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Poll

At the 2022 Federal Election which party will receive your first preference?

LNP
[ 7 ] (26.9%)
ALP
[ 8 ] (30.8%)
Greens
[ 2 ] (7.7%)
One Nation
[ 0 ] (0%)
United Australia Party
[ 3 ] (11.5%)
Other
[ 2 ] (7.7%)
None of the Above
[ 4 ] (15.4%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Topic: Election 2022 (Poll added) (Read 23306 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #255
Will the Liberals lurch to the left or the right? It'll be an interesting watch. But it's pretty obvious which way Sky News / Murdoch wants them to go:

In shock and anger over Liberal defeat, Sky News commentators urge party to shift right, The Guardian.

Quote from: Andrew Bolt
“Scott Morrison’s pathetic Liberals got smashed by telling the world they were the Guilty Party,” Bolt wrote. “Guilty on the ‘climate emergency’. Guilty of being mean to women. Guilty on ‘reconciliation’.

“Who’d vote for such a mewling pack of self-haters with so little self-respect that they won’t even sack a party traitor like Malcolm Turnbull? Thank God this election wipe-out has taken out many of their worst grovellers.

“Please, Peter Dutton, take over, and make the Liberals stop apologising for not being more like Labor. Let the Liberals be Liberals again. But still I see some of the more clueless Liberal survivors crawl from the wreckage and whimper that they’ve got to swing even more to the Left.”

The other interesting thing will be how the Anti-Dan campaign will fare in November. Clearly, the Federal Liberals miscued by taking potshots at the Andrews Govt over the pandemic response:

Quote
“The Liberal party thought that they were having a potshot at the Labor party, but … they were having a go at Victorians,” Tam, a voter in Higgins, told Guardian Australia.

“I took it personally. It has definitely swayed my vote.”

Voters we spoke to in the three electorates were outraged by the constant negative comparisons between Victoria and NSW, the lack of financial support after jobkeeper wrapped up but lockdowns dragged on, and most notably, the sluggish vaccination rollout.

This was on top of several other issues such as climate change, integrity, the treatment of women in parliament and other workplaces, and growing inequality.

But Liberal strategists were confident there was another story playing out in the outer suburbs of Melbourne.

They believed there was an “anti-Dan” sentiment and attempted to capitalise on it, issuing how-to-vote cards urging voters to “send Daniel Andrews a message”. An ad campaign, targeting voters in Corangamite and McEwen, attempted to paint Albanese as Andrews’s puppet.

The result? The seats of Corangamite and Dunkley are marginal no more, with a 7.7% and 4.2% swing to Labor MPs Libby Coker and Peta Murphy respectively at the time of writing.

In McEwen, there was a small swing towards the Liberal party but Labor’s Rob Mitchell retained the seat comfortably. Strategists were predicting Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and One Nation could secure up to 20% of the vote, but instead it was the Greens that came in third, with more than 14% of first preference votes – a 4.6% swing in a seat the party put little resources into.

In nearby Hawke, a new seat, there was a 2.8% swing to the Liberal party but Labor’s Sam Rae will retain it with more than 57% of the two-party preferred vote. Again, it was the Greens, not UAP or One Nation, that came in third.

In Melbourne’s east, the state’s most marginal electorate was easily won off Liberal MP Gladys Liu by Labor’s Carina Garland, while in neighbouring Deakin, Michael Sukkar remains in danger of losing his seat.

In the previously safe Liberal seat of Aston, embattled cabinet minister Alan Tudge suffered a 7.4% swing against him, and in Menzies, another heartland electorate named after the party’s founder, candidate Keith Wolahan had a narrow lead on his Labor opponent.

Asked to explain the party’s drubbing in a state once described as the jewel in the Liberal crown, Senator Jane Hume conceded: “We thought there would be a bigger Dan Andrews effect in Victoria and there hasn’t [been], which I find disappointing.”
“We have had such negative feedback about those harsh lockdowns in Victoria, and we thought that may play out in those outer suburban areas. Clearly, they haven’t,” she told Nine.

Former Labor campaign strategist turned pollster Kos Samaras said the research his firm RedBridge conducted ahead of the election found “no evidence” to suggest a dislike of Andrews would translate to votes for the Liberals.

“The Libs drove their buses out to safe Labor seats hunting for votes and left their homes burning. They’ve been absolutely decimated,” he says.

