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Re: The Voice

Reply #75 –
There were two surveys commissioned earlier this year (January and March I believe) canvassing First Nations people and their thoughts on The Voice. 80% in one survey and 83% in the other said they would vote yes. All surveys have limits, and these two are no exception. However big or small the sample spaces may be, they have to be more representative than what people are supposedly hearing. 

Re: The Voice

Reply #76 –
Quote from: PaulP on
There were two surveys commissioned earlier this year (January and March I believe) canvassing First Nations people and their thoughts on The Voice. 80% in one survey and 83% in the other said they would vote yes. All surveys have limits, and these two are no exception. However big or small the sample spaces may be, they have to be more representative than what people are supposedly hearing. 

It'd be interesting to see if that vote held up.
A lot of non-indigenous people who were intending to vote 'yes' changed their minds during the course of the year.
I'm sure the majority of indigenous people still supported the yes  vote...but for those, if any, who changed their minds I wonder what caused that change.

Re: The Voice

Reply #77 –
Quote from: Lods on
It'd be interesting to see if that vote held up.
A lot of non-indigenous people who were intending to vote 'yes' changed their minds during the course of the year.
I'm sure the majority of indigenous people still supported the yes  vote...but for those, if any, who changed their minds I wonder what caused that change.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-02/fact-check-indigenous-australians-support-for-the-voice/102673042

For those interested, this piece does a bit of a deep dive into this question. As I often say, both God and the devil reside in the detail. At any rate, despite what the politicians say, we are essentially back to square one IMO.

Re: The Voice

Reply #78 –
Quite some layers to the 'failure cake' of the Yes campaign, as have been mentioned here.

The article from The Conversation, which PaulP posted under General Discussion, shone a very bright light on the media's -- none too impressive -- role.

This little black duck singled how the marketing/PR/slogan failures may also have contributed.

EB1 made a very salient point also, re timing during economic hardship, which reminded me of the psychological works by Prof Sheldon Solomon (outlined in his book, 'The Worm In The Middle') and Anthropologist, Ernest Becker (from his book, 'The Denial of Death') - in a crass, simplistic nutshell... people become more conservative during times of hardship. I'm not suggesting that the outcome would have been different but I do ponder had the referendum been held in December what the difference may have been.

And there are other layers as mentioned here and in the media... well, those who report without agenda, bias or prejudice.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: The Voice

Reply #79 –
I think the "times are tough" argument is pretty weak. To give one example among many, there are people around who spend hundreds of dollars on football memberships, tickets, merch, travel, hotels etc. if their team make finals in a different city. But somehow, standing in that booth on Saturday, with that dinky little pencil in your hand, you can't write the word "yes" because there's a cost of living crisis.

Yeah, not buying it.

Re: The Voice

Reply #80 –
The problem with polls is as the article suggests, that the result is biased by the methodology, the type of questions, the order in which they are asked.  Whether that is deliberate or not really depends on the organisation doing the polling.

Many polling organisations do conform to standards that require them to publish methodologies, but just because they are published and publicly available doesn't mean they are reliable or repeatable.

In any case, in retrospect the referendum itself was the ultimate arbiter, and when the Northern Territory ( Last survey 40% Indigenous ) says unambiguously "No", that is a difficult circumstance to be easily written off by supporters of the Voice.

I'd assert there is not much value pointing the finger at Albanese or Dutton, they had very little to do with the NT Voice result!

The next question to be answered regarding polling might be, will the organisations that run them change even if it doesn't suit their politics?
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Voice

Reply #81 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I think the "times are tough" argument is pretty weak.
Actually, the resistance to change is a characteristic of society under duress, it happens in the lead up to and during war. Under social duress the population opts for the status quo.

But, I'd assert that even under different circumstances the referendum would still have failed, because the question didn't offer the answer the wider general public wanted. The question was about as valid as Howard's Republic Referendum.

Was the question disingenuous?
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Voice

Reply #82 –
The bias is alleviated to some degree by the fact that the 2 polls were conducted by 2 different outfits, Ipsos and YouGov. It's also worth noting the overall conclusions by those individuals quoted, who are experienced in understanding the numbers. Samples include :

More importantly, he said, when "even … a pretty small sample" produces a lopsided result of more than 70 per cent, for example, you can be "pretty confident" the real result is above 50 per cent.


However, they endorsed the YouGov poll in particular as the best available measure, and each agreed there was no scientific evidence to suggest anything other than broad support among First Nations Australians.

"So the sample is very consistent with the idea that Indigenous voters strongly supported the Voice at the time taken, and implies that they are likely to still do so."

Mr Bowe said the results of the two polls were "lopsided enough that we can say with confidence that the Indigenous Voice has strong Indigenous support," even if the exact figure was in question.
 

Re: The Voice

Reply #83 –
Quote from: LP on
Actually, the resistance to change is a characteristic of society under duress, it happens in the lead up to and during war. Under social duress the population opts for the status quo.

But, I'd assert that even under different circumstances the referendum would still have failed, because the question didn't offer the answer the wider general public wanted. The question was about as valid as Howard's Republic Referendum.

Was the question disingenuous?

You can look through our history and see that we are resistant to change at the best of times.

Re: The Voice

Reply #84 –
When you spend 450 million on a referendum and people can't afford to keep the power on or pay the rent then they probably have other priorities than to follow the direction of a Government who they think should be helping all Australians..

Re: The Voice

Reply #85 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 on
When you spend 450 million on a referendum and people can't afford to keep the power on or pay the rent then they probably have other priorities than to follow the direction of a Government who they think should be helping all Australians..


Ironic that the rich white suburbs voted yes.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: The Voice

Reply #86 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
Ironic that the rich white suburbs voted yes.

You will find if you go through our history, the wealthiest among us are, more often than not, socially quite progressive.

Re: The Voice

Reply #87 –
Quote from: PaulP on
You can look through our history and see that we are resistant to change at the best of times.
Quite possibly, but that doesn't negate the existence of other phenomenon.
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Voice

Reply #88 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 on
When you spend 450 million on a referendum and people can't afford to keep the power on or pay the rent then they probably have other priorities than to follow the direction of a Government who they think should be helping all Australians..
Yes, and I fear the even tougher times ahead will only cause this waste to become a bigger and bitter issue. It's not going to be fun to be at either end of the spectrum, retirees self-funded or otherwise and those new to the workforce are really going to suffer.

I've associates in Peru who having just been slammed by the pandemic then coped it in the neck over industrial and social reforms coming out of what they describe as communist rule (Left Wing). What is / has happened there I believe is not so much a Peru specific issue but a precursor to what is about to happen to large portion of the global population. Peru is quite liberalist and as such it makes a good model for the west.

In some regard the referendum itself and it's fall is a failure of many to read the room!
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Voice

Reply #89 –
Actually I do feel a bit sorry for Albanese, as a politician we are use to backflips, but he stuck by his word and took the Voice to the polls.

In hindsight his problem was listening to the wrong people, the loudest voices did not represent the wider majority, and it appears not even the minority majority.

It seems a select few loud voices possibly presented their personal opinions as those of the wider society, and these loud voices got hold of the ears!
The Force Awakens!