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Messages - DJC

2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon
Quote from: LP – on
I know Florent has become a whipping boy for some fans, but he keeps doing the right things at the right moment.

More than once Florent was the one intercepting the CheatsFC attempts to go through the corridor, he left his direct opponent and took the risk for the team and it paid off. Furthermore, in the first half when much of the team appeared to be on holiday he seemed to be making an effort, effective or not, and it kept us in the game.

I can't say the umpiring made much difference either way, but it was contributing the low quality game. Sometimes having all those umpires just seems to make things murkier!

Apart from the dubious centre ball up frees Essendon got, I agree that the poor umpiring didn't really favour either side.  I don't really think that the umpires are at fault.  It's more about how and what they're asked to adjudicate ... particularly paying frees and 50m penalties for inconsequential actions.

Florent arrived with a spurious claim about turnovers and he does occasionally miss his targets ... but that's true for all players charged with aggressively transitioning from defence.  As I mentioned previously, having experienced, reliable defenders like Florent, Haynes and Newey in the back half gives the youngster confidence to take the game on, and that's why Derksen, Dean and Cowan led the team in intercepts.
3
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon
Well, that was hard to watch but a win is a win!

Some of our play and decision-making was as poor as anything I saw earlier in the season.  On the other hand, we had some brilliant passages of play and individual efforts.

The development of the youngsters is continuing to gain momentum, although Jack Ison had a quiet game.  It was good to see the seasoned campaigners like Acres, Hewett, Haynes, Newey and Harry show the way, not to mention the Skipper.

The umpiring was hard to follow, particularly the ruck contest frees.  I completely understand the perplexed look on Pitto’s face when he’s penalised; I can’t explain the decisions, even with the benefit of replays.  RR suggested that the umpire who tosses the ball up shouldn’t be deciding ruck frees.  Apart from not having a clear view of the contest, their attention would be better directed to avoiding backing into players.

Essendon is well off the pace but their lowly finishes have enabled them to pick up some decent young players.  Ben McKay looks far more accomplished as a key forward and I think that he and Caddy will trouble more than a few defences.

And that brings me to Dean and Derksen.  I was concerned about going in with two inexperienced key defenders but they were fine.  Having Haynes, Newey and Florent to organise the defence is a big help.

Then there’s Billy Wilson.  Any doubts about his ability to have an impact at AFL level must be put to bed now.  He may not have Saad’s acceleration but he’s got some toe, his decision-making and ball use are good, and he can shut down an opponent.

I think that we’re ready to have a week off and refresh for the second half of the season.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Essendon at MCG
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Not sure I fully understand the preference of Derksen over L Young as Weitering's replacement but anyhow.

Yes, going with two KPDs with only 15 games between them is a risk and they will both be conceding height.

Derksen is quicker and more mobile and doesn’t serially hold up play as Young is inclined to do. Both have been playing well in the magoos and I probably would have gone with Young.  Derksen is a riskier selection but perhaps more suited to the way we’re transitioning from defence.

Even with Derksen, Dean and Wilson, our defence is significantly more experienced than Essendon’s forwards.

6
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Harking back to the discussion of slavery, my former colleague, Jane Lydon, is one of the editors of, and contributors to Legacies of British slavery in Australia and New Zealand, and it has just been launched in London and in Perth.

When the British Parliament abolished slavery, former slave-owners were paid compensation for the loss of their "property". The book explores how many of the beneficiaries had ties to other parts of the British Empire, and how their wealth helped shape those colonies in our part of the world. 

The book's not cheap but your local library may have a copy.
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Essendon at MCG
On paper and form, this should be a certain win.  However, it has become the case that any team can beat any other team, regardless of ladder position, form, or history.  All it takes is for the underdog to play to its full potential and the favourites to be just a little off their best.

As others have suggested, this will be a real test for us.  We could serve up a thorough shellacking but I won’t be surprised if it’s a fairly tight contest.

While I accept that Newey and Worpa might benefit from sitting this one out, “managing” players could well contribute to overconfidence, as well as weakening/unbalancing the team.  I reckon that Geelong is regretting “managing” Jack Martin.
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: LP – on
Watching the replay McGovern was almost playing the decoy lead-up game, he made lead after lead that was ignored or the opportunity was missed through hesitation. At least twice he was inside F50 tens of metres clear of his opponent and we held the footy too long to hit him up as an open target,

Now fans who ball watch will say he didn't touch it all night, but in reality he was doing a lot of hard work that was either sacrificial or not being honoured.

The other thing I noticed, between Gov and Hayward they seemed to be waxing about who would draw the opponents, several of Haywards marks are one on one contests because Gov drew the opponents out of the F50 and Hayward benefits.

I don't think that Gov was a decoy.  He took five marks and, of our forwards, only Hayward took more.  His kicking for goal has been excellent this season but he had an off night.  He also wasn't as effective as he has been when the ball hit the ground and didn't get the handball receives.  An average performance in comparison to his other games but he was still a threat and demanded defensive attention.  His running patterns, and his scoring potential, made it difficult for his opponents to drop off and provide help defence ... and you could probably say the same for all of our forwards.

I'm a bit late to comment on the game - everything has been covered in depth - but there's one thing that I don't think has been raised previously; Jack Ison's two goal assist handpasses to Young and Hayward were like lightning.  Quick thinking, great decisions and elite execution!

11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: kruddler – on
A score involvement in the AFL is a statistic that credits any player who is directly involved in a successful scoring chain that results in a goal or a behind. A single player is only credited with one score involvement per scoring chain, even if they touch the ball multiple times during that play.

How a Score Involvement Happens
A player is credited with a score involvement if their action directly leads to a score through:
- A disposal (a kick or a handball)
- A hitout to advantage
- A kick-in (from the defensive goal square)
- A knock-on (tapping the ball forward to a teammate)
- Winning a free kick that directly leads to the score

So knock ons count. Conspiracy over.

Yes, that's what I said:

Quote from: DJC – on
It has to be direct involvement, so knock ons and hitouts count, not shepherds, blocks, etc.

So, to summarise, Gov kicked two behinds.  They count as score involvements, but aren't effective disposals.  Therefore, Gov's three effective disposals were parts of chains of possession that ended with a score, his long bomb to Crippa being one of them, and his sole goal assist.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on


It has to be direct involvement, so knock ons and hitouts count, not shepherds, blocks, etc.

Might be for a free kick that was paid advantage.
So he made the play, but didn't get a touch for ir.

Yeah, nah!

The player has to physically move the ball as part of the chain of possessions that results in the score.  Gov got one free and, if I remember correctly, he took his kick.

Just another anomaly in the arcane world of footy stats  ::) 
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Quote from: laj – on
Quote from: DJC – on
Mitch McGovern has been in very good form but he had a shocker on Friday.  He is credited with only three effective disposals ... but he had five score involvements.  How does that work?  Are behinds counted as ineffective disposals?
Tap ons, shepherds count count as an involvement?

It has to be direct involvement, so knock ons and hitouts count, not shepherds, blocks, etc.