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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1440 –
I really don’t understand personal offence taken to Dan saying people broke the rules and are ‘blaming us Victorians’.  Talk about a guilty conscience perhaps. Or maybe just immature.  Talk about being thin skinned.

We’re in the middle of a screwing 1 in 100 year pandemic.  Grow the hell up!

Everyone makes mistakes and certainly when you’re on the fly making decisions, hindsight will highlight the worst of the errors made.  So what do we expect our leaders to do when that occurs? Batten down and get on with the job of leading us, fronting up every day to answer AGGRESSIVE Murdoch media reporters over and over again, not once raising a sweat because god forbid you give those screwers any type of bone to run you down with.  Front up, work day and night, weekend after weekend, ask nicely not to use your DEAD FATHER in a protest that originated from Liberal HQ... or do you run off to Hawaii, smirking like a smug prick when you decide which questions you’ll answer and which you’ll turn your back to - including ones about your CONTROL of aged care that was not managed properly in NSW to begin with and then ignored when safeguards from letting it happen again are told just be put in, and not bat an eye when the hundreds of dead in aged care is your responsibility.

I know who I see as a good leader and who I see as a worthless pile of crap.  One has gotten very lucky at smirking his way around taking  absolutely no responsibility for running this damn country properly.
Amazing how biased media is shining a light up ones arse - for absolutely no worthwhile reason; whilst absolutely bludgeoning the other.

If you want a good laugh and to thank your lucky stars the Liberals are not running this show in Vic, take a look on Tim Smith MPs Facebook page and find the post he put up about asking people to vote on Dan resigning.  It really says it all 😂 dipcrap.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1441 –
Well I agree on the Liberals, I mean they are a mess and I said in another post it is only hypothetical to imagine how they would have run things, but... it is a hypothetical if I am forced to make.. I don't like.
I also agree with the worthless reporting from the likes of Sky News, but then we have left wing media also that bows down to Dan, so that works both ways, but the right wing Sky is one of the worst.
The thing that worries me most about the Liberals is that I do have concerns they would be even worse, with a "open everything" policy, which would be a disaster.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1442 –
Quote from: mateinone on
But isn't it also grandstanding or politicizing to suggest than anyone that thinks Dan should be gone is irrational?
Not a dig, just a question.
I don't think so.

The majority of people who want Dan gone will either throw in a labour or liberal reference....certainly in the media at least. Thus revealing their hand/bias.

You are able to debate the merits of someone (abusing) being in a position of power without trying to point score politically.

Do we bring up which way MLG votes when we debate whether he is the right man for the job? Liddle??
Focus on the individual and the role they are doing. Yes, obviously i get he is a politician, but people who focus on that are not looking at it from a neutral point of view...usually.

Quote from: mateinone on
Would that include me, who is very vocal about poor Dan has been? Despite that fact I consider myself in the middle, I am in the middle left and if there were two equal candidates would vote labour. The 4 best politicians in my life from a Victorian or Federal level have been Bob Hawke, Little Johnny Howard, Jeff Kennett and Steve Bracks. 2 x ALP, 2 x Lib... but I was absolutely ALP in those days and would never have voted for Kennett or Howard.
I don't know you well enough to make that call. But as an example there is a bloke i work with who thinks he is in the middle too. He is about as strong in his beliefs as anyone and is very much 'right' to anyone who talks politics with him.....he doesn't see it that way though....which is laughable if you know him.
That being said, immediately after you and I had this debate the other day, you started a 'who would you vote for' thread, so this is weighing on your mind politically, even if it is indirectly.

Quote from: mateinone on
Well does it need to be compared to people around the world.
I mea I can't name so many other countries with the geographical situation of Victoria. No internationals (at all) after we stopped receiving them, there are not random boat people arriving on the shores of Portsea. We have almost non existant border breaches and that is with states who already have it completely under control.

We had a virus with known infection rates completely under control, failed to quarantine it and then failed to act.

