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13
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by DJC -
Don't get carried away with the media hype about ONP.  It boils down to around 140,000 voters moving from centre-right to right and far right and that gives Labor a virtually unassailable majority.

The SA Electoral Commission is incredibly slow given the relatively small size of the electorate and it seems that it will be a while before the final results are known.  In the commission's defence, three-cornered contests always make it harder to determine which candidate's preferences are distributed.  At this stage Labor has a whopping 32 seats with eight seats still in doubt.  Such a puny opposition isn't really conducive to good government but Premier Malinauskas and Treasurer Koutsantonis both made the right noises about hubris and arrogance.  Time will tell.

It will be interesting to follow the Liberals' response.  On election night there was talk of reclaiming the centre, doing more to counter the rejection by female voters, and reducing the influence of non-parliamentary powerbrokers.  Again, time will tell.
15
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by Lods -
With an increased share of the vote will come an increased scrutiny of policies.

One Nation will be asked to clearly define policy direction, how it will be implemented and explain 'Where the money is coming from."
Do they have the organisation and discipline to work these things out, or is it all in Pauline's head with a little bit of input from Corey and Barnaby.
They've cobbled together a group that enabled them to contest a large number of seats, but as we've seen in the past it sometimes throws up some strange characters...so there is a bit of a question over their candidate selection methods.

That One Nation has done well in this election can't be denied.
But for the party, it now gets a bit real, and they need to move from a party of 'grievance' to one that can show that they can not only point out what's wrong with the country but they have solutions.
That's a much harder task.

The Liberal/ National parties are in a difficult position.
If they move to the right they may attract some of that One Nation vote...but that's not where elections are won.
It's in the centre.
What we may see in the next few months is some of the Nationals, spooked by the One Nation threat, jumping ship and joining up with ON.
It's in those regional seats where One Nation will have the greatest impact.
16
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by Thryleon -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Cant remember if it was in this thread or not,

But SA votes are going on and it appears one nation is getting a 20% swing in votes which is unheard of.
Looking at maybe 4 seats.

Most of those votes are coming from the libs who have a swing away of 16-17%, Labour 2-3%

I reckon Victoria will be similar.

I expect this to be a lot worse when the nothern states vote.

I think Labour and Libs need to take note of this now because Australia has clearly had enough.
The Australian public has simply had enough.

Between the teals and one nation getting ascendency, its becoming pretty clear, that our political parties are lacking credibility, and invariably are a different flavour of the same time of leadership.

This leaves people looking for disruptors which is the whole point of voting, but we need to be careful.

The only disruptor I can think of who came to power as being supposedly an "up yours" to politicians, was Donald Trump and look at how that is going...
17
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: Lods – on
I am surprised the primary vote held up as well as it did for One Nation
But it hasn't translated into many seats.
And there is the problem for people who aren't real fond of Labor Governments at the moment.
One Nation are pulling votes from the LNP in big numbers...minor numbers for the ALP
Labor actually increase their majorities in the Parliaments because the LNP and One Nation are fighting with each other for votes.
Voting One Nation is further empowering the very governments they have an issue with.
I think the obvious will happen and that One Nation will hook up with the Liberals/Nats at some stage, One Nation are popular not because they have any policies but because the major parties are so unpopular and incompetent.
Labor have proved fortunate with some very competent operators in Peter Malinauskas and Chris Minns at State level wall papering the cracks in Labor at Federal Level and giving Labor some credibility in the Media and with the voters.
No love for Albo even at Lakemba Mosque where he would have thought he was amongst friends after his lack of action regarding anti semitism and support for ISIS brides returning but he knows he still has a massive lead in held seats and the Libs are a rabble with little hope of bridging the gap unless they do something weird and team up with Pauline.
18
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Jim Park Award 2026
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
I had a look at the Saintsational voting for the games so far.
Tom had the second most votes in the Collingwood game-45 under their system
Nothing against Melbourne
and only a handful against GWS to this stage, but they haven't finished voting yet.

But that first game gained him enough that he's probably in the top 4-5 at the moment on their voting.
Hall, Sinclair and Wilkie are ahead of him, Windhager and NWM around the same

So, basically 1 game gets you top 4-5 after 3 games??
Wow, they are worse than i thought.

It's a bit like percentage
A big win in the first three rounds and a couple of close results, gives you an unrealistic percentage.
As the year goes on and more games are played it evens itself out and it's the consistent performers who end up at the top.

19
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by Lods -
I am surprised the primary vote held up as well as it did for One Nation
But it hasn't translated into many seats.
And there is the problem for people who aren't real fond of Labor Governments at the moment.
One Nation are pulling votes from the LNP in big numbers...minor numbers for the ALP
Labor actually increase their majorities in the Parliaments because the LNP and One Nation are fighting with each other for votes.
Voting One Nation is further empowering the very governments they have an issue with.
20
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by kruddler -
Cant remember if it was in this thread or not,

But SA votes are going on and it appears one nation is getting a 20% swing in votes which is unheard of.
Looking at maybe 4 seats.

Most of those votes are coming from the libs who have a swing away of 16-17%, Labour 2-3%

I reckon Victoria will be similar.

I expect this to be a lot worse when the nothern states vote.

I think Labour and Libs need to take note of this now because Australia has clearly had enough.