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1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by DJC -
The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.

One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50.   Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.

Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target.  We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by northernblue -
Krudds,

“  49   -   43   -  73  - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)”

Is this the % of times these 3 are the target and we get a shot on goal as a result ?
If so, I’d read that as no one crumbing Charlie and H ‘cause they don’t drop many but they are roving to TDK because he seems to spill most of his chances ?
3
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: Thryleon on
odds are in 6 months it will all be over.  

Avian flu generally doesn’t last too long.  It’s a lot easier to limit the transmission of a virus when you can eliminate the birds and animals that are infected or are at risk of infection.  Over 400,000 chooks have already been slaughtered.

Hopefully, it won’t spread to our dairy herds.  Apart from the loss of milk production, avian flu is more likely to infect humans from other mammalian hosts.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by LP -
It's not really feasible to make conclusions about the absence of presence of SoJ or Martin unless the same analysis is done when they were available, and in context the circumstance is not the same season to season, so I doubt it holds much relevance.

Interesting that our current Top 3 are last years Top 3, Owies 3rd again, yet fans want Owies dropped. The thing we are missing so far this season are the other medium small forwards in Motlop and Martin who were 4th and 5th in 2023. In 2024 Cottrell and TDK are 4th and 5th.

I'm not sure the accuracy stats mean much, Charlie has quite a few goals from Joe the Goose type scores roving the back of the pack, I've already discussed that in another thread. Both Harry and Charlie have missed goals from almost point blank, and from shots near the point of the 50m, so the mix of who gets shots where would be important. The media hysteria colours fan perceptions, but I can't say Charlie is much more reliable than Harry in the moment.

The complete miss itself isn't a value stat, because it records no context.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / VFL Rd 9 2024 Carlton vs Gold Coast at Carlton
Last post by crashlander -
We went up one spot even though we lost last week.  >:D
This week we play Gold Coast who are a shadow of what they were last year. However, they should have a LOT more talent on the park than we can manage.

The game is at Carlton on Saturday morning at 10:25.

I really hope Motlop plays: if he does OK, then he'll be in the 1's next week replacing Fantasia.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Gold Coast
Last post by crashlander -
Our line-up:

B:  [42] Adam Saad,  [23] Jacob Weitering,  [2] Lachlan Cowan
HB:  [17] Brodie Kemp,  [11] Mitch McGovern,  [24] Nic Newman
C:  [4] Oliver Hollands,  [9] Patrick Cripps,  [13] Blake Acres
HF:  [6] Zac Williams,  [10] Harry McKay,  [20] Elijah Hollands
F:  [14] Orazio Fantasia,  [30] Charlie Curnow,  [44] Matthew Owies
R:  [12] Tom De Koning,  [18] Sam Walsh,  [7] Matthew Kennedy
Int:  [37] Jordan Boyd,  [29] George Hewett,  [39] Alex Cincotta,  [8] Lachie Fogarty,  [16] Jack Carroll

Em: [19] Corey Durdin,  [33] Lewis Young,  [25] Jaxon Binns

In:  Adam Saad,  Lachlan Cowan,  Lachie Fogarty
Out:  Corey Durdin (Omitted),  Marc Pittonet (Injured),  Caleb Marchbank (Managed)

[1] We will miss Pittonet, who usually plays well against Witts. Tom has a very poor record against Witts and has always played to his weaknesses against him. If he plays to his strengths and moves Witts around ...
Still, I see this is a major danger.

[2] Saad, Cowan and Fogarty in is good for us. Saad defends and attacks. Fogarty keeps the ball in our forward half and provides opportunities for his team mates. Cowan played well last week in the 2's: I'd be thinking of using his in the middle.

[3] GC's strength is their midfield. If we can keep them under control, we should do well. But we should match up carefully.

[4] How Fantasia still gets games amazes me. Corey Durdin was good against Melbourne, but has been too quiet too often. How is he not better than Fantasia though? Fantasia has 1 goal in the seniors for the year and hasn't looked dangerous.

[5] Marchbank - he has to be a worry. If he can't play 3 weeks in a row, then he is done.

[6] Olli Hollands was brilliant against Melbourne for 3 quarters, but that's been it. He needs to stand up this round.