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Messages - kruddler

16
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I cant see for the life of me what the purpose was of getting this bloke into the club. He got gifted the first 2 games and showed SFA.

We have coverage in that area and even if he stayed on the park and played near his best I still prefer Motlop and Durdin over him.

Agree.

Called it early that we didn't need extra small forwards, rather taller KPPs, either backs or forwards.

But it was a 'free hit'. So be it.
I would've preferred a 'free hit' at something we needed, but i'm not in charge.

He better find some form come seasons end and produce in finals.
17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I think Boyd's kicking has let him down at the start of this season, he has been horribly inconsistent, but then retrospectively we hear that we've been on a heavy training load and that means tired legs. Saad has been similar, but he's on Ramadan, I can't recall if it affected him previously.

But in fairness as defenders they wear the heat for errors, a forward can have worse efficiency and seem OK.

Fantasia however is going at 45%, I've no idea why, Doc with one bung leg for half a game went at 60%.

You need to look hand in hand with contested/unconctested possessions.

You can go at 75% DE when most of your possessions are uncontested and that is terrible.
You can go at 75% DE when most of your possessions are contested and that is superhuman.
18
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
I think McGovern is better as a doer than a leader.  No rule saying you can't be both.  Newman does too, but I see him marshalling the troops down back.  Realistically there is usually one setting it up, and weiters is normally that one.  Newman I think performs that role well.

McGovern has been quite vocal and directing players of late. Growing into the role nicely. Newman was already there.
The (re)introduction of Weitering in that team with those 2, and veteran Adam Saad makes for a very solid group to work from.
19
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
You made good points on the Silvagni v TDK issue. I understood them. I could see merit in them.
But looking big picture/future what was the best option.
Who had the most upside-Tom or Jack.
Which player did we think was going to end up the better and more valuable player?
Who needed game time at senior level?

What is the end game though Lods?
If we are an under 15's side and we are trying to develop everyone, then sure.
If we are genuine finals contendors, then sorry, now is not the best time for development.
We 'developed' people in the prelim final.
IMO, we didn't pick the best team to actually win the game. I said as much before, and after.......and all throughout the year too.
I even said that i would've left Harry or Pittonet out of that prelim side and 100% would've played TDK.
Do you remember that? No, nobody does. They remember the other stuff i said throughout the year though.

I want what is best for the club.
If that means TDK needs to increase his output or kick off the dew in the 2's, so be it.
If that means Pitto never plays again, so be it.
If that means Jack is picked and has to tough it out as a ruckmen for the rest of his career, so be it (for the record, people fixate on Jack, but i always talked about any other option, be that Charlie, Harry or Cripps. The 2nd ruck, needs to be a non-ruck...or be capable of holding down another position on his own merit).

In the best 22 threads this year, i've picked TDK and left out Pittonet. Do people remember that? No, i'm still anti-TDK though.

People talk about my bias' over the years, bring up carrazzo, scotland....whoever. Do they remember what i was saying? No, they just remember that i was 'anti' them.
I always said we wouldn't win a flag with Carrazzo/Scotland in our bests. I was right.
Doesn't mean they couldn't play, just that we needed more a-grade talent and elite ball users.

I can argue both sides of the coin. I often take a contrary view for arguments sake. People who know me in real life know my real thoughts on the matter. People on here get a snippet of me that is shaped by opposing views on here. ;)
20
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
It's the old 'unholy trinity' of player evaluation.
Observation, Statistics and Bias

Each has it's limitations.
Observation-What someone sees at the ground is different to what someone views on the television. Small efforts/ one percenters can be picked up on the vision or totally missed through both mediums depending on your concentration at the time or your position in the stands.

Statistics- are useful but are notoriously dubious because they are a raw figure that can describe a number of sceanrios.
As an example10 effective kicks that go to a team-mate don't necessarily advantage a team in the same way as another ten. It's situational

and finally
Bias-even the best of us if, we have a pre-determined opinion of a player, will give a greater emphasis to the strengths or faults we see.

As an example
Poster 'A' will say-
Harry had a good game played well around the ground, missed a couple, but the good outweighed the bad."
Poster 'B' will say-
Harry missed two sitters, nearly cost us the game, momentum killer"
 (You won't hear a peep about the good aspects of his game.)

It's why we see players differently....and neither is completlely right or wrong.
They're just different opinions.
And they're our opinions at different times in a player's career.

So if some say early in 2023 that TDK isn't quite reaching expectations...it's probably a fair comment.
Ask the question early in 2024 and a few folks have probably changed sides.
The trick is not to take too long before you come around or you might miss the boat. ;)  :D

Yeah yeah, you think i'm very biased against TDK, i get it. I disagree, but you would expect me to say that.
Its hard to keep track of a particular posters thoughts on an issue on here, ironically, similar to your take on here.
Observation - some posts you might not read. Some posts you might not comprehend, or at least not fully understand....and part of that could be on me for not explaining well enough.

Statistics - a lot of 'negative' posts by me gets attention, but thats because they end up in a thread of arguments because there might be a lot of people who disagree. Whereas the positive stuff gets glossed over because its the same as everyone else.

Bias - Similar to the above, but you look for the negative and ignore the positive, or at least focus on that more.

Its funny, the whole TDK debate took 2 shapes.
1. Pittonet > TDK in pure rucking ability.
2. TDK < Silvagni (or others) around the ground.

1. People debated that 1 didn't matter. So Pittonet shouldn't play as hitouts don't matter.
2. People ignored the fact that Silvagni (or others) did better around the ground.....although slightly less in the ruck.....which people decided didn't matter anyway.

People wanted it both ways. Its why the argument kept going round in circles.

All of this was off the back of my contention that the team only needs 1 ruck to reach peak performance. Some disagreed with that, which is fine, but results seem to prove otherwise (when taking opponent into account).
21
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
No. He was playing better than that.  He wasn't a highlight reel player, he was just rucking well for a quarter or two and taking a strong mark every week that was eye popping. Then there is the fact that he hits the scoreboard, and genuinely creates panic when he drifts forward because he's athletic and can actually play as a forward.

I don't want to start this whole debate again, but you are proving my point. He 'hits the scoreboard'....Its a bit of an exageration of his efforts. He only averages a goal every 3 games.
Mitch McGovern averages almost a goal a game and he's been played in defence for half his career.
Silvagni averages 3 goals every 4 games.
Cripps averages over half a goal a game.

People remember the good things he does, but remember them happening more than they actually do. His actual output has been relatively poor considering the hype.
Thats why i come across as negative, because i point out he hasn't been as good as people say. Showing potential, absolutely. Not maximising it......yet.
22
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I don't think DeKoning has been damaged by being 'gifted'  games early.
I think he's been managed well, getting games and experience as it was considered he needed that exposure.
He's progressing well over the last two seasons...and the best may be yet to come.
I wasn't suggesting we have damaged him. Just pointing out that its more complex than simply play the kids and get them up to speed.
23
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I reckon the best way to develop your potential is to play senior games against seasoned opposition.
You learn from the best, even if they give you a hiding or two in the early contests.
De Koning's starting to show us what he's capable of because he's been getting those experiences against the very best in the latter part of last season and early this year.
You don't get that playing VFL.

Consistency is another thing that comes from experience.
It sometimes takes a while...so if there is the odd run of bad games we have to accept that as part of the development.

It's why it's probably not a great idea to make judgements in the moment, or at a certain point of a players early career.

You can also ruin a player and his confidence by gifting them games before they are ready for it.
Dow and O'Brien immediately spring to mind.
Doubley so for young rucks/kpps.
24
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I really think  that  everyone needs to rememeber who  Lewis Young is, he  is a  a backup and as a backup we need to have a little more faith in him, look where we would be without him?  think about that  get onboard and pump up his tyres a little , whilst he is down   a little support from all may prove to be a benefit . he wasnt picked up to be  the  main man.

People need to remember that he was also holding down a key post for a whole season and looked like a million bucks. Thats why we gave him a long term contract.

