As you can appreciate, I think we know that we are still in development mode, and one of the things we are looking for is to develop a winning attitude, as well as a winning feeling.
Irrespective, the conversation surrounding who plays when is occurring and largely it will vary depending on what our aims are.
Team balance is one. Learning opportunities with guidance is another.
Realistically I look at it, and I can see a few "constants" that are likely to be the case for our team selection, irrespective of what value we perceive they bring to the table.
What I can see happening is that the following players will be picked most weeks unless injured, or struggling for form/fitness majorly.
Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want:
Marc Murphy Kade Simpson Matthew Kreuzer Ed Curnow Dale Thomas Levi Casboult Matthew Wright
These guys are going to play pretty much when they are available and even if we think they are struggling. They are there not to perform well themselves, but play their role to the best of their ability and ensure that the team is playing the right way, and that other blokes are playing their allotted roles or learning to play them properly. These guys are only going to exclude themselves from selection if they are struggling big time.
The next tier:
Jack Silvagni SPS Matthew Kennedy Patrick Cripps Harry McKay Darcy Lang Lachie Plowman Jarrod Garlett Caleb Marchbank Jacob Weitering Zac Fisher David Cunningham Charlie Curnow Tom Williamson Jarrod Pickett Ciaran Byrne
These guys are no longer "learning" to play football. Some are learning to compete, or learning roles, and some weeks they will benefit from dropping down to VFL level to polish up something or work on their leadership ability, but you will find that these guys are going to be 15-23 gamers for the year (some more likely to play more than others).
The next Tier:
Sam Kerridge Jed Lamb Liam Jones Sam Rowe Aaron Mullett Cam O'Shea Matthew Lobbe Nick Graham Andrew Phillips Matt Shaw Alex Silvagni
This group are role/depth players who could surprise and play every week but are more likely to be filling in the gaps for team balance that we cant quite get right from the aforementioned. I expect some to play frequently but most of them will be doing well to get 10+ AFL games for the year and will be the VFL equivalent of what the first tier I wrote down do for our VFL team.
The Next Tier: Paddy Dow Lochie O'Brien Tom De Koning Angus Schumacher Harrison Macreadie Cameron Poulson Pat Kerr
Youngsters that are still firmly on their L plates and looking to find their feet at this level, or learn roles. Some might emerge instantly and play like seasoned pros (looking at Paddy Dow mainly or Cam Poulson hopefully) but realistically if they get anywhere near 10 games for the year, they will be deemed a roaring success. (Projected anywhere from 0-10 games with anything else being an outlier).
This is where I see our list for 2018. This is likely to be how our MC select our team for round 1, and will contain a few but not many surprises, mainly regarding team balance and opposition match ups, but anticipate that some are going to be ahead of others in the pecking order simply because we need them to be. I expect we will see the 3-4 year draftees playing pretty much every week unless their form is putrid (and even then we might persist because there is little they can benefit from at VFL level).
So I figured post round 9 is a good time to revisit this particular thread.
We all have our questions as to why things are the way they are, and the answers are wide and varied but ultimately, the way I broke up these groups, and forecasted how many games they SHOULD play, based on where our list is at, paints the picture better than any other explanation of why we have been so poor in season 2018.
Effectively, if you look above I have listed a fairly best case scenario regarding our list, in terms of what players bring what effort and class every week and it really does tell the story of where we are at, and why we are performing so poorly.
Of the first tier: Simpson, Thomas and Wright have been the only players to play every game and the absence of the rest has been sorely missed, irrespective of how well we have covered them at times.
Of our second tier: Unfortunately, Cripps, Fisher, SPS and Plowman are the only ever present players from this tier and most of this tier have shown patchy form, or ability to be on the park. Cripps, Fisher and Charlie are the only 3 from this tier that have really had what can be called good form. The rest have come in and out, played the odd stinker, or generally haven't been cited.
Of our third tier: Liam Jones and Aaron Mullet are the only ever present options and we would have been doing well if the rest of these guys had shown good form when they were playing (Rowe is probably the only other player from this tier to have been a good contributer most of the time). The rest have been similarly patchy.
Our fourth tier: Paddy Dow is playing more footy than I was expecting/hoping he needed to, and Lachie O Brien is ahead of schedule and done ok.
What the above shows, is why we are miles off the pace of a competitive footy side, and the fact that we have managed a win, is almost a miracle. We have had the perfect storm of the players we needed to rely on not performing this year. We needed to have our best 22 made up of our first 2 tiers of players, with sprinklings of the others for team balance, and the one week we got that against Essendon, we had a win.
Unfortunately, circumstances have conspired to prevent us from picking the top tier altogether, which was going to be the key to us doing any damage on the scoreboard this season.
