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Messages - kruddler
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Who plays all the midfield minutes that Lord was playing? Have to think Evans will play some....who else?
I would've brought someone like Acres in to allow our wingers to play more midfield.
Lord was basically our defensive or run with midfielder and I think that whoever has that role has to be set for it, rather than part timers sharing it. Of course, Melbourne's midfield isn't as strong as it was and we may not bother with a defensive mid other than Hewett doing his normal stuff.
Most of our general forwards are spending time in the midfield but I'd expect Lij and Williams to do the lion's share. Byrner could get a go too if he's coping with the pressure and tempo.
After i wrote that before i had the thought that Williams might get more minutes.....but as you highlighted it should be a defensive mid....which doesn't fill me with confidence, despite him training as a defender.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
IN: Byrne + Evans
OUT: Lord (illness) Fogarty (omitted)
Sorry fog, but that needed to happen and thank F*** they had the balls to do it.
I reckon Young and Elijah would be next on the list of people who should be worried.
We'll miss Coop but our forward looks more potent with Frankie and Byrner - if the latter can bring what he showed in the practice matches.
Who plays all the midfield minutes that Lord was playing? Have to think Evans will play some....who else?
I would've brought someone like Acres in to allow our wingers to play more midfield.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
OUT: Lord (illness) Fogarty (omitted)
Sorry fog, but that needed to happen and thank F*** they had the balls to do it.
I reckon Young and Elijah would be next on the list of people who should be worried.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Compulsory work for those serving prison sentences is a legitimate part of judicial punishment. It's not slavery as there's no legal ownership of prison inmates by governments.
Some believe its a human rights violation.
That aside though, i think the biggest issue in the US is not what they do in the jail, but rather what they do to get people into jail.
Its a bit old hat now, but the documentary 'Making a murderer' highlights issue with the law enforcement and legal system.
Yes, that is but 1 example, but its way more common than anyone would like to admit.
There is the 'conspiracys' of crack cocaine being introduced to get black people into jail. Rules around penalties for that vs 'normal cocaine' used by 'white people' certainly defy a logical alternative to said consipiracy. Looking into how, where and why 'crack' even exists is a slippery slope into a world highlighting these injustices.
That is but 1 (or 2) example(s).
For mine, that is MORE of an issue then making prisoners work.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Interested to see the results of the recent vote in the UN to declare the Transatlantic slave trade "the gravest crime against humanity." 123 states voted in favour, 52 abstentions, and 3 states voted against.
I wonder how many nations built their material wealth off the backs of slaves?
America is certainly one.
....and they continue to benefit from slavery.
A quick AI search came up with this alarming response.
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The question of whether prison work constitutes slavery is a subject of significant debate, involving legal interpretations, human rights perspectives, and historical context. While penal labor is generally permitted under international law, critics argue that many current practices, particularly in the United States and Australia, are tantamount to modern slavery due to elements of coercion, low pay, and exploitation.
Legal and International Frameworks
International Law: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) Convention 29 on Forced Labour prohibits forced labor but includes a specific exception for work or service exacted as a consequence of a conviction in a court of law. This exception is the primary legal basis for compulsory prison labor in many countries.
United States Constitution: The 13th Amendment to the US Constitution abolished slavery and involuntary servitude "except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted". This "punishment clause" allows for forced labor in prisons and is a major focal point for activists who campaign to Abolish Slavery National Network and Freedom United.
Australia: Anti-Slavery Australia notes that each Australian jurisdiction has provisions for legal compulsory work for people in prison, along with sanctions for those who refuse to work.
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Only real difference i see between us and the US is that they actively seek to load up their prisons (generally targetting under-priveledged people - ie 'blacks') and we seem hell bent on keeping everyone out of prison
Releasing everyone on bail.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL Rd 2 2026 Carlton vs Williamstown
Looks like Cerra and Newman will play, as they have been ruled out of senior selection.
Cerra may well be on managed minutes, but Newman probably won't be.
If current weather is anything to go by, it will be some nice, cold, hamstring pinging weather.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
https://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/1981303/byrne-finds-out-the-news?videoId=1981303&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1774494957001
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Taylor Byrne set to play this Sunday according to Riley Beveridge, he’ll be a welcome spark to our team although he’ll be on managed time due to limited fitness.
Hopefully taking Fogarty's spot
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.
I do think it's different
Would you say someone like Matthew Watson was elite at u/18 level.
Good mark excellent long kick.
He was a man-child and had probably jumped ahead of his peers at that level.
He was an All Australian at that level...but it didn't translate to senior football and he became a much maligned player.
For some it works in reverse. They struggle to make an impact as a youngster just scraping onto a list but blossom once they get the opportunity and proper training and guidance.
I can't comment too much on Watson specifically as i didn't watch his u18 stuff.
He certainly was a man child though.
He was AA u18 chb iirc, but that doesn't say much because Paul Bower shared that same honour in his individual draft year.
Theres always outliers for every example which I've happily admitted. That's also part of statistics. But the more data you get the clearer it all becomes, even if there are outliers.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
\@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.
I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.
He's been pretty consistent about this over decades.
Part of the focus is to simply stand out and get noticed. People at the head of the queue, in any category, are har to overlook and ignore.
Some of those categories that are less about athletics, would be footy smarts and disposal. Some of those types would be your foot soldiers at AFL level.....along with tenacity, drive etc.
Ultimately, it comes down to this, and this is something i've tried to point out to my son.
You need to be able to be better than your opponent in something. How do you get the ball?
You need to have either....
- Better endurance
- Better speed
- Better agility
- More stength
- More smarts - knowing when/where to go. knowing which way the ball will bounce, fly in the air, bounce off a pack. When to leave your opponent and attack etc.
Without one of them, you will find it hard to get the ball.
Of course there are football skills, marking, kicking, tackling etc as well, but most of that works off the back of getting the ball, or getting in a position to get the ball.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
I've said i don't think they will make it and i've said its because i don't see anything 'outstanding' about them.
Shifter Sheahan always says you need to be elite at 'something'....and i don't see it.
This is also backed up by pre-draft rankings.
This is also backed up by draft day picks.
That is, 18 teams all had similar thinking.....that there was not anything to get too excited about with them.
Are they elite ball users?
Are they elite pace, endurance, agility?
Are they elite thinkers?
I can't say yes to any of them.
IMO, they are slower than average. Less skilled than average and do nothing elite to compensate.
Now there are plenty of those types who end up making it. Someone like Fraser Brown for example has similar traits and areas of need.....but he also had an elite tenacity and desire to compete that helped him out, never more highlighted by 'that tackle' where he simply would not be outdone.
So with that assessment, by the experts, the 18 clubs, statistical representation and by myself....expectations are low.
Is that definitive? No.
Is that negative? I don't think so.
Does that mean i don't hope and want the best for them? No, i hope they succeed as much as anyone.
However, when i'm picking my 2030 team and trying to find areas of need that need filling.
Its not in the middle with Jagga, Walker, Walsh......but it might be with those underneath them and on the wings.....Lord, Campos x2, Wilson etc
They are not 'locks'. Until then, keep drafting.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Nobody has said they can't make it.
Everybody hopes they do.
If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.
Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.
No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.
Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.
That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.
Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.
I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.
The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.
Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Everybody hopes they do.
If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.
Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Who is making definitive judgements?
Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.
Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.
Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.
Some would say your post 18 March 2026 , was sounding fairly definitive (& rather harsh) Mr Kruds: -
The campo twins never came highly rated.
We all have expectations that they can live up to their old man, but not likely.
TBH, i don't think they will make it, and if the old man is causing an issue now, perhaps we show them the door sooner rather than later. Perhaps they'd be better off following his footsteps and pissing off to Essendon, they'd probably get a game there.
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I don't 'think' they will make it......that is definitive??
The latter part was me taking a swipe at their grumpy old man......and Essendon....which we can never miss an opportunity to do.

Do you think they are LESS likely to get a game at Essendon??