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11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: shawny – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
The win/loss column just shows who is in front at the end of the game.
The quarters won/lost columns show how competitive you are in the games.

People fixating on the first and neglecting the 2nd is a recipe for disaster.

Quarters won is a stat that can be interpreted a few ways but W/L stat is ultimately all that matters.

There are no cups in Trophy cabinet awarded for the amount of quarters won.

There isn't any trophies awarded for any amount of wins during the season either.

But if you want to successfully see how well you are going as a group, you want as much data as you can.

Taking your own logic....wins and losses is all that matters. Sure.

So 17 teams will have not won the flag at the end of the year.
Do all 17 go on a rebuild?
They are all losers.
Wins and losses are all that matters. Everyone else lost.

No....they see how many wins/losses they have to help assess their year.
Further to that, teams can see how many quarters won/lost to further assess their year.

As i said, ignoring that is a recipe for disaster. Just like focussing solely on winning the flag (or not) is a recipe for disaster too.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by shawny -
Quote from: Professer E – on
The reality Shawny is that the form of the midfield group has directly equated to the team's result.  Cripps et al. were awful during rounds 1 to 8 but have been dominant since then.  And that worries me greatly going forwards because going forwards that's the group we need to re-vitalise.  We can rely on George and Paddy to be competitive.
Where I think we've greatly improved as a coaching group is there seems to be a preference to play blokes in their best positions, pick the right role players and in general far less cockamamie MC choices.

Prof, I think its more than all this mostly on the bank of Cripps and Walsh over the last 6 weeks.

Personnel changes, confidence, gameplan tweaks, rapid improvement from our youth, more genuine options in the F50 and better use of the ball going inside 50, holding possession when no clear options and thank god there is no longer the default long bombs to contest - these are some of the reasons i see that are just as important as the midfield improvement.

I know its early days but we seem to be no where near as reliant on individuals as we were in the past. It was blinders from Cripps, Charlie, TDK or bust in previous years.

The winning run we are on this time is different.          
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by shawny -
Quote from: kruddler – on
The win/loss column just shows who is in front at the end of the game.
The quarters won/lost columns show how competitive you are in the games.

People fixating on the first and neglecting the 2nd is a recipe for disaster.

Quarters won is a stat that can be interpreted a few ways but W/L stat is ultimately all that matters.

There are no cups in Trophy cabinet awarded for the amount of quarters won.

15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: Lods – on
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.
It's an interesting concept, and perhaps a lack of understanding about how stats work.

Technically, there is nothing stopping a team losing 75% of quarters but still winning more games than they lose, or inversely a team winning the majority of quarters and still losing more than they win like Carlton. Because the bare stat represents nothing in regard to magnitude, it measures a swing in direction, not the magnitude of the swing. Scrap over the line in a quarter by 1pt, is the same stat as winning a quarter by 10 goals.

A great comparison might be the Filth from a season or two back, when they scrapped over the line in the last quarter of more than half the wins they had.

Winning quarters is not something to hang your hat on...
But what it does show is that a club may not be winning games but are competitive for large periods of games.

In our case before the change of coach it was being used to show that our problems weren't necessarily over a total game, and we played really good, sometimes dominating, football for large sections of our games.

Our issues were more about lapses and the inability to stem them, and then come back and recover leads we had given up.

1-8 may have been the results we were getting (and that's really all that counts in the big scheme of things) but our fate was usually determined by one bad quarter.

We lost to the Lions by less than 2 goals (but won the last two quarters) and Collingwood by less than a goal (won two of the quarters)
Against Melbourne we dominated for the entire first half. (7-4 to 1-6) at half time.

There has been a significant change.
These lapses in our game aren't occurring to the same extent and we seem to be able to stem them and consolidate.
16
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: DJC – on
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

Wright may have been a good list manager but he’s never been a CEO before.  There’s also the matter of him walking away from Collingwood because he had issues with Kelly.  That may well be a positive but he doesn’t have a track record as a CEO or long term football administrator.  He may well be brilliant, and I hope he is, but the jury is still out.

I have a lot more faith in Davies who does have a proven track record as footy manager.

He was the Head of Football at Hawthorn and General Manager of football at Collingwood when they won a flag...so he does have a little more to his resume than just List Manager.

But this is probably his biggest task.
And will be the biggest feather in his cap if he can make Carlton a truly successful club again.

And Davies strikes me as the ideal "Luca Brasi".
17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by LP -
Quote from: Lods – on
I wonder how we sit now on that 'quarters won' table that was floating around before we were good.
It's an interesting concept, and perhaps a lack of understanding about how stats work.

Technically, there is nothing stopping a team losing 75% of quarters but still winning more games than they lose, or inversely a team winning the majority of quarters and still losing more than they win like Carlton. Because the bare stat represents nothing in regard to magnitude, it measures a swing in direction, not the magnitude of the swing. Scrap over the line in a quarter by 1pt, is the same stat as winning a quarter by 10 goals.

A great comparison might be the Filth from a season or two back, when they scrapped over the line in the last quarter of more than half the wins they had.
19
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Quote from: PaulP – on
I think the current setup is working because the players are less mentally burdened, and because Fraser the Amazer has taken 2.5-3 quarter good efforts and turned them into 3.5-4 quarter efforts. He deserves credit for that. However it's completely inaccurate to think that one individual (an inexperience caretaker coach no less) can take an entire organization from zero to hero in seven days, and keep it going for 6 weeks. There's no way that can be true. A football club is massive, with significant inertia and investment in training loads and methods, personnel, game style etc.

I still have my doubts about Wright and Davies.
Everyone I have spoken to with connections to AFL clubs and in particular Coll and Haw, tell me Wright is a jet and knows what he is doing and his track record is proven. The fact he was hand picked and anointed by Cook is enough for me.
I have no intel on Davies but from what I have seen and heard from him, he seems knowledgeable and  impressive.

Wright may have been a good list manager but he’s never been a CEO before.  There’s also the matter of him walking away from Collingwood because he had issues with Kelly.  That may well be a positive but he doesn’t have a track record as a CEO or long term football administrator.  He may well be brilliant, and I hope he is, but the jury is still out.

I have a lot more faith in Davies who does have a proven track record as footy manager.