Again, I expect us to be better after the bye, and frankly Gold Coast and Western bulldogs aside, it might actually work out better for us to fare better with blokes getting on the park in the second half of the year as we have played a fairly tough schedule until now. Given whom we have faced, we could and should do much better in the second half of the season.
Spare 20 minutes so, just for the heck of it, did some research.
Roughly, our past 5-6 years, looks like this:
3 Presidents. 3 CEOs. 3 Senior Coaches, umpteen assistant coaches. Recruiting staff turnovers... Board turnover and still a divided Board.
Capable players traded out out/sacked: E Betts, J Garlett, B Gibbs, L Henderson, J Laidler, M Robinson, Z Tuohy, J Waite & C Yarran (potential unrealised).
Capable (I know that's subjective) blokes retired/sacked: D Armfield, A Carrazzo, A Everitt, R Houlihan, M Jamison, A Joseph, C Judd, B McLean, H Scotland, B Thornton, A Walker & S White (regardless of whether we all agree that some of these blokes were a loss... most if not all would be in our best 28).
Non-hackers/not in best 28: D Viojo-Rainbow, B Boekhorst, K Jaksch, J Tutt, M Whiley, C Smith, J Foster, M Dick, L Sumner, D Gorringe, B Smedts, R Palmer, R O'Keefe, M Carter, N Duigan, S Kerridge, T Bell, C Wood, J Russell, K Lucas, M Watson, R Warnock, A Collins, P Bower, M Austin, S Hampson, P McCarthy, N Graham, J Lamb, A Mullett, J. Cachia, G Giles, N Holman, L Mitchell, A McInnes, M Davies, R Kerr, D Ellard, C O'Shea, D Buckley, J Bootsma, T Menzel & T Temay.
MIA this year (on or off the field) through poor or indifferent form, or injury: J Silvagni, M Murphy, SPS, M Kennedy, S Docherty, Marchbank, Weitering, Cuningham, Williamson, Pickett, Plowman, Phillips, Byrne, ACOS and Casboult.
Mmm, okay, think I'll go outside and find a strong tree, length of rope and chair.
These blokes in bold still play for us....
Ultimately, none of this is all that concerning.
Its the known path we must continue walking down, and all we can control is setting the appropriate standards.
Who cares where he was drafted at. I can list countless first round picks that fail. His draft selection should be a minor factor in whether you select a guy that has been delisted by another struggling club. And If he would look so good at Hawthorn why did they and 16 other teams pass on him?
My point is these sorts of players take spots on a list and with such a low chance of working out why not retain players like Holman and Gowers instead of selecting hacks that 17 other clubs passed on with their very late picks.
Mullet was delisted by the team that won the spoon last year. Doesn't that tell us something.
Love to know how many goal Mullet and O'Shea concede from frees. Clueless, clumsy players that cost us with stupid rookie frees every week.
My point is, that I have already explained why.
Shawny, its important, because it shows he was talented in his draft crop. He was taken in amongst a bunch of blokes who cut us up on the weekend. Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw and Jake Lever. We spent pick 78 on him and needed outside run. Hes given us a bit of that, and last week played pretty well. This week, he wasnt the lone ranger in being poor.
Holman was a handy player, we delisted a few years ago, because at the time, I am guessing he wanted to leave. Its the only scenario that makes sense. meanwhile, Gold Coast have picked him up when he was delisted from a spoon side. What makes him different? Nothing. Its the same proposition. Hes working at the moment for Gold Coast, and ours arent quite working out as well, but ultimately have a look at the difference they make to their sides.
Gold Coast are sitting 15th and have won 3 games.
We are sitting last and have won 1.
Gowers and his mates arent far ahead of us either.
If Garlett doesn't get dropped I will lose the little bit of faith I have left in this current coaching group.
Jogs around the outside of the play guarding space and does what he can to avoid getting involved. Refuses to use his one advantage in his pace. Put simply offers SFA week in week out. Cant see him outlasting his current contract.
Reckon our club would learn to resist in taking these late picks on these sorts of players that 17 other teams say no to.
Mullet, O'Shea and Garlett might cost little but they take a spot on the list and then the club tries to justify be playing them when they are not up to it.
Jarrod Garlett is a low risk high reward player. Hes a former first round draftee, with good tools to play the game, and would absolutely look good in a side such as Hawthorn where everyone is much more polished and is experienced.
Mullet was an insurance pickup who was likely to play more VFL footy than not, in case someone went down injured and we needed some outside run. Unfortunately, hes playing off half back in a role that Docherty was playing so much better last season, and is actually not playing too poorly, he just isnt very good when contrasted with Docherty.
O Shea got a chance off hard work, and good form in the VFL. Irrespective of how he works out on our list, the fact that he got the rewards makes the Northern Blues an attractive destination for AFL blokes looking for a second chance, and although he might not be a success story for us, it could pay dividends in other players.
