Its not the only factor, but its one that you ignore at your own peril and will ultimately give you a better judgement than your emotional eye.
I've said i don't think they will make it and i've said its because i don't see anything 'outstanding' about them. Shifter Sheahan always says you need to be elite at 'something'....and i don't see it. This is also backed up by pre-draft rankings. This is also backed up by draft day picks. That is, 18 teams all had similar thinking.....that there was not anything to get too excited about with them.
Are they elite ball users? Are they elite pace, endurance, agility? Are they elite thinkers? I can't say yes to any of them.
IMO, they are slower than average. Less skilled than average and do nothing elite to compensate.
Now there are plenty of those types who end up making it. Someone like Fraser Brown for example has similar traits and areas of need.....but he also had an elite tenacity and desire to compete that helped him out, never more highlighted by 'that tackle' where he simply would not be outdone.
So with that assessment, by the experts, the 18 clubs, statistical representation and by myself....expectations are low. Is that definitive? No. Is that negative? I don't think so. Does that mean i don't hope and want the best for them? No, i hope they succeed as much as anyone.
However, when i'm picking my 2030 team and trying to find areas of need that need filling. Its not in the middle with Jagga, Walker, Walsh......but it might be with those underneath them and on the wings.....Lord, Campos x2, Wilson etc They are not 'locks'. Until then, keep drafting.
If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot. Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it. Thats the simple truth.
Thats not positive. Thats not negative. Thats simple statistics.
No, that's a pretty negative view. You're betting against youngsters. You're betting against your club succeeding. Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success. That's a positive view.
Which ones and how many are anyone's guess? If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.
That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics. You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.
Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.
I'm not talking about our club. Our players. I'm talking about the entire AFL. Thats not negative, its facts. The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.
The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table. Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers. Thats not negative. Thats reality.
Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die. Any number COULD come up at any time. Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly. The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number. The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously. Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable. The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.
If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot. Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it. Thats the simple truth.
Thats not positive. Thats not negative. Thats simple statistics.
Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.
Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests. They might make it. They might not.
Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.
Some would say your post 18 March 2026 , was sounding fairly definitive (& rather harsh) Mr Kruds: -
The campo twins never came highly rated. We all have expectations that they can live up to their old man, but not likely.
TBH, i don't think they will make it, and if the old man is causing an issue now, perhaps we show them the door sooner rather than later. Perhaps they'd be better off following his footsteps and pissing off to Essendon, they'd probably get a game there. More... Like
I don't 'think' they will make it......that is definitive??
The latter part was me taking a swipe at their grumpy old man......and Essendon....which we can never miss an opportunity to do.
Do you think they are LESS likely to get a game at Essendon??
Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.
Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests. They might make it. They might not.
Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.
I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here. But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it.
You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord. Lets see how they go as the year progresses By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it
I wasn't suggested you were thinking about me. Was just questioning where you heard that from as i don't think anyone has been definitive on them....or anyone.
People don't like hearing that any player will not be good enough to make it. People expect everyone drafted will live up to the best versions of themselves and have a long and successful career. Anyone who even suggests otherwise is always 'negative'. TBH, its similar with Wilson and Lord. You point out i have something against them, just like others were pointing out issues with the campos. In reality, its all the same thing. Odds are stacked against them that they will make it. Of all of them, Lord is outdoing his draft status the most, but still far from a 10 year premiership player yet, albeit looking the most likely out of that group.
I make and sell tools so this is what I know. Just to get an "Australian made" sticker takes a vetting process and ain't cheap.
Buying local sounds great in principle but the reality is...if the local hardware store sells a locally made shovel for $70 and Asian made rubbish for $50, people buy the cheaper option everytime. Price wins out every time. Bunnings has the ultimate business model....sell Asian-made junk at multiple, still cheap price points....makes that rubbish 50 shovel look like a premium product over the $20 one. Both are still cheaper than locally made. Meanwhile local industry continues to be outsourced under free trade agreements. Price always wins. Simple consumer economics.
So why do i buy milwaukee tools if ozito is cheaper?
It is NOT always about price.
Educate people as to what short term benefits ultimately end up looking like.
It always amazes me that definitive judgements are made on 19 year olds.
Who is making definitive judgements?
Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.
Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests. They might make it. They might not.
Yes and no. The locals couldnt compete with over seas because we weren't buying it. Correct?
We can be talking about a million different things, but somewhat correct.
I guess my point was the government made the call when they found it easier to NOT subsidise the industry......all our industries. Now its come back to bite us on all fronts.
I don't think we got them at a bargain, i think we got them about right....maybe even a touch early.
Take away their last name.....and is the hype justified? Is their output above average? Nothing against the kids, but once you are at the club, you don't get done any favours.
They are around the 30-35 mark in terms of talent on our list......which is about where you'd expect based on where they were drafted.
I had a look at the Saintsational voting for the games so far. Tom had the second most votes in the Collingwood game-45 under their system Nothing against Melbourne and only a handful against GWS to this stage, but they haven't finished voting yet.
But that first game gained him enough that he's probably in the top 4-5 at the moment on their voting. Hall, Sinclair and Wilkie are ahead of him, Windhager and NWM around the same
So, basically 1 game gets you top 4-5 after 3 games?? Wow, they are worse than i thought.
