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Messages - kruddler

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I don't think it's fair to suggest that the turnaround in form is due mainly to the fixture.   Essendon, Richmond and West Coast we would have all started favorites for however the Wins against Geelong, Bulldogs, Port Adelaide (Away) and GWS (Away) are a significant change in fortunes.

"https://www.tiktok.com/@carlton_flaggers2026/video/7657892411057720594"

"Carlton on track at round 9 to be one of the worst pressure rating teams on record..."

Our pressure and match day energy regardless of the opponent which requires no talent have been remarkably better under Fraser than Voss.

https://x.com/RileyBev/status/2051182183340253489
"Carlton's pressure rating of 152 against St Kilda was its lowest of the season, but that's no surprise. The Blues are the only team in the AFL yet to have a single game this year where they've recorded a higher pressure rating than their opposition."

Fraser has put Hewett back into the middle and Cerra (53% CBA's) on the Wing (0 CBA's).   Credit too him I didn't think that Cerra could play Wing.   Jagga is up 15% CBA's.   McKay into the middle has turned his season around and Fraser has used Ainsworth in the middle to pinch hit up to 15%.

Couple things.

1. Its not MAINLY due to fixture it follows it pretty spot on.
How many bottom 4 teams did Vossy lose too?
How many top 6 teams has Fraser beaten?
The difference is in the grey area in the middle....and with that....

2. The tide started to turn before that. Vossy, Fraser, Wright, Davies all said they changed some things a few weeks before Vossy left and it was evident that it was paying off in the Brisbane game.
Numerous stats showed this at the time. The tide had started to turn.

3. Form of certain players who were under an injury cloud early are now playing fit......
Patrick Cripps - 2026 AFLCA Coaches Votes (Up to Round 17)

Patrick Cripps - 2026 AFLCA Coaches Votes (Up to Round 17)

Opening Round vs Sydney Swans: 0 votes
Round 1 vs Richmond: 6 votes
Round 2 vs Hawthorn: 0 votes
Round 3 vs Melbourne: 0 votes
Round 4 vs North Melbourne: 0 votes
Round 5 vs Adelaide: 0 votes
Round 6 vs Collingwood: 0 votes
Round 7 vs St Kilda: 0 votes
Round 8 vs Fremantle: 0 votes
Round 9 vs Brisbane Lions: 6 votes
Round 10 vs Western Bulldogs: 9 votes
Round 11 vs Port Adelaide: 10 votes
Round 12 vs Geelong Cats: 10 votes
Round 13 vs Essendon: 4 votes
Round 14 vs BYE: --
Round 15 vs GWS Giants: 8 votes
Round 16 vs West Coast Eagles: 9 votes
Round 17 vs Richmond: 1 vote

Total 2026 Tally: 59 votes

*Note: The statistical shift in his year since the mid-season coaching change is incredible. He polled just 12 votes across his first 9 matches, but has exploded with 47 out of a possible 70 maximum votes in the 7 games since Josh Fraser took over.*


 
2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond


Its not when we played them. Its where they are now.

The longer the season, the more accurate the ladder.

Geelong were 4th up until this round of matches.
Tell me you haven't picked the week they slipped out of the top 4 to post that list. ::)
They're still one game away from 4th.

I was responded to a comment shawny made.

Did i hack into his account and post the question just so i could answer it this week??
You borrowed LPs tin foil hat??

I didn't know the figures would shape out that way.
As you saw from my mistake with posting figures, i made it up on the spot....apparantly too quickly to check if it was right!

So i'm sorry if this week is different to last week, and maybe next week, but i had nothing to do with it.
3
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
No worries. ;)

Wasn't Geelong 4th when we beat them.

Its not when we played them. Its where they are now.

The longer the season, the more accurate the ladder.

TBH, when i started the exercise i didn't expect it to be so clear cut, but hey, can't argue with something so definitive.

We beat sides who are crap.
We lose to the best sides.
The sides in the middle we are 50-50 against.

Keep that up and we might sneak into finals.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Were we better last night than round 1?

All the easy teams are gone now the real stuff begins.

Just marginally better last night - we had to overcome a few things this time had no weitering lost dean late and then Young during the game. umps handled them a few goals very late. Round 1 we only won because Lynch kicked 2-7.

‘All the easy teams are gone’. im assuming you are referring to Ess and Rich only as GWS away Port Away, Geelong and Bulldogs are not easy for a mid teir team.

Ladder and record speaks for itself.

Our record in 2026 vs....

Top 6 teams
0-5

Bottom 4 teams
5-0

Middle 7 teams
3-3

Overall 8-8.

Tell me again about how its all about the coach.

Edited. Fixed error in formula
6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
[4] Ollie Hollands: Ollie really struggled last night. He fumbled a lot and his kicking was woeful. Also, we didn't see his run and carry either.
Will we bring Acres in? Or do we assume Ollie will be better for the run? To be honest, I don't expect Ollie to be that ordinary two weeks in a row, but I think Acres is important to us.

Not suggesting for a moment that Ollie was one of our best, but he played on the wing in front of me mostly against Retschko.

He works incredibly hard pushing back as that defensive winger (Acres also very good at this) and had 17.1 metres covered.   The most on the ground of any player on the ground.   Seth Campbell with 14.9 and Newman with 14.2

I thought his game was fairly unremarkable.     He had 1 clanger for the game and 0 turnovers.   He also went at 84.6% with the ball and 77.8% by foot.

Would love to know what the coaches thought of his game

I'm a fan of OH, but i found that selection a bit puzzling.

What did OH provide that Acres wasn't providing already?
Did OH do anything better than Acres?

Long term, sure, get more games into Ollie.....but i thought it was a bit of a risk and a slap in the face to Acres.
I would've had both in the team and dropped Ison personally.
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I don't think I want to play a crap team again. 3 games against two of the sh ittiest sides in years and we won them by a total of 11pts.

I seriously prefer to play a good side. We seems to lift our level. We've beaten sides competing against us for a top 10 spot, rolled Geelong,seems to have started their form slump, but play Essendon and Richmond and we barely turn up and nearly lose.

What's with our goalkicking! We should have stitched that game up early in the last qtr but kicked 6 pts straight either side of 3/4 time.

Careful what you wsh for Jimbo.

Got the hawks next week who have a knack of humbling us.
We lost our last 3 against them by an average of over 6 goals.
We may be down a few defenders going into this one too.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 In game Angst Carlton vs Richmond
Haynes and Young take eachother out in the contest.

We going to have Derkson going solo next week unless we get some players back.

Hopefully Haynes and Young are ok.
Hopefully Dean comes back.
Hopefully Weitering doesn't reinjure himself.
Hopefully HOF isn't far away

Otherwise forget about finals.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 In game Angst Carlton vs Richmond
So does the tigers bloke get rubbed out for leading with his head in that contest?

Does Cowan get done because the tigers bloke got knocked out (or close enough too)

By the AFL rules, an accidental headclash, the one who caused the head injury gets in trouble, ie Cowan.


Now clearly, Cowan did nothing wrong. But i say this to highlight how stupid the rule is when it takes into account outcome as a priority.