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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by laj -is it that much for 4%? Suppose that can be case this time of the year. I know you'd have done that maths so thinking you're right.
Sorry i think i was looking at an 'unupdated' ladder.
Combined margin would be closer to 80 points
I looked at the ladder predictor in the end, which I should've done the first time. Brisbane won't get beaten by more than 15pts if they were to lose, Pies might rest a few anyway, which would make Brissie good things. Think Brisbane will win anyway. In the event of a 15pts loss, Adelaide would have to win by 61pts. You're 80pt total was pretty much spot on.
That would be the worst thing that would happen to us going to the Gabba. Doubt we will be.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by RiverRat -
Our small defenders got a lot of ball, but made uncharacteristic errors that could have been lethal. Billy Wilson was lucky that Jones couldn't kick straight, even if he did have leather poisoning.
Ditto Naughton; he had a dose of the Kemps.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by crashlander -[1] Pitto was the most effective ruck on the ground, but the Dogs reacted to our midfield and got on top from about midway through the 2nd quarter. That was really disappointing.
Cripps: 34 possessions, 12 clearances, 6 tackles ... if he'd held that mark it would have been a 3 vote getter. Having dropped it, Richard will probably get the 3 votes.
Still, Cripps was amazing in the ruck as well.Sam Walsh: 33 possessions, 4 tackles and 2 clearances.
George Hewett: 30 possessions, 8 tackles and 5 clearances.
Jagga Smith: 25 possessions, 3 tackles, 3 clearances:
All got a lot of the ball, but our inability to close the Dogs' midfielder down hurt us.
[2] Blake Acres:
Acres was very good today. 32 possessions and 10 marks. Davidson beat him early, but Acres came back ran Davidson into the dirt.
For that matter, Lord and Cerra did some good things as well. They just didn't get it 32 times.
[3] Our defence was patchy today:
The Dogs took marks they shouldn't really have, but for most of the time our defence was excellent. Harry Dean was impassable. Weitering wasn't bad, but he will be better for the game. And he won't get outmarked by Naughton next time either.
Nick Haynes had 26 possessions, 11 marks and 3 tackles to be probably our best defender on the day.
Our small defenders got a lot of ball, but made uncharacteristic errors that could have been lethal. Billy Wilson was lucky that Jones couldn't kick straight, even if he did have leather poisoning. Same goes for Ollie Florent. They need to be better next time.
[4] H was the dominant forward on the ground. When we ruled the middle, H was unstoppable. Later he was getting his kicks too far away from goal. But it was Will Hayward who made the opposition take notice. He dropped a couple of sitters, only to to take some serious hangers. His mark of the year contender was crucial.
Mind you, Patty Cripps almost managed to equal it. That he couldn't hold on almost cost us the match.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL Rd 21 2026 Carlton vs Footscray at Footscray
Last post by crashlander -[1] The Dogs had the top few possession getters for most of the day, but our guys came home with a wet sail.
Lucas Camporeale: 32 possessions to get us into the finals. Not bad. 12 marks, 3 tackles and 3 clearances, which hasn't been a significant part of his game.
Ollie Hollands: 31 possessions, 7 tackles and 6 clearances. And he managed a goal. If he leaves I will be disappointed. But it sounds like it is up to him.
Darcy Tucker: 28 possessions, 4 tackles and 5 clearances. We needed leadership and someone to play inside and Tucker was there. We might not have lost as many games if he'd be fit for more of the season.
Certainly, he stood up when Darcy Hogg was unavailable.
Lachie Fogarty: 25 possessions, 7 tackles, 5 clearances. He barely touched it in the first half, but came home look a missile. Probably playing some of his best football, but our midfield and half forward line have moved past him.
I don't expect to see him with us next year, but he would be good leader for the VFL side.
[2] Reidy probably ended up ahead, even thought he had a couple of taps left. He managed 14 possessions and 7 clearances. But he took only 1 mark. Not sure what his future is either, but he needs to get stronger if he to improve.
Hudson O'Keefe kicked 3 goals from 9 possessions, and got a few taps as well. Not sure where he is headed either.
[3] Our VFL boys keep contributing.
I've already mentioned Tucker. Taj Logan popped up this week with 22 possessions and 4 clearances. Not bad. Prout, Sammartino and Warburton weren't as prolific, but they played their part. And I must mention Dane Harvey, who has held down a key defensive post for most of the season. We lack key position types badly, but Harvey has really filled in a serious gap in our list. He had an ordinary patch midseason, when we were losing, but he has been a real positive this season.
Particularly today, when we had no Lewis Young and no Matt Duffy, who has also filled in that role. Also no Sam Paea today.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by kruddler -In the interview he said by the end of the game it felt fine.
Yep, called it at the time, i thought he broke (fractured) his ankle or something equally serious.
I think it could be season over for him, which is a shame.
Moir is the bloke with the talent to replicate what Hayward does.....but he's also the bloke most likely to go missing.
Wonder if Fraser can sprinkle some magic dust in his weetbix this week??
Probably didn't feel it at all.
Lets see how he wakes up tomorrow.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by kruddler -is it that much for 4%? Suppose that can be case this time of the year. I know you'd have done that maths so thinking you're right.
Needs to be a 20 goal margin (average 10 goal each way) for that % to be overcome.
Sorry i think i was looking at an 'unupdated' ladder.
Combined margin would be closer to 80 points
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by laj -I’m concerned that Wilbur may have suffered a syndesmosis injury or an equally serious lower leg fracture from his heavy landing. If so, it will create an opportunity for Ison, Moir or Hollands but we’ll miss Wilbur.
Let’s hope he’s OK 🤞
Yep, called it at the time, i thought he broke (fractured) his ankle or something equally serious.
I think it could be season over for him, which is a shame.
Moir is the bloke with the talent to replicate what Hayward does.....but he's also the bloke most likely to go missing.
Wonder if Fraser can sprinkle some magic dust in his weetbix this week??
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 23 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by laj -There's also a some smaller chance we go to the Gabba. Lions loss to the Pies, wins by Hawthorn over the Eagles and Geelong over Richmond, near certain, and a decent size win by Adelaide over GWS might make up the 4% deficit between the Crows and the Lions.
Needs to be a 20 goal margin (average 10 goal each way) for that % to be overcome.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 21 2026 In Game Angst Carlton vs Western Bulldogs at Marvel
Last post by LP -I checked the stats, 0 CBA's
I suppose that's just for any supplementary ruck if no goals were scored while they are having a run in the ruck. We also rucked Cripps against TDK, Cripps beat TDK in a stoppage contest. Really, my point is about the validity of asserting Young gave us a better balance due to his rucking, but we were still rucking Cripps.
Personally, I'm not sure what the right balance is, I not a fan of Harry rucking due to the risk, but I concede that Harry rucking helps to get him involved in games when he off the boil. If we had Young rucking and Harry off the boil what would be our preferred solution?
btw., I didn't go today, I don't go to ice dome ever, but my mates messaging me have told me if not for Weitering today we would probably have lost. They said his setup behind the footy was key to our not being overrun. Does that happen with Derksen in D50?
Derksen looked a bit off kilter today, a bit lost, I sure that is an instability issue, he's been a defender for 8 or 9 weeks. But is it just a short term thing or a long term effect, why does Derksen shifting ends all of a sudden make his marking less reliable?