“It’s a complete repeat of the 2018 state election.”

‘They were having a go at Victorians’: how the Liberals miscalculated the ‘anti-Dan’ election strategy, The Guardian.

The article notes Victorian State Liberals are still convinced there's an anti-Dan factor out there, but if they're wrong then they'll waste a lot of their efforts.

If we look at the results in Victoria and WA, states in which Labor Premiers implemented harsh restrictions with a view to keeping Covid at bay, Labor was rewarded. Maybe that means that the overwhelming majority of voters respect governments which make hard decisions: the opposite of do-nothing governments. Listening to an obnoxiously loud minority which prefers that Govts do nothing is like listening to the Siren song and crashing one's ship into the rocks.

The Victorian opposition would do better to forget about running a review of pandemic management. It's not as though they have to harp on about it anyway as those who were outraged by it will remain so and presumably they'll vote against Dan. Instead, they should focus on issues such as Ambulance response time and the like. But Labor has a pretty decent argument there. The ALP can argue that Morrison's Liberal Govt had starved Victoria of resources in the hope it could foment an uprising against the ALP. Albo doesn't need to replicate Morrison's obvious shift of resources to his own party's States: all he has to do is get rid of Morrison's rorting and Victoria will benefit greatly from increases in funding. Maybe Victorian voters won't be quite as optimistic that balance will be restored if it elects right-wing wingnuts led by Guy, conditioned as they are by Morrison to expect political reprisals.  

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #256
When do we all get our 5% pay increase?
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #257
That's the funny thing: the government of the day doesn't set minimum wage rises. Just as the Governor of the Reserve Bank determines interest rises independently of the Government, the Fair Work Commission determines what rise, if any, there should be in the minimum wage. The Federal Govt presumably makes its views known but others express their views as well. And the determination of the Fair Work Commission doesn't bind employers who are paying over the minimum wage although there's an expectation there'll be a flow on.

When I heard Albo's comments and Morrison teeing off on them, I initially feared it was a gaffe but then I felt it would rebound on Morrison because essentially he was saying it should be up to workers to fight inflation by accepting a real wage cut. It was pretty clear Morrison realised he'd fallen into a trap as he quickly tried to backtrack on his attack, saying he supported a rise in wages.

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #258
When do we all get our 5% pay increase?
Lets go MBB, Ill make the placards
"Whata we want? 5%. When do wannit? Now!!!!"
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #259
When do we all get our 5% pay increase?

It’s up to the Fair Work Commission and then only for folk on the minimum wage.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #260
George Megalogenis made an interesting observation on Sunday morning; our parliament now looks more like Australia.

There’s still a way to go but I think that’s a good sign for our nation’s future.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #261
It’s up to the Fair Work Commission and then only for folk on the minimum wage.

I thought I heard Albo say no one should go backwards.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #262
I thought I heard Albo say no one should go backwards.

He probably did but the Fair Work Commission only determines the minimum wage.  Wages growth for other workers will depend on economic policy and productivity, as well as enterprise bargaining.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

 

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #263
I know he said wage growth at the bottom, but there are two ways to achieve that.

1.  Lift the minimum wage (this is an election promise and will impact none of us that earn a decent wicket, even as hyperinflation sets in).

2.  Make the cost of living cheaper.  This is not going to happen.

Which means the exact people who are going to wear the burden are those of us, who are not truly well off, but earn a pretty good crust.

The end of the middle class is upon us and we arrived here through no fault of any of our recent governments or policies.  We are going to have the recession that we have been able to stave off for the last 20 years, and I expect it to be quite horrific in the next couple of years.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #264
Around 40% of folk, 20% directly and 20 indirectly are affected by the Fair Work commissions once a year ruling.
For those who have worked in Private enterprise they would know that contracts are reset around July 1st each year as rule of thumb.
My tip is Parliament will be recalled early to table a lot of Labors new promised legislation, given the amount of newbie cross benchers it may take them a bit of time to wade through the detail given they won't have the resources like the major parties and an early start will help offset those delays.
Labor should have the numbers in the house of reps and also with the Greens help and Jacqui Lambie be able to push most of their stuff through.
Our old friend Pauline looks she might hang onto her Senate seat..just.

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #265
I know he said wage growth at the bottom, but there are two ways to achieve that.

