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Topic: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide (Read 2473 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #45 –
Next game is the start of the losing streak. Thank the gods it is earlier than last season. We are not top 4 contenders just yet.  We had this one in the bag and in a way, I am glad we lost this opportunity. We are not top 4 material by any measure. Close only wins by the majority of games. Eventually you lose a few close game
s by the rules of Karma. Our next 4 weeks could have us win not a single game. Back into the battlers group still struggling to get into the top 8. Voss needs to do some serious talking and motivating. A bad period could have us lose our next 5. At a guess we will be lucky to get 3 wins in the next 5 games. More likely to be 2. Maybe 1. Not doom and gloom, but we had this one game in the bag against a side that struggled to play any side so far this season. We need much more work between the ears. Better game day selection of players. Less need for Walsh to carry the entire squad. He is only playing his first game this season if I am correct? We need to learn how to keep a lead on the scoreboard. We need to learn how to defend better. We still need to work on endurance and how to find speed by foot when the going gets tough. Not happy with the result at all. Glad we lost if we learn from the experience. Adelaide of all sides. Really? GWS by 5 goals next game.
This digital world is too much for us insects to understand.

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #46 –
No VFL/AFL team has ever gone through the season undefeated.
Someday one will. It may even be a Carlton side.
That team will be a great team.
We’re not yet a great team, we’re not even our best team… not by a long shot, with quite a number of our players out, or injured during the game.
Our forward line was missing Fogarty, Motlop, Martin, Cunningham  all of who are in the mix for our best side.
Our defence was missing Marchbank, then Saad and McGovern
Cerra goes out of the midfield, and we’re a bit depleted.

The first loss of the season always stings.
It stings even more when it’s a team we thought we would account for easily.

But Adelaide did a number on us last year and did their homework well. We were out coached on the day. There were elements of the Fremantle approach in some passages yesterday as we struggled to move the ball out of defence.
So naturally there is a bit of disappointment, even anger and we’re looking for reasons.
Had we snuck over the line that would have largely disappeared.
We’d be looking for heroes, not villains.

But we weren’t awful…except some of our finishing.
The effort seemed to be there.
So many moments…Owies had two that could have changed the game
Had Owies not tripped over his own feet (or the Adelaide players feet)  near the end it may have been a different story.
Had the goal Owies kicked been counted (An umpire should never say "I believe it was touched". They either saw the touch or they didn’t. So the soft call when it’s inconclusive must always be a goal)…different story

Just on the two- ruck situation. It’s not as cut and dried as some believe. The replacement of a ruck/tall with a small mid-field running player has to be viewed in terms of plusses and minuses.
The gain of the running player must be seem in terms of the cost of what you lose by omitting the tall/ruck. There may be an advantage…but the gap may not be as huge as we may think. Pittonet gave us a bit especially early on…but yes, it may have cost us later in the game.
Playing two wasn’t the issue, as much as playing a ruck to replace Cerra was.
With Saad and McGovern going down a lot of our drive disappeared as rotations were affected. Williams also seemed to be struggling at stages and may have had to stay on because of the injuries.
In that situation a second ruck may have cost us and Cincotta would have been handy when Saad was injured.
But looking at the bigger picture…This was Pittonet’s first game of the year. and he wasn’t too bad considering. More than anything he needs a bit of game time. (He only got half a game yesterday) Does that affect TDK’s performance. You can look at it that way, based on this game, but making judgements based on one game is fraught with danger. You would have to believe that there is a bit of a plan regarding the ruck situation going forward, and managing that will be a bit tricky. The more Tom and Marc play together the better the understanding they’ll develop. Whether they’ll be given that opportunity is up to the coaches.

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #47 –
@Lods Nice summation. RE the Owies no goal call, I haven't seen the vision as I was at the game so not sure how clear cut it is. My guess is if it was clear cut, the ARC would have reversed the call and paid the goal. Even so, swings and roundabouts, we were on the right end of a missed touched call last week, the reverse this week perhaps.
Take a Cerra and a Saad out of any side and your going to struggle, especially an in game loss like Saad (at least Cerra we had time to plan for it, I personally wouldnt have picked a Ruckman to come in).
What disappoints me most is getting beaten by something you know (and has happened before). Walker fair enough, great footballer and a beautiful set shot for goal. But Ben Keays? Gimme a spell, he was given far too much latitude...again.
I sat behind the goals and their ball movement out of defence seemed effortless, too much so for my liking in fact.
To often yesterday our blokes were a little too happy to sit off and wait for the TO that didn't come. In game adjustment was non existent (to my eye at least).
Speed is a concern for us and next weeks match up is not a good one in that regard and I think we will get exposed again. It will be interesting to see what the coaching staff do to combat the orange tsunami.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #48 –
Weitering will do better on Hogan than the more physical Walker and I'd expect TDK to do better vs Briggs who isnt at the same level as O'Brien.
Toby Greene will be the main problem, played on our old mate Liam Stocker vs the Saints who did a decent job on him but he doesn't play too many average games and might be due for a big one..
 

