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Messages - Lods

2148
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS
I always have a little chuckle when I see 'danger game'.  Who was the poster who used to fire up whenever anyone mentioned 'danger game'?  I think that the competition is so close now that an easybeat team one week can defeat a top four team the next week.  All it takes for an unexpected loss is for a team to be a little off in their preparation.  Who would have tipped the Doggies to beat Brisbane and keep them to just seven goals?  Did the racism directed at Jamarra Ugle-Hagan fire up the Doggies?  "Maar paneeyt" Jamarra!

The first two rounds suggest that we should have GWS's measure.  They've regained Whitfield and Kelly while we've basically swapped Hewett for Kennedy.  We're a tad undermanned in the midfield - by our standards - but should be able to match GWS without too many problems.

The ruck contests should be interesting.  Flynn has got off to a flyer, dominating the hitouts and getting a fair bit of the ball around the ground, and he's basically going it alone.  I imagine that De Koning and Pitto will try to run him ragged and exploit any of the part-timers GWS may throw into the ruck.  I'd like to see De Koning and Pitto drifting forward and back to create a bit of doubt in the minds of the GWS defenders and forwards.

Vossy said that Greene will have different opponents depending on where he's playing.  I'd like to see Saad spend some time on Greene and run off him at every opportunity.  Greene will probably still get his 3 or 4 goals, regardless of his opponent but there's not much else to worry about among the GWS forwards.  I can't really see their defenders holding our forwards, we just have too much firepower ... provided that our transition and stoppage work is at its best.

I think that we'll win comfortably, but not be a huge margin.

Go Blues!




I think it was Tribey72 who didn't like the term "danger game".
You didn't dare use it when he was around. ;)  :D
But it's a real thing and it usually occurs when a club goes in thinking they will win.
They've already played the game in their head and had an easy win.
It takes just a couple of minutes of intense pressure at the start of the game by the opposition to show that it won't be such an easy day.
The shock of that unexpected attack is enough to put a side on the back foot and once that happens the day may turn into a struggle.
We lose this one if the 'minds' don't come to play.
2151
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Reality TV
My wife likes the Block and MAFS.
I organise my stamp collection while they're on ;D .
So I'm half watching.
She gives me a dirty look when I make comments at some of the less intelligent behaviour (frequently).
2152
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Reality TV
It is difficult to keep things from being divulged long before a reality series ends, especially in those relationship shows.
Too much social media around.
Photos of participants with other people etc.
Not to mention that they're probably heavily edited to produce drama, goodies and baddies.

I struggle to see the interest in some of them myself, but some of my friends and relatives can't get enough of them.
I missed the days of the 8.30 movies...but with streaming services that's a bit redundant now.
Folks seem to want the short sharp reality burst in prime-time, free to air.
Movies and Sport are on tap. with the Netflixes and Foxtels (Kayo)

2153
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Reality TV
It was interesting to hear about how the secrets of Reality TV get exposed, mostly throw it's own hubris and overwhelming desire to profit from short term fame at every possible level.

It seems that one of the recently finished reality TV shows had exposed the winners name many many weeks ago, long before broadcast had even started. This occurred due to bookings appearing across the country for a speaking/publicity tour. You have no choice now but to use genuine ID, things like drivers license or passport are required for air travel and even for some accommodation. Data mining allows the Internet of Trolls to assemble(dox) potential candidates and the resulting vectors neatly identify the pre-determined results, secrets are secrets no more!

I watch Married at First Sight for the excellent relationship advice. :D
2154
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
The guy next door to my daughter lived with his Mum who has just turned 100.
Amazing woman, eastern European immigrant who lived through the horrors of the war but pretty independent and healthy. She still gets out in the garden.
Her son was in his early seventies
He caught Covid two Sundays ago.
He's dead!.
She hasn't caught it.

It's very selective.
For some it may be no more than a cold.
For others it's the end.
I get my fifth shot next Tuesday.
2155
Ladies Lounge / Re: Hannah Mouncey
It's a bit of a catch 22.
Nazis...
You don't want to see them because of their hateful ideologies.
You do want to see them so you know who, and where they are. ;)
2157
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Stats are part of it.
Other part is peoples perception.....thats what i'm questioning....their perception.

That's probably the heart of the disagreement
You're questioning the perception.
Others are questioning the importance you're assigning to the stats.
Both are part of the story.
How we see the game is often different to the statistical output and equally as valid (running to position, manning up, contesting, missing marks they'd normally take, applying pressure).

The reality is Jack's probably in the frame to be missing if we have another option.
2158
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
We tired in the last quarter because we lost that extra midfielder.
We almost lost the game because we didn't have that extra midfielder.

We lost Jack, a forward, who had little impact at three quarter time and gained O'Brien with a bit of run (but still not a great impact).
An extra midfielder may have been handy (who!!), but there were probably a few factors in the Geelong surge, some mental (I expected them to come at us, and the players probably had a few doubts when it got close.)
Anyway in the end we won, so it worked OK.
2159
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
He is not at his best....but there are plenty in that boat.

Across 2 games....
-------- Dsp-M-M50-I50-T-G.B.-GA-1%- Clg-TOG
Player A - 18 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 3 - 1.2 - 2 - 4- 4 - 75.5%
Player B - 23 -16 - 3 - 7 - 2 - 2.3 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 93.5%
Player C - 23 - 3 - 1 - 3 - 4 - 4.1 - 1 - 0 - 8 - 72%
Player D - 22 - 7 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 1.0 - 1 - 1 - 4 - 76.5%

Who deserves to be dropped?
Who deserves to be persisted with?
Who is borderline?

FWIW, all 4 players are forwards.

Yep, but all have different roles and responsibilities.
So the stats are just a part of the story.
It will be interesting to see who, if any, does go out.
If Hewett doesn't come up, it may be no change.