1.  Lift the minimum wage (this is an election promise and will impact none of us that earn a decent wicket, even as hyperinflation sets in).

2.  Make the cost of living cheaper.  This is not going to happen.

Which means the exact people who are going to wear the burden are those of us, who are not truly well off, but earn a pretty good crust.

The end of the middle class is upon us and we arrived here through no fault of any of our recent governments or policies.  We are going to have the recession that we have been able to stave off for the last 20 years, and I expect it to be quite horrific in the next couple of years.

Albanese said the morning that there will be no cuts to the public service.  Wonder why?

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #266
I know he said wage growth at the bottom, but there are two ways to achieve that.

1.  Lift the minimum wage (this is an election promise and will impact none of us that earn a decent wicket, even as hyperinflation sets in).

2.  Make the cost of living cheaper.  This is not going to happen.

Which means the exact people who are going to wear the burden are those of us, who are not truly well off, but earn a pretty good crust.

The end of the middle class is upon us and we arrived here through no fault of any of our recent governments or policies.  We are going to have the recession that we have been able to stave off for the last 20 years, and I expect it to be quite horrific in the next couple of years.


Wages growth means higher inflation which means higher interest rates, that is the reality. Inflation is 8.5% in the USA which will flow on down here, we won't be as bad but any wages growth will be gobbled up.
Banks have to play ball as well which is doubtful imho, some are offering 2.9 % on term deposits already so mortgage rates are going up. Going to be a lot of defaults and houses for sale by years end...

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #267
Wages growth means higher inflation which means higher interest rates, that is the reality. Inflation is 8.5% in the USA which will flow on down here, we won't be as bad but any wages growth will be gobbled up.
Banks have to play ball as well which is doubtful imho, some are offering 2.9 % on term deposits already so mortgage rates are going up. Going to be a lot of defaults and houses for sale by years end...

Not according to a raft of economists speaking in the lead up to the election EB.

Wages growth linked to productivity isn’t inflationary.  The challenge for the new government will be to develop the framework for that to happen.  The first step would be to seek advice from beyond Treasury … but I’m not sure they’re that courageous/innovative. 🤔


“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #268
Not according to a raft of economists speaking in the lead up to the election EB.

Wages growth linked to productivity isn’t inflationary.  The challenge for the new government will be to develop the framework for that to happen.  The first step would be to seek advice from beyond Treasury … but I’m not sure they’re that courageous/innovative. 🤔



DJ,  I'll go with the man who sets the cash rate and thats Philip Lowe,inflation tipped at 6% by years end and he expects wages growth to lag prices for a while yet, his expectation is around 3% wages growth.
Albo has promised 5% wages increases , he will need a magical framework to make that happen in the next 12 months Imho, gentleman Jim Chalmers also will need to help him by keeping the fuel excise cut and from what I read he didnt want to commit to that...Albo might get some help if the Russia/Ukraine conflict is resolved and China can get out of lockdown and Penny Wong can smooth the waters but with less stimulus in the market I dont see consumption increasing with interest rates going up and GDP being affected. A lot of moving parts to sync up for decent wages growth IMO and if Albo/Chalmers pull it off then they might have the job for a while....

Re: Election 2022 (Poll added)

Reply #269
DJ,  I'll go with the man who sets the cash rate and thats Philip Lowe,inflation tipped at 6% by years end and he expects wages growth to lag prices for a while yet, his expectation is around 3% wages growth.
Albo has promised 5% wages increases , he will need a magical framework to make that happen in the next 12 months Imho, gentleman Jim Chalmers also will need to help him by keeping the fuel excise cut and from what I read he didnt want to commit to that...Albo might get some help if the Russia/Ukraine conflict is resolved and China can get out of lockdown and Penny Wong can smooth the waters but with less stimulus in the market I dont see consumption increasing with interest rates going up and GDP being affected. A lot of moving parts to sync up for decent wages growth IMO and if Albo/Chalmers pull it off then they might have the job for a while....

Albo's commitment is that Labor would support a 5.1% pay rise for the 2% of Australians earning the minimum wage of $20.33 an hour if the Fair Work Commission determined that such a pay rise was appropriate.

There's a good discussion of why/how pay rises aren't inflationary here:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/minimum-wage-prices-inflation-spiral-interest-rates/101060028

Basically, there's a lot of fat in the system that could be redistributed.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball