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Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #45
As a first year player you are generally told just to go out and have fun. You get exposed to the footballing landscape at the highest level. You are pumped full of confidence and everything is new and exciting. You are fully fit, full of confidence.

As a second year player, you are pigeon holed a bit more. You are critiqued a bit more. Your confidence takes a hit. You may be playing with niggles that you wouldn't have been picked to play with the year before.

Now clearly this is a generalisation and there is no definite rule that makes it so.

But there are legitimate reasons that make the second year blues more likely than unlikely.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #46
There's probably a fair bit of generalisation going on here. ;)

Some players will have better seasons in their second years.
Some players will have 'not so good' seasons.

We all have views on this...
I personally don't think it would be close to a majority experiencing those second year 'downers'

I reckon if you took the top 20 players in this year's Brownlow and did both a statistical analysis and one based on observation at the time, the majority would have had better second years.
But that's also just a guess.
It has to be both statistics and reporting/ observation because statistics only ever tell you half a story and a forward who becomes a defender, or a midfielder who plays more forward, may actually drop in raw figures.
So assigned roles become a factor.

And of course all that assumes injury is not also a factor, because that can impact.
In fact injury for young players it is probably more of a reason for a drop off in form, given these guys are experiencing a pressure they haven't been exposed to in their junior football

Speculating on how a player like Hollands will go Year 2 is again just a guess (lot of guessing going on here)
His brother had a poorer second year than first.
But he's not his brother.
And individuals will perform differently, so there's no blanket rule.

The bottom line in all this is... if around half our side have better 2024s than 2023, and half of the rest stay the same we'll be a better side even if there is a drop in  form for some.
If a dozen of our players drop off, we could be in strife. :(





Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #47
Expectation: Deep into 2024 finals series. Strong improvement from all younger players (-28yrs) and maintaining of high level from senior players.

Predictions: Nil... lost my crystal ball and Tarot cards.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

 

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #48
Just came third so top two should be the expectation and guarantee home finals.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #49
There's probably a fair bit of generalisation going on here. ;)

Some players will have better seasons in their second years.
Some players will have 'not so good' seasons.

We all have views on this...
I personally don't think it would be close to a majority experiencing those second year 'downers'

I reckon if you took the top 20 players in this year's Brownlow and did both a statistical analysis and one based on observation at the time, the majority would have had better second years.
But that's also just a guess.
It has to be both statistics and reporting/ observation because statistics only ever tell you half a story and a forward who becomes a defender, or a midfielder who plays more forward, may actually drop in raw figures.
So assigned roles become a factor.

And of course all that assumes injury is not also a factor, because that can impact.
In fact injury for young players it is probably more of a reason for a drop off in form, given these guys are experiencing a pressure they haven't been exposed to in their junior football

Speculating on how a player like Hollands will go Year 2 is again just a guess (lot of guessing going on here)
His brother had a poorer second year than first.
But he's not his brother.
And individuals will perform differently, so there's no blanket rule.

The bottom line in all this is... if around half our side have better 2024s than 2023, and half of the rest stay the same we'll be a better side even if there is a drop in  form for some.
If a dozen of our players drop off, we could be in strife. :(

There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #50
We are competitive with responsive coaching calls so avoiding multi-goal runs against.
We maintain overall form and include depth players as needed for team first changes.
We see the injury curse only in the rear view mirror and nightmares.
We see natural development of all younger players and strong leadership from our seniors.
We remain united, doggedly determined, and never give up. Upholding the culture and brand that emerged this year. Showcasing a club that supporters, sponsers, and players, and superstars want to join.

The results will take care of themselves.

Go Blues
Coming together is the beginning.
Keeping together is progress.
Working together is success.
Henry Ford.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #51
We are competitive with responsive coaching calls so avoiding multi-goal runs against.
We maintain overall form and include depth players as needed for team first changes.
We see the injury curse only in the rear view mirror and nightmares.
We see natural development of all younger players and strong leadership from our seniors.
We remain united, doggedly determined, and never give up. Upholding the culture and brand that emerged this year. Showcasing a club that supporters, sponsers, and players, and superstars want to join.

The results will take care of themselves.

Go Blues
My family renewed 2 weeks ago, we are all in.
Go Blues
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #52
Carlton will win a Prelim in 2024.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #53
There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?
Cincotta could stay in the team, even with Williams back in and no injuries there. If he were to make way, who plays in the pocket while others run off more on the flanks? Perhaps Newman, but he had a career-best year there.
Yeah, maybe an improved Kemp, even Marchbank or Gov on a small. But they're better as aerial interceptors. Cowan as an option with a good pre-season and escaping the second-year "blues". Time will tell.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #54
Cincotta could stay in the team, even with Williams back in and no injuries there. If he were to make way, who plays in the pocket while others run off more on the flanks? Perhaps Newman, but he had a career-best year there.
Yeah, maybe an improved Kemp, even Marchbank or Gov on a small. But they're better as aerial interceptors. Cowan as an option with a good pre-season and escaping the second-year "blues". Time will tell.

Boyd?


Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #56
There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?
Im hoping Cincotta isnt relegated to the VFL and Williams has to earn his spot in the seniors. I just dont see the latter as an automatic and he needs to prove he can stay on the park and be better than Cincotta.
We saw Markov replace Noble in the Collingwood finals teams after most would see Noble as the automatic pick ahead of the supp player but Markov's superior form and ability to play on a greater range of players was rewarded by the coach and McRae made the right choice.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #57
Im hoping Cincotta isnt relegated to the VFL and Williams has to earn his spot in the seniors. I just dont see the latter as an automatic and he needs to prove he can stay on the park and be better than Cincotta.
We saw Markov replace Noble in the Collingwood finals teams after most would see Noble as the automatic pick ahead of the supp player but Markov's superior form and ability to play on a greater range of players was rewarded by the coach and McRae made the right choice.

That should be a given EB.

However, it's pretty clear that Vossy wants quicker/better ball movement out of defence, hence Boyd's recall.

I'd like to see Cincotta stay in the 22 ... but I'd be going with 25 or 26 players and I don't think the AFL would condone that.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #58
The conventional wisdom is that you need 28-30 AFL ready players on a list to be a contender. That means that in any premiership team, there will be worthy, deserving players who miss out. I wish it weren't the case, but I can't see any way around it under the current system. Those AFL ready players who are on the margins won't hang around for ever. They will look for more senior opportunity elsewhere. In a very real way you do need to strike while the iron is hot.

Re: Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

Reply #59
The conventional wisdom is that you need 28-30 AFL ready players on a list to be a contender. That means that in any premiership team, there will be worthy, deserving players who miss out. I wish it weren't the case, but I can't see any way around it under the current system. Those AFL ready players who are on the margins won't hang around for ever. They will look for more senior opportunity elsewhere. In a very real way you do need to strike while the iron is hot.

Yes, having decent depth is a key factor in a premiership tilt.

The lure of a premiership and the companionship of good teammates can overwhelm the desire for more opportunity.  I think that's why Paddy Dow was reluctant to move on.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball