Carlton Supporters Club

Princes Park => Robert Heatley Stand => Topic started by: crashlander on April 20, 2024, 10:03:04 pm

Title: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: crashlander on April 20, 2024, 10:03:04 pm
Another 16:35 game, which is a pain. Such is life.
Geelong look like they're going to be inbeaten into the game while we still have real injury issues.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: WASurfer on April 21, 2024, 01:17:35 pm
Tom Stewart a possible out for them with concussion?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Mantis on April 21, 2024, 02:53:05 pm
Geelong find a way to control the game and playing it on their terms when it is most needed. I hope our injuries aren’t the difference in this contest. Would be great if we could snatch a win. Geelong are the benchmark at the moment. If we had Cerra, Saad and Gov in I would have some confidence. Without them it doesn’t look likely that we will win this one.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Thryleon on April 21, 2024, 02:54:00 pm
Tom Stewart a possible out for them with concussion?
change that to definite out.

He will miss under protocols.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 21, 2024, 03:51:25 pm
Geelong find a way to control the game and playing it on their terms when it is most needed. I hope our injuries aren’t the difference in this contest. Would be great if we could snatch a win. Geelong are the benchmark at the moment. If we had Cerra, Saad and Gov in I would have some confidence. Without them it doesn’t look likely that we will win this one.
We need to find a way, like we did yesterday. Its on the MCG which is our best deck I reckon. Be the hunter again and we will win.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 21, 2024, 05:23:38 pm
We need to find a way, like we did yesterday. Its on the MCG which is our best deck I reckon. Be the hunter again and we will win.
Charlie and Harry vs Hawkins and Cameron.....who gets the best supply wins, reckon our midfield is better...
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Blue Moon on April 21, 2024, 06:12:39 pm
Geelong has had just about a full list to choose from this year. Last year they had injuries and missed the finals. Their forward line is very good.  A lot of variety plus some guns. The backline is tough and disciplined but I think we can get hold of them. Their midfield shuts down their opponents. If they break even then they usually win. Carlton has become a side that should win these sorts of games.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 21, 2024, 06:37:49 pm
Geelong has had just about a full list to choose from this year. Last year they had injuries and missed the finals. Their forward line is very good.  A lot of variety plus some guns. The backline is tough and disciplined but I think we can get hold of them. Their midfield shuts down their opponents. If they break even then they usually win. Carlton has become a side that should win these sorts of games.
As a supporter, I no longer fear any opposition. Our best (even with injuries) is good enough to beat anyone, especially at the G. The Cats will need to be at their best to knock us off, as will we to do the same to them.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Thryleon on April 21, 2024, 09:27:18 pm
Yep it's a strange feeling.  Doesn't feel real but we can beat anyone.

We are in the window.  Its not a false dawn.  It's here people.  You need a bit of luck but as we get more players fit and firing towards the back end of the season will dictate how well we go and even then we could potentially still win it.

Anyone anywhere anytime.   #blueflaggers!!!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: pinot on April 21, 2024, 09:37:23 pm
If we bring our brutal best which is off the AFLO charts then we have a chance and a good one at that. Hopefully Cerra is available for this one.

Cincotta + Cerra for ins?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LoveNavy on April 21, 2024, 09:53:30 pm
Yep it's a strange feeling.  Doesn't feel real but we can beat anyone.

We are in the window.  Its not a false dawn.  It's here people.  You need a bit of luck but as we get more players fit and firing towards the back end of the season will dictate how well we go and even then we could potentially still win it.

Anyone anywhere anytime.   #blueflaggers!!!

It is weird. It's been such a long time in the making. We've had many many embarrassing years. Yet slowly but surely, the dead wood was pruned and quality leaders were assembled and backed in.

This is definitely the new Blues
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LoveNavy on April 21, 2024, 11:35:11 pm
Quite a few of our goals were kicked on the non-preferred. TDK, Cottrell, Charlie... this skill is definitely improving
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: WASurfer on April 22, 2024, 11:54:03 am
Pinot....not sure they'll risk Cerra....only been a week and a bit since the hamstring strain even though it was a mild one. Love him back but the midfield can do this one without him IMO. Cincotta is the likely one in for Williams if he doesn't come up.

Didn't watch the VFL game but Moir amongst the goals. Having TDK forward probably makes it a bit harder for Moir given he's more of a mid-size/3rd tall.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: tonyo on April 22, 2024, 12:13:29 pm
Update on Fogarty.....?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 22, 2024, 12:17:54 pm
Quite a few of our goals were kicked on the non-preferred. TDK, Cottrell, Charlie... this skill is definitely improving
Two weeks in a row though our opposition has been very accurate compare to us. Some bread an butter type misses need to be cleaned (eg Durdin running into goal directly in front. Charlie also missed a couple where he had more time that he thought. But yes, we are much better than years gone by.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: pinot on April 22, 2024, 01:13:46 pm
Pinot....not sure they'll risk Cerra....only been a week and a bit since the hamstring strain even though it was a mild one. Love him back but the midfield can do this one without him IMO. Cincotta is the likely one in for Williams if he doesn't come up.

Didn't watch the VFL game but Moir amongst the goals. Having TDK forward probably makes it a bit harder for Moir given he's more of a mid-size/3rd tall.

Yeah Moir had a good game yesterday. Three classy goals from all sorts of angles and 7 tackles.

Bought alot of aggression to his game yesterday. Another 2-3 games like that and will be in the mix.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: kruddler on April 22, 2024, 05:47:19 pm
Fantasia might be ready for a spell in the 2's.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LP on April 22, 2024, 08:40:51 pm
Fantasia might be ready for a spell in the 2's.
Hardly had any footy but ironically it was probably his best game, even so 6 disposals isn't going to cut it, he needs to find a way to get involved in more chains of play.

Of course it might be his job to otherwise get in the way of opponents or drag them away from the footy.

Just makes me feel a bit sorry for Fogarty, kid did nothing wrong and fractured his wrist, can't take a break.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: kruddler on April 22, 2024, 08:56:38 pm
Hardly had any footy but ironically it was probably his best game, even so 6 disposals isn't going to cut it, he needs to find a way to get involved in more chains of play.

Fantasia...
He's played 6 games.
He averages 7.6 touches and 1.1 tackle.
He's kicked 2.2 goals.behinds, 5 goal assists.

Durdin...
He's played 5 games.
He averages 5.7 touches and 2.8 tackles.
He's kicked 5.2 goals.behinds, 1 goal assist.

Owies...
He's played 6 games.
He averages 8.2 touches and 1.8 tackles.
He's kicked 8.4 goals.behinds, 0 goal assists

Thats a big enough sample size for mine.

Fantasia is almost 29.
He is being outplayed by a 22yo in Durdin, and a former late starting rookie basketballer who is 27 in Owies.
Play Moir or Motlop depending on who is fit and in form and give him a spell in the 2's.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: pinot on April 23, 2024, 10:46:50 am
The quicker we get Motlop, Moir and Martin into the team the better we will be.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: pinot on April 23, 2024, 10:51:56 am
I just figured something out

Motlop, Moir and Martin the Triple Ms

Triple M's get it? Ho Ha
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: cookie2 on April 23, 2024, 11:41:50 am
I just figured something out

Motlop, Moir and Martin the Triple Ms

Triple M's get it? Ho Ha
mmm
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 23, 2024, 12:00:50 pm
I just figured something out

Motlop, Moir and Martin the Triple Ms

Triple M's get it? Ho Ha

Or the M&Ms?  Is it time to re-visit the M&Ms guernsey ... I hope not  ::)
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: laj on April 23, 2024, 12:03:17 pm
Moir for Fantasia for me.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: kruddler on April 23, 2024, 05:39:09 pm
Zac Williams - Test
Weitering - Test

Nobody else back yet
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Lods on April 23, 2024, 05:46:14 pm
They must have been good knocks to the Achilles and the Thigh. ;)
One may get up.
Be surprised if they both do,
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 23, 2024, 08:42:49 pm
Moir for Fantasia for me.

Moir’s still a long way off … and then there’s the footy nous, leadership and pressure that Fantasia brings.

Binns has to be closer in line for a game than Moir.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: townsendcalling on April 23, 2024, 08:45:36 pm
Moir for Fantasia for me.

Don't mind replacing Fantasia, but Moir is still a fair way off. He will be given plenty of time to develop before being paraded out a la Binns. With one or two exceptions, we are right into development and ensuring young players have served a comprehensive apprenticeship.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LP on April 24, 2024, 08:22:19 am
Don't mind replacing Fantasia, but Moir is still a fair way off. He will be given plenty of time to develop before being paraded out a la Binns. With one or two exceptions, we are right into development and ensuring young players have served a comprehensive apprenticeship.
Oddly, after being very disappointed with Fantasia's first few games I think now is the wrong time to change him.

In his early games he exerted almost zero influence, had no impact on the play and had few possessions.

Last weekend he started to get more involved, had some physical presence against a relatively big bodied team, and even though he still had few possessions it showed he was starting to get involved. Not sure what his record is like against the Handbaggers but I'd persist with him.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 24, 2024, 09:12:44 am
MBB’s post from the post GWS game thread:

Pressure acts:

Fantasia: 17
E. Hollands: 15
Charlie: 12
Owies: 8
Durdin: 5
Harry: 5

Apart from destroying the “Charlie doesn’t defend” nonsense, it illustrates one aspect of Fantasia’s game that goes largely unnoticed.

As Thry has pointed out, Fantasia’s leadership is another reason why he is in the team. We have more than our share of relatively inexperienced players and Fantasia’s guidance and encouragement is invaluable.

Is Fantasia in our best 23? Probably not, but he will continue to be selected until Martin and Motlop are back in the mix.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 24, 2024, 10:34:14 am
Don't mind replacing Fantasia, but Moir is still a fair way off. He will be given plenty of time to develop before being paraded out a la Binns. With one or two exceptions, we are right into development and ensuring young players have served a comprehensive apprenticeship.

Yes, there's plenty of time for Moir, Binns, Monahan, O'Keeffe, Lemmey, etc.  We're not in the position where we have to expose our "green shoots" to the harshness of AFL footy before they have toughened up.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: RiverRat on April 24, 2024, 01:43:30 pm

Apart from destroying the “Charlie doesn’t defend” nonsense,

The so-called 'nonsense' related to Charlie failing to chase
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: kruddler on April 24, 2024, 02:53:52 pm
MBB’s post from the post GWS game thread:

Apart from destroying the “Charlie doesn’t defend” nonsense, it illustrates one aspect of Fantasia’s game that goes largely unnoticed.

As Thry has pointed out, Fantasia’s leadership is another reason why he is in the team. We have more than our share of relatively inexperienced players and Fantasia’s guidance and encouragement is invaluable.

Is Fantasia in our best 23? Probably not, but he will continue to be selected until Martin and Motlop are back in the mix.

Playing devils advocate, when i posted similar stats, people didn't like them because a pressure act was deemed to be the ability of created pressure without actually doing anything. Like chasing rather than catching.

I did a comparison of tackles, and Fantasia is well behind the other small forwards.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: tonyo on April 24, 2024, 05:15:23 pm
Don't mind replacing Fantasia, but Moir is still a fair way off. He will be given plenty of time to develop before being paraded out a la Binns. With one or two exceptions, we are right into development and ensuring young players have served a comprehensive apprenticeship.
I know it's early days, but Moir has a bit of Izak Rankine about him.... we can only hope!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: WASurfer on April 24, 2024, 05:55:26 pm
Binns is the surprise one for me having not got a game yet but coaches must know who's ready and who's not. Last year, Round 1, we threw both Holland and Cowan straight into it. Holland from memory has played nearly every game since. Cowan fell outta favour after half a dozen games or so but comes back in last week and looked like he's hardly missed a beat and was right up for the contest. I can see him as the long term replacement for someone like Newman....can play a shut-down role but still get a bit of the ball himself and with a bit of mongrel too.

Owies for mine is a bit maligned....went at 1.5 goals/game last year in his 18 games and not far off that average again this season. There's not many small forwards who get 20 odd possessions per week but it's hitting the scoreboard and the pressure applied when the ball hits the ground in the forward line....I think both Owies and Durdin are pretty good on that front.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 24, 2024, 06:07:32 pm
Playing devils advocate, when i posted similar stats, people didn't like them because a pressure act was deemed to be the ability of created pressure without actually doing anything. Like chasing rather than catching.

I did a comparison of tackles, and Fantasia is well behind the other small forwards.

Pressure acts are weighted; physical pressure acts (bumping, pushing, tackling) are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2.  Chasing and corralling (Zac Fisher's forte) are worth less because they don't have much impact on the ball carrier's ability to dispose of the ball.  Fantasia isn't tackling as much as Durdin and Owies so he must be doing a hell of a lot more corralling, chasing and closing to be 17 to 8 and 5.

The same applies to Charlie.  Apparently he doesn't chase and his tackle numbers are relatively low so, to be so far ahead of Harry, Durdin and Owies in pressure acts, he must be dynamite on closing acts and corralling.

Harry has incredible acceleration for a big man and his ability to put pressure on defenders by closing and tackling is a bonus for our forwards.  Charlie has greater endurance but not the same acceleration.  He puts his endurance to good use by applying pressure, closing and corralling, but his main priority is to create separation with his defenders.  That's not quite so critical for Harry as he usually enjoys a size and strength advantage.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: madbluboy on April 24, 2024, 06:45:43 pm
Pressure points are weighted. The ones I posted are pressure acts.

Forwards could argue the weighting favours midfielders where it easier to get a tackle.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: kruddler on April 24, 2024, 07:02:34 pm
Pressure acts are weighted; physical pressure acts (bumping, pushing, tackling) are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2.  Chasing and corralling (Zac Fisher's forte) are worth less because they don't have much impact on the ball carrier's ability to dispose of the ball.  Fantasia isn't tackling as much as Durdin and Owies so he must be doing a hell of a lot more corralling, chasing and closing to be 17 to 8 and 5.

The same applies to Charlie.  Apparently he doesn't chase and his tackle numbers are relatively low so, to be so far ahead of Harry, Durdin and Owies in pressure acts, he must be dynamite on closing acts and corralling.

Harry has incredible acceleration for a big man and his ability to put pressure on defenders by closing and tackling is a bonus for our forwards.  Charlie has greater endurance but not the same acceleration.  He puts his endurance to good use by applying pressure, closing and corralling, but his main priority is to create separation with his defenders.  That's not quite so critical for Harry as he usually enjoys a size and strength advantage.

As MBB said, you are describing something different.

If you compare a players pressure acts with Tackles, you generally see a player higher in one or the other.
So Charlie is high in pressure acts, but low in tackles.
Harry is higher in tackles, but lower in pressure acts.
They almost need to be read together to get a true understanding of how well a player is doing.

What you are talking about is the pressure rating that they show during games, which is a combination of everything you say.

Its very difficult getting consistent stats on all of this stuff.
AFL app, shows different to AFL website, which is different to footywire which is different to AFL tables etc etc
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Thryleon on April 24, 2024, 07:18:53 pm
Something else is how well they take opportunities when they arise.  I.e.  fantasias 6 touches last week, under what circumstances did he get them and what did he do with it when he did? 

I can honestly say his few touches were dangerous.  Martin is similar.

3 score involvements, 2 inside 50's,1 goal assist and at least one pressure act in front of me that lead to a goal to us with a turnover.  For a total of 17 pressure acts is pretty impressive from a guy who had 72% time on ground, which is in our bottom 4 players. 

He is a worker.   Give him time. 

Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LoveNavy on April 24, 2024, 10:11:53 pm
I know it's early days, but Moir has a bit of Izak Rankine about him.... we can only hope!

Have you watched him in the 2's?
My impression from the broadcast last week was that he ran out of puff. Maybe needs to build his tank. His footy smarts and skills make it look like he has time to size things up. Loads of potential but areas needing attention I expect.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: tonyo on April 25, 2024, 12:36:54 am
Have you watched him in the 2's?
My impression from the broadcast last week was that he ran out of puff. Maybe needs to build his tank. His footy smarts and skills make it look like he has time to size things up. Loads of potential but areas needing attention I expect.
Rankine started a bit like that as well.  The really gifted players often shine in the junior ranks based on their supreme skills, and because of that they haven't really needed to buckle down and develop their aerobic capacity.   The big question is whether or not he has the drive to address his fitness.

I remain hopeful......

Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Mantis on April 25, 2024, 02:14:29 am
As a supporter, I no longer fear any opposition. Our best (even with injuries) is good enough to beat anyone, especially at the G. The Cats will need to be at their best to knock us off, as will we to do the same to them.

Which is why I thought one thing in my mind. Geelong have not lost a single game yet, while we dropped one against Adelaide that are not world beaters and we did have injury problems to boot. Still no excuse when they don’t have the home ground advantage. A game we should have found a way to will ourselves over the line. Hopefully as a club we learned something from the loss. How are we favourites with betting agencies? At best a 50/50 and I still don’t have the confidence we can tame their abilities to turn the momentum their way. A win in this game will finally make me believe we might be a genuine top 4 side. I know we have beaten the Cats in the past few years without an expectation of winning. I know we have troubled them in certain aspects of the game. I just worry about our injuries. We are missing too many guns and “A” grade players. We still look a little thin on depth and expect too many to stand tall and carry the squad. I might be wrong. I hope I am. If we win this one, I will celebrate and be completely drunk. Without regret. Judge me not by my actions, but accept that I am human.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 25, 2024, 07:27:04 am
Which is why I thought one thing in my mind. Geelong have not lost a single game yet, while we dropped one against Adelaide that are not world beaters and we did have injury problems to boot. Still no excuse when they don’t have the home ground advantage. A game we should have found a way to will ourselves over the line. Hopefully as a club we learned something from the loss. How are we favourites with betting agencies? At best a 50/50 and I still don’t have the confidence we can tame their abilities to turn the momentum their way. A win in this game will finally make me believe we might be a genuine top 4 side. I know we have beaten the Cats in the past few years without an expectation of winning. I know we have troubled them in certain aspects of the game. I just worry about our injuries. We are missing too many guns and “A” grade players. We still look a little thin on depth and expect too many to stand tall and carry the squad. I might be wrong. I hope I am. If we win this one, I will celebrate and be completely drunk. Without regret. Judge me not by my actions, but accept that I am human.
The teams Geelong have beaten have won a total of 9 games out 36.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 25, 2024, 11:12:02 am
Pressure points are weighted. The ones I posted are pressure acts.

Forwards could argue the weighting favours midfielders where it easier to get a tackle.

So the numbers you posted are actual pressure acts and not a weighted calculation.  💡

That makes more sense and I’m not sure why I tried to make it more complicated - senior moment perhaps 🙄
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: pinot on April 25, 2024, 11:16:34 am
The teams Geelong have beaten have won a total of 9 games out 36.

We have played three of bottom four teams and lost to one of them and thats the only win for the year.

But wins against Brisbane and GWS were massive for this group. Beat Fremantle when they were undefeated under suspect circumstances but got the job done.

With the injury I think we are travelling well without all cylinders firing but this is going to be a big test. Would have played three undefeated teams in four games and I don't think it is going to get any easier for us.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 25, 2024, 11:20:04 am
As a supporter, I no longer fear any opposition. Our best (even with injuries) is good enough to beat anyone, especially at the G. The Cats will need to be at their best to knock us off, as will we to do the same to them.

I started to feel that way midway through the 2022 season and the second half of last season confirmed it for me.

Regardless of what the scoreboard says and how we are playing, we’re now always capable of maintaining our lead or making up a deficit.

At the back of my mind is the proviso that, if we’re not switched on, we could lose to Manangatang 2nds.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 25, 2024, 01:09:41 pm
I started to feel that way midway through the 2022 season and the second half of last season confirmed it for me.

Regardless of what the scoreboard says and how we are playing, we’re now always capable of maintaining our lead or making up a deficit.

At the back of my mind is the proviso that, if we’re not switched on, we could lose to Manangatang 2nds.
If Weiters doesn't get up, that will be a real problem and put a dent in out chances.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Slowhand on April 25, 2024, 01:21:25 pm
If Weiters doesn't get up, that will be a real problem and put a dent in out chances.

Just had a look at trg photo's on CFC website.  Zack Williams looks fine. No photos of Weitering. Might mean Fark All
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: pew2 on April 25, 2024, 01:40:53 pm
we need to make cats defenders ACCOUNTABLE no zoning off taking those marks with no pressure ,so this means us hitting targets going forward start to winning the game
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LP on April 25, 2024, 04:08:06 pm
we need to make cats defenders ACCOUNTABLE no zoning off taking those marks with no pressure ,so this means us hitting targets going forward start to winning the game
Teams can only go one on one with good effect when they are a physical match or perhaps stronger than opponents, I'm not sure our F50 is a physical match for the Handbaggers D50. It's easy to say blokes like Ollie, Fantasia and Owies need to be accountable, but if they are too easily brushed aside by bigger heavier bodies it's already a lost contest.

Assuming a mostly unchanged line up, I think our best tactic would be to run off the Handbaggers and make good and smart use of the footy off the HBF or through the Mid. With Cottrell, Owies, Acres, Hollands x 2, BigH, Charlie and TDK, we have a well above average aerobic group for that mix of body types.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 25, 2024, 06:42:50 pm
No change to the 23 but Sam Durdin is named as an emergency. 

Injury cover for Weiters?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: crashlander on April 25, 2024, 07:04:44 pm
No change to the 23 but Sam Durdin is named as an emergency. 

Injury cover for Weiters?
Interesting considering he hasn't played a real VFL game yet.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 25, 2024, 07:06:58 pm
Interesting considering he hasn't played a real VFL game yet.
Interesting indeed, they must think Weitering is low risk of not pulling up? I hope Durding isn't underdone!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: BluePhantom on April 26, 2024, 08:17:42 am
The Handbaggers have 4 players on their injury list? WTF?
We have enough to populate a small town.
Something is in the water somewhere  :o
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LP on April 26, 2024, 08:19:42 am
I'm sensing at least one late change, the weather is dry, the air is fresh, the ground will be fast, I suspect either a ruck or a KPP will be an out.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Lods on April 26, 2024, 09:26:14 am
I'm sensing at least one late change, the weather is dry, the air is fresh, the ground will be fast, I suspect either a ruck or a KPP will be an out.

Suspect it will be a KPD....and not through choice.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: townsendcalling on April 26, 2024, 10:17:31 am
How do we feel about S Durdin, Lewis and Kemp being in charge of looking after Cameron and Hawkins??  Simple answer, cut off their supply!! Easier said than done. If Weitering is out, our 'next man up' mantra will be tested to the max!!!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Lods on April 26, 2024, 10:23:57 am
How do we feel about S Durdin, Lewis and Kemp being in charge of looking after Cameron and Hawkins??  Simple answer, cut off their supply!! Easier said than done. If Weitering is out, our 'next man up' mantra will be tested to the max!!!

Concerned

If those big forwards are off the leash then Curnow may be required back to help out a little more than just the cameo.

Hopefully fingers and toes crossed Weitering gets up.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 26, 2024, 11:50:18 am
How do we feel about S Durdin, Lewis and Kemp being in charge of looking after Cameron and Hawkins??  Simple answer, cut off their supply!! Easier said than done. If Weitering is out, our 'next man up' mantra will be tested to the max!!!

We did OK with Weitering missing at the start of the season.

As good as Hawkins is, he does rely on players up the ground and, if we can get on top, he can be starved of opportunities.

Cameron is a different kettle of fish with his ability to win the ball and create opportunities up the ground.  While it's not an ideal match up, Young is probably best able to go with him.  Alternatively, Kemp runs with Cameron when he plays up the ground and Weitering or Young pick him up inside 50.

Vossy seems very confident that both Williams and Weitering will play.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: tonyo on April 26, 2024, 03:02:31 pm
We are drifting out in the betting - I wonder if someone knows something......
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: WASurfer on April 26, 2024, 03:11:24 pm
Agree with you DJC.....Kemp runs with Cameron if he's up around the wings etc and then hopefully Young can just spoil like he does when it goes deeper.

Fingers crossed on Weitering though.....I think Durdin will be exposed for lack of games at this level.

Geelong backline looks a bit bare too though without Stewart and our height could be a worry. If we get it on our terms like we did last week just before half time I think we can win it.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 26, 2024, 03:11:56 pm
We did OK with Weitering missing at the start of the season.

As good as Hawkins is, he does rely on players up the ground and, if we can get on top, he can be starved of opportunities.

Cameron is a different kettle of fish with his ability to win the ball and create opportunities up the ground.  While it's not an ideal match up, Young is probably best able to go with him.  Alternatively, Kemp runs with Cameron when he plays up the ground and Weitering or Young pick him up inside 50.

Vossy seems very confident that both Williams and Weitering will play.
Agree...think the only way to negate the Cats forwards is not to let the ball get down there end too often, its a very talented forward line with good variety and no obvious matchup for Cameron imho.
Young on Hawkins would worry me more than Kemp on Cameron.....this is a game where McGovern providing that second man up or having the ability to run with Cameron will be missed....never thought I would say we would miss McGovern but its credit too him he has become a key cog in how our defense works.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Thryleon on April 26, 2024, 03:37:10 pm
We are drifting out in the betting - I wonder if someone knows something......
the betting odds are an indication only of what the public think.  More people are backing in Geelong but that doesn't mean much.  They've been a dominant side of the comp for along time and many pundits arent convinces about us.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Professer E on April 26, 2024, 06:50:46 pm
We need to keep a close eye on Myers.  I'd run Cottrell on him and make him accountable.  Maybe put Acres on Cameron and make Cameron gut run up and down all day.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LoveNavy on April 26, 2024, 08:10:38 pm
The Handbaggers have 4 players on their injury list? WTF?
We have enough to populate a small town.
Something is in the water somewhere  :o

For the best part of the last 6yrs or so, this degree of discrepancy has been common. Lions, Adelaide, Tigers are a few that come to mind with few injuries.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 27, 2024, 08:27:54 am
We need to keep a close eye on Myers.  I'd run Cottrell on him and make him accountable.  Maybe put Acres on Cameron and make Cameron gut run up and down all day.
I reckon Cameron could gut run toe to toe with Acres all day long. He has a massive tank but I agree would be a good match up.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 27, 2024, 09:11:57 am
We need to keep a close eye on Myers.  I'd run Cottrell on him and make him accountable.  Maybe put Acres on Cameron and make Cameron gut run up and down all day.

Cameron would take Acres forward and exploit his height advantage.  You have to play a key defender on Cameron or tag team him.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 27, 2024, 09:33:04 am
We need to keep a close eye on Myers.  I'd run Cottrell on him and make him accountable.  Maybe put Acres on Cameron and make Cameron gut run up and down all day.
No Saad is going to make it difficult with Stengle too, maybe Boyd gets the job although I'd like Boyd for Myers.
Where ever you look they have dangerous forwards , a couple that go under the radar are Close and Henry.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Professer E on April 27, 2024, 10:12:35 am
The Cats win games by field position - they're the best in the AFL at it.  Myers, Stewart and Cameron are the link/set up men.  Control them and we beat this mob.  Stewart is absent but we don't have a tall defender to go with Cameron.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 27, 2024, 10:40:54 am
The Cats win games by field position - they're the best in the AFL at it.  Myers, Stewart and Cameron are the link/set up men.  Control them and we beat this mob.  Stewart is absent but we don't have a tall defender to go with Cameron.

Stewart is Geelong’s most important player and they can’t cover his loss.  That has repercussions for them all over the ground.

We didn’t have a tall defender to go with Cameron last season and he kicked 6.1 … but we still won.  Vossy and his mates will have cooked up something for Cameron.  In fact, I reckon Scott has a lot more to worry about than Vossy.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 27, 2024, 11:28:53 am
The Age has a two-page preview of today's game, padded out slightly by a puff-piece on the the De Koning brothers' rivalry.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/cameron-or-curnow-it-s-the-biggest-cats-blues-clash-since-the-1995-grand-final-20240424-p5fm7n.html

They are billing it as the biggest Geelong- Carlton game since the 1995 grand final.  And the conclusion; "If you need a prediction, it’s this: Carlton will be too strong around the ball in the end."  I think that's pretty well spot on.

