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Messages - DJC

2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Essendon at MCG
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Not sure I fully understand the preference of Derksen over L Young as Weitering's replacement but anyhow.

Yes, going with two KPDs with only 15 games between them is a risk and they will both be conceding height.

Derksen is quicker and more mobile and doesn’t serially hold up play as Young is inclined to do. Both have been playing well in the magoos and I probably would have gone with Young.  Derksen is a riskier selection but perhaps more suited to the way we’re transitioning from defence.

Even with Derksen, Dean and Wilson, our defence is significantly more experienced than Essendon’s forwards.

3
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Harking back to the discussion of slavery, my former colleague, Jane Lydon, is one of the editors of, and contributors to Legacies of British slavery in Australia and New Zealand, and it has just been launched in London and in Perth.

When the British Parliament abolished slavery, former slave-owners were paid compensation for the loss of their "property". The book explores how many of the beneficiaries had ties to other parts of the British Empire, and how their wealth helped shape those colonies in our part of the world. 

The book's not cheap but your local library may have a copy.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Essendon at MCG
On paper and form, this should be a certain win.  However, it has become the case that any team can beat any other team, regardless of ladder position, form, or history.  All it takes is for the underdog to play to its full potential and the favourites to be just a little off their best.

As others have suggested, this will be a real test for us.  We could serve up a thorough shellacking but I won’t be surprised if it’s a fairly tight contest.

While I accept that Newey and Worpa might benefit from sitting this one out, “managing” players could well contribute to overconfidence, as well as weakening/unbalancing the team.  I reckon that Geelong is regretting “managing” Jack Martin.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: LP – on
Watching the replay McGovern was almost playing the decoy lead-up game, he made lead after lead that was ignored or the opportunity was missed through hesitation. At least twice he was inside F50 tens of metres clear of his opponent and we held the footy too long to hit him up as an open target,

Now fans who ball watch will say he didn't touch it all night, but in reality he was doing a lot of hard work that was either sacrificial or not being honoured.

The other thing I noticed, between Gov and Hayward they seemed to be waxing about who would draw the opponents, several of Haywards marks are one on one contests because Gov drew the opponents out of the F50 and Hayward benefits.

I don't think that Gov was a decoy.  He took five marks and, of our forwards, only Hayward took more.  His kicking for goal has been excellent this season but he had an off night.  He also wasn't as effective as he has been when the ball hit the ground and didn't get the handball receives.  An average performance in comparison to his other games but he was still a threat and demanded defensive attention.  His running patterns, and his scoring potential, made it difficult for his opponents to drop off and provide help defence ... and you could probably say the same for all of our forwards.

I'm a bit late to comment on the game - everything has been covered in depth - but there's one thing that I don't think has been raised previously; Jack Ison's two goal assist handpasses to Young and Hayward were like lightning.  Quick thinking, great decisions and elite execution!

8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: kruddler – on
A score involvement in the AFL is a statistic that credits any player who is directly involved in a successful scoring chain that results in a goal or a behind. A single player is only credited with one score involvement per scoring chain, even if they touch the ball multiple times during that play.

How a Score Involvement Happens
A player is credited with a score involvement if their action directly leads to a score through:
- A disposal (a kick or a handball)
- A hitout to advantage
- A kick-in (from the defensive goal square)
- A knock-on (tapping the ball forward to a teammate)
- Winning a free kick that directly leads to the score

So knock ons count. Conspiracy over.

Yes, that's what I said:

Quote from: DJC – on
It has to be direct involvement, so knock ons and hitouts count, not shepherds, blocks, etc.

So, to summarise, Gov kicked two behinds.  They count as score involvements, but aren't effective disposals.  Therefore, Gov's three effective disposals were parts of chains of possession that ended with a score, his long bomb to Crippa being one of them, and his sole goal assist.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on


It has to be direct involvement, so knock ons and hitouts count, not shepherds, blocks, etc.

Might be for a free kick that was paid advantage.
So he made the play, but didn't get a touch for ir.

Yeah, nah!

The player has to physically move the ball as part of the chain of possessions that results in the score.  Gov got one free and, if I remember correctly, he took his kick.

Just another anomaly in the arcane world of footy stats  ::) 
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: laj – on
Quote from: DJC – on
Mitch McGovern has been in very good form but he had a shocker on Friday.  He is credited with only three effective disposals ... but he had five score involvements.  How does that work?  Are behinds counted as ineffective disposals?
Tap ons, shepherds count count as an involvement?

It has to be direct involvement, so knock ons and hitouts count, not shepherds, blocks, etc.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL Rd 10 2026 Carlton vs Geelong at Carlton
Cooper Lord kicked three goals so not a bad effort all round from him, even if his opponent got a bit of the ball.

I only watched the last half of the last quarter so I can't really comment on player performances but, on the stats alone, Coops and Ben Camporeale are putting their hands up.