Carlton Supporters Club

I wrote an essay about voting patterns almost 50 years ago.  At that time, 80% of people who identified as blue collar voted Labor and 80% of people who identified as white collar voted Liberal.

A hell of a lot has changed since then; blue collar and white collar are largely redundant categories, conspiracy theories are rife, faith/trust in politicians is at an all time low, people are fearful and genuinely angry at the failure to act on climate change, there’s a proliferation of political parties, rich fat blokes pour millions into campaigns intended to make them richer, social media is an electioneering tool, younger folk are more informed and are concerned about their future, older folk are well informed and are concerned about their children’s and grandchildren’s future, we’re in the middle of a pandemic, half the country is flooded - the other half is in drought, Russia has invaded Ukraine, North Korea is firing missiles, the Chinese Communist Party is flexing its muscles, self-funded retirees are ignored by policy makers, young folk can’t afford to buy a house, etc, etc.

Voters are less predictable than they’ve ever been. 

Inflation travelling at 5.1% while many have had wage freeze during the covid period in the last two years will play some small influence on voting opinions. Fuel prices going through the roof. Even with excise reductions of 22 cents per litre. Vaccine mandates to stay employed. Serious lockdowns that have closed many small businesses down. Potentially losing the homes that keep a roof over the heads of the children in a family. Probably not the best last few years to be in government as state or federal leaders. I wouldn’t feel confident if I was the prime minister at the moment or the state leader Dan Andrews come years end. Tough gig they had over the last few years. Unfortunately one thinks he is a dictator that owns the world and does what ever suits his own agenda best. Never ever get my vote there. The other thinks, nothing is his responsibility or his job. No vote from me there either. Not form the same party. Then we look at the other sides. Why are my options limited between “no thanks and get the f@#k away from here”? Independent members don’t offer the most unless you do enough research. Who will they back depending on perks offered to them to swing votes on major issues or policies? Passing bills, and other issues? Is it a wonder that voting in an election is one of the hardest thing people can deal with. Especially because they have limited knowledge of what meets their needs first. Then they have limited knowledge of whom they need to select in any lower or upper house seat. Then trust plays a key factor. Will they deliver or have they sold me a story I wanted to hear. Where do the informal votes go? Why do we use pencils which are erasable when compared to permanent biro pens? You can’t sign formal documents with a pencil. Is it any wonder the majority of people don’t know who to vote for? Does it look like the system of voting is potentially compromised? Can people trust what they hear from potential leaders? The majority votes come from uneducated people. People which have limited knowledge of how the political leaders run budgets and run the states and the country. Maybe this is something they need to address. Politics in the educational system. It is limited. I can say it as a fact. I can only judge by what I see and hear. Bagging the opponent. Not selling policies, but selling stories about how the opposition fails to deliver what the constituents need. Constituents is a funny thing. That is what we are. Constituents is our label. Do your best to vote for what you need tomorrow. Not today. Tomorrow. Today is gone by tomorrow. My early prediction is Scomo is gone. My next prediction is that Andrews is gone in the next state election. Neither has done a great job. Neither will get my vote. Don’t vote based on my opinion. Select your own. Toss of the coin is popular. Not suggesting this is best option. Not at all. Remember that informal or silly votes will go where you least expect them to go. Good luck to us all.

Guys, I tend not to make too many claims without some fact checks.

Food for thought as to where my thought process came from:

https://nationalseniors.com.au/news/featured-news/power-of-the-seniors-vote

The Silent Generation, those people born before 1946, number close to 1.4 million.

Only a small minority were educated to year 11 standard, many leaving between years 8 and 10, with possibly 3 percent going to university.  Their formative years were spent in a society that did not welcome criticism of authority, particularly governments.

Quite a number  have had neither the means nor the motivation to engage meaningfully in today's society and have retreated to the comfort of their conservative values.

This is the group I refer to as rusted on LNP voters.

Thry
Queensland is probably the last state to use as a snapshot of the rest of Australia.

The seniors vote in Queensland during the last state election was driven by two factors.
Firstly the handling of the pandemic.
Despite the rest of Australia seeing her as a heartless bitch, to older Queenslanders Annastacia was the one who kept us pretty safe.
While other parts suffered long lockdowns we went about life 'comparatively' much less affected.

Secondly, the alternative LNP was unable to present themselves as an opposition with any real advantages for older folks. They were pretty ineffective in championing the case for change.

I'm very much in the middle of the spectrum when it comes to voting.
As an older 'Queenslander' (not really I just live here ) I had no hesitation in voting Labor in the State election.
Will I vote the same on Saturday?
Not sure, especially now I hear a Numbat might be running.

I'll have a guess at the result, Libs to lose 7-8 seats and lose Government.

I'm thinking it'll be knife edge, and even then, with so many postals, a result could well remain unclear for some time. 

Just an example Lods.  its something i have heard over the years a few times.

Older voters tend to go Labor.  This may have even been a historic truth dating back to when superannuation became a thing, and the pension was talked about being abolished.

We have been told for the last couple of years that anecdotal evidence isnt evidence, and I am shocked to discover (not really) that people here are using anecdotal accounts as evidence.

All it really says is what sort of classes we belong to and whom we associate with. 

The loudest voices we hear are the minorities out there.  Most people keep their opinions to themselves, and a landslide Labor victory despite how much I agree with Mantis comments above purely because they took the approach of protection is better than cure first.

I've always heard the opposite Thry
Older voters are more conservative.

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study

But it's not a one size fits all.