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Messages - LP

1
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
A new variant of CoVid called " Flirt" has also hit our shores....not sure what the symptoms are and if it has anything to do with the name?🤔
Yes, and I've just got family coming back from the states!

But even so, some of the same people who predicted COVID about a decade before it happened, just a year or two after MERS they tried to warn authorities who largely ignored them. They think if the same mutation rates follow the same patterns they are predicting another pandemic with Avian Flu by the Mid 2030s, it really only a matter of when not if. The science was based on good evidence of what had happened in the evolution of the bugs between SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2012.

With these predictions the mutation part is random, they openly admit it could never become virulent or it could be deadly tomorrow, the problem is do you ignore the risk, like we ignored them last time?
5
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
To reiterate, COVID mortality in Australia was 736 deaths per million compared to in excess of 2500 deaths per million in the USA and the UK.  The worst case scenario wasn’t happening in Australia because of the very effective measures put in place by Australian Governments.
Yes, our natural geographic isolation was in effect a test case for the efficacy of lockdowns.

The next time they should really close boarders to travellers harder and sooner, but I fear the screaming lunatics will again influence politicians and disrupt efforts to save lives.

The hard evidence, the numbers, confirm isolation works to slow / delay transmission, there is no debate!

Ultimately, the severity and acceleration of the pandemic came down to global politics and local bureaucracy.

We should all be vigilant, Avian Flu is spreading, just this week there are reports of dead birds lining highways here in Melbourne around Werribee and Carrum Downs sewerage works. Not just one or two birds as is usual, but dozens and dozens over extended distances. Influenza as a starting point is many times more deadly than Coronavirus.
6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
The MRO should fine Neale-Bullen for staging.
As much as I hate it, and how it can suck in umpires, my only concern is for players who get done over at the MRO for a bloke that stages.

The staging players will never admit to staging, they all fear becoming the next Ginnivan, so they go to the tribunal and offer ambiguous evidence like "I felt some contact!"

Last week we had players fined for running into umpires, the Dees did that multiple times last night, the Dee midfield deliberately use the umpires as physical obstructions. Let's see if they get fined?
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
The same thing happened to De Koning about 15m from goal in our forward line.  Poor umpiring!
It's umpiring without regard to the conditions, when TDK took his mark in the rain it was a wet weather mark every day of the year!

I don't mind that they don't call them, I just want it eh same for both sides and it isn't. This is a downside of having more umpires than ever before, the subjective stuff varies widely from umpire to umpire.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 10 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney
I feel reasonably confident about Syd, I feel we mostly play well against them and have no issue with playing them up there in Syd either.
Agreed, I think it's actually an advantage to play them on the SCG. It might be harder for Charlie and Harry to find space, but I think it helps our slower midfield keep up with the play.

It will be interesting to see what Horse does regarding our ruck duo tactics, he's basically the ruck work Tactical Primo of the AFL.
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Agree with remarks about the Ch7 commentary last night. It scaled new heights in bias, irrelevance and statement of the blindingly obvious. BT gave a masterclass ably supported by his willing cohort.
On the question of a lack of enthusiasm in BT's calling.

In the past he use to make excuses that we were boring to watch, yet in recent weeks we've been in both high scoring shoot outs, fumbling high intensity struggles, and last night in the first half we were dominant and efficient the imposing Handbagger style. Yet his attitude calling our games remains largely the same, until the moment our opposition get on a roll and his demeanour changes! He is pretty much schtum until our opposition look threatening, and even if/when we are on a roll he spends most of his time casting seeds of doubt or talks about the weather.

His dislike of Carlton is palpable, so why bother dragging down the spectacle, just get him out of the call team on our games!

It reminds me of watching The Storm versus any NSW team, the nine crew basically turn the broadcast into a Bellyache, Big Nasty, et.al., bashing session, I feel sorry for Cam Smith and Billy Slater for having to put up with it!
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Personally, I don't think we had much wrong structurally or tactically, we forced turnovers and we able to stop the Dees momentum multiple times after giving them the ball via execution errors. We didn't really give away any silly frees if we ignore a couple of umpiring howlers.

Our main problem was still execution, even when we had time and space we basically delivered the footy to the Dees HB line!
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
I imagine that Tim Clarke and Luke Power will be working with Ollie to improve his ability to get his disposals away more quickly and without losing efficiency.
Just on this issue, I understand we try to hit targets, but last night we looked more dangerous when the ball hit the deck in our F50. I think we are missing a trick, in that trying to hit targets late left Lever and May with a smorgasbord of intercepts. We had Owies, Durdin, Martin and at times Elijah, Cottrell, Cripps, Walsh and Kennedy all inside F50, space is a target, even a grubber kick along the ground is a target.

What's wrong with getting the ball within our goal range a creating a stoppage after stoppage as opposed to delivering Lever and May easy intercepts?

If the Dees are going to rely on Petracca inside F50, then leave him there and make stoppages in our F50 without him around the footy!
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 In Game Angst Carlton vs Melbourne
I would have liked us to bury them in the last, but they hung on and got the win.
I think Charlie should have gone short rather than long when he took that mark down back and just killed the game.
We are panicking with the footy still, this is something the coaches have to find a way to improve.

You'd think after the first 2 or 3 run downs Ollie would learn it's not a Sunday stroll, as good as I thought he was tonight being rundown is happening multiple times every game and it's costing us dearly. We are losing turnover opportunities to score easily and it keeps our opponents in the game.

I thought Elijah was good tonight, I'm not sure why we don't give him a bit more time around the stoppages he is calm and works well in traffic.

14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Gee, two things late in that game.

Firstly, we are still panicking with the footy and using it poorly, it's like we aren't able to stay composed and we are letting opposition back in mostly through poor ball use.

Secondly, what the feck were some of those free kicks to the Dees, and the non-free to us for virtually the same, and how the hell can those decision all of a sudden become so one sided!

I saw the behind the goals vision of Petracca throwing Hewett to the ground, and the central umpire was standing at our CHB position watching and did nothing! The Dees repeatedly take the footy and try to charge through the pack, it's play on or ball up, Cripps is the only player trying to actually pick the ball up in the middle and gets pinged!
15
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Strange, but most of the scientists and engineers I know couldn't give a fig about social media, in fact their confidence borders on arrogance... which is necessary to further their work.
I think they can come across like that, but it's mostly a defence mechanism, particularly if they are late career scientists and engineers.

Maybe those who seem to be a touch on a spectrum, which is often more common than you might think, can have a very myopic approach being heavily focussed on one specific area, and that can leave others thinking they are dismissive or arrogant. It's more common than you might suspect, little eccentricities that annoy everyday folk.

For example, among those I have worked with there is a surprisingly high level of dyslexia, even in those who can freely speak multiple languages.

The ones who are great orators are truly the exception, but the general public seems to expect that a brilliant scientific mind assumes a brilliant communicator, and that is far from the case!

On the issue of genuine arrogance, I find that it's very rare a good scientist is arrogant, in most cases the very good scientists doubt and question everything even their own work, which is actually the default scientific process. Make an assertion and then test it, a good scientist is always trying to prove an assertion is false. It's the bad ones that mask other deficiencies and ignore scientific process that are often caught using arrogance as a deflection mechanism.