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11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Those numbers are a factor but using the video game analogy ive signed a player with the high rating and then swapped him for another who didnt have as high a rating but had some skills that were more complimentary and most importantly moved in a way that strengthened the whole.

This is where the discrepancy on both sides of the argument begins.  We had skull and kemp.  They will get theor time in the sun. We have a young moir and maybe a wildcard option in Ison. Using Brisbane Logan Morris is a 191 cm key forward. 

Kemp, ison and moir all have him for size. 

We dont know how this goes for them, and skull would be the player you wanted drafted.  Hes 20 years old and 200cm and played 5 games.

Using the Judd into cripps analogy, we all though cripps would do a job for us moving forward but he has gone from strength to strength in a way only thr most optimistic of people expected after his debut season.

Ultimately its the I told you so bit thats tripping you over.  You cant see the clubs attempts because you dont agree with it.  We havent neglected these spots at all, weve just taken alternatives to the types and players you would have.  Thats ok too, but the pudding is still in the oven and you are lamenting the ingredients used.  Thing is the oven could break before we get the pudding out.  We wont know but the change of ingredients wouldnt have likely impacted that.

I understand what you are saying about skill set, and as i said i tried to keep it simplistic as to not go into every attribute, but ultimately the argument remains the same.
A decrease in marking power vs an increase in tackling etc. It balances out somewhat for forwards if you want to play it that way (Personally i disagree, but there is no way for one to be proven right or wrong at this stage).

The area of midfield was the contentious one as there is very little improvement in that area from an incoming point of view, its all about development of those already in the system, largely off the back of the hope that Jagga can add something over and above what we already had to help cover for the tdk downgrade.

As for HOK being 'the guy'....well up until this off-season, he was a ruck. Now he's the answer up forward?
I'd like to hope so, but i think he's a long way off ticking that box at this stage. He averages 8 hitouts and 7 posessions. and 0.6 goals a game. Sure he will get better, but Lewis Young offered us 3 hitouts, 10 touches and .5 goals a game last year and is far from the answer.....and HOK hasn't got to that yet.

Kudos for understanding the analogy though, which is more than i can say for some others.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on


I don’t think you understand your post 🙄

Why mention Dean covering Silvagni, a HF and FP covering Charlie, or ask who will cover TDK if that’s not what you meant?

Is a HF and FPs imrproved output covering for Charlie like for like?? No its not.

I don't know the best way to get this across, but from a really simplistic point of view what i'm saying is this.
Think about it like a video game rating system.
Each player has their own strengths and weaknesses and an overall rating. Charlie might be an 88 / 100.
When you add up our best 2025 6 players in our forwardline, maybe we average 75.

If you simple swap out like for like and replace Charlie with.....HOK, maybe he is a 70. Our overall rating of our forward line goes down because we don't have a charlie replacement - like for like.

Now, let rejig our whole forwardline.
1. Charlie out - Hok in. (for example)
2. Durdin out - Ainsworth in
3. Motlop out - Hayward in.

Now, in a 'like for like' the first 1 is a loss, but the second 2 are a gain. So 'overall' we are covering charlie with the other 2 upgrades. This is your whole argument and one that i am going along with. How much it goes up, who knows. Does it get back to our '75' 2025 forward line base, is up for debate. But lets assume its a break even, even with some natural development of Moir helping that area.

My question is this.
What part of the midfield is improving enough to cover the loss of TDK? In 2025, maybe we were a 84 midfield.
If TDK > Pittonet, then in a like for like, maybe we drop to a 78 midfield in 2026.

What other areas improve to the point to make up for the 'points' we lost from pittonet taking over from TDK?
IS Cripps, Hewett, Cerra and Walsh going to get better? Asking a bit much there IMO, especially since Cerra and Hewett had their best years IMO.
So where is the other improvement coming from to cover for TDK? NOT in a like for like.

Why do you insist on one for one comparisons to "cover the loss of" whoever it may be?  It's a team game and changing structures and gameplans, and improving ball movement and running patterns can result in more scoring opportunities.  More accurate kicks for goal means a more efficient forward line and, combined with forward half defensive pressure, means fewer opposition rebounds and less pressure on our team defence.  Your video game analogy is fine, for understanding video games, but has absolutely no relevance to AFL list management or team performance.

Take our midfield for example.  Last season it was generally seven or eight of Cripps, Hewett, Walsh, De Koning, Cerra, Acres, Lord, Docherty and Pittonet, with Cottrell, Binns and Haynes getting a couple of games there as well.  Cripps was well down on his usual form, Walsh missed games through injury, Acres was struggling with his back.  This season we have Acres and Walsh back to full fitness, Smith ready to debut and Cripps, Hewett, Cerra, Lord and Pittonet from our 2025 midfield.  Then there's Ollie Hollands back from defence, Reidy, who is looking a much better prospect than I expected, and Chesser, the Camporeales with another pre-season under their belts, and Hayward, Ainsworth and Florent all capable of time in the midfield.  Collectively, our midfield cohort is significantly stronger than it was last season.