I don't even know why Donald Trump would be used in any comparison, or Putin or Iraq's leaders etc.
I can't make an argument that Papa Doc was an B+ leader because he wasn't Stalin for example.
I am not actually comparing Stalin with Trump or Papa Doc with Dan, I am just stating you can't make a comparison here. They have different powers, run vastly different geographical areas and even then, you are comparing with the worst.

What about in comparison to
Annastacia Palaszczuk
Gladys Berejiklian
Mark McGowan etc

And if you really want an international leader, how close is Dan to Jacinta Arden?
Well this is part of the problem. You talk about the inability to find a parallel with Victoria. This is both a pro and a con. In one way, it has helped us by being in a relatively unique situation. In another way it means we are going into unknown territory of sorts in how to control it.

The reason for bringing up Trump and looking internationally is simply to show that there is not a clear right and wrong, but rather a spectrum. Trump is clearly on the other end of it to Dan. I'm not saying our situations are identical, far from it, but just that there were plenty of other ways Dan could've reacted in this situation.

Personally i think the biggest issue Dan has had to face, and i've said it all along, is that he trusts Victorians too much. He outlines what we should do and he expects us to do it. No, not us, we know better. Those rules don't apply to me, i can do whatever i want because i NEED a latte.  ::)

It reminds me of the whole Myki thing. We scoured the rest of the world for a system to adopt, i think we used Tokyo and/or Japans in the end. I remember at one stage them talking to Germany about their system and how it (IIRC) lacked turnstiles when going into the train stations and what not. The question was posed, how do you make sure people are using the system and paying correctly without turnstiles....the response was, people wouldn't dream of NOT using it correctly - why would they?

A workable solution for Germany, and one that would be well and truly abused by Australians. Much like Dans guidelines IMO. Aussies don't like doing what they are told.....and THAT has cost Dan more than anything,


Quote from: mateinone on
Your language suggests that 2 weeks is well not such a big deal, even when I  suggest there is quite a reasonable chance that more than 50% of infections in the 2nd wave could still have been avoided by acting more quickly.

And btw I think 2 weeks is being extremely generous to Dan, in reality he should have acted as early as 21-25 days sooner than he did. I am using that as the base timeline in my modelling, because it is that time by which he absolutely had no excuses at all, could be under no illusion at all, that this was community wide and a major infection requiring more than wet lettuce responses.
I'm not saying your numbers are wrong.
I'm not saying 2 weeks is insignificant.
I'm just saying that its a spectrum...and 2 weeks is not a lot of time in reality.

Mathematically, 2 weeks (or more as you imply) makes sense.
Logistically, its a bit harder to make that happen.
How much time does it take you to go through every industry in Australia with a fine tooth comb and weight up whether it is more beneficial to close it for Covid reasons, or keep it open for financial reasons?
Remember how people continued to try and pick apart each stage of the lockdowns and look for inaccuracies?
Why am i not allowed to play golf? I am social distancing, and exercising, but i can't play.....BS!

How many micro-examples need to be worked through in order to put out a new lockdown stage. I appreciate some of this work can be done prior, but to suggest its just a switch we can flick and tada.....is where the mathematical models and the real world models simply cannot line up.

So kudos for you for working out timeframes etc, but you didn't have to work out the how and why of it all.

As far as where i sit in all this from a personal point of view...
I am working in the construction industry....which in reality is one of Dans favourite sectors.
I have been largely unaffected by COVID, thankfully.

However, i was pushing for construction to be locked down as well as a means to an end for this virus, ala Ardern when we went to stage 4. I didn't want this stage 4 to have to be increased in duration, or go to a stage 5 which included construction, because he did not go hard enough in implementing it.

In the end, we've got the best of both worlds. Containing Covid and keeping the economy going somewhat via construction in the process. That is another big tick for Dan, despite being of the opinion that call was initially wrong IMO.

So again, mathematical numbers vs logistics of reality is my take on the 2nd wave side of things.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1443 –
Just a quick comment... really enjoyed reading the intelligent conversation between K and MIO.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1444 –
Yep cracking stuff.

Meanwhile, one could also argue that you lock us down first and ask questions later about what is going to be allowed (yes I am aware of the outrage).  I think the public would probably cope well enough with that initially even if it means you go to a harsh lockdown for a few days and then give people the appropriate communication but thats a hindsight argument, and one they may employ next time.

I am of the belief there will be a next time too by the way.  It will likely happen a lot later than anyone is expecting, when COVID is a distant memory, but FLU season comes around every year, and COVID season is likely to come with it.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1445 –
I don't have a particular issue with regards to what you said, only that I would say most of my friends think I am left wing when I think I have moved to the center, but you are right being introspective is not always the easiest thing and I can openly say at times I have realised I have shown biases in conversations I have thought I have been impartial in.
But that is different than having an agenda in any case.

But back to the only real main issue I have problem with there.
Dan didn't have to work out how a lockdown would look with only a moments notice, not by any stretch, not did he need to do it without support.
June 30th.. This is the date that drew me back into statistically analyzing data again for this virus. July 23rd we went to stage 3. It was already apparent that steps taken at that stage would only start to impact when the virus was at a rate 3 times higher than in the peak of the first wave.
Now Dan had the 2nd half of June to start to show real concern and should have already had a clear plan in place come July 1, but as stated I worked mine out on what would have occurred with stage 3 a little over a week after that.

Dan acted much more swiftly in the first wave and deserved every plaudit thrown his way at that stage.
But you don't have weeks on end to respond in a situation like this, because it costs lives.
I think the vast majority of Victorian's supported the lockdown and again I am in that boat, but the inaction of the government to respond in an efficient manner cost hundreds of lives, that is not just a hypothetical, that is a fact. If a government was responsible for decisions resulting in this many deaths in any other situation they would face criminal charges ( not that I am suggesting Dan should actually face any charges), but at a minimum I think it is absolutely appropriate to question the response.
Apart from the death and infection rates, of course it also directly resulted in a longer period of lockdown.

There was very very little doubt that the situation was out of control by June 30th, but by 7-10 days later, it was irrefutable.
Dan found level 2 lockdowns in the first phase were not appropriate enough to resolve the issue, when the majority of cases were international travelers or contacts of international travelers. Knowing there was more of an unknown factor in the community spread it is impossible to believe the government could be clueless enough to not realise it had to act, but still it implemented soft leaf restrictions that were not enough. Some of these were okay and they did impact the degree of spread, but they were not hard enough and the government had enough information at hand that they should understood this.

If this happened in wave 1, I would understand it more (well I would have had serious questions as I was also calling for an early lockdown in wave 1), but in wave 2, with the knowledge of the virus at a more mature level, I find it inexcusable.

Somethings would seem straight forward
Lockdown Aged Care from any visitors when the virus was in the community
Have an advanced track/trace method in place
Have tests that are returning results to patients in a expedient manner.

These are just a few things that should have been in place, but also.. why was there not already a roadmap on restrictions..
We hit these trigger points, we will do this, then this.. etc
These could have been (and should have been) worked out and distributed to different sectors of the community, specifically business leaders.

Failing to prepare in the midst of a global pandemic seems negligent to me.
Dan didn't need to just look and say "okay this looks bad" and then shut things down, this could very easily have been predetermined... and again it would have saved a lot of lives and a lot of hospitalizations.


Quote from: kruddler
That being said, immediately after you and I had this debate the other day, you started a 'who would you vote for' thread, so this is weighing on your mind politically, even if it is indirectly
Well it is true I don't think Dan should be in government, but probably I would vote labour if Dan was gone (as it stands now), but I could swing to Labour is Dan fixes the situation still, just because the Liberals are so screwed as well.
But.. my interest was more general than you suggest.. Dan would have won an election in absolute landslide at the end of April, I was interested whether or not the public still felt this way or whether there was a strong or slight switch away from him. I wondered in the context that I had personally experienced this.

Also I am not against anyone voting for or against Dan. I am not against anyone thinking he done a great job or a poor job, in reality both sides have merits.
But from my perspective, I am more interested in putting the tough questions to anyone in charge.
And it happens of course that data and statistics happens to be the area I worked for a very long time, so analyzing situations and stats and facts frustrates me when I see things I don't like.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1446 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
I am of the belief there will be a next time too by the way.  It will likely happen a lot later than anyone is expecting, when COVID is a distant memory, but FLU season comes around every year, and COVID season is likely to come with it.

I am also, but I think with our geographical advantages afforded us, that we should be able to have some well published trigger points that the community is aware of and can prepare for and it should have a very high chance of not requiring a full lockdown again. Data should have multiple trigger points and there should be potentially actions per LGA etc, but this should all be able to be mapped out.

But they cannot use 14 day averages for this, that is absolutely certain.
In fact I would have 1, 3, 5 & 7 day triggers and if any of these are met, they results in different levels of actions.
The first levels of restrictions can be as simple as wearing masks outside your home and restricting numbers in buildings.
And they can get much tighter, but that is just details.

 
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1447 –
We can discuss the politics and the politicians involved in all of this but we must also look into the public service and how well that is performing in terms of systems, people and technology in place to discharge its responsibilities,  in this case manage  a pandemic. I firmly believe it is sadly lacking and the problems we have witnessed are systemic.  Politicians should be focused on sorting them out as well as managing the current crisis and we, the public, should be kept fully informed and not lied to.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1448 –
Quote from: cookie2 on
We can discuss the politics and the politicians involved in all of this but we must also look into the public service and how well that is performing in terms of systems, people and technology in place to discharge its responsibilities,  in this case manage  a pandemic. I firmly believe it is sadly lacking and the problems we have witnessed are systemic.  Politicians should be focused on sorting them out as well as managing the current crisis and we, the public, should be kept fully informed and not lied to.
The trouble is the politicians know where the bread gets buttered, the bureaucracy can make life easy or hard for them so the politicians are compliant and pretty much toothless in dealing with them, the Yes Minister or The Thick of It joke isn't such a joke at all!

Unfortunately, the general public tend to lump the medical professionals in with the bureaucracy that runs health, so as the disdain for the decision making grows so does the distrust in the medical professionals which is largely an unwarranted correlation.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1449 –
@mateinone
I did make a point of how work on next stage of lockdowns are worked upon prior to the actual date.
The point i make still remains though. How much time do you need to go through every inch of industry and work out what we can and can't afford to close in terms of achieving/limiting the community transmission and at the same time trying to walk a fine line economically? THEN factor in how to actually brief the public so they don't start to riot!

Just on this, the day before stage 4 was announced there was a leak of what stage 4 could look like. Without seeing a date on document, it was clear that it was pretty close to what ended up happening, however, there will still some differences between that draft and the final. Dan said in his stage 4 press conference when quizzed about some differences between the 2 that he is unaware of which version the media were looking at. This clearly suggests that there have been multiple rewrites as data becomes available.

Another thing. I cannot recall where it was, but someone was talking about a country/city that imposed some kind of lockdown and insisted on masks etc, but there was physically not enough masks for the population to actually wear, especially when factoring in the needs of hospitals and the like. Another point on logistics vs mathematics i was referring too.

Finally the majority of cases have been in aged care. I'm not sure how much has been said publicly on the matter, but some of those numbers are inflated. Some people are dying and its being put down as Covid related despite never having a test for it while they were alive, or after. I said some time back that this kind of thing was happening in the US too. I'm not sure how much of that (mis)information is politically driven, but i'm sceptical of that. Of course the aged care industry has been exposed as being sub-par....mainly federal run sections of it too which is a whole other can of worms.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1450 –
But Kruddler
You seem to at one stage suggest it could have shut down, but then suggest logistics means it couldn't easily.
But why couldn't there be trigger points, I means when we were 2x, 3x, heading for 5 x and eventually ending on 7x the weekly rate from wave 1

I understand logistics are a big factor, but I don't buy that it creates the lead time we seen.
No offense Kruddler, but you seem so invested in one side of the story that you are sure there must be alternative reasons. Perhaps I am so sure of my position it makes me scoff at such reasons as being okay..

But I can't buy that we "had" to have the extra 10,000 or so infections, because Dan couldn't get the logistics right, it implies we would need to face the same scenario if there is another wave.

Also the test, track/trace was a huge stuff up.

I mean the people most responsible for the size and duration of this outbreak is the government. Yes the age demographics suggest there are people doing the wrong thing to of course and we see that with the fines and the idiots, but most people are compliant and with sensible, well implemented and strong enough restrictions in place sooner, many many lives would have been saved.

The government though does not even want to share the data on the decision making, because it goes against he public interest.
From today's papers.

Quote
Victoria’s curfew was put in place on August 2 to run from 8pm to 5am.

From September 14 it was loosened by former deputy public health commander Michelle Giles to 9pm to 5am and was due to expire on October 11.

Prof Giles had only spent nine days in the role when she signed off on the curfew and told the court she acted without any influence from Daniel Andrews or his office.

She said she made the decision based on government data that proved “a clear and direct correlation” between stage 4 restrictions and a reduction in case numbers.

However, that data remains secret data has not been tendered in court.

The Herald Sun reports that the lawyers representing the state government said they would resist the production of the data on public interest immunity grounds – which means the release of the documents would be against the public interest.

I mean come on, we don't have people mature enough to make debates and need to hide such data as though it is a state secret?
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1451 –
With the 14 day average now below trigger points for the road map, it will be interesting on Sunday to see if there are some restrictions that will be lifted early.

There is significant pressure by business and on business that I think some more will be allowed to open their doors again.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1452 –
The fundamental problem as I see it is that the politicians flip between ideologies of control versus extinction, it is driving the decision making. They have people some of them qualified but some unqualified whispering in their ear.

NZ must have been a real wake up call, and certainly a game changer for anyone except the morbidly stupid, over there the politicians want to point the finger but the science is telling them the virus is now endemic like the flu.

Virus extinction is not a real world option, it never was, but it is a wish or a dream some still have!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1453 –
@MIO...
Obviously with some of this i'm speculating because i don't work for the government. I said earlier that i'm playing devils advocate in parts.

For the record, i'm not saying what he has done has been perfect. Nobody is.
Instead i'm saying i can understand the overall picture to a degree and i'm not arguing the modelling as that is your baby and i trust your judgement on those things.

Again, on the overall spectrum he has done well. Would he do some things different if he had his time again? Sure. Wouldn't everybody??

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1454 –
Quote from: kruddler on
For the record, i'm not saying what he has done has been perfect. Nobody is.
Instead i'm saying i can understand the overall picture to a degree and i'm not arguing the modelling as that is your baby and i trust your judgement on those things.

Again, on the overall spectrum he has done well. Would he do some things different if he had his time again? Sure. Wouldn't everybody??

I think that is our fundamental difference, I think on the overall spectrum he has not, on the first wave.. immensely successful, on the 2nd, really awful.

Btw on the restrictions, I would ease this week, but only ever so slightly, my issue with the road map he has is the next phase.

At the current rate, without some uncharted outbreak (which can happen so easily when the numbers are so low), we are on track for being under 15 cases (average over 14 days for the state) around October 1-2.
That for me is when things get interesting, because NSW peaked at 13 cases a day averaged over 2 weeks in August and have managed to keep things relatively under control to date. Once Vicitoria's numbers go under NSW's peak numbers, it is going to be a hard sell to suggest that people really can't go and get a packet of smokes or a loaf of bread at 7/11 at 11pm at night.

I am not against it now, but it is going to be very interesting if things change... Despite all my disappointment in Dan's handling in this case, which I have posted also away from here, I have also posted that I have faith they will alter the roadmap, it is just a case of  when.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL