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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney
Nothing wrong with what you are saying @Baggers, I'm just seeing it different for a few different factors.
1. we dont play in a vacuum. When the opposition adjusts their game to counter ours, we have suffered a few issues preventing us from making too many changes. i.e. losing players before half time. By my count, in our last two games we have lost personnell by half time, forcing an activation of the sub. I think this is the 5th time this season its happened (zac williams accounting for this twice). Ironically we have been closer in games where we have had to activate the sub early than in games where we have chosen to use it, which is a bigger concern IMHO, but thats another story. In round 1, nerves to Nick Haynes probably was the difference between winning and losing. He had as bad a game as I have seen, and Mcgovern was similar for whatever reason. Maybe it was unfamiliarity and playing young Ollie down back too.
2. Players sub 40 games don't have their role nutted down perfectly and are not seasoned performers. To quote the afl, an average of 120 games playing together is a team vying for a flag. I don't think we have this in more than 60% of the team with the lineup we are currently trotting out, and this includes players like Durdin, Motlop, Cerra, Haynes for starters. Some of these names have the requisite number of games, but Haynes has played 9 games with us thus far. It doesnt help some of our more reliable players are having down years, perhaps on the back of this.
3. The season is no where near complete yet. We have come into this season on the back of a coughing and spluttering last season, and I think we are simply not having a good year fitness wise. This isnt the first time for us, it happened in 2012 as well, we just couldn't get rolling. We aren't the first team to suffer this. Hawthorn who we all agree were a benchmark won the flag in 2008, then spent the next few years suffering with injuries to key players and missed finals completely in 2009, limped in 2010, 2011 won 18 games for the year only to stumble in the finals losing in the first week, and then making it to the prelim to lose to Collingwood by 3 points, and then went on to finish 2012 as minor premiers just to lose the grand final to Sydney before they then went on a 3 peat. Inuries played their part in preventing them doing better a few years earlier. That and blooding a few youngsters that eventually saw them go bang. Sure, we arent in Hawks territory now, but if 2023 where we played in a prelim was our 2008 (Hawthorn won that one ahead of schedule and were arguably better than we were in that year but the point is, they struggled for the next few years in similar circumstances coming from a similar place to where we are coming from. We may not ever be like that hawks outfit, but the formline shouldnt be ignored. Not many jump up there and stay up there, but plenty of flash in the pans have happened.
When it all boils down, we are a victim of our historic impatience here. We want to be better, but for whatever reason we are not in that conversation right now, and personally I look at the sheer number of times that we have activated the sub early, and which players keep breaking down, and go, yep, hows that for just dumb luck. You cannot beat lady luck, and we have been as luckless a footy club as I have seen over the journey and part of that is poor planning because once you start relying on luck, you will find it goes against you.
We have talked ad nauseum about player depth and what not, but Collingwood last season are an example of what happens when the wrong players break down consistently. They went from flag winners to not playing finals. Sydney are the example this season. Went from last years most consistent team of performers, barely giving players a week off and using the least amount through the year, playing in a grand final, and this season can barely string 4 quarters together.
To me, this is what I see. A team that can, but often cant for a variety of reasons. A lot of the pundits talk a lot about player selection tactics, and what not. Thing is, sports is simple. You start having compounding issues, and you come back to the field very quickly. Pep Guardiolas Manchester City is a team with all the resources, best coaching and what not in the world, but when you lose your marquee striker for a 3rd of the season, they went from winning a treble of trophies (no easy feat) to winning not even the league cup which is very much the bridesmaid trophy crap clubs aspire to win.
Great write up. Makes me start to think a little different