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Topic: CV and mad panic behaviour (Read 438689 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #405 –
Being able to interpret data correctly is a skill, and not only a skill, but something that requires an understanding of the subject matter at hand. Professionals who have studied this virus, SARS, MERS etc., know full well that any prediction of peak is folly, and almost all of those types are saying we have a long way to go, and things will get worse before they get better. The number of variables that go into figures like : number of cases, deaths etc., are significant, and this complexity makes it madness to draw simplistic or rash conclusions.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #406 –
The website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ quoted earlier doesn't even support the idea cases have peaked, even if you look at the graphed data using a logarithmic Y-axis the cases are on the rise! https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

Epidemiologists are warning that the risk is this current outbreak could be the first of a series going through several oscillatory cycles. The outcome depends on how well we restrict the rate of growth this time and if herd immunity builds. They do not even know if infection will result in immunity, because as yet there hasn't been any wide-scale testing for antibodies, the possibility still exists that you can get it more than once!

Anyway PaulP, I'm giving this a break for now as I appreciate people might want to come to this site to escape the news not read more debate about it!

Stay Safe!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #408 –
Quote from: Jack Burton on
I agree Flyboy, and that's about as good as we could expect I reckon. The other thing to consider in community spread is the numbers of people going to supermarkets, bunnings etc. I think it's inevitable that asymptomatic people will spread viruses around these places and other people will pick them up. I really hope the education about washing hands etc will limit this
My Woolies was "dead" today by comparison to other days and normal Saturdays.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #409 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton on
My Woolies was "dead" today by comparison to other days and normal Saturdays.
Interesting, my son went to our local Woolies today and said it was packed, no one showing any respect for social distancing
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #410 –
Quote from: Jack Burton on
Interesting, my son went to our local Woolies today and said it was packed, no one showing any respect for social distancing

Went to local plaza Coles and Aldi on Fri. Quite uncrowded and civilized, even got toilet rolls. When we left the car park was almost deserted. Hard to fathom really.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #411 –
Quote from: Jack Burton on
Interesting, my son went to our local Woolies today and said it was packed, no one showing any respect for social distancing
Nah not here, lines and crosses on the ground being obeyed. People of all ages and cultures making a concerted effort to keep a distance. Woolies should be commended for their efforts to keep people safe (line markings, instore announcements, sanitiser on the way in, sanitising trollies etc. Well done.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #412 –
Quote from: cookie2 on
Went to local plaza Coles and Aldi on Fri. Quite uncrowded and civilized, even got toilet rolls. When we left the car park was almost deserted. Hard to fathom really.
As was Woolies today, got some bog roles for my mum also.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #413 –
And in our little town, the two supermarkets will no longer serve "out of towners". 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #414 –
Quote from: capcom on
And in our little town, the two supermarkets will no longer serve "out of towners". 
Still cant believe buses of out of towners were raiding country supermarkets, over in the States the queues at the local supermarket are being matched by the queues at the local gunshops...

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #417 –
I'm not a forecaster.

I hear some stuff from work,and I pass on what I hear.

1.  Our hospital beds have never been this empty.  They're planning for the worst.

2. They are anticipating a full ICU by april 7.

3.  Peak is currently expected to be mid june.

4.  Despite things not escalating quickly flu season has yet to start in earnest and it's really difficult to know whether or not flu season is going to amplify the effect of the virus.  The incident command center is extremely concerned that things will hit us worse than most other nations thanks to timing. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #418 –
From the HS
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-spreaders-in-australia-where-they-are-coming-from/news-story/bcbb4d274e9b91430a93d8124b7363e4

Exclusive: People travelling from the US have introduced far more cases of coronavirus infections into Australia than China, the country where the pandemic started.

People with a direct link to the Americas, including the US, account for 19 per cent of Australia’s current 3574 infections, Department of Health data shows.

Infectious disease expert and microbiologist Peter Collignon told News Corp that in hindsight, a travel ban should have been placed on flights coming from the US.

Speaking before Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced all international return travellers would be placed in compulsory quarantine, Professor Collignon, from the Australian National University’s medical school, said returning travellers were Australia’s greatest challenge, as they brought the virus with them, and passed it on to their family and close contacts.

“The US is now our main source of infection, the US and Europe much more than China and Iran,’’ he said.

“It’s gone through different countries at different rates. In retrospect we should have put a ban on the US a bit earlier.’’

Prof. Collignon said the Australian rate of community transmission was still very low.


Figures from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, released to News Corp by the Federal Department of Health, show that of the 3166 infections recorded in Australia by 3pm on Friday:

*19 per cent were acquired in the United States;

*19 per cent were acquired at sea (cruise ships);

*12 per cent were acquired in the United Kingdom;

*An unspecified number of other cases were acquired from 60 other countries and regions.

The weekly report on coronavirus cases to March 14 showed that:

*22 per cent of cases had a direct link to US;

*11 per cent had a direct link to Italy;

*9 per cent had a direct link to Iran;

*8 per cent had a direct link to the UK;

*8 per cent had a direct to China;

*6 per cent were Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers repatriated from Japan;

*37 per cent had a recent travel history to other countries.

Prof. Collignon said the vast majority of positive diagnoses of coronavirus in Australia involved people who had returned from overseas and their immediate contacts.

“There is very little evidence of community transmissions in Australia. I think it is encouraging because what we have done is along the same lines as Singapore and Korea have done quite successfully.

“They’ve turned the curve – they’re still getting sporadic case but they’re not getting this exponential rise.

“We had minimal or almost no community spread here, maybe we were lucky because it was our autumn and it was warmer, but there’s been spread in the US for at least six weeks and (in) Europe.’’

Prof. Collignon said Europe remained the largest source of coronavirus cases in Australia but that Australia’ relatively-early travel bans (on countries including Italy and Iran) had helped keep cases down, as had early testing, which began in January.

On Friday, the US overtook China as the country with the most infections, with 100,717 cases recorded by yesterday, compared to 81,897 in China. China is still believed to be not be recording cases of people who show no symptoms.



2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #419 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
4.  Despite things not escalating quickly flu season has yet to start in earnest and it's really difficult to know whether or not flu season is going to amplify the effect of the virus.  The incident command center is extremely concerned that things will hit us worse than most other nations thanks to timing. 
My associates in the Northern hemisphere still seem to think the Flu season has compounded the COVID-19 situation, which might be bad news for us given Flu season is traditionally another month or two away. Hopefully by then we have some drugs for prophylactic effects.

In terms of new cases, today was twice as bad as any day we've had previously, those 111 cases today doubled the next worst day of 54 cases.
The Force Awakens!