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11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
I just said similar in another thread.
All outgoing players are now no good.
All incoming players have never played a bad game or missed a game through injury.
Its hypocrisy.

Take them all at 'average' levels and go from there.
You'll come up with the same conclusion if you are honest.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: Lods – on
What I'm arguing with is that you are looking at the 'best' of these players and arguing what we've lost means we will slip further down the ladder.
But if Tom, Charlie and Jack, had played at that level (their best) for a whole season I'm pretty sure we would have finished better than eleventh.
Even 50-60 goals from Charlie would have made a difference.

TDK is a loss, but it's a loss of a certain type of ruckman and we still have Pittonet who shaded him in ruck work, and O'Keefe (who is a probably a better ruck forward) who will more than likely improve....and Reidy who was behind a couple of pretty good rucks at Freo but played some very good football at the WAFL level, to consider...so net loss for TDK not so much.

So we have to look at their 2025 output when deciding whether or not their loss is as significant as you claim.
We only have to replace their 2025 efforts to maintain our position or do better.

Now that's even before we consider the season losses of Newman, Kemp and Jagga.
Add the loss of O'Farrell when he was just starting to show the goods.
Then consider Harry and his issues...the distraction that was Elijah.

You can't see how we're going to be as good as 11th
I can't see how we're going to be worse.
So best we agree to disgree.

I'm not comparing them to their best. Nowhere did i say Charlie will kick 81 goals. I didn't put any figure on it actually, but even if he kicks half that, its most likely more than any recruit we bring in. Yes, the load will spread. We may even kick the same amount of goals as 2025, but i guarantee you it will be easier with a half fit Curnow than without.
Same with the others.
That being said, you are the polar opposite...and not alone.
All the players that went out are no good, broken old hacks.
and
All the players that are coming in have never had a bad game of football in their life and will cover for the a-graders we have lost.



TDK at 'half rat power' is still better than anyone else besides Pittonet.

I did chuckle how you used Pittonets ruck work comparison to show how he is superior to TDK. The same thing you and everyone else have been telling me how unimportant that is. Funny, when the shoe is on the other foot.

Oh i didn't take into account the injured players we get back?
Oh, i didn't know you included the players that will be injured this year?!

All things being equal, we got worse. Simple. No amount of spin can change that.

What you, and others, are banking on is that not all things are equal this year.
Hopefully we.....
a) Get less injuries.
b) Get a morale/confidence boost by the incoming players (or the fact the outgoing have left)
c) Get a boost from all the extra coaching staff we have added
d) Get a few extra wins early with a honeymoon period by surprising them with new lineup and/or gameplan.
etc

...and we may very well get that, and i hope we do.
Ultimately, that is just papering over the cracks though. Those same things could happen IF we had the same players we just lost.

I'll say this one more time to summarise.

Each individual move that has been made, you can make a point for as being the right thing to do. You might argue one player over another, but in terms of rolls they play and the logic behind it, you can see what they are trying to achieve.
However, overall list management needs to look at the macro, not just the micro. Looking at the list as a whole, we've been found lacking and neglected certain areas. Those issues are exacerbated when players leave unexpectedly from those same areas.
As a result, i expect to drop this year. I hope that this is the only year that occurs, but more than likely it'll take a couple before we bounce back, and unless there continues to be mass exodus, i expect that to happen.
I'm prepared for this trough.
I would say it was avoidable, but $h!t happens and it is what it is.

I'm not sure anyone else is prepared for it.....and thats when 'old carlton' takes over and we sack a coach and enter a full rebuild.
All for something that should've been avoided, which i've been banging on about for years, but was ignored.

I've argued about how we've fallen off a cliff in the last 18 months. If things go how they very well could, there is another much bigger cliff we can fall off not too far away.
Watch this space.
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: Lods – on
That's the whole point.
I'm sorry these guys are not there.
Fully fit they would be in everybody's best team.
They would enhance our side.
If we were doing this exercise and they were still on the list they get a game in most people's sides.

