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Topic: CV and mad panic behaviour (Read 438966 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1500 –
Im still of the firm belief it wont make a difference.

Im surprised we haven't had wide spread covid outbreaks across the nation at this stage.  Its only a matter of time IMHO and no procedures or quarantine will stop it.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1501 –
Quote from: LP on
Anyone who thinks some political change can resolve the COVID situation is fooling themselves, votes don't stop a virus. Neither does having a fat wallet, just ask Donald Trump's brother!

The terrible situations unfolding in Sweden and the UK is enough evidence of that being too optimistic can be very detrimental, these are the places the COVID naysayers held high as examples of doing it right, and now the very sames regions are sliding into COVID infamy! FFS, the UK just announce £18000 fines ($32000) for quarantine breakers, as here we complain about police handing out $1500 fines locally!

What "terrible situation" in the UK and Sweden?

Positive tests in a low prevalence population are more likely to be false positives than real positives, not to mention a positive test can also be a result of the person having had the virus up to a few months previously....

All that really matters is mortality and that's where fear mongers like you fall flat on their faces.

Cases, in isolation, mean jack.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1502 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
What "terrible situation" in the UK and Sweden?
Positive tests in a low prevalence population are more likely to be false positives than real positives, not to mention a positive test can also be a result of the person having had the virus up to a few months previously....

All that really matters is mortality and that's where fear mongers like you fall flat on their faces.

Cases, in isolation, mean jack.
Testing positive for COVID infection is not the same as testing positive to anti-bodies weeks or months later, that is a mashup of two different tests!

In any case regardless of the numbers tests being false positive is a good thing, the tests are deliberately designed that way it is not a conspiracy! Some might argue the Hippocratic oath requires it, which means it is better to tell someone they might be sick rather than telling them they aren't sick just before they die!

Technically official false positives are expressed as a fraction of all positives, not as a fraction of all tests. Some sources like to mangle the figures, whether you want to think that is accidental due to ignorance or deliberate is really a matter for the reader.

Reporting "The percentage of false positives from all positives" as "the percentage of false positives from all tests" is pretty misleading, they are two vastly different figures. In one case False positives from all tests might be 0.24%, while false positives from all positives might be 8%. Further complicating the reporting is the fact that multiple testing regimes are used, they do not have the same rate of false positive or sensitivity.

The current rate of change in positives for the UK and Sweden is disastrous for them, the derivative of the infection rate curve, dY/dX for the maths people. It's the change in the rate of infection growth. Things are looking bleak in the UK and Sweden, which is why both regions are now talking drastic action with restrictions even far exceeding Victoria's Stage 4!

Deaths lag infections by about 4 to 7 weeks, the crap is going to get real in those regions and the politicians know it which is why they are talking tough now.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1503 –
Quote from: mateinone on
Take this with a grain of salt, because I cannot confirm the voracity of the source, but...
There is talk Tim Pallas will be the leader, possibly by as early as tomorrow, but at the latest next week. With the supposed "word" being that Pallas has the numbers and so Dan will resign citing "family reasons" in a bloodless coup.

I think he has snuffed this one out pretty quickly today
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1504 –
Apparently Martin Foley will take over from Mikakos.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1505 –
Yeah Dan confirmed that.
Btw his handling of Mikakos... I would suggest if she has any dirt at all on Dan, there is a chance this comes back to bite his arse.
Because he treated her with complete disdain. Now okay, she seems to have screwed up royally and I have no issue with her resigning and it seems absolutely correct on the surface, but... Dan could not wash his hands of her any quicker if he tried.
Amazing to see.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1506 –
I wish we could see what is going down in the bureaucracy, but we may never find out!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1507 –
Sorry,
I'm not seeing the problem in Sweden either....
How is it worse than other countries in that area.
They had an horrific run early in the pandemic...apparently they didn't lock down as hard as other countries.
But their numbers and deaths seem to have tapered off.
Are they getting a second wave worse than other places in Europe?



Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1508 –
Quote from: Lods on
Sorry,
I'm not seeing the problem in Sweden either....
How is it worse than other countries in that area.
They had an horrific run early in the pandemic...apparently they didn't lock down as hard as other countries.
But their numbers and deaths seem to have tapered off.
Are they getting a second wave worse than other places in Europe?


My understanding was that Sweden were not locking down at all.

In fact that were basically ignoring that there even was a pandemic.
If everybody gets it, they don't have a problem.

