19:25 at the MCG on Saturday night. I always struggle to get to sleep after night games.
Win this and we play finals. Just wish we got one of Walsh or cerra back for this one but very unlikely.
Kemp looks to have done a hammy as well so injures are pulling up but we keep getting it done. There will be a tipping point however.
They have their injuries as well so still think we can give them a very big run for there money.
Kennedy will need to play better than Dow to take his spot and dont see that happening.
Fisher is exquisite off half back and dont see Boyd replacing him as Fisher is far classier in that position.
But we are missing McKay, SOS, Walsh. Gov and Cerra in a very big way.
Kennedy will need to play better than Dow to take his spot and dont see that happening.
Fisher is exquisite off half back and dont see Boyd replacing him as Fisher is far classier in that position.
But we are missing McKay, SOS, Walsh and Cerra in a very big way.
Agree and trust McGovern over Marchbank at the moment.
Marchbank looks off the pace and no wonder with the amount of footy the poor guy has missed.
Boyd is harder at the football / opponent than Fisher, they are a different type of player.
I think Fisher and Saad is a 2 doesn't go into 1 situation, when one is busy the other is missing, they aren't complimentary enough. It made the team around them work pretty hard, not sure that is sustainable. Saad gets the nod for obvious reasons, and he has the extra trick of being competitive above his head.
We had a few guys down today. Do we think of replacing them? Who do we have left? I'm not sure we will make many changes, but I'm always one for horses for courses. I don't like losing the game at the selection table.
We had a few guys down today.
I don't really agree, I don't think either side was down on effort, we lacked polish or basic skills were off, our effort was good but the pressure was high for both teams and that is what happens. They lacked impact, they got a lot of I50 that Weiters and Newman cleaned up, we are probably lucky Membrey was out, the tell was they sub'd the kid out of their F50.
Im probably going to regret saying this but I prefer Boyd back in the team down back than Fisher, doesnt mean Fisher cant stay in the 22/3 if his form deserves it but playing the loose half back role is about the easiest job going and id rather a specialist defender first than another rebounder only and while no huge fan of Boyd I think he has more idea defensively than Fisher.
I am probably most confident with the right side, we can compete very well against the Demons. More than in the past few seasons. Still not 100% sure we can walk away with the chocolates, but could give Melbourne a decent scare. If that should happen sides will be nervous and there will be perceived pressure set it their minds playing against us. Allowing for more turnovers and skill errors even when not under high pressure. We just need to be certain to keep bringing the pressure to the field to keep sides second guessing an trying to get rid of the ball with panic and not composure. I am glad we had the fixture playing the last 6 or 7 sides to complete the home and away season. This is playing quality opposition and as close to finals type football to come ahead in the following month. Definitely character building.
Saad's first half was uncharacteristically poor...missed tackles, got stepped and got caught spectating a few times. Caught half way between defending and attacking and left out of position doing neither.
With Boyd and McGovern out Saad had to play a shut down role while Fisher free wheeled. Zac did some nice things but obviously we prefer Saad in that role.
Saad is getting tagged - a very hard tag.
Do we bring Young into the team and play him or TDK forward? Charlie had 2 and sometimes 3 blokes on him yesterday and May and Lever will be double teaming him this week. Young won't kick a bag of goals but at least a tall presence.
Maybe Doc plays more down back this week to replace Kemp and Ed comes into the starting 22 and Binns as the sub?
Do we bring Young into the team and play him or TDK forward? Charlie had 2 and sometimes 3 blokes on him yesterday and May and Lever will be double teaming him this week. Young won't kick a bag of goals but at least a tall presence.
Hard no to Young as a forward.
Maybe Doc plays more down back this week to replace Kemp and Ed comes into the starting 22 and Binns as the sub?
Hard no to Young as a forward
blue...more about Young possibly rucking to support Pitto and playing TDK permanently forward.
Charlie will have his work cut out against May and Lever but hopefully the likes of Martin, Motlop, Owies, Cunningham etc can pick up the slack and TDK can push forward at times.
I think if Kemp can't get up for this game then Young needs to be the next man up.
Do we bring Young into the team and play him or TDK forward? Charlie had 2 and sometimes 3 blokes on him yes,terday and May and Lever will be double teaming him this week. Young won't kick a bag of goals but at least a tall presence.
Maybe Doc plays more down back this week to replace Kemp and Ed comes into the starting 22 and Binns as the sub?
You are thinking about it all backwards.
Firstly, we don't need to bring in forwards to play on their backmen. They need to find matchups for our forwards.
Secondly, it doesn't matter if Charlie is double teamed, it means we have a free player elsewhere......use them.
Finally, We need to play how we want to play. We are winning playing the way we are playing. Why change it?
The only thing we need to look at changing is how we enter F50 when Charlie is being double teamed. He is probably good enough to beat 2 opponents half the time. However, whoever the spare player is is good enough to beat nobody 100% of the time. So lets look for the spare man and let them double team Charlie.
Petty out for Melbourne is a real loss after starring as a forward and no sign of bogey players like Oliver or Fritsch on the horizon either which is a real help. Petracca being forced to play forward is also another bonus for our mids.
Of course with Petty out do Melbourne do the obvious and play Grundy hoping for a big rebound and collective effort from both their star ruckman to prove the critics and media wrong.
Only way I can see Melbourne winning is if the latter happens and one of Grundy or Gawn catches fire down forward along with Pickett and Petracca but I dont see it and imo Melbournes form isnt that great.
Id expect Charlie to be all over May as well remembering the whole successful May/Lever double act was based around Petty doing the grunt defending work and that wont be happening.
Melbourne are tough physically especially around the ball and having played a tough game vs Stkilda I hope our blokes are up to another grinding type game.
Are we expecting anyone to come back from injury this week? I heard Doc on radio the other day after the game, he explained how system based they are now so when someone comes in, they know exactly what to do and what's expected of them. The last 7 weeks confirms this.
I think if Kemp can't get up for this game then Young needs to be the next man up.
Fortunately, players rarely miss games for cramp 🙂
Fortunately, players rarely miss games for cramp 🙂
Oh, was it only cramp? I thought it was another hammy. Haven't seen anything anywhere about it.
Ben McKay fixed up Petty for us.
How about Jack he has a strained knee not a medial.
Proper update please would be nice to get Walshy, Jack and Boyd back to see where we sit as I think this could potentially be grand final rehearsal.
Ben McKay fixed up Petty for us.
You sure it was Ben?
“How do you solve a problem like Pitt-o-net”…
Competes at the bounce and throw-in but offers nothing else. Doesn’t kick goals and doesn’t take intercept marks
“How do you solve a problem like Pitt-o-net”…
Competes at the bounce and throw-in but offers nothing else. Doesn’t kick goals and doesn’t take intercept marks
Not to mention his defensive positioning is atrocious.
Unfortunately not many quality rucks out there and I don't think TDK can do it alone.
Oh, was it only cramp? I thought it was another hammy. Haven't seen anything anywhere about it.
Kemp went off with what seemed to be cramp. His leg wasn’t iced after the game, he was moving freely and he had a huge grin on his face … like his teammates.
None of the commentators mentioned a hammy and he wasn’t listed as injured in any of the match reports 🤞
“How do you solve a problem like Pitt-o-net”…
Competes at the bounce and throw-in but offers nothing else. Doesn’t kick goals and doesn’t take intercept marks
A weird week to post such nonsence.
Pittonet had 3 marks to TDKs 1.
Pittonet had 1 contested mark to TDK's 0
Pittonet had 2 intercept marks to TDKs 0
Pittonet could've had a shot on goal, but went the short option instead.
TDK did have 2 shots on goal, but they were far from clear shots and more good fortune than good luck that it went through.
We dominated the clearance battle and Pittonets 10 hitouts to advantage just might've had something to do with it. TDK had 3 hitouts to advantage
My favourite stat RC-HTA%*
Pittonet - 19.6%
TDK - 9.1%
*For those who don't know, that is the likelyhood a ruckman will get a hitout to advantage from each ruck contest he attends.....and he played 12% less TOG over TDK as well.
And all of this, and it wasn't even one of Pittonets better games. But sure, he is the problem.
I gave Pittonet a vote, he was the one that had to take on Marshall more often than not and evened up the contest after half time which helped us get back in the game after Marshall dominated early. Way under appreciated is Pittonet and I dont think we would have won without him.
Pitto is a crab - if you cant defend nor kick goals as a ruckman then thats a crab.
Comparing stats when TDK spent most of his time forward is ludicrous.
Pitto is a crab - if you cant defend nor kick goals as a ruckman then thats a crab.
Comparing stats when TDK spent most of his time forward is ludicrous.
Well what a well thought out and intelligent rebuttal. ::)
Its a bit like asking Pittonet to kick goals when he doesn't spend much time forward?
Or complaining that he doesn't take intercept marks in a game where he took 2 to TDKs none.
Funny thing about crabs. There's an argument that nature considers it a perfect creature. Evolution keeps turning things into crabs.
There are plenty of different types of crabs throughout the world, and we can identify them immediately as crabs, but they've come through completely different evolutionary paths to get there and many are completely unrelated to eachother.
So perhaps calling Pittonet a crab is a compliment? ;)
Well what a well thought out and intelligent rebuttal. ::)
Its a bit like asking Pittonet to kick goals when he doesn't spend much time forward?
Or complaining that he doesn't take intercept marks in a game where he took 2 to TDKs none.
Funny thing about crabs. There's an argument that nature considers it a perfect creature. Evolution keeps turning things into crabs.
There are plenty of different types of crabs throughout the world, and we can identify them immediately as crabs, but they've come through completely different evolutionary paths to get there and many are completely unrelated to eachother.
So perhaps calling Pittonet a crab is a compliment? ;)
May as well get games in Hudson O'Keefe if thats the case. Maybe he can defend better and kick some goals.
The failure in analysis here continues to be the idea that one ruck or the other is the only correct answer, when it is pretty much obvious to most fans that the two are complimentary as Voss outlined in his post match presser.
I suspect in the vast majority of cases, both will be a stronger option than either in isolation.
I realise that might be sad news for some fans who have favourites, perhaps even 3rd wheels they favour that are struggling for a slot to fill, but it's AFL it's not meant to be easy and it certainly isn't fair!
I also don't get the Great Ruck non debate. By current contract standards, De Koning has signed a medium term deal, and Pittonet a long term deal. The club clearly wants both, and believes they can both work together. Voss mentioned in his last press conference that Pittonet is there to "grind away", and De Koning is there to "provide energy". He was asked about De Koning (and particularly his 3rd q) and was full of praise - he referred a few of De Koning's "statement plays." He also said it takes both of them to get the job done.
I gave Pittonet a vote, he was the one that had to take on Marshall more often than not and evened up the contest after half time which helped us get back in the game after Marshall dominated early. Way under appreciated is Pittonet and I dont think we would have won without him.
Did you see how StKilda got their first goal? First Crack highlighted Pittonet's poor effort, also highlighted why Fisher is only a back up.
Is Boyd available this week after his suspension? He was in pretty good form so be interesting to see if he comes back in this week or back through the VFL.
Is Boyd available this week after his suspension? He was in pretty good form so be interesting to see if he comes back in this week or back through the VFL.
Yes. Voss mentioned he will return in his presser.
Is Boyd available this week after his suspension? He was in pretty good form so be interesting to see if he comes back in this week or back through the VFL.
Straight in.
Straight in.
Agree, he was in good form before the suspension and has had a freshen up, plus it's not just about form but about standing by players who do the hard stuff or get hard done by!
By the way, Darcy Byrne-Jones missed a week from a concussion that was probably already evident when he played on before Boyd's tackle, in hindsight it looks like Port have form in allowing blokes to play on who are otherwise questionable?
Did you see how StKilda got their first goal? First Crack highlighted Pittonet's poor effort, also highlighted why Fisher is only a back up.
I noted that during the game and thought it was terrible. Its not like Marshall sprinted forward, he ambled to the fwd line with Pitto giving him 2 horse leads worth of space instead of a short dog leads worth. He must do better than that, its takes no skill, just footy smarts and effort.
Did you see how StKilda got their first goal? First Crack highlighted Pittonet's poor effort, also highlighted why Fisher is only a back up.
Yep Pittonet didnt follow his man back quick enough and needs to show more effort but I thought his ruckwork was better than TDK he had 23 hitouts/3 marks to TDK's nine hitouts and 1 mark...didnt see what others see in the greatness of TDK's game at all.
There is an old boxing saying that you take out your opponents legs by attacking their body. Pittonett attacks the body of opposing ruckman and takes out their legs which allows TDK to use his athleticism to advantage.
On Saturday's match. Melbourne might be in a bit of form but Carlton's form is better. We are due to beat these guys and if we turn up with the right attitude we should do it.
The failure in analysis here continues to be the idea that one ruck or the other is the only correct answer, when it is pretty much obvious to most fans that the two are complimentary as Voss outlined in his post match presser.
I suspect in the vast majority of cases, both will be a stronger option than either in isolation.
I realise that might be sad news for some fans who have favourites, perhaps even 3rd wheels they favour that are struggling for a slot to fill, but it's AFL it's not meant to be easy and it certainly isn't fair!
Failure in analysis, or failure in comprehension?
I've agreed with you that the compliment eachother, i always have. That is not part of the debate.
"A luxury we cannot afford" and "Better team balance without" is the take home points of this debate you, and others, are missing.
Read this slowly.....
If we play 2 ruckman, will our efforts in the ruck be better than we play 1 ruck? Absolutely they will.
Depending on who else is in the side (ie key forwards/backs) can the 2 ruckman potentially hurt our overall team balance and overall team performance as a result...that is, make us too tall? Certainly can.
Now we've got that cleared up....for the 99th time...back to the actual debate.
Is the team better off by playing....
1 ruck, and 2 key forwards, 2 key backs and a 3rd forward and a 3rd back.....(7 talls + 15 smalls)
or
2 rucks, and 2 key forwards, 2 key backs and a 3rd forward and a 3rd back.....(8 talls + 14 smalls)
I would 100% say we get better overall performance from the first option.
Our ruck performance will be down, but our pressure rating will be higher and give us more benefit.
1 ruck is sufficient to compete to an acceptable level.
2 rucks mean our ruck area is obviously better.
3 rucks mean its even better
4 rucks means its better again.
With the addition of additional rucks, that area is strengthened, but other areas are weakened.
We literally won games without a single ruck, so clearly their importance is overstated.
If your 2nd ruck/backup ruck can not hold down another position on merit, then "its a luxury we can't afford"
Right now, we don't have Harry or Jack up forward so
For "team balance" we can clearly play 2 rucks. Without them, we are not 'tall enough', which is the opposite problem to what we have when everyone is fit.
Yep Pittonet didnt follow his man back quick enough and needs to show more effort but I thought his ruckwork was better than TDK he had 23 hitouts/3 marks to TDK's nine hitouts and 1 mark...didnt see what others see in the greatness of TDK's game at all.
Darcy had a million hit outs the other week against us but just like pittonet he had no influence.
Yep Pittonet didnt follow his man back quick enough and needs to show more effort but I thought his ruckwork was better than TDK he had 23 hitouts/3 marks to TDK's nine hitouts and 1 mark...didnt see what others see in the greatness of TDK's game at all.
Forget about hitouts, that includes ones that go to 50-50 contests and even to the opposition.
HTA was Pittonet 10, TDK 3.
FWIW Marshall also had 10.....even though he attented 19 more ruck contests and had 7 more hitouts than Pittonet, end result was same. 10 each to advantage.
Forget about hitouts, that includes ones that go to 50-50 contests and even to the opposition.
HTA was Pittonet 10, TDK 3.
FWIW Marshall also had 10.....even though he attented 19 more ruck contests and had 7 more hitouts than Pittonet, end result was same. 10 each to advantage.
Can you provide the complete stats of last weeks game of Marshall, Pitt and TDK?
While pits ruck craft is very good the game doesn’t end after the hit out.
While TDK doesn’t have Pitts ruck craft yet but is superior imo in all other aspects after the bounce which imo makes him more valuable to the team.
I’m ok with both in the line up as I can see his value in wearing ruckman down to enable TDK to have a period where he can influence the game which is great I just get very frustrated with Pitts lack of footy smarts when being too loose when dangerous rucks float forward and he is jogging 5 metres behind and can’t get to the contest.
Forget about hitouts, that includes ones that go to 50-50 contests and even to the opposition.
HTA was Pittonet 10, TDK 3.
FWIW Marshall also had 10.....even though he attented 19 more ruck contests and had 7 more hitouts than Pittonet, end result was same. 10 each to advantage.
Is that HTA a statistic that's even worth worrying about.
In Pittonet's case it's a little over 2 a quarter
In TDK's case a little under one a quarter.
After the first possession there's no guarantee where the ball ends up, so essentially, a play that has such limited impact on a game is pretty irrelevant.
Is that HTA a statistic that's even worth worrying about.
In Pittonet's case it's a little over 2 a quarter
In TDK's case a little under one a quarter.
After the first possession there's no guarantee where the ball ends up, so essentially, a play that has such limited impact on a game is pretty irrelevant.
Its worth worrying about more than hitouts is it not?
The way i think about it is like this. Its an oversimplification, but it holds true over time (even if individual contests don't always hold true)
There is a 50-50 contest Pittonet wins you that contest 20% of the time.
TDK about 9% of the time.
Marshall was halway inbetween at 14%.
57% of contests has no winner.
So from all the non-HTA contests (57%) you have a 50-50 battle from your mids that they must win. Lets say they win 50% of them only. So 28% is won by your midfield.
Overall, your rucks won you 29% of the contests and your mids won you 28% of the contests.
Again, its an oversimplification, but you can see how important getting that head-start is from the ruck.
Overall we have won half from ruck, half from mids.
Can you provide the complete stats of last weeks game of Marshall, Pitt and TDK?
While pits ruck craft is very good the game doesn’t end after the hit out.
While TDK doesn’t have Pitts ruck craft yet but is superior imo in all other aspects after the bounce which imo makes him more valuable to the team.
I’m ok with both in the line up as I can see his value in wearing ruckman down to enable TDK to have a period where he can influence the game which is great I just get very frustrated with Pitts lack of footy smarts when being too loose when dangerous rucks float forward and he is jogging 5 metres behind and can’t get to the contest.
I've summarised parts of it already. Its there for all to see on the AFL stats.
The TDK boosters always point to Pittonets shortcomings after the ruck contest, which is fair, but at the same time fail to acknowledge that TDKs numbers after the contest are nothing to write home about either.
About a month ago, TDK averaged 1 more disposal a game, and played 8% more game time. They were essentially averaging the same around the ground.
TDK gets more ball forward so his stats are a bit more skewed to marks on lead, inside 50's etc, but they are far from spectacular.
....which is why i continually bring up the fact that we can't carry 2 rucks who don't do enough around the ground.
Pittonet gets our mids first use 10% of the time more than TDK.
I've summarised parts of it already. Its there for all to see on the AFL stats.
The TDK boosters always point to Pittonets shortcomings after the ruck contest, which is fair, but at the same time fail to acknowledge that TDKs numbers after the contest are nothing to write home about either.
About a month ago, TDK averaged 1 more disposal a game, and played 8% more game time. They were essentially averaging the same around the ground.
TDK gets more ball forward so his stats are a bit more skewed to marks on lead, inside 50's etc, but they are far from spectacular.
....which is why i continually bring up the fact that we can't carry 2 rucks who don't do enough around the ground.
Pittonet gets our mids first use 10% of the time more than TDK.
..and conceding goals to his opponent and lack of scoreboard pressure the other way?
10% more than X when X was playing in another position doesn't make much sense.
Is that HTA a statistic that's even worth worrying about.
In Pittonet's case it's a little over 2 a quarter
In TDK's case a little under one a quarter.
After the first possession there's no guarantee where the ball ends up, so essentially, a play that has such limited impact on a game is pretty irrelevant.
That is an astute observation Lods, and one I’ve been meaning to comment on in another thread.
In short, hitouts generally are a very low frequency statistic and they do not influence results. If anything, hitouts sharked by the opposition is a more meaningful measure but that involves the opposition player as well the ruckman.
Believe it or not but there’s a PhD thesis on AFL statistics that I will reference when I get around to making my post. It’s an informative and enlightening read. 🤔
Its worth worrying about more than hitouts is it not?
The way i think about it is like this. Its an oversimplification, but it holds true over time (even if individual contests don't always hold true)
There is a 50-50 contest Pittonet wins you that contest 20% of the time.
TDK about 9% of the time.
Marshall was halway inbetween at 14%.
57% of contests has no winner.
So from all the non-HTA contests (57%) you have a 50-50 battle from your mids that they must win. Lets say they win 50% of them only. So 28% is won by your midfield.
Overall, your rucks won you 29% of the contests and your mids won you 28% of the contests.
Again, its an oversimplification, but you can see how important getting that head-start is from the ruck.
Overall we have won half from ruck, half from mids.
It clouds the picture a bit using percentages on such low numbers....makes it sound like a lot when actually it's not so many.
What I see you saying there though is that there are two aspects, one the ruck, the other the midfield.... but winning the hitout to advantage wouldn't always result in a clearance.
When you spoke to Champion data they gave you an explanation of the hitout to advantage.
I seem to remember that the response was that it goes to a team-mate who has 'time' to dispose of it.
Time is the key word there that needs clarification...because though you may have time it doesn't necessarily mean you win the contest.
On the weekend one of our ruckman won a clear hit out to one of our players who juggled it and then fumbled it....he had 'time' but lacked the execution.
Another instance would be if the player is tackled and caught with the ball, free kick against....again he has time, but not the skill to get it away...how is that adjudicated?
..and conceding goals to his opponent and lack of scoreboard pressure the other way?
10% more than X when X was playing in another position doesn't make much sense.
I should ignore this, but i'll try and educate you.
The 10% has literally nothing to do with the position they play or how many ruck contests they get too. Which is why i love this stat so much.
Think about it like shots on goal. If you kick a goal 60% of the time and someone else kicks it 50% of the time. You are 10% better shot on goal than the other bloke. That doesn't say how many shots on goal either are getting, but you know the first player is a better shot on goal than the second player. Clearly, you want to get the first player more shots on goal to capitalise on this advantage.
This is what that ruck statistic is showing. Pittonet will get the ball to an opponent from a ruck contest 10% of the time MORE than TDK will. This is true for the last game and this holds true over the course of the year and career. I've posted this on no less than a dozen occasions previously.
Our rucks are not worldbeaters so imho its not mainly about what they do in terms of possessions it how they put the brakes on the opposition and what the opposing rucks stats are and no game will be more important in displaying that than the one vs Melbourne this week who are more than likely to have both Gawn and Grundy in operation.
In this regard I see Pittonet as more valuable as he actually is in the team to do the grinding and work over the opposition leaving TDK to benefit from his work.
I should ignore this, but i'll try and educate you.
The 10% has literally nothing to do with the position they play or how many ruck contests they get too. Which is why i love this stat so much.
Think about it like shots on goal. If you kick a goal 60% of the time and someone else kicks it 50% of the time. You are 10% better shot on goal than the other bloke. That doesn't say how many shots on goal either are getting, but you know the first player is a better shot on goal than the second player. Clearly, you want to get the first player more shots on goal to capitalise on this advantage.
This is what that ruck statistic is showing. Pittonet will get the ball to an opponent from a ruck contest 10% of the time MORE than TDK will. This is true for the last game and this holds true over the course of the year and career. I've posted this on no less than a dozen occasions previously.
Educate me how crass.
TDK kicked 10% of goals that would mean everyone that didnt is no good according to your logic.
BTW according to official stats
https://aflratings.com.au/afl-centre-bounces/
Pitto had 72.7% of CBAs
TDK had 27.3% of CBAs
Thats over double of the time spent in the middle so one would assume Pitto would have more hitouts. 10% more HO to Advantage is such a nothng burger when they were playing in different positions.
Nothing against Pitto except he is not very good right now but the best we go so have to live with it.
It clouds the picture a bit using percentages on such low numbers....makes it sound like a lot when actually it's not so many.
What I see you saying there though is that there are two aspects, one the ruck, the other the midfield.... but winning the hitout to advantage wouldn't always result in a clearance.
When you spoke to Champion data they gave you an explanation of the hitout to advantage.
I seem to remember that the response was that it goes to a team-mate who has 'time' to dispose of it.
Time is the key word there that needs clarification...because though you may have time it doesn't necessarily mean you win the contest.
On the weekend one of our ruckman won a clear hit out to one of our players who juggled it and then fumbled it....he had 'time' but lacked the execution.
Another instance would be if the player is tackled and caught with the ball, free kick against....again he has time, but not the skill to get it away...how is that adjudicated?
As i said, its an oversimplification. You are right with the examples you show, but i said that in the post. Don't look at an indivdual contest, look at the big picture as it ultimately allows for everything you are saying.
You can get a hitout to advantage and lose the ball and vice versa.
You can shark a hitout and still turn it over.
You can get a clearance and turn it over.
Don't get bogged down in the minutia of each individual contest. It works both ways.
Think about it another way....
Why do we have disposal efficiency? To tell us how good we are disposing of the ball. That doesn't mean every disposal that hits a teammate does so with enough time for him to do anything with it. Or long balls to a 50-50 are actually any good (its deemed effective btw) Individually, there are instances where you can point the finger and so thats BS....and you'd be right.
Overall though, through the course of the match, its usually a fair indication.
The stat i provide is basically rucking efficiency. Individually, its not perfect. But over time its a very good indication. ;)
BTW according to official stats
https://aflratings.com.au/afl-centre-bounces/
Pitto had 72.7% of CBAs
TDK had 27.3% of CBAs
Thats over double of the time spent in the middle so one would assume Pitto would have more hitouts. 10% more HO to Advantage is such a nothng burger when they were playing in different positions.
Nothing against Pitto except he is not very good right now but the best we go so have to live with it.
Go back and read my posts would you. You are not actually reading them.
Be angry and upset at my educate comments all you like, but if the shoe fits, i'm trying to help you.
The stat i provide is not hitouts to advantage.
It is hitouts to advantage based on ruck contests attended.
Simply,
Pittonet attended 51 ruck contests. He had 10 hitouts to advantage - 19.6% of his ruck contests that he attended, he got a hitout to advantage. (This includes all the ones he lost, and ones he got a hitout but it wasn't to the teams advantage)
De Koning attended 33 ruck contests and got 3 hitouts to advantage - 9.1%.
So Pittonet is 10% more likely to get a hitout to advantage.
Make sense?
Also a ruck contest is not limited to centre bounces.
TDK kicked a goal out of nothing and helped set up another one out of nothing. He helped turn the game.
Go back and read my posts would you. You are not actually reading them.
Be angry and upset at my educate comments all you like, but if the shoe fits, i'm trying to help you.
The stat i provide is not hitouts to advantage.
It is hitouts to advantage based on ruck contests attended.
Simply,
Pittonet attended 51 ruck contests. He had 10 hitouts to advantage - 19.6% of his ruck contests that he attended, he got a hitout to advantage. (This includes all the ones he lost, and ones he got a hitout but it wasn't to the teams advantage)
De Koning attended 33 ruck contests and got 3 hitouts to advantage - 9.1%.
So Pittonet is 10% more likely to get a hitout to advantage.
Make sense?
Also a ruck contest is not limited to centre bounces.
No it doesn't how do you know the 18 less ruck contests were definitely not going to go to Advantage.
How do we know TDK wouldn't stop Marshall from kicking goals on him? Rucks go forward kick goals and defend.
Gawn, Marshall, English, Nankervis, Witts, Obrien, Jackson list goes on. Just have to defend and hit the scoreboard in AFL.
Oliver will play. Petty out for the season.
Go Blues
No it doesn't how do you know the 18 less ruck contests were definitely not going to go to Advantage.
How do we know TDK wouldn't stop Marshall from kicking goals on him? Rucks go forward kick goals and defend.
Gawn, Marshall, English, Nankervis, Witts, Obrien, Jackson list goes on. Just have to defend and hit the scoreboard in AFL.
He knows everything mate!
I've summarised parts of it already. Its there for all to see on the AFL stats.
The TDK boosters always point to Pittonets shortcomings after the ruck contest, which is fair, but at the same time fail to acknowledge that TDKs numbers after the contest are nothing to write home about either.
About a month ago, TDK averaged 1 more disposal a game, and played 8% more game time. They were essentially averaging the same around the ground.
TDK gets more ball forward so his stats are a bit more skewed to marks on lead, inside 50's etc, but they are far from spectacular.
....which is why i continually bring up the fact that we can't carry 2 rucks who don't do enough around the ground.
Pittonet gets our mids first use 10% of the time more than TDK.
So the king of stats all of sudden doesn't want to show stats!! I wonder why..... LOL
That says it all.
End of story
No it doesn't how do you know the 18 less ruck contests were definitely not going to go to Advantage.
How do we know TDK wouldn't stop Marshall from kicking goals on him? Rucks go forward kick goals and defend.
Gawn, Marshall, English, Nankervis, Witts, Obrien, Jackson list goes on. Just have to defend and hit the scoreboard in AFL.
OK, you've demonstrated, twice, that you don't understand %'s and anything i've written.
I'm done trying to educate you.
So the king of stats all of sudden doesn't want to show stats!! I wonder why..... LOL
That says it all.
End of story
This reply says it all.
How many times do i need to show stats? Any danger you could read them??
Your mate has already proven that he doesn't understand them. You can't find them.
...and i'm the problem? ::)
I can't believe we are still discussing this whilst Harry and jsos are both unavailable.
I can't believe we are still discussing this whilst Harry and jsos are both unavailable.
I don't know either.
This reply says it all.
How many times do i need to show stats? Any danger you could read them??
Your mate has already proven that he doesn't understand them. You can't find them.
...and i'm the problem? ::)
Spin spin spin. Why don’t you want to list them - you love posting never ending posts and now all of a sudden you can’t be bothered. Lol
Pit is a back up to TDK and that’s all he will ever be and the market interest and offers fielded supported that.
We get it you think he is under valued and that’s fine we all have players we like more then others for whatever reason but try and stop making out like everyone on here is a goose cause they don’t buy your way of looking at it.
Good night
Spin spin spin. Why don’t you want to list them - you love posting never ending posts and now all of a sudden you can’t be bothered. Lol
Pit is a back up to TDK and that’s all he will ever be and the market interest and offers fielded supported that.
We get it you think he is under valued and that’s fine we all have players we like more then others for whatever reason but try and stop making out like everyone on here is a goose cause they don’t buy your way of looking at it.
Good night
You can have an opinion. Yours if different to mine. These forums are for that very reason.
If you want to have a reasoned debate, be my guest.
But i am not here to dance for you, and i'm not interested in posts that say little more than...."My faVor1te is BeTr cuz I sez So"
You don't have to buy my way of looking at it.
But when people can't understand basic mathematics and try and debate, then sorry, but they are a goose.
I don't make up the stats. The stats are there for all to see. I've provided some on multiple occassions throughout this thread and nobody else has bothered.....apart from 1 effort which didn't actually understand what they were posting because its not what they thought.
So good night indeed.
Here we go...
AFL
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4959#player-stats
click on the 'advanced' stats for things like score involvement, inside 50s, disposal efficiency
AFL TABLES
https://www.afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2023/031520230806.html
FOOTYWIRE COMPARISON
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=4&playerStatus2=A&tid2=4&type=A&pid1=6504&pid2=4077&fid1=S&fid2=S
PITTONET-PROFILE
https://www.afl.com.au/stats/players?playerId=CD_I298290
DE KONING PROFILE
https://www.afl.com.au/stats/players?playerId=CD_I1004912
Here we go...
AFL
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4959#player-stats
click on the 'advanced' stats for things like score involvement, inside 50s, disposal efficiency
If you wanna know how i get my stats, its from the above.
Click on the my stats tab and include whatever you want. I include a range of things, but ruck contests and hitouts to advantage are on there and thats how i work out the RC-HTA% for each game.
TDK and Pitto have played the same amount of games but TDK has had roughly 50% more tackles and 30% more possessions
TDK is getting to the ball more often (Football IQ) and having a greater impact. Pitto right now the way he is playing is a crab and belongs in the back up crew with Fisher, Dow and some others...and should be nothing wrong with that.
Also for people who believe in omens, I left Melbourne on June 17 (the day before the Gold Coast game) and am currently sitting in an airport on our way home from Europe.
Also for people who believe in omens, I left Melbourne on June 17 (the day before the Gold Coast game) and am currently sitting in an airport on our way home from Europe.
Do you think you could extend your holiday by another 8 weeks? :D
Do it for the team!
Also for people who believe in omens, I left Melbourne on June 17 (the day before the Gold Coast game) and am currently sitting in an airport on our way home from Europe.
I haven't trimmed my beard since the 16th June. I normally keep it to a 1 to 2 week growth but when we won 2 in a row I thought I might be onto something.
Also for people who believe in omens, I left Melbourne on June 17 (the day before the Gold Coast game) and am currently sitting in an airport on our way home from Europe.
3 Leos... divert to the US. Amazing 8 week holidays on offer there. :)) :))
I haven't washed my right hand since shaking Alex Jesaulenko's hand Round 11, 1989...but that has nothing to do with our winning games...that's just bragging. :D
I haven't washed my right hand since shaking Alex Jesaulenko's hand Round 11, 1989...but that has nothing to do with our winning games...that's just bragging. :D
Lucky you didn't hug him.
Thry....in as polite a way as possible.....stay the f#ck away!! :))
Also for people who believe in omens, I left Melbourne on June 17 (the day before the Gold Coast game) and am currently sitting in an airport on our way home from Europe.
Hmmmmmm, sure you don't want to catch a cruise back instead?
I think the best we can do is Boyd for Ed, the cupboard is bare. Whether Boyd is straight in for Dow or Fog remains to be seen.
or/and
Does Young or Sam Durdin come in to help combat their talls? Marchy out for one of them?
I hope Kemp gets up. We CANNOT afford more injuries.
Fogarty can't go out. His pressure is what turned our season around.
It will probably be Ed or Hollands that drops back to the VFL.
As much as Hollands can run and run, the Dees are a different proposition in both run and body composition to the Aints, and the Aints were already physically dominant.
Our club has to play the long game with Hollands, we can't pulverise him early in his career like we did sMurph.
Our club has to play the long game with Hollands, we can't pulverise him early in his career like we did sMurph.
Agree
I don't think we'll drop him for this game...but he does need to be carefully managed while he builds some size and strength.
One of the big differences is that Murphy received little support from team-mates
Teams that come at Hollands will have a different group of Carlton players to deal with.
Not sure where to post this.
Interesting well written article on Charlie Curnow
Behind Carlton spearhead Charlie Curnow's push for a second straight Coleman Medal
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-10/carlton-spearhead-charlie-curnow-push-for-second-coleman-medal/102706112
Not sure where to post this.
Interesting well written article on Charlie Curnow
Behind Carlton spearhead Charlie Curnow's push for a second straight Coleman Medal
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-10/carlton-spearhead-charlie-curnow-push-for-second-coleman-medal/102706112
Very good article with interesting data and analysis - is the ABC becoming the best mainstream sports reporting media outlet?
Very good article with interesting data and analysis - is the ABC becoming the best mainstream sports reporting media outlet?
OK article, don't agree with this opening assertion;
"Many whispered about his future, and whether he'd be the same player he was."
Most important technical info from that article is the Walsh data point, that's all about decision making and awareness, a player who isn't obsessed with the goals.
In terms of Charlie versus McKay, the stats ignore the changes in role, Harry gets a lot more up the field this season providing us with that contested marking option coming out of D50. I'd assert that is why his F50 stats are down, and not so much about us favouring Charlie.
Very good article with interesting data and analysis - is the ABC becoming the best mainstream sports reporting media outlet?
The ABC always has been in my lifetime … with the possible exception of the Sporting Globe back in the day.
Hard to see who Boyd might displace this week. Ed might be the logical choice but it's hardly a like for like. Boyd was being used off half back and that's where Fisher slotted in last week. Dow did enough to retain his spot and Hollands was very good in his first game back. The backline seems reasonably settled, albeit missing McGovern.
I think someone posted earlier in the week that Kemp was just cramp last weekend, not a hamstring....haven't seen anything written in terms of an injury?
Well done to Kemp and Motlop. Both nominated for U22's
OK article, don't agree with this opening assertion;
"Many whispered about his future, and whether he'd be the same player he was."
I'll put my hand up as one who thought he would never get back to an elite level. I always thought he was a knock away from shattering that knee cap for good. Thankfully I was wrong, long may he remain elite.
Charlie is getting better and better hard to see where his ceiling is going to be.
His marking, leading, goal assists, smarts in the contest, ground ball goals he is the quintessential modern complete forward that only Kouta could envy.
Charlie is getting better and better hard to see where his ceiling is going to be.
His marking, leading, goal assists, smarts in the contest, ground ball goals he is the quintessential modern complete forward that only Kouta could envy.
Re his marking, whilst he is a strong contested mark, I doubt we will ever see him sitting on anyones head anytime soon (like we started to see pre knee injury).
GTC....he took a nice big hanger against WCE over here earlier in the year sitting on Hurn's head.
I love the way he wheels and goes and kicks low and hard and accurate, but noticed in the last few weeks he's butchered a few of those here and there.
OK article, don't agree with this opening assertion;
"Many whispered about his future, and whether he'd be the same player he was."
Most important technical info from that article is the Walsh data point, that's all about decision making and awareness, a player who isn't obsessed with the goals.
In terms of Charlie versus McKay, the stats ignore the changes in role, Harry gets a lot more up the field this season providing us with that contested marking option coming out of D50. I'd assert that is why his F50 stats are down, and not so much about us favouring Charlie.
Chicken and egg.
I think he was pushed away from goals because he was abysmal in front of them.....and in general.
Remember i was in favour of giving him a rest and playing TDK in his place.
....think about that.....coming from me.
Competition for spots is heating up.. Boyd not making it in 22 is bad luck for him to be rubbed out on a great hard tackle and Fish will need to be on his toes with repeat performances. This is a very good thing.
Blues go in unchanged for the first time in 3yrs.
Dees add Grundy and Oliver. Handy additions.
Our spiritual leader Doc plays his 150th. What a phenomenal achievement 👏🏼
We've had a knack of winning milestone matches of late. I jokingly said we need to have them each of the remaining weeks, and we have 😆
None more impressive than Doc's 150th.
#doitfordoc
Go Blues
Blues go in unchanged for the first time in 3yrs.
Dees add Grundy and Oliver. Handy additions.
Our spiritual leader Doc plays his 150th. What a phenomenal achievement 👏🏼
We've had a knack of winning milestone matches of late. I jokingly said we need to have them each of the remaining weeks, and we have 😆
None more impressive than Doc's 150th.
#doitfordoc
Go Blues
Docherty absolutely is the spiritual leader IMO, but he played his 150th a couple of months back, against the Lions.
Those ins for Melbourne are interesting. Curious to see if they've ironed out the kinks with Gawn/Grundy, and curious to see if Oliver is underdone.
Docherty absolutely is the spiritual leader IMO, but he played his 150th a couple of months back, against the Lions.
Those ins for Melbourne are interesting. Curious to see if they've ironed out the kinks with Gawn/Grundy, and curious to see if Oliver is underdone.
150th CARLTON game.
150th CARLTON game.
Thankyou. My omission.
Docherty absolutely is the spiritual leader IMO, but he played his 150th a couple of months back, against the Lions.
Those ins for Melbourne are interesting. Curious to see if they've ironed out the kinks with Gawn/Grundy, and curious to see if Oliver is underdone.
I'd imagine most of us are hoping there are kinks everywhere. If there are, let's be ready to take full advantage.
150th CARLTON game.
Thankyou. My omission.
Ah right. Got it.
Competition for spots is heating up.. Boyd not making it in 22 is bad luck for him to be rubbed out on a great hard tackle and Fish will need to be on his toes with repeat performances. This is a very good thing.
No change, interesting.
Wasn't Boyd supposed to be 'straight in'?
Is he the sub?
Blues go in unchanged for the first time in 3yrs.
Dees add Grundy and Oliver. Handy additions.
Our spiritual leader Doc plays his 150th. What a phenomenal achievement 👏🏼
We've had a knack of winning milestone matches of late. I jokingly said we need to have them each of the remaining weeks, and we have 😆
None more impressive than Doc's 150th.
#doitfordoc
Go Blues
I wonder if S Durds as an emergency is cover for Kemp (if he doesn't get up).
I wonder if S Durds as an emergency is cover for Kemp (if he doesn't get up).
Kemp had cramp. I don’t think that will keep him out.
Big Durds was an emergency last week too.
Kemp had cramp. I don’t think that will keep him out.
Big Durds was an emergency last week too.
Righto then, I didn't realise it was cramp, I thought it was a low grade hammy.
Righto then, I didn't realise it was cramp, I thought it was a low grade hammy.
It was reported as cramp at the time and it wasn’t iced.
Kemp’s not on this week’s injury list … not that that means much.
Van Rooyen will be permanent forward with Gawn/Grundy rotating. Marchy might have his work cut out this week....unless he goes to Van Rooyen and Weitering minds the rucks? Hopefully TDK and Pitto can push back at times.
Would love Cerra and Walsh in there this week but reckon we've got enough to go with them.
Righto then, I didn't realise it was cramp, I thought it was a low grade hammy.
I thought I heard tv commentators say he looked to clutch high hammy. It was BT iirc. Could be anything really or nothing. Good sign that he hasn't been added to the injury list 🤞
I thought I heard tv commentators say he looked to clutch high hammy. It was BT iirc. Could be anything really or nothing. Good sign that he hasn't been added to the injury list 🤞
I thought I heard the same
You both heard right. 3:43 left to play. That comment was made by Chris Johnson.
You both heard right. 3:43 left to play. That comment was made by Chris Johnson.
Reassuring to know we're not losing the plot! Not on this occasion at least 😜
Doc plays his 150 game. In the past these milestone games didn’t go well for us. This season has been a different story for us. Can the club carry their best leader over the line? Demons with debated selections. Fritsch, Harmes, Oliver and probably not the best form to carry through to the finals race. We come in with an unchanged list. Probably the best form we have had all season. Are we due for a loss? We get closer to a loss every win we get on the board. I am thinking at a guess we will fall short by only 2 goals. I hope we are ultra competitive. If our intensity, drive for success and high risk high reward football is in the mindset, then anything is possible. Melbourne is a very difficult side to beat. Their current form doesn’t state it is impossible to win. Is this game more about how desperate to prove a point this Blues unit has before them, than which players are available to hit the field? This could be the most important game of the round. It could be the game that is the real measure of where our club is at. With a list of injuries that is no less than other clubs have. I am not sure what our win loss ratio is against Melbourne in the last 5 seasons. It definitely couldn’t be great.
Doc plays his 150 game. In the past these milestone games didn’t go well for us. This season has been a different story for us. Can the club carry their best leader over the line? Demons with debated selections. Fritsch, Harmes, Oliver and probably not the best form to carry through to the finals race. We come in with an unchanged list. Probably the best form we have had all season. Are we due for a loss? We get closer to a loss every win we get on the board. I am thinking at a guess we will fall short by only 2 goals. I hope we are ultra competitive. If our intensity, drive for success and high risk high reward football is in the mindset, then anything is possible. Melbourne is a very difficult side to beat. Their current form doesn’t state it is impossible to win. Is this game more about how desperate to prove a point this Blues unit has before them, than which players are available to hit the field? This could be the most important game of the round. It could be the game that is the real measure of where our club is at. With a list of injuries that is no less than other clubs have. I am not sure what our win loss ratio is against Melbourne in the last 5 seasons. It definitely couldn’t be great.
Last 5 - LLLLL
Last 20- LLWWWWWWWLWWLLLLLLLL
Haven't beaten them in our last 8 outings so yeah, not great.
You both heard right. 3:43 left to play. That comment was made by Chris Johnson.
Yes Chris said that Kemp came off clutching his hammy and the physios were working on him. Physios don’t ‘work’ on an injured hamstring, they apply ice. Kemp joined the players on the ground after the siren and his hammy wasn’t iced.
The ABC said that Kemp had cramp and I think that SEN said the same.
It’s poor that 7 didn’t clarify Kemp’s condition. Vossy wasn’t asked about it during his presser so I imagine that the media scrum knew that Kemp was fine.
I notice Barrett piling on the pressure on young TDK, demanding he defeats Grundy to prove himself, what a stupid statement.
I've no idea what TDK has done to get this sort of attention, but he cops plenty while his brother passes by unnoticed.
If our combo can get a 50-50 or even a 40-60 loss against Grundy it's a huge achievement, and it might be enough for us to win!
He took Gawn and Grundy both on by himself last time we played them and wasn't disgraced.
To be honest, given our outs, a win here would be the biggest bonus of the season.
Have to play TDK forward as much as possible, or May/Lever will squeeze the life out of Charlie (which is what Battle and Wilkie did last week).
I don't think the clearances will be as lop-sided as they were last week, and I fear we may not have the capacity to kick a winning score if that's the case.
Fingers crossed......
In recent games it's been Harry that gave us the F50 focus against the Dees, but Martin also starred late last season when despite losing we had a spread of goals. Hibberd and Harmes aren't in and they usually bully our smalls.
In recent times we tended to only have Pitto or TDK, this time we hopefully have both for a full game!
Personally, this game is won or lost in the middle, if it gets quickly into and stays in either end too much that team will win.
I'm guessing these two sides are going to knock the stuffing out of each other.
It may be a war of attrition that leaves both sides a bit tired and sore for a week or two.
That would add an extra importance to getting the win.
If TDK had taken a huge offer from a Sydney, and not re-signed with us, then yeah, apply the pressure. But he's stayed on an amount that's probably less than he could've got elsewhere. Barrett is a flog at times and makes sensational comments and predictions, most of which don't come true anyway.
If TDK had taken a huge offer from a Sydney, and not re-signed with us, then yeah, apply the pressure. But he's stayed on an amount that's probably less than he could've got elsewhere. Barrett is a flog at times and makes sensational comments and predictions, most of which don't come true anyway.
You're better than me if you can explain why TDK attracts this sort of attention.
Is it because in some circles there are perceptions for Carlton going forward it's either TDK or SoJ? That might explain things as it would be the result of whispers circulating in the old Old Boys network. I wouldn't exclude some of this being stirred up by the likes of SOS or Dodo!
Ironically, I suspect the player in the cross hairs at the moment is most likely Young, I think there is little he can offer us that isn't provided by the others in and around the list who have wider capabilities!
My major concern tomorrow night is that in terms of front line troops we see that Cripps and Charlie are largely unsupported as the moment. Against the Filth I thought we were able to leverage the light weight of Daicos twins and the smaller bodies supporting Pendles and De Goey. Last week I was quite surprised we had such dominance after 1/2-time, because the Aints were physically bigger than us.
This week with Oliver back the Dees are a different category of opponent, their weakest link is probably either Brayshaw or Viney and I don't see either of them as weak at all!
Who will Viney try to clean up, usually it's Hibberd, Harmes or Melksham who trying to bully us, but I think it's down to Viney this week?
btw., I notice Josh Schache listed in emergencies, what a wasted talent. I remember back at the time a lot of people wanted us to take Schache ahead of Weiters, and claimed Harry and Charlie were high risk. I must admit the rumour mill had me doubting Charlie! :o
Agree, we've had our struggles against bigger bodies / bullies. I think we're starting to minimise that issue when we bring our own pressure. This has been applied well of late. The lightweight I worry about is young Ollie. His ferocious competitive appetite and stamina puts him right in it. Repeatedly. V Pies, he was applying that pressure. He then realised it was angry man Maynard. His reaction appeared to gesture "oops sorry - my bad"
As many have pointed out, we're at our best when we're the hunters. If and when we bring and sustain that type of pressure and win the contest, we're a difficult side to beat.
Some of that has developed since the machine finally clicked q2 v GC. We went from being 2nd to the ball to owning and wrestling back the ball. Walsh out of the centre was sublime.
Whether that’s sustainable, particularly given our constant need to change personal due to injuries, is about to reveal itself. A couple of goals from Dow clearances, and a big game from Martin and Cunners would be a good start. It'll be fascinating to see if Dow can perform against the strong Dees engine room.
Oh and please don't give Pickett an inch. ? Cue Newman?
Go Blues
Agree, we've had our struggles against bigger bodies / bullies. I think we're starting to minimise that issue when we bring our own pressure. This has been applied well of late. The lightweight I worry about is young Ollie. His ferocious competitive appetite and stamina puts him right in it. Repeatedly. V Pies, he was applying that pressure. He then realised it was angry man Maynard. His reaction appeared to gesture "oops sorry - my bad"
As many have pointed out, we're at our best when we're the hunters. If and when we bring and sustain that type of pressure and win the contest, we're a difficult side to beat.
Some of that has developed since the machine finally clicked q2 v GC. We went from being 2nd to the ball to owning and wrestling back the ball. Walsh out of the centre was sublime.
Whether that’s sustainable, particularly given our constant need to change personal due to injuries, is about to reveal itself. A couple of goals from Dow clearances, and a big game from Martin and Cunners would be a good start. It'll be fascinating to see if Dow can perform against the strong Dees engine room.
Oh and please don't give Pickett an inch. ? Cue Newman?
Go Blues
Spot on LN, we need to be at our hunting best to be chance against Melb.
LP....Charlie is unsupported as you say, but last 6-7 weeks, what has really stood out is the spread of goalkicking and the impact guys like Jack Martin, Fogarty and Cunningham have had, as well as Moltop and Owies when he came back in. They've applied the pressure and hit the scoreboard most weeks so hopefully no reason why that can't continue on the weekend.
I'll back Hollands in. There wasn't any issues with us throwing him into it in Round 1 in a huge game against Richmond at the MCG and he handled himself pretty well.
LP....Charlie is unsupported as you say, but last 6-7 weeks, what has really stood out is the spread of goalkicking and the impact guys like Jack Martin, Fogarty and Cunningham have had, as well as Moltop and Owies when he came back in. They've applied the pressure and hit the scoreboard most weeks so hopefully no reason why that can't continue on the weekend.
I'll back Hollands in. There wasn't any issues with us throwing him into it in Round 1 in a huge game against Richmond at the MCG and he handled himself pretty well.
I like your faith in the squad, but if we go to Charlie so predictably this week, he'll be at the mercy of May and Lever and there won't be many crumbing opportunities.
You wouldn't put it past May to have it in his head to take the wind out of Charlie's sails before the finals, ............ given the opportunity just perform a little confidence adjustment!
I like your faith in the squad, but if we go to Charlie so predictably this week, he'll be at the mercy of May and Lever and there won't be many crumbing opportunities.
You wouldn't put it past May to have it in his head to take the wind out of Charlie's sails before the finals, ............ given the opportunity just perform a little confidence adjustment!
This game will be a good test for a variety of reasons.
Firstly, the most celebrated rucks in the game vs 2 blokes cop their fair share of flak.
Secondly, the importance of having TDK play forward (out of necessity) could win us the game or lose us the game. I'm excited to see which.
Let me explain...
Obviously the ruck thing is self explanatory so i'll skip to point 2.
TDK winning or losing us the game is down to this.
Either he performs to a suitable level and requires someone like May to stand him for the entire game, freeing up Charlie to be more 1 on 1 (basically what we are hoping for)
or
TDK is largely useless up forward, we play into their hands and Charlie gets double teamed anyway, but we have 1 less effective forward to help him out.
By playing TDK, we are actually giving someone for May/Lever to play on in tandem with Charlie.
If TDK wasn't there, their backline could be too top heavy and May/Lever would be forced to play on a small.....who they wouldn't be able to keep up with.
It reminds me of Setanta and his (3) little helpers. Teams couldn't match up on Walker, Betts and Garlett when Setanta was the only key forward. They were usually too tall, and trying to play their 2nd tall on Walker (a 190cm highflying, agile, fast/hard running medium type) meant they were beaten in one or more of those areas. If they put their best medium/small defender on Walker, one of the other 2 would have a day out. They each had 48, 50 and 56 goals with that smaller/unconventional forward setup.
It could work for us this week, but we may never know.
May and Lever usually play as intercepting defenders rather than lockdown defenders and Petty has usually taken the best KP forward until his move to the forward line and is now out injured.
I think they are vulnerable especially May who isnt quick and if he lines up on Charlie I reckon our man will take the points if he moves around and leads up the ground. Im also expecting them to start with Van Rooyen and Grundy on the ground together down forward hoping to get a size mismatch and at worst have the ball on the deck for their smalls who have been playing well.
With Oliver back they may be tempted to play Petracca down forward more often which I dont mind, I think Melbourne are at their most dangerous when they have Oliver and Petracca together in the middle.
Pickett, Chandler, Melksham and Petracca is a slippery forward quartet who have been doing well in recent weeks and I see this setup as more of a challenge than the ruck duels.
Blues by 7 points but this will be a difficult game and its shame Oliver and Grundy have returned this week as both will want to prove a point and while Oliver has been out for a while and should be rusty I think he will prove otherwise and be a nuisance but hopefully run out of gas late in the game.
So we offered to put the Matildas on the screen but FIFA are saying if we put it on we have to keep it on during our match if it goes to extra time? Yeah Nah.
May and Lever usually play as intercepting defenders rather than lockdown defenders and Petty has usually taken the best KP forward until his move to the forward line and is now out injured.
I think they are vulnerable especially May who isnt quick and if he lines up on Charlie I reckon our man will take the points if he moves around and leads up the ground. Im also expecting them to start with Van Rooyen and Grundy on the ground together down forward hoping to get a size mismatch and at worst have the ball on the deck for their smalls who have been playing well.
With Oliver back they may be tempted to play Petracca down forward more often which I dont mind, I think Melbourne are at their most dangerous when they have Oliver and Petracca together in the middle.
Pickett, Chandler, Melksham and Petracca is a slippery forward quartet who have been doing well in recent weeks and I see this setup as more of a challenge than the ruck duels.
Blues by 7 points but this will be a difficult game and its shame Oliver and Grundy have returned this week as both will want to prove a point and while Oliver has been out for a while and should be rusty I think he will prove otherwise and be a nuisance but hopefully run out of gas late in the game.
That was the point though, with Petty out, they will need to lockdown on an opponent. Are we giving them an 'easy kill' by allowing May to play on TDK, and still being able to sag off and help out lever on Charlie?
Who would May play on if TDK wasn't there?
Im probably going to regret saying this but I prefer Boyd back in the team down back than Fisher, doesnt mean Fisher cant stay in the 22/3 if his form deserves it but playing the loose half back role is about the easiest job going and id rather a specialist defender first than another rebounder only and while no huge fan of Boyd I think he has more idea defensively than Fisher.
Fisher is playing the McGovern role. Kicker out of defence
In most games that I have watched May takes the best forward.
Fisher is playing the McGovern role. Kicker out of defence
McGovern played on Elliott 2 weeks ago, he is a legit defender. Fisher not so much.
That was the point though, with Petty out, they will need to lockdown on an opponent. Are we giving them an 'easy kill' by allowing May to play on TDK, and still being able to sag off and help out lever on Charlie?
Who would May play on if TDK wasn't there?
If they use TDK in that forward role it will probably be with instructions to draw his opponent far away from Charlie.
But that will also rely on Tom creating a semblance of a contest that means he has to be watched.
The strength of our forward line has been its variety and it might be that a player like Jack Martin causes them a few concerns.
Watched the highlights of last time we played them. May played on Charlie and Tomlinson played on Harry.
That was the point though, with Petty out, they will need to lockdown on an opponent. Are we giving them an 'easy kill' by allowing May to play on TDK, and still being able to sag off and help out lever on Charlie?
Who would May play on if TDK wasn't there?
As MBB pointed out I think May will play on Charlie and that will leave Lever to handle the remaining talls ie TDK.
May I think is first choice on any taller KP player and if TDK wasnt down forward I think Lever would be the one to play on a smaller marking forward but from what I have watched of Melbourne in recent weeks I think their new kid McVee will take Martin who is probably the next best marking target after Charlie if TDK is off the ground or rucking. I dont expect Pittonet to spend much time forward in a resting role and would see him as our starting ruckman who will do most of the work early then give way to TDK later in the game unless we are getting smacked badly in the ruck and have to move TDK in there for more early minutes.
Good opportunity for our small forwards to have a massive impact on this game. Charlie has been great but the introduction of Fogarty, Cunners and Martin has completely changed how this team has been performing.
Fisher is playing the McGovern role. Kicker out of defence
Fishers role as that loose rebounding half back will need to be looked at closely this week, Melbournes smaller/mid sized forwards are not the type of players you can play off kick chasing and expect your teammates to cover all the time. The other defenders are going to have their hands full and it will be interesting who they choose for Fisher to play on. I expect Saad to be tagged as has become the norm and other players like Newman to be given the responsibility of players like Petracca and Pickett so Fisher might be tested on his ability to defend a bit more one on one this game with less help.
As MBB pointed out I think May will play on Charlie and that will leave Lever to handle the remaining talls ie TDK.
May I think is first choice on any taller KP player and if TDK wasnt down forward I think Lever would be the one to play on a smaller marking forward but from what I have watched of Melbourne in recent weeks I think their new kid McVee will take Martin who is probably the next best marking target after Charlie if TDK is off the ground or rucking. I dont expect Pittonet to spend much time forward in a resting role and would see him as our starting ruckman who will do most of the work early then give way to TDK later in the game unless we are getting smacked badly in the ruck and have to move TDK in there for more early minutes.
Tomlinson isn't tall enough for TDK
and
May isn't fir enough to stick with Charlie.
If that is the plan from the Dees, i'd park TDK in the goal square and tell him not to move.
I'd have Charlie playing up around the wing running up and back and blowing May up.
By the end of the game, we can switch Charlie deep forward and May will be too stuffed to stay with him.
In the meantime, bomb it on TDKs head if he takes it, good, if not, small forwards galore.
Wet conditions, will slow the game up with more stoppages, should favour us.
I don't see Tomlinson in Dees side