Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Reply #3062 –
I know what you are saying, but follow the below logic:
IF this virus is the threat it is.
AND we have a lot of people being not compliant with masks, gathering in spite of lockdowns, no check ins at contact tracing etc.
THEN we should have a bunch of cases that are unaccounted for in contact tracing, and a lot more COVID around in the case of a pandemic and an infectious disease (although this can be explained away by people not being tested).
THEREFORE - Its only a matter of time until a phantom case tests positive ADMITTED IN HOSPITAL because they have contracted COVID and got sick.
IF they aren't sick, and they are positive, and they don't spread this to anyone that ends up sick or in hospital is this threat worth worrying about really?
They are all valid observations, that seem to just be ignored for the most part.
The bit I have bolded here is the one that is a real head scratcher to me.
I'm not sure it is quite valid, I think the part missing from that logic is the delay between being exposed and becoming infectious, an infected person is not instantaneously infectious.
The purpose of contract tracing to isolate individuals before they become infectious, this time around that seems to be working not failing as some claim. And we have cases of community transmission traced and confirmed. Unaccounted for cases could well be a failing of contract tracing, or deliberate non-compliance, not necessarily related to the original source or method of transmission.
I see this as a different debate to discussing lockdown. Lockdown is more about compliance and societal behaviour, once cases are identified and isolated if the public was truly complaint we might not need lockdown at all. In that regard purpose of lockdown is to limit the rate of spread so that contract tracing has time to do it's work.
Finally, let's not write off the effects of vaccinations and anti-virals, which all combine to deliver a different R0. As that situation improves, it must surely have an impact diminishing the need for lockdown, I'd suggest the surge in vaccinations is a growing public awareness of that fact. The dissenting anti-vaxx movement if followed would result in the exact opposite.