For good measure there's most of another page devoted to an interview with Brian Cook in an article titled, "Billionaires and business deals: The money machine delivering big benefits to the Blues."

Cook starts with, “The true uniqueness I found, in comparison [with Geelong], was just the passion of its supporter base at Carlton – its width, its depth, its tentacles where they spread.”

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/billionaires-and-business-deals-the-money-machine-delivering-big-benefits-to-the-blues-20240425-p5fmj9.html

The AFL must be rapt that we're back as a serious competitor.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LP on April 27, 2024, 11:46:09 am
Stewart is Geelong’s most important player and they can’t cover his loss.  That has repercussions for them all over the ground.
It depends on the innovation of the Handbagger MC.

It's a fatal mistake to assume a team is crippled by the absence of a single player, many of our own fans said as much about us in the early season absence of Weiters.

A forced change like Stewart going out can cause an MC to become inventive, inventive potentially means a new tactic that opponents have not seen before, and that can be deadly for the opponent if they go into a game unprepared to adapt.

Always respect opponents, and be prepared to adapt.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 27, 2024, 12:21:53 pm
It depends on the innovation of the Handbagger MC.

It's a fatal mistake to assume a team is crippled by the absence of a single player, many of our own fans said as much about us in the early season absence of Weiters.

A forced change like Stewart going out can cause an MC to become inventive, inventive potentially means a new tactic that opponents have not seen before, and that can be deadly for the opponent if they go into a game unprepared to adapt.

Always respect opponents, and be prepared to adapt.

That was my point LP; Stewart's absence will force Geelong's MC to make changes and/or play a different game style.  They will try to use Tuohy in the loose man role but he normally relies on Stewart to create his opportunities.  Zac Guthrie will also be trying to cover Stewart's absence but Stewart is more difficult to cover than any of their other defenders, or ours too for that matter.

Geelong turnover game is off the scale this season and they average just over 9 goals per game from turnovers, largely due to Stewart's work.  Their turnover game was still effective against the Lions after Stewart went off but today's game won't be in torrential rain and against a flakey opponent.  Look for them to set up differently behind the ball and that may very well play into our hands with Charlie, Harry and Tom looking to spread their defence and isolate Charlie as much as possible.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LordLucifer on April 27, 2024, 02:15:43 pm
Really want to win this one, puts up back on the first line of results and it means that every team has lost a game. If we get rolled, then we will be two games off top spot and that may be a bridge too far to jump across the season.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 27, 2024, 02:26:27 pm
No Binns, S. Durdin or Cincotta in the twos so some likely changes....
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: WASurfer on April 27, 2024, 02:40:09 pm
Yeah EB I just noticed that too.

Maybe Binns comes in for Fantasia and starts as the sub.....Carroll into the 22? Or maybe Cincotta in for Fantasia and starts as the sub....in case we need some more in the backline.

Voss seemed adamant that Weitering and Williams were right to go.

Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on April 27, 2024, 02:56:41 pm
Yeah EB I just noticed that too.

Maybe Binns comes in for Fantasia and starts as the sub.....Carroll into the 22? Or maybe Cincotta in for Fantasia and starts as the sub....in case we need some more in the backline.

Voss seemed adamant that Weitering and Williams were right to go.


Maybe S Durdin as sub just in case JW starts feeling that corkie?.....Cincotta seems a perfect replacement for Williams....
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: DJC on April 27, 2024, 03:50:03 pm
Binns replaces Fantasia and makes his debut in Navy Blue as the sub,

Good luck young man!
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: WASurfer on April 27, 2024, 03:55:39 pm
Definitely earned his spot.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Gointocarlton on April 27, 2024, 04:15:28 pm
I guess we finally get to see what all the fuss is about with Binns huh?
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: Lods on April 27, 2024, 04:33:49 pm
How much football has Cincotta played this year ::)
Not getting a lot of game time at any level.
Title: Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Post by: LoveNavy on April 27, 2024, 04:38:50 pm
Good luck Binnsy