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Messages - LP

2
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Materially has anything changed?

Congress has more power and scope to block Trump, but not necessarily if he is operating within the boundaries he is allowed to, and ultimately the USA is a united entity, not anit trumpist.  They wont simply flip flop because the midterms have swung, it will take a new sitting president for that to be the case, and even then, they make too many flacid moves, and the public will turn on the democrats calling them week.
They gained a level of power over investigation and protections.

But it's true they won't act in the way the media report, they aren't going to shot themself in the foot, the reports of political revenge are vastly overstated.

What will likely happen is those decisions that lead to RedTrump's protection and exemption from accountability will go away, and his efforts or ability to persecute opponents will be greatly diminished, and those efforts it won't be funded by congress like they have in the past. he has to pay his own way now, and his family will be held accountable. But it won't be clean, it will be messy, because this isn't a shock, the RedTrump team would have been planning for this from the very start.

Why is he glum, because he has been kicked from the trough!
4
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)
The Walls St reaction says it all, you read whatever meaning you like into it, but it's not just one factor that has contributed to this and the blame sits on all sides. They made hay while the rule book was in the bin, and now there is going to be a price for some to pay.

It is a tell about the predictions on the future direction of US policy and fiscal restraint, Walls St trades on tomorrow not yesterday. Yesterday cannot be changed and means little to nothing for traders.

There is one thing you can predict with ultimate accuracy, greed.

And the opportunistic headlines are already appearing about China alliances, not even 24hrs has passed!
5
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: National Songbook
Quote from: PaulP – on
Not sure I would describe The Necks as lounge jazz.
It's not meant to be derogatory, it was probably ambiguous of me to use lounge based on what a lounge might be assumed as, but it communicates the type of location someone might most commonly hear the music if not already initiated. Think Raffles, the Fairmount or back in the old days Melbourne Temperance Society, black tie venues, the antithesis of a Trump Ballroom.

"Lost in Translation" instead of "Weekend at Bernie's"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" over "Mission Impossible"
"The French Dispatch" rather than "The Pink Panther"

I've seen a poster in NY describing them as the greatest 3-piece ensemble in living history, yet a huge chunk of the Aussie population does not know who they are!
6
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: National Songbook
I suppose they've picked a bit from a mix of genre, but I'd have put Eagle Rock in there as typical Australiana.

@PaulP,‍ why am I not surprised, The Necks are terrific listening and a great introduction to lounge jazz for jazz music newbies. Anyone who has travelled will recognise their music, it's almost ubiquitous as the background of hotel foyers, bars and restaurants. On the classical side, did you tune in last night to the ABC Young Performer of the Year concert? I'm getting old, it started at 6pm and I feel asleep after a few hours of the final. Tried listening agian today, and the same thing happened.
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/special-features/abc-young-performer-awards-grand-final-concert/107287336
7
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)
The initial expectation is that the US will head towards recession, if that happens the RBA might have already shot itself in the foot and over-corrected, it's why some thought no change was the best option.

But the good news for investors would be markets, in particular it might signal the bottom of the market for housing is right now, although I've heard some describe the coming months in housing as a dead cat bounce.

A problem Australia has is that homeowners aren't dynamic enough, they tend to not shop around for the cheapest rates, which allows the big the banks to ride out the storm and still post big profits. Maybe that changes in the AI era.

I expect super to take a hit, a lot of Aussie super is heavily invested in the USA, and it's likely a US recession will impact growth. But this is where self-managed super can have a big influence, because if they think the market is close to bottoming out they could flood back into the domestic property market. At the moment there is a swing towards commercial over residential, but a US recession would probably be bad for that segment. Chasing growth can be a double edged sword.

What odds Aussie Politicians swing back to loving China?
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Captain 2027
Quote from: Lods – on
Not sure why that's occurred.
It may be as the thread starter, my vote doesn't get counted in the total.
Seems strange, but probably doesn't skew the vote to a great extent.
I've seen this before in polls I've started as well.

If I recall correctly the count error occurred early in the process, maybe immediately after publishing, I think I was able to clear it by a reset before anyone had voted. I thought it might be clicks made during editing.
9
The Sports Desk / Re: God help me - the Cricket thread
Quote from: DJC – on

As for the batting, imagine if we had a couple of batsmen with sound technique and an unwillingness to give their wicket away 🤔
You can see the point I've been making about the 1 in 5 men, I suspect it's a type of laziness driven by a lack of motivation, they do not want to work too hard, and then do just enough to hang around the squad when threatened.

The whole scenario is unfolding as outlined when IPL was first launched, the only thing the BCCI got wrong was how lazy their own crew turned out to be. The BCCI thought that courtesy of the biased rules their own lot would still be driven enough to top the table in all versions of the sport, nepotism and privilege wasn't going to be a barrier to global domination. But instead they manufactured a bunch of "Bling Billionaires" who are even lazier than the rest of the world, more Bollywood than peak sport, and the thing that has suffered is test cricket.
13
The Sports Desk / Re: God help me - the Cricket thread
Quote from: Professer E – on
Funny pitch, a lot of people making runs then getting over confident and getting out when in complete control.
@Professer E You mean not a T20 pitch, just a normal pitch!

Despite the failure of the team selectors and management I have to say this is the most enjoyable test cricket I've watched for ages, proper Test cricket with players rewarded for concentration and effort and punished for indifference.

But you can still see that players are no longer conditioned for the 5-day game, they are all struggling to maintain a test level intensity. I noted your cartel friends making excuses for that aspect during the lunch break, claiming our lack of "new blood" is due to poor development of youth, then offering more NSWelshmen as the solution. All the while, it's 30 somethings like Starc, Smith and Hazelwood that look the most indifferent, and 30 somethings like Boland and Inglis who appear to be the most motivated if they could regularly get a game!
14
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Quote from: DJC – on
It is really worth listening to Richard Willingham on ABC radio.  He provides an objective analysis of each party's policy releases, why they've chosen that tack, and whether they're getting any traction.

Jess Wilson is campaigning well and the most recent polls give her the lead.  However, it seems that there's no uniform swing to the L-NP from the ALP and we should see a patchwork of results with some electorates sticking with the ALP, some being won by the L-NP and a couple going to PHON.  I'm sticking with my prediction of a minority government, probably L-NP, and a hostile upper house.
Too many people get sucked in by social media A/B Bucket testing, it's an echo chamber that leads them to believe everybody thinks along the same lines. Then when the result isn't as expected they'll claim it's rigged by the deep state.

The genuine non-aligned pro commentators use anonymity methods to survey the market, they aren't marooned swallowing the usual crap that Faceplant, InstaTwaddle or XtremoNet tell them.

The simple test we can do is use a browser Incognito / Private mode without using your usual logins to survey the news media and social media, and then actually take note of how very different the report and search results become.
15
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
The Greens are dead, so I'm not sure where that vote goes, Labor probably.

PHON is basically stealing the traditional regional vote, which is ironic because her policies and her backers are basically going to roger them rigid. I don't think she'll have much impact on the major parties, she is a clown, and further nobody I know who has ever voted Liberal is ever going to vote for a Bananaby related party ever!

I think it'll be closer than people realise, and probably decided by voters swinging between the major parties. To me it's too close to call, but there is plenty of time left for one or all of them to screw up a bit more!