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Topic: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ??? (Read 5835 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #15
I won't be seeing the game live: I'll be heading back to Melbourne from Bendigo to start a new position at Fairhills High School. I just hope we're doing well enough that I want to see the replay.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #16
I won't be seeing the game live: I'll be heading back to Melbourne from Bendigo to start a new position at Fairhills High School. I just hope we're doing well enough that I want to see the replay.
I might have to edit this with the new restrictions. Who knows what is going to happen?

Thank God the Blues are safe in Queensland!
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #17
I guess one consolation being in QLD is that the dimensions of the Gabba and Metricon are very similar to the G which we play ok at.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #18
I might have to edit this with the new restrictions. Who knows what is going to happen?

Thank God the Blues are safe in Queensland!
Have you seen how Qld has been partying the last two weeks, and they are going to let thousands into the ground.

I'm hoping for the best, but this has bite us on the ar5e written all over it!
The Force Awakens!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #19
Have you seen how Qld has been partying the last two weeks, and they are going to let thousands into the ground.

I'm hoping for the best, but this has bite us on the ar5e written all over it!


Yep, we just might be the first state to get the heavy 2nd wave.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #20
Its inevitable.  You can't hide forever.  This virus was always going to take hold eventually.  All we did was kick the can down the road.  Where I get concerned is that we are doing it again on the back of some very minute numbers.  Onve we were in 100 hospitalisation territory id understand but currently we have all of 30 people admitted.


Thats barely one ward across the state.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #21
Its inevitable.  You can't hide forever.  This virus was always going to take hold eventually.  All we did was kick the can down the road.  Where I get concerned is that we are doing it again on the back of some very minute numbers.  Onve we were in 100 hospitalisation territory id understand but currently we have all of 30 people admitted.


Thats barely one ward across the state.
Firstly, I'm posting this in this thread because we are discussing the risks to opening games to the public, ours being one of them.
 
The growth of COVID-19 can be exponential Thry, the medical specialists know R0 is not yet clearly defined for COVID-19 and sits somewhere well above 1.0. Influenza R0 is typically 1.2 to 1.6, and COVID-19 might be above 2.0.

btw., For those not familiar, when you hear discussions that COVID-19 is 5x more infectious than Flu, you do not need the R0 value to be 5x the Influenza R0 for that to be true. For example growth rates under five cycles of infection;
Influenza (R0 = 1.6) = 1.61.6 = 2.61.6 = 5.01.6 = 111.6 = 48
COVID-19 (R0 = 2.0) = 22 = 42 = 162 = 2562 = 65536

Such a small change in R0 from 1.6 to 2.0 and the thing is out of control. You can understand why the medical specialists are so edgy about letting the reigns loose, keeping in mind they do not know what R0 really is but from the history of cases so far R0 for COVID-19 is higher than R0 for Influenza.

Now keep in mind, these cycles seem to be taking at least 14 days, maybe longer to surface, five cycles is almost two months and if we were out of lock down the result could be catastrophic for hospitals in a time frame impossible for them to deal with.

Maybe the 14 days is not a useful figure for the number of days an infection takes to get hold, it looks like the real world figure could 21 to 28 days. In some respect they won't bother looking for latency beyond 14 days because that makes all sorts of things untenable, contact tracing for example becomes almost impossible beyond about 14 days, so instead they'll look to further refine R0 to get some idea of rates. Finding a better R0 is neither a cure or a prophylactic, but it tells them how long and aggressive they need to be in the planning.

Now what does all this mean for AFL. It means it's a completely unacceptable risk to allow patrons into games. Because if we get a brace of infections to players as a result of public exposure the season is over for everybody. There will be no way to differentiate those potentially infected from those exposed but not infected within the 14 day window, the 14 days is completely arbitrary and has more to do with what the public will accept as an isolation period rather than a valid quarantine period.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #22
Firstly, I'm posting this in this thread because we are discussing the risks to opening games to the public, ours being one of them.
 
The growth of COVID-19 can be exponential Thry, the medical specialists know R0 is not yet clearly defined for COVID-19 and sits somewhere well above 1.0. Influenza R0 is typically 1.2 to 1.6, and COVID-19 might be above 2.0.

btw., For those not familiar, when you hear discussions that COVID-19 is 5x more infectious than Flu, you do not need the R0 value to be 5x the Influenza R0 for that to be true. For example growth rates under five cycles of infection;
Influenza (R0 = 1.6) = 1.61.6 = 2.61.6 = 5.01.6 = 111.6 = 48
COVID-19 (R0 = 2.0) = 22 = 42 = 162 = 2562 = 65536

Such a small change in R0 from 1.6 to 2.0 and the thing is out of control. You can understand why the medical specialists are so edgy about letting the reigns loose, keeping in mind they do not know what R0 really is but from the history of cases so far R0 for COVID-19 is higher than R0 for Influenza.

Now keep in mind, these cycles seem to be taking at least 14 days, maybe longer to surface, five cycles is almost two months and if we were out of lock down the result could be catastrophic for hospitals in a time frame impossible for them to deal with.

Maybe the 14 days is not a useful figure for the number of days an infection takes to get hold, it looks like the real world figure could 21 to 28 days. In some respect they won't bother looking for latency beyond 14 days because that makes all sorts of things untenable, contact tracing for example becomes almost impossible beyond about 14 days, so instead they'll look to further refine R0 to get some idea of rates. Finding a better R0 is neither a cure or a prophylactic, but it tells them how long and aggressive they need to be in the planning.

Now what does all this mean for AFL. It means it's a completely unacceptable risk to allow patrons into games. Because if we get a brace of infections to players as a result of public exposure the season is over for everybody. There will be no way to differentiate those potentially infected from those exposed but not infected within the 14 day window, the 14 days is completely arbitrary and has more to do with what the public will accept as an isolation period rather than a valid quarantine period.

Thank you, Spotted One. Makes you realise, in one respect, just what a diabolical powder keg the orange weasel has lit in the US with his breathtaking ignorance.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #23
Thank you, Spotted One. Makes you realise, in one respect, just what a diabolical powder keg the orange weasel has lit in the US with his breathtaking ignorance.
Just an FYI Baggers.

What I've written above is a gross simplification, the real infection rate is usually a complex calculation with many terms that relate to latency, transmission, networking, longevity, etc., etc..

It's also important to note that these figures are for infections in the wild, the reported R0 doesn't apply to a hospital with everyone using PPE and having wards in isolation, so it's more relevant to how a infection might transmit at a crowded sporting event than in day to day living under restrictions. The restrictions change the R0, it is a feedback loop, which is something the cynics seem to conveniently forget.

The truth sits somewhere between a Fibonacci sequence(2,4,8,16,32,64,128.....) and a growth curve like ex (2.7, 7.4, 20, 54, 148, 408, 1096,.......). The important point to remember is that the growth is exponential based on a complex network of connectivity and intervals, so it's a curve like acceleration under gravity, not a straight line.

You'll get over simplification in the media, things like people trying to tell you R0 means one person infects 2, the Fibonacci explanation, but that is not the real world scenario, they are just doing there best to make it understandable and manageable. But it's also a simple model scientists use to understand the behaviour, using numbers they can adjust to get a curve to fit the apparent circumstances. Thry will tell you from his IT background that network complexity doesn't grow by a Fibonacci sequence, modelling growth is far more complex.

When you hear the medical experts talking about the potential for 3000 cases a day, you know the infection rate is part of an exponential growth curve.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #24
Who are we playing again?
It seems to have been lost somewhere ...
Live Long and Prosper!


Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #26
All I'd like to see are player black armbands (double) in honour of a #17 champion and a fine man

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #27
Firstly, I'm posting this in this thread because we are discussing the risks to opening games to the public, ours being one of them.
 
The growth of COVID-19 can be exponential Thry, the medical specialists know R0 is not yet clearly defined for COVID-19 and sits somewhere well above 1.0. Influenza R0 is typically 1.2 to 1.6, and COVID-19 might be above 2.0.

btw., For those not familiar, when you hear discussions that COVID-19 is 5x more infectious than Flu, you do not need the R0 value to be 5x the Influenza R0 for that to be true. For example growth rates under five cycles of infection;
Influenza (R0 = 1.6) = 1.61.6 = 2.61.6 = 5.01.6 = 111.6 = 48
COVID-19 (R0 = 2.0) = 22 = 42 = 162 = 2562 = 65536

Such a small change in R0 from 1.6 to 2.0 and the thing is out of control. You can understand why the medical specialists are so edgy about letting the reigns loose, keeping in mind they do not know what R0 really is but from the history of cases so far R0 for COVID-19 is higher than R0 for Influenza.

Now keep in mind, these cycles seem to be taking at least 14 days, maybe longer to surface, five cycles is almost two months and if we were out of lock down the result could be catastrophic for hospitals in a time frame impossible for them to deal with.

Maybe the 14 days is not a useful figure for the number of days an infection takes to get hold, it looks like the real world figure could 21 to 28 days. In some respect they won't bother looking for latency beyond 14 days because that makes all sorts of things untenable, contact tracing for example becomes almost impossible beyond about 14 days, so instead they'll look to further refine R0 to get some idea of rates. Finding a better R0 is neither a cure or a prophylactic, but it tells them how long and aggressive they need to be in the planning.

Now what does all this mean for AFL. It means it's a completely unacceptable risk to allow patrons into games. Because if we get a brace of infections to players as a result of public exposure the season is over for everybody. There will be no way to differentiate those potentially infected from those exposed but not infected within the 14 day window, the 14 days is completely arbitrary and has more to do with what the public will accept as an isolation period rather than a valid quarantine period.

Oops daily cases fell to 130 odd - so much for exponential growth.  C:-)

Funny how all the 'expert' modelling has been so wildly wrong....from the get go.

Why?

Because the experts (Bill Gates? ROFL):

1. over estimated the R0 wildly.
2. underestimated the population that already been infected (it was clearly out and about in many countries, likely here too, well before the experts thought)
3. underestimated the existing immunity in the population.

Keep taking pot shots LP....

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/?fbclid=IwAR2XpRYPrGvkU6mNyw37PDRDKBnAt6WafqR7d7ZM-yihqWWLLHqj_n2TFHg
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #28
Oops daily cases fell to 130 odd - so much for exponential growth.  C:-)
Already addressed in my post, everybody who reads my posts will see that your comments are "wildy" inaccurate. ;)

3. underestimated the existing immunity in the population.
There is no existing community immunity, that is fake news.

The science reports dishearteningly that antibodies only appear to persist in recovered patients for a little as 2 months, greatly diminishing the chance of ever finding a long term vaccine. It's not like measles or chicken pox.

We shouldn't be surprised, the "Fakies" keep referring to the COVID-19 as the Flu. But the "Fakies" have missed the point because most people never get the Flu as it's infection rate is so low by comparison to a common cold or COVID-19.

COVID-19 has an infection rate similar to the common cold, and lots of people get a cold every season and tell people they have "got the Flu", I hope they never get the Flu because they won't call a cold the Flu ever again, and they should hope like hell they never get COVID-19.

Perhaps you should move to Sweden and give them some of your COVID-19 advice, except it seems they already took it! 10 Million people, 5,500 deaths!
The Force Awakens!

Re: Pre game preamble: AFL 2020 Rd 6: Carlton vs ???

Reply #29
Can we please stop hijacking threads with Covid stuff please.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time