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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #645
Oh, the irony!

After happily floating defamatory and ridiculous conspiracy theories for years (e.g Obama is a secret Muslim who wasn't born in the US and Ted Cruz's father helped Lee Harvey Oswald assassinate JFK), the Trumps have been outraged over an allegation regarding Melania Trump and are suing for defamation! 

http://www.theage.com.au/world/melania-trump-sues-over-tremendously-damaging-escort-reports-20160902-gr7kwf.html

Oddly enough, Melania no longer shares the stage with Trump these days ...

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #646
you claim scientific studies are showing that the threat of Zika has been greatly exaggerated
No I didn't, I claimed the scientific study which has been used by the media to drum up hysteria was designed to deliberately select the worst case variables.

In particular, you say the CDC has slashed away at the number of confirmed cases and that suggests they are a credible institution in your eyes.  But the CDC is a very strong proponent of urgent funding of the fight against The Zika Virus.  Maybe it's a Jeckyl and Hyde thing.
Only in your mind!

Seems to me you're fighting a rearguard action since your argument that there was no link between Zika and microcephaly bit the dust.
I've never said there is no link, you've deliberately misquoted me to try and support your case. It's a pity you try to distort old long forgotten discussions to stoke your ego!

The earlier results hinted that the 2nd trimester was the critical period, infection before or after has as yet not been related to microcephaly. This has lead some to speculate that the problem isn't the presence of Zika in the placenta but possibly a reaction from the mothers own immune system that is the root cause. I don't know the reason behind why they think that is the case.

This finding is unchanged to date.

But if you want an argument over the science, best you start another thread.  This one is about the Presidential Election.  It doesn't matter what the true position regarding Zika is.  The question is how voters will react.  Railing against the "carbon tax" might have been a nonsense in economic and scientific terms but it helped win Tony Abbott an election.
You are the one who keeps bringing up Zika and Microcephaly, in a hysterical manner, in a political thread. The hysteria is being drummed up by selective media reporting, my concern regarding scientific institutions is as I have said surrounding unscrupulous lawyers and administrators who know how to manipulate the media and public to ensure they receive funding. As it seems from your support of Zika as a political tool my concerns are truly well founded.

Shame Mav, shame! :(
The Force Awakens!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #647
Amazing ...

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #648
Letter from the Directors of the CDC and NIH:

Quote
The Zika virus presents an unprecedented threat to the people of our nation, especially pregnant women. Thus far, t there have been more than 16,800 cases of Zika infection reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States and its territories, including more than 2,700 on the mainland. (That figure includes more than 100 in New Jersey.)

Laboratory tests have confirmed that 1,595 pregnant women have been infected with the virus, and tragically, 17 babies have been born in the United States with birth defects related to Zika.

...

The potential cost of a funding shortfall will be measured in human misery and even death. Every child born with microcephaly as a result of the Zika infection of the mother during pregnancy could require care that costs the family and our health-care system anywhere between $1 million and $10 million over the lifetime of the child. Every child born with microcephaly faces a difficult future, filled with intensive therapy and support. It is a price that no child — no mother, no father, no family — should have to pay, especially given that it can be avoided.
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/09/cdc_director_how_not_to_fight_the_zika_virus_opini.html

 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #649
Why is this election race even a contest still? ???



Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #652
Letter from the Directors of the CDC and NIH:
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/09/cdc_director_how_not_to_fight_the_zika_virus_opini.html

Some critical thinking will help you there Mav.

If there are 16800 cases, assuming 50/50 men and women will mean 8400 women. At any one time in the USA 4% of all women are pregnant, 4% of 8400 is 336 but that report states 1595 pregnant women with Zika. By definition if there were 1595 is pregnant women infected with Zika that would be 4% of all Zika cases, which would have to be 39875 female cases of Zika infection and assuming a 50/50 distribution of sexes 79850 cases in total.

Where does the 16800 cases come from that has a massive number of 1595 pregnant women, that would need about 19% of women in that group to be pregnant which is 5X the US average?

They must be rooting for Zika! :D
The Force Awakens!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #653
Hmmm ... let me see.  Do I side with some guy tapping away on a calculator or the Director of the world-renowned CDC?  Tough one, that.  Maybe I'll go with the CDC guy.  By the way, do you think that the CDC might prioritise testing pregnant women or that pregnant women might be more likely to seek out testing and advice?

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #654
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-closing-gap-on-hillary-clinton-as-november-vote-looms-20160904-gr8qbi.html

Gee, I'd just about written off the Trumpster but maybe that was a premature extrapolation?

I will be over there about a month before the election so it may be a very interesting visit.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #655
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-closing-gap-on-hillary-clinton-as-november-vote-looms-20160904-gr8qbi.html

Gee, I'd just about written off the Trumpster but maybe that was a premature extrapolation?

I will be over there about a month before the election so it may be a very interesting visit.

This is the key point... ;)
Quote
However, Mrs Clinton maintained healthy leads in key battleground states including Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #656
Yep.  Gore received half a million more votes than Bush in 2000.  A national opinion poll isn't as useful a predictor as polls in battleground states.  When you look at electoral college votes, Trump needs to win a large proportion of the battleground states.  The "electoral math", as the Yanks say, favour her.  She can win by sweeping the "rust belt states" (the north-eastern industrial states like Pennsylvania and Ohio), the Eastern seaboard (including Florida with its 29 electoral college votes), or the increasingly Latino states in the south-west such as Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.  She can afford to keep all those strategies going for now as she is blitzing Trump when it comes to fundraising and this forces him to spread his time and effort.  Then she can concentrate on the strongest strategy in the final run home.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #657
The polls don't  mean anything, if they did  Trump wouldn't  have got this far. America  doesn't  trust Hilary and that will show in November.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #658
Anyone would think there were only two candidates running, guess it comes down to who the media elect.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #659
Mav you really need to read this stuff before you post, your link supports my case not yours!

Hmmm ... let me see.  Do I side with some guy tapping away on a calculator or the Director of the world-renowned CDC? Tough one, that. Maybe I'll go with the CDC guy.
The numbers are important, they can be trusted when opinions cannot, and if an expert or the media publishes rubbery or misleading numbers they should be called to account! If you had used a calculator you might better off! :D

By the way, do you think that the CDC might prioritise testing pregnant women or that pregnant women might be more likely to seek out testing and advice?
That is not what was stated or contained in the very article that the count links to, you coloured that to suit your argument. Further, given that Zika is a notifiable condition and spreads not just by mosquito but is also sexually transmitted, the referenced stats should not favor a specific sex.

But surprisingly in the stats link an interesting footnote;
Quote
§Only includes cases meeting the probable or confirmed CSTE case definition and does not include asymptomatic infections unless the case is a pregnant woman with a complication of pregnancy
They exclude people from the count who are asymptomatic(healthy carriers) unless they are pregnant with a complication, which introduces a selection bias. Women who were pregnant, had tested positive with Zika, but had no symptoms or pregnancy complications are excluded from the figures!

As an aside, people who are asymptomatic have antibodies to the virus, some of the very new research is suggesting it may well be the Zika antibodies and not the virus that are doing the damage in the 2nd trimester. If that is true the concern is that the immunisation might do as much harm as it does good if the timing is wrong! No wonder they want money quickly, the cure might be worse than the disease! It would be the first time in history humans have tried to fix something and made things worse! All in all it's shouts patience is a virtue.

That CDC statement is basically arguing a case for more money as I outlined earlier. The article even discusses having to remove funds from other far more immediate and serious health threats to fund the Zika fight.

That is scaremongering at it's finest, scientists playing politics to get funding, they should be working for the GOP!
The Force Awakens!