The only poll that has proved to be almost as reliable as the one on election day is Roy Morgan Research. They are saying that preferences will be vital with a significant number of electors declaring that they will not preference PHON under any circumstances. That could mean L-NP, ALP, Greens or independent candidates winning on preferences.
Victoria has now banned the upper house group voting tickets so there won't be any miraculous fringe party victories. Morgan research has the Legislative Council going:
L-NP 12 ALP 10 Greens 8 PHON 6 Undecided 4
There's still a way to go but, at this stage, a minority government with a hostile upper house could be likely.
Plenty of campaigning happening down here on the Bellarine but no sign of PHON so far.
Half the squad will continuously pick and choose when it makes an effort, effectively throwing games away on a whim, and they are the ones being rewarded!
I think that is crediting players with much more ability than they actually have.
I would say that they always play to the best of their ability but flaws in technique, limited toolkit and inability to respond to the game situation are exposed far too often. Then there’s the additional pressure created by underperforming teammates.
I watched the highlights of Rabada, and he's bowling with a gale behind him at one stage but even then he's not express. The thing he does very well is vary pace without a big change of action, and it looks like the bulk of our lot have NFI how to deal with it. But then again, most of them play cross bat everything.
Rabada's probably not back to his best after his Grade 3 hammy, but he was generally in the 140-150kph range with one delivery clocked at 154.5kph. That's express!
Not exactly new, but as the date for the mid terms draws closer, concerns and discourse are mounting that the Reps and particularly DJT, will refuse to accept any results he doesn't like, and has been planning for a long time for all manner of tactics to interfere as he deems necessary, including canceling the election altogether.
It's really quite something to watch the major superpower become a 3rd world, corrupt, strife-ridden, shambolic state, in real time.
The alarming thing is that Hegseth has effectively removed all senior miltary personnel with the courage to stand up to Taco.
The courts, and even Taco's appointees, are a different kettle of worms and are generally even-handed in their applyication of the law, much to Taco's dismay and displeasure. It remains to be seen whether the civil powers will line up with Taco or the courts.
While it seems easier to amend the US constitution that it is to change ours, the fact remains that it is an 18th century document and the founding fathers couldn't foresee the complexities of the 21st century or the emergence of a cult following a malignant narcissistic megalomanic. It's unfortunate that some of the founding fathers weren't founding mothers.
The AFP commissioner said that they are charging close to one person every week with threatening a Commonwealth politician. I suspect that many are keyboard warriors with no means or intention of actually carrying out their threat, but that's not the point. Politicians of all persuasions should be be able to represent their constituents without having to worry about their safety.
Any number of factors may be motivating those making threats but I can't help but think that the language politicians use about each other, and the language that public figures use about politicians, plays a significant role. For example, Lib MP Angie Bell recently said that Anne Aly and Anthony Albanese "should be shamed and stoned in the square.” Anne Aly subsequently revealed that she has had 19 death threats this week. Then there's Alan Jones advocating for Julia Gillard and Bob Brown to be placed in a "chaff bag" and dumped "as far out to sea as they can". All sides of politics are guilty of inappropriate language and threatening, demeaning language against female politicians is being used all around the world.
It's time that our politicians took a stand and eliminated violent, threatening and demeaning language from political discourse.
Its beyond awful and never thought our once safe country would ever see crimes like this.
Hopefully we can turn it around.
This is just the latest blow in the war against women that has been a part of our culture since the arrival of the first fleet. If you don’t understand that, you must have your head in the sand 🙁
Some people cannot learn by watching other people make mistakes, they need to make those same mistakes themselves.
Thats us, with ON. Sure, we could learn from Trump and USA, but no.....we 'know' better.
Labour and Liberals.....both have their flaws....and numerous ones at that. However, it won't be until one nation get in, that we realise how bad things can actually get....and by then we'll be begging for labour or liberal to come back into power.
I think that's pretty close to the mark but, hopefully, we'll never get to find out how Pauline "workers are lazy" Hanson's party would govern ... and I use "govern" lightly.
You can probably say something similar about the Greens. Although they do have actual policies and costings, they're relying on never being in a position to implement those policies, many of which could have disastrous consequences.
There's already too many of these Hanson types on the world stage, and they are taking an already struggling, teetering planet and making it worse. The track records of Orban, Milei, Erdoğan, Trump and others are appalling.
But I have been given assurances that if elected, she will close all borders and deport many brown people, which will see crime rates plummet to basically zero.
The problem is that, regardless of the flavour of government, the rich get richer and ordinary folk slip further behind. They are ripe for the picking by populist politicians with slogans rather than policies. Ignorance and xenophobia don’t help 🙁
I’m sure that there have been politicians lower than Pauline “workers are lazy” Hanson but I can’t think of any. Her disgraceful mocking of Jacqui Lambie’s condition and, by extension, women’s health generally, is lower than sharksh1t.
Lambie might be a loose cannon but she’s a veteran who served her country. All Hanson has done is spend 30 years getting paid for hardly ever turning up for work.
Independent MP Helen Haines was attacked outside her Wangaratta electorate office this afternoon. A white 4WD did a u-turn before pinning Ms Haines against the boot of her car. Bystanders intervened and detained the 43 year old driver of the 4WD who was apparently armed with a knife and was subsequently arrested by police.
By all accounts, Ms Haines is a serious, decent and grounded regional MP who is genuinely admired both within and beyond her electorate and by people who wouldn't normally vote for independents.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed that counter-terrorism police are investigating the attack.
Information is still sketchy at this stage but, if the reports are accurate, it is an appalling act by a person who doesn't deserve to live in our country.