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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3540 –
Quote from: LP on
That is perhaps a confusion of the consequences and benefits of vaccination with the fundamental characteristics of the virus.

Regarding virulence:
The R0 is a growth factor, Influenza's R0 is suggested to be 1.3, normal COVID-19 is about R0 of 2.5, the COVID Delta variant R0 is initially showing as 7.0. This is massively different because the reproduction number describes exponential growth.

Influenza R0 = 1.3, after 4 generations the infection count is just 2.8

COVID-19 R0 = 2.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 16

COVID-19 Delta R0 of 7.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 2401

Even if the COVID Delta variant is 100x less lethal than Influenza it works out just as deadly, unfortunately in the real world COVID-19 Delta it is more deadly/lethal than Influenza.

Also, with a higher the R0 a much higher percentage of community resistance must be achieved to reach herd immunity, an R0 of 2.0 requires about 60% resistance, an R0 of 7.0 requires about 90% resistance.

The basic math is why the authorities are crapting themselves about the COVID-19 Delta variant.

Thanks teacher for the maths lesson - you arrogant dill. ROFL.

Basic maths or basic modelling?

Models are a function of GIGO - and that's all we've seen from all and sundry wrt the bug. From that dill at the Imperial College to the buffoons who were modelling here last year - orders of magnitude off reality....

The data doesn't lie - Delta/Indian was in full bloom in UK well before the vaxxing was done to any significant degree - as my charts evidence - and not even a blip. Again, cases mean jack if there is no uptick in hospitalisation or deaths.

It was the cry here - and nada - and guess what a new strain surfaces.

Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3541 –
Quote from: Mav on
Covid-19’s Delta variant means it’s ‘absolutely essential’ to protect children from infection, experts say, ABC.

Seems long-Covid is a major concern. Now, if Covid is just like flu, why haven’t we ever heard about long-flu?

So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.

As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.

I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3542 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.

As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.

I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653
I mentioned previously that ambo callouts were way up for mental health problems with CoVid mainly and that info was from ambo officers at the coalface and not the govt stats who dont record that type of info unless its a hospital admission..
Hardly an ambo callout for Covid itself though during the peaking months..

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3543 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.

As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.

I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653

FB77. How about making a point without resorting to insults and putdowns - they don't strengthen your argument.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3544 –
Quote from: Baggers on
FB77. How about making a point without resorting to insults and putdowns - they don't strengthen your argument.

Do you ask the same of LP Baggers?

He's as condescending as they come.....

https://www.covidmedicalnetwork.com/media/interviews/asia-pacific-today/vaccine-rollout-must-stop.aspx
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3545 –
I'm not comfortable taking covid advice from a cardiologist.
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3546 –
ps I'll apologise, I do get rather emotional when unequivocal data is put up and the likes of LP have nothing to counter it with but do so anyway.

I run three businesses - 1.5 of them have been destroyed by these entirely (aside maybe the first few weeks at the start of this thing last year) pointless, useless, idiotic lockdowns.

I'm ok but I worry for the future of my kids and indeed, this once great State - laid bare by a charlatan.

When the likes of Mav put up stuff suggesting lockdowns are just A ok, i blow smoke.

Never in the history of pandemics have lockdowns been advocated by any public health authority prior to the start of 2020.

For the very reason that the net damage to society and the economy is simply too great. And this was always very well understood and accepted.

And the data clearly shows the flu is a bigger killer than this virus in all the younger age demographics (maybe up to 40 or 45, i can't be bothered digging out the data now). If you don't want to believe that, sobeit. But you're wrong.

For that I'm sorry.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3548 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
And bang, limp ad hominem attack.

soft as Paul, real soft.

Some of us don't have the time to investigate every garbologist, greengrocer, taxi driver, cardiologist etc., who think they know better than the experts in their field. And very few of us possess your obvious talents for data analysis.

If that makes me an ad hominem attacker, I can live with that.

We're just trying to follow the rules, the expert advice, and do the right thing, to protect ourselves, and protect others. If you believe it's all a hysterical overreaction, that is a matter for you.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3549 –
Do a very simple Google search, " is covid more dangerous than the flu", and see the hits that show up. Here's a very small sample :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/14/is-covid-more-deadly-and-contagious-than-seasonal-flu

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=252335

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows#1

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext

It's not correct to assume that damage to economy and society is the reason why lockdowns etc. haven't been used in the past. The Spanish flu killed anywhere between 17 and 100 million people. The standard range is given as 20-50 million. Covid so far has killed 4 million. Maybe the restrictions, in association with other advancements tied to modern society, have actually been useful ? Certainly not without fallout, but useful ?

All global crises, whether they be wars, pandemics, severe economic crashes etc., have significant negative impacts, across the physical, mental, financial and emotional spectrum.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3550 –
I'm thinking when it comes to this particular pandemic nobody can be considered an expert.
It moves and changes in mysterious ways and what is expert advice today may not be as expert 6-12 months down the track.

What I do feel is there are some really poor attempts at blame shifting at both the federal and state level by political parties of both persuasions.
I find that really unproductive.
Covering up your own failings by pointing to mistakes or problems at another level of government is pretty transparent.

And it's not only the blame game at governmental level that's distasteful.
There's a nasty side to it to for some (a few) folks.
'Sucked in Victoria' or 'Sucked in NSW'  appears to be the sentiment when  there is a need for a lockdown.
It's almost like they're barracking for a worse result for the other states.
There's obviously an element of "Well, they weren't real sympathetic to our plight when we were struggling", but I suspect that was a perception rather than a reality."
The fact is that most decent people feel for those struggling in lockdown and it's more a case of 'Thank heavens it's not us this time, but it could very well be next time.'

The strange thing about it is... that all Australian states, no matter what party is in power have handled it much better than the majority of countries.
Different states have had different approaches, they've mostly learned from any mistakes and have managed to reel in numbers that in many places continued to spiral out of control.
We've done really well actually, considering it's a situation unlike any we've experienced in our lifetimes and although such a pandemic has been talked about in the past as a possibility amongst the common folk, it's really been the stuff of movies.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3551 –
Just don't excuse that dumb idiot female in Qld.  She's hated for bloody good reason.  Rant over but waiting to be reignited.  Just a quarter moon in a tent cent town.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3552 –
Quote from: flyboy77 on
So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.

As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.

I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653
You aren’t the only one with kids you contumelious c*#@.

And I don’t have any desire to see mine with long term physical or mental effects following Covid.

Save your snake oil for your own kids.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3553 –
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/delta-coronavirus-variant-symptoms-vaccines-spread/100255804

Further to Fly's post with his link to the medical expert in the USA, you can form your own opinion on the contents of that interview but this ABC news link above does seem to support at least one aspect of that interview in suggesting that while the Delta variant spreads quicker the first data in a study from the UK is showing the mortality rate lower only 0.3 and the symptoms less severe and more in line with a bad cold. Early days as the article suggest and I'm no medical expert but if that trend continues you would have to question our approach in terms of vaccines/lockdowns and if indeed the virus is starting to mutate itself to a safer livable level. Just read that half the recent deaths in England of Covid19 were people who had been vaccinated. Its confusing with conflicting data/opinions to make informed decisions...

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3554 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 on
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/delta-coronavirus-variant-symptoms-vaccines-spread/100255804

Further to Fly's post with his link to the medical expert in the USA, you can form your own opinion on the contents of that interview but this ABC news link above does seem to support at least one aspect of that interview in suggesting that while the Delta variant spreads quicker the first data in a study from the UK is showing the mortality rate lower only 0.3 and the symptoms less severe and more in line with a bad cold. Early days as the article suggest and I'm no medical expert but if that trend continues you would have to question our approach in terms of vaccines/lockdowns and if indeed the virus is starting to mutate itself to a safer livable level. Just read that half the recent deaths in England of Covid19 were people who had been vaccinated. Its confusing with conflicting data/opinions to make informed decisions...


It's precisely for these reasons, i.e we still don't know exactly what covid is or what we're dealing with, or how it will pan out, that it's better to be safe than sorry. Being overly cautious is the right approach IMO.