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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2340 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
Who do you think you are?
The poster highlighting the flawed logic of numpties.

fwiw, I think @DJC's inference that corruption might have something to do with minimal cohort studies, might be a bit to close to the bone for some of the Saffies to bear! Belgium and Netherland aren't much better, both cultures are world famous in research circles for ripping off IP, Netherland because it makes use of manipulative EU regulations is even more notorious and less trusted than China!

For scientists the problem calling this out is that they won't do it, they are dependant on funding and their careers live and die by a single mistake, no matter how small the risk they will never make a definitive statement even when they know published material is questionable. They just make some bland comment like, well maybe but we need further study before making the call.

In the meantime, let's ban all the carrots!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2341 –
Quote from: LP on
Yet numpties want to accept the 1000 x 31 year old trial as proof something is NBG with one vaccine, but rail against the evidence from a good portion of 320M vaccinations! That is the definition of cherry-picking.

You have highlighted cherry picking with your pro-vaccination government inspired propaganda, while at the same time labelling all the governments against the vaccines (and not even against, just suspending pending more info) as having an agenda to push.

Thats like asking people who are fighting a war if they are the good guys or the bad guys. Everyone sees themselves as a good guy. Yet clearly that cannot be the case.

Its all relative and about perception.

Now again, i am very pro-vaccine and am more than happy for people to get it and will support their right to get it.
But, i'm also using some commen sense, if something will go wrong, it will go wrong initially. Hell, look at the doctor who didn't know how much of the vaccine to give people and killed them. Its not JUST about the vaccine.

Of course it doesn't matter how much data we've got, zero of it shows any potential long term issues that could be associated with it.

Sometimes people with a bit of knowledge and the best of intentions get things wrong and their are unforeseen issues that result.

My favourite story about the above is in relation to Thomas Midgley Jnr.
Short version.
He was a mechanical engineer who holds over 100 patents.
1. He managed to reduce knocking in engines by introducing an additive to petrol.
2. He managed to come up an alternative to the toxic, flammable and explosive gasses used in refrigerants in the 1920's.
3. He managed to invent a system of ropes and pulleys to help people with polio get themselves out of bed.

So what is the problem?
1. That was lead. He came up with leaded petrol which has caused untold damage to individuals worldwide via lead poisoning.
2. That was CFCs. That has ruined the ozone layer and caused untold damage to individuals worldwide via skin cancer.
3. That was for himself, amongst others. He died using that contraption as it malfunctioned and strangled him to death.

The first 2 were still being used during our lifetime, but were perfectly fine when we were kids.......or were they.

A brilliant man (not a joe average) who was a revolutionary.....that killed many by unforeseen side effects....including himself!

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

So forgive me for not jumping head first into this and being wary of potential side effects that are yet to be discovered.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2342 –
Quote from: kruddler on
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

So forgive me for not jumping head first into this and being wary of potential side effects that are yet to be discovered.
As I've mentioned at least once before in this thread, being cautious and sceptical is part of the scientific method, that is the correct way to go about things, based on evidence using repeatable and dependable observations, not based on hearsay.

The suspension of vaccine roll out is not the burial some on here have demonstrated they are interested in. Not everyone thinks reducing the global NIMBY population by horrendous death is a good idea, which is just a few small steps beyond "I'm alright Jack!". Perhaps they'll donate to build an anti-virus wall, let's start a crowdfunding site! ;D

There is a lot of politics, AstraZeneca is the only company doing this as "not for profit"! That's ruffled a lot of industry and corporate feathers, because AstraZeneca now have more than a dozen countries on board building AstraZeneca compatible facilities just like Australia. Some media types, usually business commentators, believe the idea of a big business doing something not-for-profit is antithetical to the corporate concept. Now today you'll find media starting to clarify comments, it'll be stuff like it could be related to a specific batch or it's a manufacturing error in a small quantity only. They are trying to paint out AstraZeneca's manufacturing method as unreliable, we don't want the next possible edition of Thalidomide, unfortunately these people reporting aren't bound by any ethical standards. I've seen this pattern of behaviour before, it is designed to spread doubt and brake rapid progress while opponents catch up, social media just bends over and takes a full load willingly.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2343 –
Quote from: kruddler on
Of course it doesn't matter how much data we've got, zero of it shows any potential long term issues that could be associated with it.
I have to correct you on this, it's wrong to draw that conclusion based on human experience.

Problems do not just switch on at some future date, in the real world problems occur on a spectrum of time intervals like a bell curve. Some may show a problem in a few minutes, others a few weeks, others in months.

So if you do enough tests not just in medicine but also in engineering and any other manufacturing process. If something is likely to develop in the future, you have to see it already in the present when you have enough test cases, and we have a large portion of 320 Million which is a testing order of magnitude higher than anything ever before.

Secondly specific to vaccines, they do not persist in your body forever, they are only short lived. Within a month or so there is no detectable trace left, only the immune response caused by the vaccine remains detectable. Just like finding antibodies in people who have had COVID-19, but not finding COVID-19 in the same person. The two main long term immune system components are antibodies and Memory T-Cells, antibodies only last a few months or maybe a year or so, which is why you have to regularly get flu shots, Memory T-Cells are the long lived residual effect and could last a lifetime but it is not guaranteed.

The scenarios people are imagining on social media are Hollywood science fiction movie plots, not real world.

I heard an interesting discussion last night on the BBC World. The scientist commentating made the point not only have we never made vaccines like this on this scale before, we've never made syringes, needles or vials or shipped them on the same scale before either. If the problems postulated by Norway are true, they could just as easily come from a batch of any one of these things. All will be part of the review. This is assuming the effect is real and the cause is just accidental, because apparently there has already been several people arrested globally for contaminating / damaging batches of vaccine. Are humans the problem again?
The Force Awakens!
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2345 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 on
GTC...They dont reduce the effects to zero and if you are on the heavy duty variety like the old rat poison (warfarin) you find you are still able to get clots via interaction with other drugs, food and other underlying conditions.
Like I said only your own GP knows what you are on and as we know with a lot of older folk they take a cocktail of several drugs
which interact differently with each other. My mother in law took warferin, it was a nightmare to manage given her other conditions, dosage changed every week. You dont need a vaccine with possible clot effects adding to that, get one that is proven not to be a potential trigger ie maybe wait for the Novavax..
Are we actually checking people and working out what is the best vaccine to suit them or just randomly jabbing them with whats available?
Would you entertain a long haul flight after a couple of jabs of astrazeneca, you might not even know you are a potential clot candidate...?

As a note that may give you some confidence, EB1 Old Son, my father was on Warfarin for about 25 years. The initial stages were difficult as they ascertained the correct dosage for him considering his emphysema, heavy drinking (which he refused to stop) and he made it through to 86 (passed away on Christmas Day just gone). Had he looked after himself better, he'd have easily passed 90.

However, I, also, will be balking at Astra and I hope our govt doesn't favour cost over community risk and continues strong scrutiny of this particular vaccine, especially when there are others which are not reporting anything other than minor reactions - which are to be expected as the immune system identifies, fights and adjusts to its job of tackling Covid should it enter the body.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2346 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-16/germany-italy-france-suspend-use-of-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine/13251544
Rolling coverage: Australians shouldn’t hold concerns over AstraZeneca vaccine, expert says

A leading Victorian epidemiologist has questioned the “extreme” decision of European regulators to pause the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine rollout.
Quote from: Professor Catherine Bennett
Deakin University Chair of Epidemiology Professor Catherine Bennett said it was a surprising move, given the extremely low cases of people experiencing blood clots and the lack of evidence to suggest they were caused by the vaccine.

 "It does seem a more extreme step to actually suspend. But it is a suspension, it’s only a two-week suspension and I’d be expecting them to resume in two weeks time,” she said.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2347 –
I can kind of see where LP is coming from. We don't know whether those decisions to suspend the AZ vaccine are purely political, somewhat political, how much heed they have paid to their in house scientists etc. Perhaps European scientists are more risk averse.

The numbers for blood clotting etc. seem very low, but it is far too early to be drawing solid conclusions. 

What do they hope to achieve by a two week suspension ?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2349 –
Yes but given how we've responded to the covid threat you would think we'd take the same precautions with the vaccine.


It's very hard to build confidence in something you have been told is perfectly safe until it isn't and countries start suspending its administration and you are still told its perfectly safe.

Meanwhile any other assertion is dismissed as a conspiracy theory yet here we are trying to believe one assertion over the other.

The only assertion I can make with some accuracy is that we are indeed not being told the whole truth and I'd be correct more often than not.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2350 –
Quote from: PaulP on
What do they hope to achieve by a two week suspension?
It's meaningless, the alleged numbers are so low from vaccinations that have taken weeks and/or months to issue almost nothing can be achieved by the suspension. As I predicted earlier today, some sites are now reporting it's just two batches they are worried about.

What they will probably eventually state in a week or two is that the incidence of blood clots in people being vaccinated AstraZeneca doesn't deviate from the global mean, not different to any other vaccine, injection, procedure or head count. But they already know that from the 17 million AstraZeneca doses handed out in the UK, that doesn't mean any vaccine or procedure gets to avoid vigilance.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2351 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
Yes but given how we've responded to the covid threat you would think we'd take the same precautions with the vaccine.

It's very hard to build confidence in something you have been told is perfectly safe until it isn't and countries start suspending its administration and you are still told its perfectly safe.

Meanwhile any other assertion is dismissed as a conspiracy theory yet here we are trying to believe one assertion over the other.

The only assertion I can make with some accuracy is that we are indeed not being told the whole truth and I'd be correct more often than not.
It's not dismissed as a conspiracy theory that is social media talk, and there are plenty of precautions being taken more than is usual.

The scientific consensus is the the alleged rate is so low it's not more than is predicted by the epidemiology of a cohort that is the same size, and that it doesn't warrant the suspension issued primarily by bureaucrats and politicians.

The problem is the case being argued to stop vaccination bears no great validity, and the points made to support that stop can actually be equally applied to both sides of the debate for and against for a net effect of zero. You cannot just selectively apply those points to one side of the debate, they have to be applied equally to both and the result them becomes null.

What isn't symmetrical is that one side of this debate is supported by the weight of vaccination numbers, which is a fact not a conspiracy or opinion.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2352 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I can kind of see where LP is coming from. We don't know whether those decisions to suspend the AZ vaccine are purely political, somewhat political, how much heed they have paid to their in house scientists etc. Perhaps European scientists are more risk averse.

The numbers for blood clotting etc. seem very low, but it is far too early to be drawing solid conclusions. 

What do they hope to achieve by a two week suspension ?
Dont think the South African scrapping of the vaccine had anything to do with politics, it failed testing with regards their own strain
and will cost them more having switched in the main to the Johnson/Johnson vaccine.
Herd immunity is fine until the herd stragglers who get picked off by a blood clot or other failure are one of your family, maybe these other countries value the lives of their citizens a bit more and are prepared to put more work into thorough testing than looking to save a dollar than some other nations.
Its also very choice when your Prime Minister sprukes the vaccine with the problems but he and his ministers have all had the alternate ie the Pfizer.....very Mary Antoinette.... let the people have the AstraZ.....

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2353 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 on
Dont think the South African scrapping of the vaccine had anything to do with politics, it failed testing with regards their own strain
and will cost them more having switched in the main to the Johnson/Johnson vaccine.
How did the replication trials of the Sth African result go, nobody it seems has been able to come out and support the Sth African result so far and several countries are testing the strain!

The official position is this;
Quote
A small study of 2,000 people in South Africa has shown that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine offers minimal protection against mild cases of the South African variant.

The study, which was based people of an average age of 31, shows that protection may be as low as 10%. The research wasn’t able to determine whether it protects against serious illness or hospitalisation, because this group of people were at low risk of serious illness. Other research suggests that the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the South African strain. More research is needed in this area.

Oxford University is working on adapting the vaccine to ensure that it protects against this variant, as well as other strains. They have said a ‘booster’ jab could be available by autumn 2021.

There are currently only a small number of cases of the South African variant, and governments have put measures in place to minimise community spread of this variant.

 
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2354 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
He didn't lose you after his toddlers choking on carrots anology?

I must have missed it. The point being, it is not unreasonable to speculate whether the suspensions are more influenced by politics or science, given the current circumstances and given what we know about how both science and politics operate. I'm not saying LP or anyone else is right or wrong. But it's a fair question IMO.