conservative organizations. But those efforts are still gathering intel on the businessman after having started late in the primary season, these sources told The Huffington Post. And they worry that it may come too late.
...
Whether the fruits of this late opposition-research push or the investigative work of the reporters themselves, some critical, deeply investigated articles on Trump have begun popping up. On Wednesday, Bloomberg News had a comprehensive look at Trump's troubled international business dealings. And on Thursday, The New York Times reported that Trump had been relying heavily on foreign labor at his Florida resort, in contrast with a campaign promise to create jobs for American workers.

But it is treated as a truism among Republicans that a vast reservoir of damaging opposition research remains untouched. It's a suspicion that Democrats aren't challenging. Indeed, one Democratic opposition research said that they’ve spent the past eight months compiling material on Trump as he’s risen up the ranks. That's actually not a lot of time. Democrats had started focusing on Mitt Romney in 2009 -- a full two years before he ran again for the presidency. But those eight months have produced some good.

That researcher estimated that of all the material they’ve compiled -- court and property records, newspaper clips and videos -- approximately 80 percent of it has yet to surface in this election cycle.

Donald Trump is an evil genius: How he abandoned political strategy and won over the GOP’s bloodthirsty base, Salon, 25/2/16.
Quote
Conservative writer Matt Lewis has called the Republican establishment “stupid and gutless” for failing to attack Trump. He suggests that someone run an ad that tells people how he cut off medical care to a sick infant (his own nephew)—just to get back at his parents.  Here’s what Stuart Stevens says would be a real campaign against Donald Trump:

“The way to beat Donald Trump is to go after the essence of Donald Trump,” Stevens said. “Donald Trump is a ridiculous figure. He’s not a particular business success. Four bankruptcies! He doesn’t have a junior-high-school-level understanding of policy—he doesn’t know what the nuclear triad is. You’ve got to turn to Donald Trump in a debate and say, ‘You’re a ridiculous figure. You don’t know what you’re talking about. And this tariff idea will cost jobs, it will damage the economy, just like you bankrupted Atlantic City.’ ” Stevens recalled that after Vladimir Putin said some nice things about Trump, the candidate arranged his entire foreign policy around a pro-Putin stance. Trump is “like a stray dog,” Stevens said. “Pat him on the head and he’ll follow you home.”

Now, those articles are from left-wing commentators.  But the point is that the Republican primaries are like a preliminary final.  Trump can implement a stunning game plan in it but the Grand Final opponent isn't going to be blindsided if he does the same thing again.

Guys like Cruz and Rubio have avoided taking on Trump because they are competing for the same voters.  Cruz bear hugged Trump from the start, making an effort to be nice to Trump and echo his thoughts.  He hoped that Trump would drop out and Cruz would inherit his supporters.  Rubio has just been scared of Trump humiliating him.  The Democratic candidate won't be competing for the same voters at all.  If Trump goes after Sanders or Clinton, he won't win over their base.  Instead, he will motivate their supporters to turn out to vote. Let's say, for instance, that Clinton beats Sanders.  One of her problems is that Sanders' supporters will spit the dummy and refuse to vote at all.  If Trump attacks Clinton as viciously as he has his Republican rivals and lambasts left-wing principles, that may persuade Sanders' voters to unite behind Clinton.  He may well create a YUGE turn out of Democratic voters.  Failing to vote is a major determinant in an optional voting system. 

Of course, this is also true of turning out Black and Hispanic voters.  Trump boasted of winning the Latino vote in Nevada but few Hispanics in Nevada identify as Republicans - only about 7%.  If he keeps up his rhetoric, he'll turn out the other 93% to vote against him.  The other issue is whether he can inherit the moderate Republican vote.  Outraging them sufficiently may not result in them voting for the Democratic contender but it may result in many refusing to vote at all.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #147
Duplicate

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #148
Should Trump win the republican nomination his choice of a potential Vice President would be interesting.
That may go some way to appealing to some of the groups where he doesn't have strong support at present.


Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #149
Seems that Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina, is the ideal candidate - female, biracial, executive branch experience, Republican credentials. 

The thinking is that Trump needs someone who has experience in dealing with the legislative branch.  Senators, being part of congressional gridlock, hardly fit in with his contempt for Washington insiders.

A guy like Carson might be useful because he's black but he has no better idea of how to run an executive branch.

The question is whether Nikki Haley would want to run with Trump or whether Trump is willing to forgive and forget.  She backed Rubio in the South Carolina primary and Trump is a famous believer in an eye for an eye.