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Messages - Sub-Zero

3
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations
There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?
Cincotta could stay in the team, even with Williams back in and no injuries there. If he were to make way, who plays in the pocket while others run off more on the flanks? Perhaps Newman, but he had a career-best year there.
Yeah, maybe an improved Kemp, even Marchbank or Gov on a small. But they're better as aerial interceptors. Cowan as an option with a good pre-season and escaping the second-year "blues". Time will tell.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations
A full year with Walsh in the side will do absolute wonders for us. Will do so for a bashed up Cripps as well. Add Cerra and rotations from Hewett, Kennedy, Fogarty, Cuningham, E. Hollands and/or even Carroll, you can't stop them all.
How will Williams go next year? How much can he improve us if he gets back to full fitness? Lots of depth on the HB line. Lots of depth there.
TDK looks ready to step up another notch again. Pittonet or Silvagni will be there with him. O'Keeffe at least another year away, but we have ruck options.
Some fresh faces introduced in Kemp and Motlop, Binns could play lots of games. Who else could there be?
Acres came in as an experienced player and did his deed. Can Fantasia do the same? Hopefully he can, he is an experienced player in that area of the ground, where we only really have Martin, though he is a more general forward.
Can Young come back in to cement his spot? He's an option at least if Weitering misses games. Kemp, McGovern, Marchbank and to an extent, Cincotta for aerial intercepts, the first three, though not necessarily desirable but if need be, as a second key tall partner option.
The biggest need next year if we're to go all the way, is our two key forwards to stay fit. Not much else there. What can we do if one or jeepers, both go down? That could royally screw us next year. Options would be to swing McGovern down there, would definitely prefer him over Kemp, let Kemp settle into his role and the level first. JSOS as an smaller size key forward. de Koning can still improve his craft as well, he showed he can kick them as an emergency resting second key forward against Melbourne.
If Martin and Fantasia can stay fit, along with the two key talls, Motlop continues to improve, there's five dangerous forwards. This is where the difference to reaching a flag could rest at.
This year was a wonderful ride, makes up for last year and more than that. Now is the time to at least repeat it and with an optimistic view, go further. Yes, the expectations will be on here. Let's end this long-suffering pain again.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Jim Park Analysis 2023
A Brownlow medallist in waiting is Walsh. Congratulations and in particular for someone who missed about ten games or so, in our best season in a generation.
To the podium places in C. Curnow and Cerra, career-best years. Well-deserved spots there. Newman, unlucky to miss out, same same.
To everyone else here and maybe though unlikely not, thanks for your contributions in a wonderful year for the team.
Crashlander, I'll be the grammar police here and say you need to swap Jordan Boyd's name around to be written down like everyone else's. Last name first. As they do with the East Asian names.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications
Reckon tall Durds is like that fire extinguisher you have at home or work you walk past everyday and hope you never have to use....for me he is there to replace one player only in the main and thats Jacob Weitering.
You're probably right Elwood, in any case it's still very important, no matter what the form of him or Young, to have these guys on the list, for the purpose that was badly missing for a lot of the year and what exposed us against Brisbane. We will be too far into the draft to get a developing tall KPD imo, hence tall Durdin is on our list as an insurance policy.

