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Messages - Thryleon

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
And the betting agencies only use exposed form and trending patterns. It would take some doing for us to look like premiership contenders, but using betting odds is fraught with danger.  I.e.  hawthorn in 2024 were no where but they were arguably the most dangerous looking side back end of the season.  Collingwood were polar opposite in 2025.
4
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
From Jillian Segal's Envoy report:
2.1 From October 2023 to September 2024, antisemitic incidents surged by 316%, with over 2,000 cases reported – threats, assaults, vandalism and intimidation. In October and November 2023 alone, episodes increased over 700% compared to the previous year, reflecting incitement by those with extremist views and misinformation in the media and online. These figures exclude much of the hate online, where antisemitism has exploded. Notable incidents include the firebombing of Melbourne’s Adass Israel Synagogue, firebombing of a childcare centre adjacent to a Synagogue and school, firebombing of cars in residential areas and the repeated targeting with graffiti of Jewish schools and places of worship. In February 2025, ASIO Director General Mike Burgess declared antisemitism Australia’s leading threat to life.

Clearly the Government, ASIO, the AFP have had the information but Albanese has refused to act and protect Jewish citizens in this country.Think I read that 70% of Jews in Australia vote Liberal which isnt unexpected and thats probably going to spiral upwards after recent events. Its been clear that the ALP and the Greens are anti Israel and pro Palestinian, so Albanese has been in no hurry to act until now of course when under the media and world spotlight. 50% of Jews left Nazi Germany pre war so it will be interesting to see if we get a significant exit from Australia now its unsafe for them. 
My ex-neighbour who sold house and moved because of how bad it was in our area now believes he would feel safer in Israel and is considering uprooting his family and going there. Think about that for a second? Where are we at as a nation if even one person thinks living in the Middle East is safer than Melbourne/Australia?

Woah there GI2C.

There are going to be people who feel safer somewhere else irrespective of where that is.

Those people are not an indication of anything to do with how safe Australia is.

HOWEVER, things are getting out of hand here. 

Ultimately, Jews would always feel safer in Israel.  They are a ethno religious nationality that will look after their own, and actively patrol their borders against threats on their doorsteps.  Would they feel safer or less safe here?  Thats relative. Id probably feel safer in the villages of Greece too, but thats comparing an apple with an orange using a big city as a comparison.  Ditto for Israel vs Australia. 
5
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Not saying it isnt, and whilst we like to place rules on this, where were these rules when Islamic militants abducted innocent party goers at a music festival?

This isnt sports.  With a referee that can adjudicate, and when the Palestinians hide their militants in the gen pop and under hospitals then what is expected?

I know there are rules of conduct and what not, but whos rules are they?   History is always written by the victor.

That's the thing though Thry, the terrorists who attacked innocent Israelis aren't professional soldiers, don't wear a uniform, don't answer to a government and aren't bound by the rules that govern conflicts between nations.  If they are apprehended, they are charged with terrorism offences (although the ICC did charge the now dead head of Hamas with war crimes).  When I was a member of the ADF, I was taught the provisions of the Geneva and Hague Conventions and regularly reminded to comply with them at all times.  Of course, professional soldiers may find it hard to adhere to the rules when the enemy doesn't, as we saw in Afghanistan.

Israel is a party to all four Geneva Conventions of 1949 and is legally bound by their rules ... and they're the first to bleat if any IDF personnel are not treated in accordance with the conventions.

Again, you're falling into the trap of assuming that the militants represent all Palestinians and all Palestinians are militants.  The vast majority of Palestinians just want the Israelis and Hamas to leave them alone and they are not hiding "their militants" anywhere.

The 7 October attacks killed 1,195 people, 815 of whom were Israeli civilians.  In addition, around 250 people were taken hostage and many of them haven't survived.  The Israeli offensive that followed has killed 70,925 Palestinians, foreign aid workers and reporters and another 171,185 have been wounded.  Around 1,200 IDF personnel have been killed since 7 October, on all fronts.  Since the "ceasefire", 379 Palestinians, including 70 children, have been killed and three IDF soldiers have died.  Those figures aren't surprising when you have one of the largest, most ruthless and well-equipped military forces waging war on unarmed civilians and defenceless children.

Hamas was estimated to have between 20-40,000 fighters of varying capacity and access to weapons in October 2023.  The IDF claims to have killed around 17,000 to 23,000 militants (that's around one third of Palestinian casualties) since then.  Of course, the ongoing persecution of Palestinians is likely to radicalise more fighters but there's a finite number. 

The ICC is the referee that adjudicates war crimes.