Why? Because the ground rules Kruddler laid down said they were "fully fit" (even O' Farrell is in the mix and he might not even play a game next year.)

I think some have forgotten the 'ground' rules for this List Management debate, and the key question.
"Higher ladder position in 2025 or 2026"
Some are having difficulty grasping why we won't slide.

That debate question spreads over a number of threads, is ongoing, and also applies here... Will we perform better in 2026 than we did in 2025 given the changes to the list?

And that debate centres around the three main players we have lost, and the players coming in through trade and draft.
Don't think Coleman Charlie 2023, think Charlie 2025.

Charlie's contribution 2023 would be near impossible to cover
Charlie 2025...not so much.
There is every chance they will blossom at their new clubs and regain their best form, but early indications for 2026 are not great with both Jack and Tom missing some significant pre-season. Jack in particular seems to have an ongoing injury issue...and I suspect for some time has had a fair bit on his plate, which may go some way to explaining his decision to move.

Tom has had the distraction of the big money move. Charlie and Jack have had ongoing injury problems, all these impacted on their form the past year.

And that's why if you ask me the question... Will we be better in 2026 than we were at 11th place in 2025?...I'm guessing, yes.
Will we finish higher than we did in 2023...I'm guessing, no....2027 for that target. ;)


So TDK, Charlie and Jack are in fact better players when fully fit than those we have acquired?
Im not thinking what a player did in what particular year or how fit they were last year or the year before, Im selecting on ability and the presumption those players will be fit at some stage in the future if our medical/fitness staff can get their act together.
If we are building a list based around fitness first then Sam Walsh would have to be a candidate to be traded out next season if he is injured again for a long period if thats now a large part of our list management decision making for the future?
If Harry McKay had another mental health episode and took a break would that also place him in the trade basket?...
Are you willing to trade out all our A grade talent on the basis they may never be fully fit and replace them with players with less ability..?
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by Baggers -
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Quote from: Lods – on


Our injury list in 2024 consisted of much more than TDK and Curnow

Docherty didn't play until the end of the season and was clearly underdone.
As well as an extensive list of players down through the year..
Players listed as doubtful or needing tests prior to the elimination final against Brisbane included-

McKay
Cerra
McGovern
Willliams
Martin
Boyd
Durdin
Marchbank

We didn't fall off a cliff in 2024...we were pushed off by the injury gods.




The Giants game where Charlie stepped in a hole in the warm up was a turning point. Yeah we had a lot of injuries but he was the best forward in the comp.


If our fortunes rely / relied on one person, we're right royally rooted.
16
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
That's the whole point.
I'm sorry these guys are not there.
Fully fit they would be in everybody's best team.
They would enhance our side.
If we were doing this exercise and they were still on the list they get a game in most people's sides.

Why? Because the ground rules Kruddler laid down said they were "fully fit" (even O' Farrell is in the mix and he might not even play a game next year.)

I think some have forgotten the 'ground' rules for this List Management debate, and the key question.
"Higher ladder position in 2025 or 2026"
Some are having difficulty grasping why we won't slide.

That debate question spreads over a number of threads, is ongoing, and also applies here... Will we perform better in 2026 than we did in 2025 given the changes to the list?

And that debate centres around the three main players we have lost, and the players coming in through trade and draft.
Don't think Coleman Charlie 2023, think Charlie 2025.

Charlie's contribution 2023 would be near impossible to cover
Charlie 2025...not so much.
There is every chance they will blossom at their new clubs and regain their best form, but early indications for 2026 are not great with both Jack and Tom missing some significant pre-season. Jack in particular seems to have an ongoing injury issue...and I suspect for some time has had a fair bit on his plate, which may go some way to explaining his decision to move.

Tom has had the distraction of the big money move. Charlie and Jack have had ongoing injury problems, all these impacted on their form the past year.

And that's why if you ask me the question... Will we be better in 2026 than we were at 11th place in 2025?...I'm guessing, yes.
Will we finish higher than we did in 2023...I'm guessing, no....2027 for that target. ;)

17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Given TDK, Charlie and Jack were/are now classified as spuds/navy blue infidels and the players we have brought in are vastly superior you wouldnt be able to include the afore mentioned three in your best 23 for next season if they were still on the list and the new recruits were also available?

I don't think anyone is saying these players we lost were 'duds'
They were obviously best 23
All three would probably make most folks selctions.
They'd make mine.

But their 2025 form was sub par, except perhaps for Jack who showed some promise as a KPD....before he was injured ::)
So in determining whether we improve from 2025 to 2026 we don't look at their best, we look at what they gave us in 2025 and that gap, if it exists, isn't that large.

The whole list debate centres around the difference between 2025 and 2026
Whether we finish about the same, 11th, whether we drop...or progress.
Some think we'll slide based on the loss of the three amigos.
Some think we'll stay about the same.
Others see us progressing.

We don't know the future.
In a lot of respects the list won't be a determining factor....it will be a better run with injuries, how the new players gel, no issues like player mental health, no division, a totally committed group... and a big change in luck, which hasn't been our friend the last two years.

Can't see how they make your best team if you and others have said their loss would be negligible in effect and say we have a better improved team without them.
You can't have it both ways...if we are a better team without them why would you pick them in your best 23?
TDK isn't as a good a ruckman as Pittonet, HOk ,or Reidy, JSOS is slow and Injury prone and Charlie isnt productive enough with a poor attitude...that's what I have been reading. Surely they would be VFL players and backup only...
18
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Thryleon -
Jack Silvagni was never clearly in everyone's best 23.  He was often the one that missed out, and Im one of the people who would select him more often than not.

Thing is, last year was arguably his best output for a season.  13 games, in which he was subbed early at least twice, and was influential in only about 2 of them.  He was otherwise very good, but not the difference.  He's joining a pretty defensive unit so I expect he will look good at the Saints, but I wonder how much of him looking like an elite defender, was as much to do with the players around him and how we defended as a team as it was him.   We certainly didnt get pummelled without him, and he played in our worst loss for the year before succumbing to injury (vs Port).
19
The Sports Desk / Re: God help me - the Test Cricket thread
Last post by Thryleon -
Quote from: crashlander – on
Quote from: bratblue – on
Boycott reckons his mother could bat better with a stick of rubarb. haha
The English press certainly do not hold back. Our media is far from blameless, but I doubt we'd see quite the same level of hate being expressed.
You go from chocolates to boiled lollies very quickly over there.

Its the nature of English sports.  They need something to write about.  Follow the EPL for a season.  They display Carlton like pressure cooker in the media.
20
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Quote from: Lods – on
Yep
Cripps, McKay Weitering, Walsh, Hewett all duds

Moir, O'Keefe, Smith, Dean....probably won't get a game in this side.
What were we thinking drafting losers like Hayward and Ainsworth to bolster the forward line.
O'Farrell...will struggle to get back...ever!

We're screwed. :D

Thank heavens for Evans. ;)
Given TDK, Charlie and Jack were/are now classified as spuds/navy blue infidels and the players we have brought in are vastly superior you wouldnt be able to include the afore mentioned three in your best 23 for next season if they were still on the list and the new recruits were also available?

I don't think anyone is saying these players we lost were 'duds'
They were obviously best 23
All three would probably make most folks selctions.
They'd make mine.

But their 2025 form was sub par, except perhaps for Jack who showed some promise as a KPD....before he was injured ::)
So in determining whether we improve from 2025 to 2026 we don't look at their best, we look at what they gave us in 2025 and that gap, if it exists, isn't that large.

The whole list debate centres around the difference between 2025 and 2026
Whether we finish about the same, 11th, whether we drop...or progress.
Some think we'll slide based on the loss of the three amigos.
Some think we'll stay about the same.
Others see us progressing.

We don't know the future.
In a lot of respects the list won't be a determining factor....it will be a better run with injuries, how the new players gel, no issues like player mental health, no division, a totally committed group... and a big change in luck, which hasn't been our friend the last two years.