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #49 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 on
Weitering will do better on Hogan than the more physical Walker and I'd expect TDK to do better vs Briggs who isnt at the same level as O'Brien.
Toby Greene will be the main problem, played on our old mate Liam Stocker vs the Saints who did a decent job on him but he doesn't play too many average games and might be due for a big one..
Who's taking Toby, Williams or Newman are probably front runners, maybe someone like Cottrell could also give him some time. I think it was Newman / Cincotta last time we played them that shared the duty, they kept Green scoreless but he still had a heap of influence.
The Force Awakens!

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #50 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton on
I would have liked to see TDK go at it all day with OBrien. TDK and Pitto never really settled in to work him over. I personally Never want to see the two of them play together again, just my view.
It's untenable for these guys to go solo for a whole season and be right to go for the finals, they need to share the load at times with the target of being fresh and ready for finals.

It's as much about managing players through the season as it is about specific game day tactics.
The Force Awakens!

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #51 –
Quote from: Lods on
Just on the two- ruck situation. It’s not as cut and dried as some believe. The replacement of a ruck/tall with a small mid-field running player has to be viewed in terms of plusses and minuses.
The gain of the running player must be seem in terms of the cost of what you lose by omitting the tall/ruck. There may be an advantage…but the gap may not be as huge as we may think. Pittonet gave us a bit especially early on…but yes, it may have cost us later in the game.

This is always the debate, and it is clearly not as difficult as some are trying to make out.
TDK rucks for 75% game time when sole ruck. He played 75% game time when he has a backup ruck. He doesnt play more or less, just the position he played.
Harry didn't get a chance to ruck and as a result, went missing for large parts of the game. Despite kicking more goals than normal, he had less influence on the game than more recent efforts. This is a knock on for playing that second ruck.
I've already shown that a ruck took up a spot on the bench for 3/4's of the game. That 75% game time is a full time mid....on light duties - eg Walsh had 76% first game back, Cripps, Hewett, 79%, 80%.
Pitto was off the ground a full quarter more than anyone else (besides injured/subbed players) and TDK was actually next for least amount of game time.

It puts more on the shoulders of others as a result, and the benefit we get from it is not worth it.
Pitto had 6 clearances, only beaten by Walsh (8 ) and Cripps (7). He even kicked a goal. Put Cerra back in the side and he'd get the same amount of clearances (if not more), more possessions and is more likely to kick a goal most weeks as well.
So what benefit did we get from Pitto? A few extra hitouts to advantage....most likely leading to clearances.....which could've been equalled by having another pure midfielder in the team.
So what were the disadvantages....more gametime required by others, less run and pressure around the ball.....which is our strength.

Its nothing against Pitto, same could be said for TDK. Either play Pitto for the whole game, or play TDK for the whole game. No point playing both.
There were 97 ruck contests yesterday.
Including the ball hitting the deck and getting a clearance, each one of them probably takes about 10 seconds on average to work itself out. That equates to just over 16 minutes of game time. What benefit are we getting from the 2 rucks for the remaining 104 minutes of game time? Especially since they one of them are on the bench for 76minutes of that time.

The numbers just don't stack up.

The biggest plus is 'wearing the ruck down'. Which i get and i agree with.
However, our midfield is so good, we can go in there with Jack Silvagni, Harry McKay, Lewis Young, and still draw level (or better) with the clearances. So how much benefit is 'wearing the ruck down' really giving us?

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #52 –
All teams in top four even top six play with one ruck with a relieving ruck. TDK plays 75% of the game with Harry winning some hit outs and clearances that frees up his game.
Disrupted our form by changing formation that took away our run in transition. It was lost by the selection committee.
No fault of Pitto btw...but can't afford to take away our run in transition.

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #53 –
As much as we'd like this year to be 17, based on what we have delivered so far this year, it aint so. Media comparisons of us with Rottingwood of last year -- come from behind narrow wins -- hasn't helped, in fact its probably fuelled unrealistic expectations. All season I've been worried about how we win.