Since then, he is gone from a starter, to a backup....and a backup of a backup at that! We were choosing to play him behind Weitering, McGovern, Kemp and Marchbank in that role, despite 3 of them not actually being suited to it.

As i just got saying about TDK. Its about potential. He had it.  He fulfilled it. He lost it.
He should not be judged with kid gloves because he has gone backwards as a player....and right at a point in time where we need him the most.
25
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Also he wad playing to his potential what people were moaning about was consistency. 

Semantics to a point.

If he does 1 good, athletic, eye-popping thing a game, and goes missing for the rest of it, is that because he hasn't reached his potential or he isn't consistent?
I'd say its potential.

If he has 1 solid game 1 week and a nothing game the next week, i'd say that is consistency.

He may have put together the odd solid game over his career, but he hasn't earned himself a 3 brownlow vote game in the way Nic Nat did. He is capable of it.....which is why its been frustrating.

Previously, people have seen glimpses, and extrapolate that out to a good performance.
When you break it down, the rest of the performances have usually been very much sub par. He is remembered for the 'almost' mark of the week attempts, and not for going missing for 20 minutes at a time. This is why i went to great depth to show people perceptions of what he was doing, was out of whack with what he was actually doing. Opposite was true with Pittonet/Silvagni.

NOW he is starting to find some more consistency and using his gifts we all knew he had. Taking some marks. Getting some ground balls. Sticking some tackles. Kicking some goals. This should be the norm from him, not the exception.

I said all along, i've got no issue with him, but he needed to perform, not just get a gig based on potential. He is starting to perform and we should keep it that way.

My only worry is that he is peforming now because he is fit and healthy. After getting banged up week in and week out, he may not be able to perform in the same way. Won't be able to jump as high, run as fast and pressure in the same manner due to niggles/injury. THEN it may become an issue.

I still maintain we run with 1 ruck, and he is my preference for now.
Maybe switch him out for Pittonet if he starts to carry a niggle, but don't play both.
26
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
had to agree. To see the way Tom finished off was what I wanted. He can do this, he just has to believe he can.
H also seems to have the belief at the moment.
Everyone has seen the potential from TDK, everyone believes he can do it. He seems to be the only one who hasn't seen it. Year on year we keep waiting. Perhaps THIS is the year he finally gets it. Could be a good year for him and us if it is.
29
Robert Heatley Stand / The Zuton factor - Pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure
There's a band i like, that nobody has ever heard of called The Zutons. The only song people seem to know is one that Amy Winehouse did a cover of - Valerie, but there is plenty worth listening too.

One of my favourites is called Pressure Point.

When watching Carlton play over the last 20-odd games, there is a section that comes to mind which i think would be good for backing music in a highlight reel see below. (I've started at the part of note in this instance)

https://youtu.be/mLPJy1VS27U?si=NIolldfnPwG3M0_8&t=84

So with the above in mind....

Pressure acts. A stat that doesn't get much attention, but all hell breaks loose when you are lacking in that area, not least of which is the pressure on the coach intensifies. Its been no secret that the more you pressure your opponent, the better off you will be, in terms of the contest and the overall result.

So how have we gone so far this season and who is getting the job done? Looking at last 2 weeks for a start.

A few people have suggested that Hollands has been down on form and Cunners has been underperforming as well.

Personally i've been happy with both and i was looking through some stats to see if my eyes were telling the truth. They were.


FWIW, Carlton had 296 pressure acts. Richmond had 293.

Best for carlton....
Newman (24)
Hewett (23)
Cripps (22)
Hollands (19)
Cuningham (17)

McKay (17)
Acres (16)
Cerra (15)

Last week it was Carlton 279 vs Lions 264
Last week, the best for Carlton was....
Cerra (30)
Hollands (29)
Cuningham (18)
Hewett (17)
Kennedy (16)
Fogarty (16)

So total so far....
Hollands (48)
Cerra (45)
Hewett (40)
Newman (37)
Cripps (36)
Cuningham (35)
Boyd (28)

So there it is, Thats my Zutons factor and highlighting a few boys that i think deserve some credit for their pressure.