I think that the emotion of yesterdays game leaves us not thinking critically about things, and looking too much at the johnny come lately outcomes, and not enough on the bigger picture which is far more important. We have faced a bit of a perfect storm this season, but the reality is that it was much more likely to occur than not given just how badly we have been hit with injuries to too many key performers.
We made the decision to trade Gibbs, which was always going to put a bit of a strain on our team to survive, but its absolutely doesnt help that the two mature mids we traded in that have a good long term outlook in Lang and Kennedy have been broken men this season, Docherty went down injured, and Kreuzer has gone back to his old self where he takes two steps forward and then three back thanks to being physically hindered.
We need to have a better grasp on where we are at than this or else we just are firing out criticism for no good reason.
They need to be Josh Caddy quality type castoffs though...not more Mullets, OSheas...
Hartung is suited to North who have great inside players like Cunnington, Ziebell, Jacobs, Higgins etc but who need some run on the outside......wouldnt have suited us IMO as he is a poor contester like Mullet...
Matthew Wright types will do.
Blue collar, roll the sleeves up and perform well every week without costing the world.
A bit of breakaway speed would be good too. Is Pickett close to a return yet??
We have checked the first box and the second box is a work in progress but you can see the baton has been passed in a few positions already (cripps, fisher, Docherty, Charlie, Marchbank) and the rest will happen gradually. The third box will be to start looking at how we get better and assist our new blood.
The next step is to get a couple more Matthew Wright types into the club. One for the midfield and one for half back.
My fear is that we can't fix it with this lot, and we have to play the wait and see game.
We heard a lot about billy hartung and his supposed character issues but have a look at where we are currently struggling (outside run) and explain to me why we didn't look at him...
We need to get a couple of cast off's IMHO. Blokes who are surplus to requirements but would walk up start in our team.
It's a problem we'll hopefully be able to stop after this lot.
I watched Brisbane vs hawthorn and realised something. Daniel Rich, Mitch Robinson, Dane zorko, Dane beams, Alan Christensen, Lewis Taylor, Luke hodge even Charlie Cameron is 23.
They are playing kids with much more accomplished senior players who actually bring something to the team besides experience.
This is why we are struggling. We hope our kids will be better off for it, but but we are running them around with Cameron o Shea, Sam kerridge, and whilst we have some handy types they aren't blisteringly fast or skilled enough or strong enough or classy enough to compete and carry the load for kids around them.
So have Wright and Lamb.....Mullett has played every game reckon he will play seniors for sure.....
Do you think they are sending messages to the group?
Lamb and Wright have no reason to worry IMHO, particularly Lamb who was at his unsociable best, although his go isnt the quick half back flankers, and melbourne have a few of them.
I'd like to see Shaw get a run, he's been OK for a few weeks now.
He gives us a couple of options in Ed's absence and helps with our medium/small leg speed.
Sunday is going to be wet, I can't see Kerr coming unless McKay is out.
Not sure why Wright would be listed on the bench unless he's suffering from that head knock.
It might be time to give O'Shea or Plowman a rest, Rowe has had two ordinary weeks and I'd be keen to see SoJ tag Hogan, but given Gawn presses hard forward they may keep Rowe but I think Jones and Weitering are better match ups for the Demons forward setup. Given the history you'd think Rowe wants to play this one though.
Wow, talking about drawing on a long bow... with some pretty peculiar logic, spanks of 'let's choose the lesser of two evils' kind of attitude. To even think for a moment that Crippa is anything like Buckley is bizarre. Watch Crippa's interviews again... he comes across a quality person, with towering humility. Nothing humble about Buckley... smart? Yes. Witty? Yes. Champion player? Yes. But there is much about him that comes across as a condescending self absorbed pr1ck.
Doc, like Crippa, comes across as a quality person, with strong footy smarts and communication skills. And, like Crippa, a seeming authentic love of the CFC.
Doc and Crippa are both worthy Captains of the CFC, can your brain grasp that reality without having to find a potential fault in one to justify appointing the other? Can you perhaps trust the CFC and those close to both of them (and others) to make the right decision? And that just might be joint skippers... or not. Either way, does it really matter? They both love the place and want to drive success and are bona fide leaders. To even mention Crippa's name in the same sentence as Buckley is very offensive.
Many organisations have groups within groups and it is then dependent on the senior management to dismantle these 'exclusive' groups to create a more 'inclusive' environment and unless you've been hiding under a rock, it is blatantly obvious that BB is creating an environment solidly underpinned by inclusiveness.... whole of club inclusiveness, this kind of culture will weed out self-interested pr1cks rather quickly... or provide them with the tools to change.
+1
It may even be as simple as going to a vote and allowing the playing group to structure up the leadership group they demand.
The day we can do that, we know we have turned the corner as a footy club!