At least that was their initial plan, i'm not sure if they deviated from it.....but it has merit.....assuming you can't get 'reinfected' and do build up an immunity that is.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1509 –
Quote from: Lods on
Sorry,
I'm not seeing the problem in Sweden either....
How is it worse than other countries in that area.
They had an horrific run early in the pandemic...apparently they didn't lock down as hard as other countries.
But their numbers and deaths seem to have tapered off.
Are they getting a second wave worse than other places in Europe?

No, they're not ... nuthin' like France and Spain at least Lods

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1510 –
Quote from: Lods on
Sorry,
I'm not seeing the problem in Sweden either....
How is it worse than other countries in that area.
They had an horrific run early in the pandemic...apparently they didn't lock down as hard as other countries.
But their numbers and deaths seem to have tapered off.
Are they getting a second wave worse than other places in Europe?
New infection cases are just starting to spike, so much for herd immunity by attrition! ;)

So now Sweden's domestic politicians are talking regional lock-downs Victoria style. Having suffered horribly in the start with 319 deaths per million, more than tenfold higher than some neighbouring countries to preserve some fiscal posterity, they are now talking about wearing the very same regional pain as other location$. It looks like they have worn a bunch of deaths for nothing basically! The Swedes are spinning it as moving towards controlled and capped restrictions, in effect that is the same failed path that Britain had already tried.

Britain in the meantime has now legislated one of the world's highest personal fines to try and put a brake on the rapidly growing infection rate. My associates in the UK say things are looking very grim as Autumn arrives, especially with the growing number of re-infection cases and no signs of a wide-spread vaccine before mid-2021.

Globally there is a bigger problem, there are a number of studies coming out now showing significant long term cost of moderate COVID infections. These are infections that did not require hospitalisation, "Just a cold" type infections, except a significant percentage of those infected now have signs of heart and lung damage at 3 to 6 months after COVID infection.

Just a cold! :o
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1511 –
For those waiting for a vaccine, as the politicians keep telling us that it is already organised if successfully developed.

I heard a nice summary of the chances of a successful vaccine from an immunologist talking on a Nature or Science Podcast.

Vaccine in trials proceed at the rate of 1 in 10 for each stage, with typically 4 or 5 stages but as many as 6 stages.

So that would mean;
Stage 1; 10% Proceed to Stage 2
Stage 2: 10% Proceed to Stage 3
Stage 3: 10% Proceed to Stage 4
Stage 4 through 6: About 10% Proceed Manufacturing

That is one vaccine out of every ten thousand investigated.

The speaker did reiterate that this will no be the case for the COVID vaccine, why;

Authorities have already conceded they must accept more risk to quickly find viable COVID vaccines!

Also mentioned was the fact that getting a vaccine does not mean being free of infection. Apparently many vaccines can reduce or eliminate the symptoms, but still leave the person open to be infected and capable of transmitting the virus to others, which is a major reasons many vaccines fail late in clinical trials, the vaccine makes you a super-spreader because you get infected without getting sick!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1512 –
Quote from: LP on
For those waiting for a vaccine, as the politicians keep telling us that it is already organised if successfully developed.

I heard a nice summary of the chances of a successful vaccine from an immunologist talking on a Nature or Science Podcast.

Vaccine in trials proceed at the rate of 1 in 10 for each stage, with typically 4 or 5 stages.

 So that would mean;
Stage 1; 10% Proceed to Stage 2
Stage 2: 10% Proceed to Stage 3
Stage 3: 10% Proceed to Stage 4
Stage 4 through 6: About 10% Proceed Manufacture

That is one vaccine out of every ten thousand investigated.

The speaker did reiterate that this will no be the case for the COVID vaccine, why;

Things may be sped up a bit due to the start of a vaccine for SARS a decade (or so) ago. Very similar diseases, so have a bit of a head start of sorts.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1513 –
Quote from: kruddler on
Things may be sped up a bit due to the start of a vaccine for SARS a decade (or so) ago. Very similar diseases, so have a bit of a head start of sorts.
The two major candidate vaccines are using techniques never used ever before, there is no precedent for them. The conventional pathways are not going to be delivering vaccines anytime soon.

I heard a researcher who had worked on the original SARS, in fact their programme to develop a vaccine was cancelled a few years after the SARS outbreak subsided. They said even if it had not been cancelled they still might not have a viable vaccine 14 years later, but they felt they would have been much better placed with background knowledge to deal with SARs-CoV-2, of course the programme was cut to save money!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1514 –
Quote from: LP on
The two major candidate vaccines are using techniques never used ever before.
Obviously you don't have to follow the same path, but i suspect some do.