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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications
Yep.
I see that tall Durds has been given another contract and was an emergency for one of our finals... reckon he and Young will be competing for the same spot during pre season training.
Hopefully one or even both stand up and be noticed. I made mention of Motlop and Fogarty having disappointing games, but we were killed in the clearances and this was a big reason why they got back into the game, the two lacked opportunities to impact. Obviously Daniher and Hipwood were given too many opportunities for our gun Weitering to deal with. 
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick your best 22 - PART 7 - End of season
This is the end of year best 22, it's subject to change next season. I really like Cincotta and it was very hard for me to omit him. He played how many games in a row? He's our best option on smaller defenders with his speed and medium height imo.
In fact Cincotta in for Boyd. The latter played well against Brisbane, has very good speed and disposal by foot, but needs to be more consistent and do it more in games. He does have something, needs to be more fitter to impact more. But Cincotta has those qualities and a much better defensive game. He just dropped off later, probably one of the many who were tired and perhaps even sore too.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2023: A review
Another buzz word these days is connection or connectivity and often its implied that this refers to connection between lines (ie Def - Mids - Fwds). I often see a lack of connectivity between our fwds (ie talls - smalls). I feel lie they need to work on their structures and patterns as sometimes it looks bit haphazard. Thats what I reckon for what its worth.
Martin, Motlop and Owies are the types who want the ball to come to them, appear to be more your flankers, not your opportune roving types off the pack. They're okay at it, but it's not their main craft. Fogarty is excellent at pressure, but not on the scoreboard. One, or two players who wait for the ball to spill and get there first, rather than be a small-medium marking type, is what we need.
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick your best 22 - PART 7 - End of season
This is the end of year best 22, it's subject to change next season. I really like Cincotta and it was very hard for me to omit him. He played how many games in a row? He's our best option on smaller defenders with his speed and medium height imo.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2023: A review
It's been mentioned that we were left with too much to do too late. That's spot on. Tiredness played its part much later, but our fight cannot be faulted. We went for more shorter passes and with success quite well generally speaking, but it can't be maintained all game. The way we long bomb, as mentioned, is also correct. More 40-45m kicks or in front of the players would be the better option, as well as more consistency and danger from our smaller forwards, with all due respect to them. In saying the part about the bombs, Newman, Docherty and Saad have big kicks on them. That's not a particular concern on my behalf really. Just some more from the smaller forwards, in particular, in positions to crumb from Curnow and Harry (the former goes alright in that department).
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications
Boyd and Harry were fresh and it showed.
Cincotta and 18 others were off their feet and it showed.
Good point. Motlop went missing, as did Fogarty. The game was lost from the second quarter onwards when they got on top around the middle and won the clearances. It must be said and many of us would've noticed this for a while, but we're actually too short, in defence! Young's indifferent season has meant McGovern has played as an undersized KPD. When Kemp was omitted, we were even more one down in a tall down there (of course Kemp isn't really a KPD, but he's more of a third tall than Boyd, not that his selection can be faulted).Their own twin talls in Daniher and Hipwood were given treats by their players.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications
Cuningham was poor over about the last three-four matches. Probably rust on his behalf, even then, that's another factor as to why he should have been dropped.
McKay played very well, he's not to be faulted for trying hard. That selection certainly wasn't a mistake. de Koning and Pittonet had their moments in the finals series to say the least. Curnow, despite his generally woeful finals series, wasn't going to be dropped either.
As stated, JSOS was nowhere near ready to play. The hill was too big a climb to reach against a much more freshened and finals-hardened team.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications
Imagine if we had gone with one ruckman.  It doesn't matter which one because McInerney would have given either one a touch up.  Playing two rucks curbed his influence.  Playing one ruckman is virtually conceding the ruck contests, allowing McInerney to do as he likes around the ground, and giving Brisbane's midfielders a boost.

Playing one ruckman would mean rucking McKay, a role he hates and is poor at.  It also means taking McKay, our only truly competitive tall forward on the day, away from the forward line.  That would leave Charlie being double-teamed by Andrews and Gardiner ... or we could have had a cooked ruckman "resting" in the forward lne.  That would work well - not, particularly if it was Pitto.  Meanwhile, Daniher would be enjoying little opposition when he gives McInerney a breather and comes up against Harry.

So, we concede an advantage in the ruck and weaken our forward line to bring in a player to add some zip.  Who would that be?  Cuningham finished the season as if he'd had no pre-season.  Fisher did OK when brought back as a loose man in defence but forgot about the defensive part of the role.  Paddy Dow gets a few clearances but doesn't do much else.  Binns is worth considering but it would be tough to debut in a prelim.  Then there's O'Brien and Honey ... wait!

Another option is to bring in Jack Silvagni, despite his lack of match fitness.  He'd provide more of a contest than Harry and maybe get the odd clearance but he certainly wouldn't have the Big O and Daniher quaking in their boots  ...  and the first ruck would still have to do the bulk of the work against a dominant opponent.  The Silvagni as a ruck option should be sealed and labelled "for emergency use only".

I would have played Kemp in place of Cincotta.  Yes, they have different roles but Kemp is quick and agile enough to perform Cincotta's role.  The latter's form dropped off as the season progressed. That's perfectly understandable, but doesn't help when the opposition is running away from him.  Marchbank was one of our better players on the day and I don't understand the criticism of his selection.  It's a bit like the "supporters" who continually criticised Plowman and who were called out by Weitering in his season review.

Jordan Boyd did his job on the day too and his inclusion was a logical response to Brisbane's forward structure.

We didn't lose the game at the selection table, we lost it in our slump when we gave up the chance of home finals.
A very hard post to fault, except for your point on people questioning Marchbank's spot in the team. He played well in any case and Kemp has some more to come, despite his promise. But Marchbank was very poor in the two finals prior. I like Cincotta too, appears to be playing a defensive role on smaller players, would be nice to release him more, but lots of options there with Saad, Newman, Doc and Boyd to name a few.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick your best 22 - PART 7 - End of season
I can comprehend there was a lot of anti-ruck duo discussion on this site, and this survey shows 85% picked a ruck duo, with associated assertions of players being overpaid while underperforming.

So it seems like the noise was coming from a very very noisy minority.
I have not been one of those LP, except for one match, the last match of the year, when Pitto looked like he needed a rest, looked sore and indeed he did miss that dead-rubber match in any case.