I'm not a fan of protests generally and I don't think the pro-Palestinian rallies will change anyone's mind, or government policies.  However, as Judith Treanor, a Jewish small business owner, points out,

"Those advocating for restrictions on pro-Palestinian protests must acknowledge the diversity of Jewish perspectives. Many Jews, including members of anti-Zionist groups like Jews Against the Occupation '48, Tzedek Collective, and the Loud Jew Collective, actively participate in these weekly rallies, standing in solidarity with Palestinians suffering atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank.

Globally, anti-Zionist Jewish groups echo this support. In the U.S., Jewish Voice for Peace and lfNotNow have organised mass protests. Orthodox groups like Torah Jews for Justice have taken clear anti-Zionist stances. In London, the UJewish Bloc" within pro-Palestine rallies numbers in the hundreds, including Holocaust survivors. Na'amod, a contributing group, emphasises that uonly when Palestinians live in freedom and dignity will Israel have security.

These groups, like ours, reject the notion that Zionism represents all Jews. The atrocities committed by Israel are not done in ourtives. Many Jews, including members of anti-Zionist groups like Jews Against the Occupation '48, Tzedek Collective, and the Loud Jew Collective, actively participate in these weekly rallies, standing in solidarity with Palestinians suffering atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank.

Globally, anti-Zionist Jewish groups echo this support. In the U.S., Jewish Voice for Peace and lfNotNow have organised mass protests. Orthodox groups like Torah Jews for Justice have taken clear anti-Zionist stances. In London, the UJewish Bloc" within pro-Palestine rallies numbers in the hundreds, including Holocaust survivors. Na'amod, a contributing group, emphasises that uonly when Palestinians live in freedom and dignity will Israel have security.

These groups, like ours, reject the notion that Zionism represents all Jews. The atrocities committed by Israel are not done in our name."


You can read Judith's letter here: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/other/21804/Judith%20Treanor,%20Pearls%20and%20Irritations,%2029%20January%202025.pdf

ahh, but have you read the hadiths and manifestos laid out by Mohammed? 

The extremists are activists who represent Islam.  Not just Islamic state, not just palestine.  Its not as simple as being made out.

I agree that the Bondi stuff is over simplified as being anti Semitic.  Its activism in the worst way, but the actual scenario is that the Palestinian people won't rest until the Jews are expelled for Israel or what was former Britain mandate palestine.

Its a scenario without end djc.  Just like Ukraine Russia.
6
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Not saying it isnt, and whilst we like to place rules on this, where were these rules when Islamic militants abducted innocent party goers at a music festival?

This isnt sports.  With a referee that can adjudicate, and when the Palestinians hide their militants in the gen pop and under hospitals then what is expected?

I know there are rules of conduct and what not, but whos rules are they?   History is always written by the victor.
7
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Whatever it is, it is.  The Palestinians might have wanted to think harder about their musical festival stance a couple of years ago.

IMHO, you dont provoke the bear and then complain when it attacks.  Sure, let's not go all out and bomb innocent children and women, but the anniversary of a certain event just past in greek history.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dance_of_Zalongo

The women and children are always impacted in these power struggles but of not for growing independence from ottoman rule would it have occurred?  Their options were, pay the jizziah (spelling), convert to Islam and bow to ottoman rule or protect their ideology and become martyrs.

This isnt a condoning of it.  Its just reality. A price paid to secure independence from ottoman rule. Thing is, there are no guarantees and that doesnt guarantee an outcome.

  These things are going to happen and continue happening and whilst we live in easy prosperous times, wait until resources become scarce and watch what happens.  This wont be about religion.  Its always been about the supply chain of important goods, but when you have people squabbling over borders and territory the unfortunate wash out is the innocents become displaced.
8
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Netanyahu is within rights to steam roll palestine and solve that problem once and for all,
Surely nobody, neither side in this dispute and nobody in any dispute, has the right to target facilities or take actions that cause the collateral death of children and infants, either directly or indirectly.

Target military, terrorists and gorillas all you like, but stay away from civilians and children.
its war.

In war there are winners and losers.

These days this stuff kicks off, and then state there needs to be a peaceful outcome.

There is no peaceful outcome for the loser unless they assimilate to the invading party.

Let this thing kick off rather than have a bunch of "now now, play nice" and pretend that one side is better than the other.  There is no better.  Its just two nations at war. 
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat


So are you saying our list manager had built a side capable of winning a flag :D  :D

Potentially....but our previous one...
cant praise sos and condemn Austin when Saad, acres and cerra were the needle movers for us in 2023 and all of them were brought in by Austin. Could argue Hewett as well but we'll call him a dead heat with Kennedy.

They all had nothing to do with sos.
10
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
And the October 7 slaughter of Jews by Palestinians? Let me guess, they didnt like the music at the Music Festival?

Since that terrible, unforgiveable slaughter by Hamas terrorists, the IDF has killed 70,000 Palestinians and thousands of children are starving and being denied basic human rights like education and healthcare.  Is that being done on religious grounds or is it just acceptable collateral damage on the way to more land for Israeli settlers or Taco's 'Riviera of the Middle East'?

What pisses me off about our Government is that they won't push back against the corrupt war criminal Netanyahu, who is more responsible for the anti-Zionism that's sweeping the world than anyone else.
as true as that is, they've been negotiating a two state solution for as long as ive been alive.

Netanyahu is within rights to steam roll palestine and solve that problem once and for all, but that wont stop things like the Bondi shooting (it will just inflame it) which dot points why labelling it anti jew misses the mark by the length of the flemigton straight.

Its a proxy war.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Most of the players from 2023 were SOS's

players that werent:

Hewett
Saad
Cerra
Acres
Docherty
Cripps
O. Hollands
Motlop
Jordan Boyd
Cincotta


All recruited without sos input, all played significant footy in 2023 (19 games or more).

Its not that sos did a job and Austin stuffed it.  You cant argue we ever rise up the ladder with one or the other.  Austin recognised some weaknesses and didnt build on the team probably because our hands were tied salary cap wise so we went young.

I've written it before, our time was then, and luck with injury robbed us more than anything else but last year you can make that case again, but the game is changing again. 5 on the bench with 75 rotations.

We have changed it up significantly because as close as we were one or two players wasn't enough to bridge the gap to the best of the best and we all know

SOS did a decent job with the list but a lot of his draft selections missed the mark.

12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Kruddler goes to great effort to discuss list management and pulling out the old club knows more than you is just lazy and discourages people from participating.

Im not saying don't cricitise.  Its hard for me to know.  I would have selected a tall at this draft, but how do I overule them on anything when I dont know?  I watched two videos of talls.  Ludowyk, and Curin.  To me, Curtin was the better prospect, but it was a highlight reel.


And, also dont sit there saying we have blind faith in the list management team, when its difficult to have an alternative viewpoint unless you are connected in recruiting circles.
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
The other draft I consider is the one that had the Rich vs Ziebell vs Yarran discussion.  Despite all the highly rated ability and capability of the players in this draft.  I think Jack Watts was taken before them, and Steele Sidebottom was the pick of the bunch.
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Ah the old, 'simply wasnt any talented talls available this year' argument. I hear that one most years.
No, not that at all.

The talls in this draft were of a relative standard of talent.  remember you wonder why a highly rated (or not highly) wasnt taken, cast your mind to some players.

1.  Sam Wiedemann and Scott Gumbleton, Matthew Watson.
2.  Nick Larkey Brodie Mihocek.

Ultimately, there is not telling what happens from drafted to playing at AFL level.


its not about their talent level.  The next Wayne Carey may very well have been selected in this draft, but for every one of those, there is plenty of examples of talent taken who never kick on. 

Thats not to say dont select one.  Ultimately I always think back to the draft where we took Pat Mccarthy, Luke Mitchell and Andrew Mccinnes as a reason to defer to a higher authority.

Maybe you have a better knowledge of the prospects.  For me, Ive seen maybe 8 minutes of footage of each player I advocate for us taking at the draft, and thats not really enough to know better than the guys employed to do this job.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Ill say one thing about the talls from this draft.  With Tassie joining in shortly, these talls are going to get more opportunities in future to make it, as there will be a limited bunch that are any good.  Letting others take them in this draft, might ensure there are more available in the next and I also expect that any keys that are floating around will get more opportunities as a result.  I reckon Essendon might have one or two that will be free to a good home at the end of next season too, as they went recruiting as many as they could in 2025 to fill in temporary holes.

For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist.  I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026.  Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season.  Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th.  If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag.  Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either. 

I think an average result for us will be in the wildcard places.  Wont be happy, wont be dissapointed, but missing that without some extenuating circumstances will mean time for a new coach.

I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, but i'm missing something.

Are you saying there will be more talls available next year because teams like Essendon have extra talls so some will be available?
Isn't that us hoping to secure rejects from other teams? Is that the best way to go about it??

I really don't like a list management strategy that relies on other teams giving us what we need. Its destined for failure.
Nope.  This years bunch might be bog ordinary.  Because so many have been taken the talls from next year might not be on everyone's radar.

Also, the ones taken now are going to get more chances to make it because the new team will require an additional 6 key position players minimum as part of their talent pool. 

So, the key position players taken in 2025, might prevent you from getting a good or really good one in the next draft based on how the talent was rated.

We wont know for years