It's been great that we've been winning, but it's the way we've been winning - just. Willed over the line. And if Charles doesn't pop up with a 2-4 goal burst of brilliance, we're rooted. That's what concerns this little black duck more than anything. Too nice, still? Can't kill off a side when in front... why? Got ahead of ourselves?

Our wins seemed to have lacked authority. And so much has depended on our classy individuals. At our best we see an attitude of 'hunting'... everyone hunting, but that's evaporated. We seem reactive, lacking fierceness and relentless, consistent pressure. Still with the lapses. We let other sides in... and that's consistent. We accept that other sides will have their time but this seems to serve as an excuse (for failure to win stronger). It's as if we're willing to coast for 3 quarters then come home with a wet sail and another meritorious narrow win.

And we wondered how we would deal with the expectations attached to what we should achieve in 2024, well, we can see it rather clearly.

Personnel. Yes, we have injuries but we had injuries in games and our best missing when we were flying last year and found a way to win, and win well. If there is a mitigation it would be our forward line, a 2 star reliance. Too many small forwards just not delivering. Specifically, Fantasia & small Durds. And let's not get started on our glaring need for a third taller forward. Despite the injuries I hope our selection this week is not conservative... a shake-up is needed. Fingers crossed there are a few shining lights in today's Magoos. And those who suggest TDK might be a worthwhile experiment in defense... I agree.





Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #54 –
We were turning the ball over far too often coming out of defence.  This went on for the whole game and imo was a major factor in our loss. Pleased though with the return of Sammy but looks like Saad will be missing for a while.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #55 –
Most of the key points covered by the knowledgeable supporters on this forum.
My main takeaways from the game:
1. Lack of leg speed/line breakers means the ball often gets to the forward line slowly or from a kick under pressure meaning we rely on CC or H to take a big pack grab against multiple defenders who have peeled off their man to support. Very predictable to the opposition.
2. As Kingy & Lyon noted, we work too hard for our goals because of 1) above and we don't lower the eyes/and or forwards not leading to space. Compare our forward entries to the open spaces that Adelaide's forwards operated in.
3. Our small forwards not up to scratch  especially Fantasia. Must be dropped.
4. Defence off today due to injuries, matches and lack of pressure from midfield.  Refer 1) lack of leg speed required to chase some of Adelaide's line breakers.

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #56 –
Why do small forwards always get the blame?
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #57 –
Quote from: Baggers on


Personnel. Yes, we have injuries but we had injuries in games and our best missing when we were flying last year and found a way to win, and win well. If there is a mitigation it would be our forward line, a 2 star reliance. Too many small forwards just not delivering. Specifically, Fantasia & small Durds. And let's not get started on our glaring need for a third taller forward. Despite the injuries I hope our selection this week is not conservative... a shake-up is needed. Fingers crossed there are a few shining lights in today's Magoos. And those who suggest TDK might be a worthwhile experiment in defense... I agree.






We really need a mobile third marking option in the forward line, because banging it long to McKay and Curnow remains ultra predictable, and good teams can dry up our scoring very easily.  Martin kind of covered that last year, but Owies and the other smalls are not quite up to it or strong enough overhead.  I mean someone like a Fritsch, Hayward, Henry, Zac Bailey.

Maybe once we a full compliment of defenders available, we should try Brodie Kemp there?

 
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #58 –
We scored 98 points.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide

Reply #59 –
Quote from: Lods on
Pittonet gave us a bit especially early on…but yes, it may have cost us later in the game.
Only because of injuries, but that can happen for any position on the ground.

Fans seem oblivious to the risk of a single point of failure, which is the one ruck scenario, at least with Mids you have multiple points of failure so it's much easier to cover the loss of one.

If anything perhaps when we brought in Pitto we picked the wrong Sub, because we lost one HBF and it basically smashed our structure. Then we had a bunch of slower Mid types trying to become lockdown HBFs, or forcing mismatches on players like Rankine and Keays with slower heavier bodies, it's happened twice now, the Crows are making our MC look silly. The Crows almost scored at will despite a pretty equal battle between Weiters and Walker.

(btw., Williams best game for us I suspect, he tried to cover them all and never stopped working.)

On TDK solo, it's bizarre that fans want us to take TDK solo into a game against an opponent who has basically dominated him more than once, it's like they have no memory of the past.

Was BigH used in the centre at all yesterday, I don't recall seeing it?

(Perhaps BigH getting ironed out the week before put the wind up the MC, there is that risk again, a season impacting risk not just one game!)
The Force Awakens!