CV and mad panic behaviour

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #420 – March 29, 2020, 07:59:22 am

People need to distinguish between cases and deaths.

Flu season won't necessarily mean an increase in cases.....but it probably will lead to an increase number of deaths....a higher percentage of deaths from infected.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #421 – March 29, 2020, 08:07:28 am

More madness as reported by the HS, these kents should know better. I'd farken jail them.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/police-call-in-afp-to-deal-with-medicos-who-breached-quarantine/news-story/6c1d7d1274d3bb80a93d03f49999df37

Police call in AFP to deal with medicos who breached quarantine

Almost 30 medical professionals have dodged strict quarantine laws after flying in from Chile then boarding interstate flights despite being ordered to self-isolate at Sydney hotels for 14 days.
A group of doctors who landed at Sydney Airport from Chile fled their hotels where they had been ordered to self-isolate, with 27 managing to board domestic flights.

In an extraordinary breach of quarantine orders, NSW Police Force confirmed last night that they had instructed the Australian Federal Police to issue Public Health Orders to the missing medical professionals when they arrived at their destinations.

The incident occurred at 11pm on Friday night when NSW Health asked for assistance to process passengers on board two flights which had recently arrived from Santiago.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #422 – March 29, 2020, 08:39:52 am

It just beggars belief. The privilege and entitled attitude of these pricks. We need all the medicos we have right now but they should be chucked in a cell for two weeks.

Maybe if people openly flaunt laws and think they are above them, then perhaps our authorities might reserve their right to treatment?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #423 – March 29, 2020, 08:56:16 am

No matter which way you cut it, these 30 medicos, knowing full well the situation, have behaved as criminals and should be treated as such.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #424 – March 29, 2020, 09:57:11 am

Weekly shop today. F it, nobody else is quarantining. Couldn't get basics but a group of older people who had blown into town were gas bagging in the front doorway and they'd had a good shop.

The veneer over what we call "civilisation" is very thin.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #425 – March 29, 2020, 11:35:20 am

Quote from: Baggers on March 29, 2020, 08:56:16 am

No matter which way you cut it, these 30 medicos, knowing full well the situation, have behaved as criminals and should be treated as such.

In fairness this is were one rule fits all doesn't work.

Without doubt they have done something wrong. But if they are already infected with mild symptoms, then they are the perfect people to be looking after other infected patients. We should have been prioritising their tests instead of isolating them, and then making use of them accordingly.

Instead our focus is isolate them and let a healthy medical staff work in the isolation wards.

It's one of the main reasons we need an antibody test as soon as possible.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #426 – March 29, 2020, 11:56:26 am

Quote from: kruddler on March 29, 2020, 07:59:22 am

People need to distinguish between cases and deaths.

Flu season won't necessarily mean an increase in cases.....but it probably will lead to an increase number of deaths....a higher percentage of deaths from infected.

Yes, no doubt.

The early analysis has already shown a strong correlation between youthful severe cases of COVID-19 and Influenza antibodies, but these tests are retrospective so it's not clear the infections were simultaneous. While frail elderly and otherwise medically vulnerable types are highly susceptible to just SARS-CoV-2 alone, it does potentially mean simultaneous Influenza and COVID-19 infections increase the risk of serious outcomes for even the very healthy, youthful or otherwise. That potentially means the worst is yet to come for countries entering the Influenza season.

It's particularly prudent for Australia, which has one of the highest per capita ratios of asthmatics in the world.

The R0 of influenza is low, typically 1.3, that means one person can lead to 14(1.3¹⁰) infections after ten infection cycles. The R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is trending towards 3, that means the same ten cycles leads to 59,049(3¹⁰) cases.

A real concern is that COVID-19 might leave people more susceptible to Influenza, if that can cause the R0 of Infuenza to rise, for example becoming just 1.4, that means Influenza can become 29(1.4¹⁰) infected people becoming twice as infectious / deadly.

Unfortunately the general public read some of this, perhaps reported as a 7% increase from 1.3 to 1.4, so who cares?

They and many of the journalist / bloggers reporting this do not understand the implications;

R0	R0¹⁰
1.3	14
1.4	29
1.5	57
1.6	109
2.0	1,024
3.0	59,049
4.0	1,048,576

If you get to an R0 of 7 or 8 you find out your connected in some way to Kevin Bacon!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #427 – March 29, 2020, 02:23:13 pm

New case increase in Australia has dropped from high 20% to low teens

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #428 – March 29, 2020, 02:40:11 pm

This isn't going to be resolved in days.

Stating today is low or tomorrow will be high are just maybe scenarios. To comment with any certainty you can only look retrospectively at a period of weeks or months.

If you are lucky enough to develop a model that works against the historical data you might be able to predict a few days out like the weather, but that reliable model isn't coming before this is all over because it needs the historical data before it can be formulated.

Stating that today was lower, is a bit like climate change deniers stating that today was a record low after a year that averaged high!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #429 – March 29, 2020, 03:14:12 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton on March 29, 2020, 02:23:13 pm

New case increase in Australia has dropped from high 20% to low teens

Its folly to look at any moving average at the moment.

How many actually get tested?

From what I've heard there's a shortage of testing kits and they're reserving it for patients facing hospitalisation.

What that means is we'll get fewer results until they sort that situation out.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #430 – March 29, 2020, 03:37:50 pm

Quote from: LP on March 29, 2020, 02:40:11 pm

This isn't going to be resolved in days.

Stating today is low or tomorrow will be high are just maybe scenarios. To comment with any certainty you can only look retrospectively at a period of weeks or months.

If you are lucky enough to develop a model that works against the historical data you might be able to predict a few days out like the weather, but that reliable model isn't coming before this is all over because it needs the historical data before it can be formulated.

Stating that today was lower, is a bit like climate change deniers stating that today was a record low after a year that averaged high!

From the PMs and Health Ministers speech today (Courtesy of HS)

"In what Health Minister Greg Hunt has called “an early positive sign”, the rate of increase in coronavirus cases has gone from around 25 per cent to 30 per cent per day a week ago to around 13 per cent to 15 per cent today"

I'd say cleverer and more qualified people than me or you are looking at all this info and making calls based on it. All it says is that the measures implemented to date have made some progress.

Italy had less cases than us up to Feb 20. Their cases grew rapidly from Feb 21 surpassing us and everyone else.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #431 – March 29, 2020, 06:46:42 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton on March 29, 2020, 03:37:50 pm

From the PMs and Health Ministers speech today (Courtesy of HS)

"In what Health Minister Greg Hunt has called “an early positive sign”, the rate of increase in coronavirus cases has gone from around 25 per cent to 30 per cent per day a week ago to around 13 per cent to 15 per cent today"

I'd say cleverer and more qualified people than me or you are looking at all this info and making calls based on it. All it says is that the measures implemented to date have made some progress.

Italy had less cases than us up to Feb 20. Their cases grew rapidly from Feb 21 surpassing us and everyone else.

So, you’re telling us that politicians don’t “interpret” statistics to put themselves in a better light...?
Ummm, ok...

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #432 – March 29, 2020, 07:24:01 pm

Quote from: northernblue on March 29, 2020, 06:46:42 pm

So, you’re telling us that politicians don’t “interpret” statistics to put themselves in a better light...?
Ummm, ok...

Just saying I didnt make it up or read it on Weatbix packet

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #433 – March 29, 2020, 07:48:14 pm

I think "new cases" is a fluff statistic, you can make this go up or down depending on how many tests you decide to do, and who you decide to test. The stats that are going to matter in this are "new ICU admissions", "total number in ICU", "% of ICU capacity currently being used" and "deaths". These stats would give you a much better idea of where we are and where we are going

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #434 – March 29, 2020, 08:13:27 pm

We have to take extreme measures, and society has to stop the morons, so these people and people like them can endure!