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Messages - kruddler

4399
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
As an aside, I have only a couple of valid contacts for the USA, people I can trust regardless of politics. Both I use to verify what we see in news or social media is realistically reported.

Coincidentally, one contact is quite valid for confirming the COVID-19 situation, his daughter who he loves dearly is a Federal Head of Emergency Medicine for a large segment covering some of the south eastern states. This is something that causes him significant stress, for good reason obviously.

He's told me this morning, evening his time, his daughter just rang as she does most nights and the widespread vaccination rate has seen new cases falling dramatically, hospital wards are no longer over-flowing. They've strategically targeted the most vulnerable with vaccine rollout, the relief in his voice is palpable. There is someway to go of course, but once hospitals are no longer over-loaded the death rate will plummet, it's all about how many and how fast!

Note to LP, we live in Australia. ;)

Death rates due to overflowing hospitals are one thing. We don't have that here.

When i say the virus is basically dead here, its a relative term using places like the states as 'alive' comparison.

Our death rate is basically zero at the moment.....when people get out and about and spread it.....could it go back up....even if it is only to 5 or 10. Are they considered collateral damage for the greater good?
4400
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Either way I'm uncomfortable with any assertion the vaccine actually works, let alone whether or not its safe for human use.

I'm not sure if this has been covered already, but the thought just popped into my head, so i'll expand on it here.

From my understanding, these vaccines dont stop you from getting the virus, they just make it more manageable i guess. Dull the symptoms etc.
Given that, it is believed that once the vaccine has been rolled out we will return to a more normal way of life. Travel etc.

Going a step further......that will likely increase the amount of transmissions of the virus in the public.
Since the elderly (and other immune weakened people) are more likely to be affected (in the short term at least - worst case scenario is death) are they more likely to get Covid now due to the increased number transmitting the virus....potentially unknowingly due to dulled symptoms. However, since they are still in a high risk category, could still have serious issues with it, even if they've had the vaccine.

End result, is it not simply a numbers game?
% chance of getting the virus increases <-> chance of death decreases

Hypothetically....
If the vaccine is 50% effective, but the general public are 500% more likely to get it, are you not more at risk from dying from it than you were previously?
4401
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pre-Game 2021 AFL Rnd 1: Richmond vs Carlton.
Exactly my point, OMac must play in my opinion. No point risking H, he has hobbled off two games in a row with an ankle, do we want to make it three times (unlucky)? Levi hasn't played a game, against Richmond he will be blowing a gale in 10mins. Newnes is a small to mid size we can cover one way or another.

I called for Omac to play before he was on our list, halfway through our last practice match....and i stand by it.

TBH, i think this sub rule would be ideal for us in this instance. Pick Omac as the guy if we dont want to pick him in the 22.
Our side will be smaller than normal anyway, and thus be easier to cover a small injury.
We get our tall insurance with him as the 23rd player.

edit: My original point that Omac might be in the best 22 already.....and we are picking injured players because we are forced too.
4402
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
There is nothing wrong with digging deeper, as long as finding aren't cherry-picked.

1. Is true based purely on the stats, and unbiased actuary or epidemiologist will give you that advice.

2. Is a fiction based on nothing at all but imagination.

If the police get wind of a bomb threat. It falls into those 2 categories.

With a bit of digging and investigation, they can work out which one.
No harm in doing some thorough police work.....consequences could bad if you assume one or the other.
4403
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Some countries are now announcing the intention to resume overnight, after the EU peak body told them the suspension was unfounded.

I can't believe that intention to resume has happened so quickly by the way.

That tells you the initial suspension process was dubious if not corrupt, right from the start!

We will know in two or three days, but that flip time frame isn't coming from a scientific investigation result, it's either bureaucratic or political.
The question is, was the reason to stop it or start it political....or both.
Perhaps the reason to suspend it was scientific.....perhaps not made public.....and the pressure to start it up again was political.

Too many variables. Further digging required.

With any luck, its all above board.
However, as i said from the beginning, i'm not going to be the first person lined up for it when it happens. Simply more risk involved being at the front of the queue. Acceptable risk, possibly, but more risk regardless.
4404
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pre-Game 2021 AFL Rnd 1: Richmond vs Carlton.
Rnd 1 and we are playing blokes either injured or havent played a PS game due to injury. Gonna be a good year.
Have you seen our injury list? We don't have a choice!

Talls....(back forward and rucks combined)
C. Curnow - out
M. McGovern - out
Pittonet - in
Jones - in
Weitering - in.....with ?'s
Harry - in with ?'s
Casboult - in with ?'s
TDK - out still injured i believe.....at best in with ?'s
Oscar - potential in, not sure

Who else could appear on this list? That covers all out talls. Either we take some with ?'s over them or we go in short.

Someone suggested our key forwards be done to Silvagni and Kennedy....thats they type of thing we have to do if we want to play fit players.
4405
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
I'd be curious to know where the tipping point lies. Is there a magic number at which point suspending the AZ vaccine is justifiable ? If there was one death per country after taking the vaccine, would that justify suspension ? What about 3 blood clot incidents per country ? Would that justify suspension ? Unless the only level of risk you are prepared to tolerate is zero, there must be a tipping point that starts to spook people, and I'm wondering why the numbers currently in circulation would cause that, because statistically they seem very small.

Exactly.....so why is it happening?
Dig deeper and you will find one of 2 things.
1. Countries are jumping at shadows and those numbers are well within the acceptable ranges of these things.
2. There is another problem that is actually behind the suspensions.

My contention is there is no harm in doing our own research into what these other countries are seeing.
4406
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
You can't pose the question and deny making the inference, it's inherent in the question. Whether that is specifically targeted at me to answer as part of this debate, or a rhetorical question posed for the benefit of other readers is irrelevant. Really, posing the checking, double checking and triple checking question just comes across as tricky and evasive, you imply it is not already happening as part of the act of making the statement, that takes us back to Sir Karl Popper.

The COVID-19 virus is dead in the country, except in sewerage facilities pretty much everywhere rural or urban!
I don't imply that it is not already happening, (again with the black and white) i imply that it is not yet finished....or if it then it was not done thoroughly enough to begin with.

Since other countries have started getting cold feet, which is what in the last week or 2....and those numbers are growing....you believe that we have canvassed each of those countries, got their reasons for doing so, done our own research off the back of that and come to the conclusion that everything is still fine and dandy?
You have much more faith in our government than i do.

4408
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
I've already stated caution and scepticism are a critical part of the process when based on valid scientific evidence. I've mentioned that multiple times.

So the root assumption of your post is wrong.

@kruddler  Why do you think the checking, double checking and triple checking haven't already been if not being done at the moment?
If my root assumption is wrong, you wouldn't be arguing against me.

Never said they are not being done. Just saying in the scheme of things, if we delay the rollout (for those who want too) then nobody gets hurt. The virus is basically dead in the country currently. We are afforded somewhat of a luxury in dealing with this in terms of time compared to other countries......lets use some of it.
4410
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
No because we have global stats that expose the likely truth that can't be dismissed as opinion.

The actions so far of those nations fly in the face of the evidence, it is not supported by evidence.

I can't believe you accept such trivial evidence the vaccines aren't safe, while denying the weight of such overwhelming evidence the vaccines are safe. Hypocrisy?
See that is what you are missing in this debate, with you its all black and white. It's not.

These vaccines are are all safe, nobody should stop them.
Or
You are anti vaccine who want them stopped.

How about, double checking a few things. Look at why large countries around the world are getting cold feet and reevaluating before we walk right off the cliff.

I'm just suggesting a cautious response. I'm suggesting there are things we might not know about side effects.... specifically long term that we cannot possibly know right now.
I'm suggesting that just because a government says it safe, doesn't mean it can't be safer.

These issues might have nothing to do with the vaccine specifically, maybe its the syringes, swabs or whatever else. Maybe it's nothing.
But..... there is no harm in checking, double checking and triple checking before we proceed.... and then checking one more time to be sure.