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Messages - LP

Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
For those interested a meta-analysis is a statistical analysis of multiple previous studies, there is a nice description of Wikipedia.

While meta-analysis can be useful, the big problem is they are easily distorted by selection methods, what studies/data to include and what studies/data to reject. It's most useful when all studies are included, but this can even become problematic when bogus studies/data become numerically dominant. At that time a meta-analysis becomes worthless and must be supplanted by a large study.

Adding any quantity of small studies together no matter how many does not supersede the results of a single large study, because all small studies are likely to contain the same bias. As Wikipedia puts in quite nicely;
A meta-analysis of several small studies does not always predict the results of a single large study. Some have argued that a weakness of the method is that sources of bias are not controlled by the method: a good meta-analysis cannot correct for poor design or bias in the original studies. This would mean that only methodologically sound studies should be included in a meta-analysis, a practice called 'best evidence synthesis'.
This is a big reason why the hacks are always posting/quoting you results of a meta-analysis, often nested as a meta-analysis of a meta-analysis of a meta-analysis.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
You seriously think those agreeing with the anti vaxxers are right wing?  I'd suggest the complete reverse is closer to the truth.
The division is not along political lines, there has always been a very strong anti-vaxx movement based on economics rather than politics. Historically, it's the well-to-do inner city dwellers who are least likely to be vaccinated and more likely to have unvaccinated children for any vaccine not just COVID.

I've heard it described as a new world entitlement, they are entitled to have you vaccinated for their personal benefit!

I blame the Hippocratic Oath, or various aborted versions of it!
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Post Game Frustrations: AFL 2021 Rd 14: Carlton vs GWS
We go with young kids who have only been using the 6 6 6 rules as lomg as theyve been an afl footballer in a team bottom of the ladder.
Kids(drafteees) come out of the TAC Cup system, in the TAC Cup the AFL mandates direct match ups and discourages flooding or other zoning tactics to allow recruiters to see and assess players in fair one on one contests. If a coach breaks that rule they risk losing their job, they are employed by the AFL.

It's a big reason why a lot of recruits struggle in the first few years.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Covid is a disease that isn't cutting people down the way we were first told it would.
Doesn't that depend on where you are and when, go somewhere the health system is over run to reconfirm that and the story might be very different.

It seems our health system isn't over-run because of the aggressive restrictions, not in spite of them!

And I'll reiterate, COVID deaths are only one measure, long COVID is going to become a much bigger issue if effective treatments are not found. If the restrictions and lockdowns buy time to develop those treatments, then that is probably a good thing.

If too many 20 somethings get heart or kidney disease, that's a lifetime of care dollar$ we will all be subsidising, it is not an insignificant risk!
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pre game profession of faith: AFL 2021 Rd 15: Carlton vs Adelaide
Like a few others I am regretting we didnt pick up Crocker mid season.....
I doubt he'd help us, in the VFL he defends and tackles well inside F50 but he's not big on getting up and down the ground, and I think AFL clubs would basically run him or run off him, add his slow leg speed to the already slow team and we'd be left even more outnumbered in our own D50.
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Post Game Frustrations: AFL 2021 Rd 14: Carlton vs GWS
Dow has to play every week so we can actually make a call on him.
SPS too. We drafted these guys now back them in.

Yet yesterday in the commentary I heard the "experts" state we were now paying the price for gifting those guys too many games when they weren't ready, hadn't earned it and weren't performing! They've become use to being selected off the back of half-hearted performances.

I've heard a few state that recently, including Jordan Lewis, Leigh Matthews and Wayne Carey, it's obviously an opinion circulating through the industry.

I think if you play them and they get beat up week after week it actually sets them back regardless of whatever ability they have!

Partly I blame our club for not taking Northern and the 2nd tier seriously over the last 20 years, we basically ignored player development at VFL level.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Notice that 40% of reported clot cases are considered serious, 23 for Australia.

13 of the 23 required ICU, 2 of the 13 sadly perished.

For both Pfizer and AZ, about 75% of cases are female.

Most male cases are elderly and/or have significant underlying health issues.

So far in Australia there have been 6.1 Million doses administered, I think that means it is safer than eating nuts!
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2021 Rd ?: Carlton vs Port Melbourne
Tom Williamson nominally named on the bench....fallen a fair way from his 1st year when he showed plenty.
Agree...that team should flog Port given the number of players with senior experience, hope Boyd repays the faith and can give us something. SPS, Levi, LOB and Murphy looking down the hill with the finish line in sight...
 Yep, will be watching Boyd with a lot of interest.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Not my field of expertise, its an interesting angle in treatment but seems full of issues, risks, lack of conclusive results..
This link is a bit of an overview of it all, you are right about the Russians dabbling with it although no data available.
While there are legitimate hopes for macrophage therapy in treating very serious illness, like cancer, over in Russia it's their health system version of homeopathy. They use it for everything, with extreme claims it can cure poorness, change your luck, or even make your dingle dangle longer!

There are stories of miracle cures for people western medicine had given up on, but there are stories of young wannabe girls going to be treated for acne and ending up on a slab in a morgue!

That is not to say monoclonal antibody or macrophage research isn't worthwhile or isn't viable, but it would be truly ironic for vaccine naysayers to boost either ahead of a 50 year old vaccine technology like AZ or Novavax!