Swapping three players for three players is not "rejigging our forward line."  Rejigging our forward line is appointing a new assistant coach determined to end our forward line's reliance on one or two players, improving our connection and ball movement inside 50, creating more scoring opportunities, and requiring our forwards to have the complete and unconditional buy-in of successful teams.  Our list managers have given Josh Fraser the cattle he needs to achieve that.
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Thryleon -
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Is a HF and FPs imrproved output covering for Charlie like for like?? No its not.

I don't know the best way to get this across, but from a really simplistic point of view what i'm saying is this.
Think about it like a video game rating system.
Each player has their own strengths and weaknesses and an overall rating. Charlie might be an 88 / 100.
When you add up our best 2025 6 players in our forwardline, maybe we average 75.

If you simple swap out like for like and replace Charlie with.....HOK, maybe he is a 70. Our overall rating of our forward line goes down because we don't have a charlie replacement - like for like.

Now, let rejig our whole forwardline.
1. Charlie out - Hok in. (for example)
2. Durdin out - Ainsworth in
3. Motlop out - Hayward in.

Now, in a 'like for like' the first 1 is a loss, but the second 2 are a gain. So 'overall' we are covering charlie with the other 2 upgrades. This is your whole argument and one that i am going along with. How much it goes up, who knows. Does it get back to our '75' 2025 forward line base, is up for debate. But lets assume its a break even, even with some natural development of Moir helping that area.

My question is this.
What part of the midfield is improving enough to cover the loss of TDK? In 2025, maybe we were a 84 midfield.
If TDK > Pittonet, then in a like for like, maybe we drop to a 78 midfield in 2026.

What other areas improve to the point to make up for the 'points' we lost from pittonet taking over from TDK?
IS Cripps, Hewett, Cerra and Walsh going to get better? Asking a bit much there IMO, especially since Cerra and Hewett had their best years IMO.
So where is the other improvement coming from to cover for TDK? NOT in a like for like.

No!
Like for like is not the way to go.
And the figures you put on them are arbitrary and have no basis othe than opinion.

So, forwards....add Evans to the mix, Maybe Lij as well.
Harry played 12 games in 2025.
He was actually our most effective KPP with 1.83 goals per game.
Curnow played 18  games at 1.78 goals a game.
They only played 7 games together.
Surely we can cover Curnow's output with a combination of these players plus our existing forwards Motlop, Kemp Williams. We'll run some off the bench.

It'll be more than just O'Keefe

Mids- Lord (watch this space), Jagga, Ben C, maybe even Ison who looks a good size
Some of our mids may have their best days behind them, others have years of improvement ahead of them and will be guided by some experienced players. How quickly they come on is to be determined. But a combination of the youth and experience seems a good mix.
Yep we might even use cripps as a key forward if the midfield gets sorted.

His goal scoring record is quite good for a bloke who doesnt exactly kick them out of a clearance situation and spends so often at thr ball drop.
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on


I don’t think you understand your post 🙄

Why mention Dean covering Silvagni, a HF and FP covering Charlie, or ask who will cover TDK if that’s not what you meant?

Is a HF and FPs imrproved output covering for Charlie like for like?? No its not.

I don't know the best way to get this across, but from a really simplistic point of view what i'm saying is this.
Think about it like a video game rating system.
Each player has their own strengths and weaknesses and an overall rating. Charlie might be an 88 / 100.
When you add up our best 2025 6 players in our forwardline, maybe we average 75.

If you simple swap out like for like and replace Charlie with.....HOK, maybe he is a 70. Our overall rating of our forward line goes down because we don't have a charlie replacement - like for like.

Now, let rejig our whole forwardline.
1. Charlie out - Hok in. (for example)
2. Durdin out - Ainsworth in
3. Motlop out - Hayward in.

Now, in a 'like for like' the first 1 is a loss, but the second 2 are a gain. So 'overall' we are covering charlie with the other 2 upgrades. This is your whole argument and one that i am going along with. How much it goes up, who knows. Does it get back to our '75' 2025 forward line base, is up for debate. But lets assume its a break even, even with some natural development of Moir helping that area.

My question is this.
What part of the midfield is improving enough to cover the loss of TDK? In 2025, maybe we were a 84 midfield.
If TDK > Pittonet, then in a like for like, maybe we drop to a 78 midfield in 2026.

What other areas improve to the point to make up for the 'points' we lost from pittonet taking over from TDK?
IS Cripps, Hewett, Cerra and Walsh going to get better? Asking a bit much there IMO, especially since Cerra and Hewett had their best years IMO.
So where is the other improvement coming from to cover for TDK? NOT in a like for like.

No!
Like for like is not the way to go.
And the figures you put on them are arbitrary and have no basis other than opinion.

So, forwards....add Evans to the mix, Maybe Lij as well.
Harry played 12 games in 2025.
He was actually our most effective KPP with 1.83 goals per game.
Curnow played 18  games at 1.78 goals a game.
They only played 7 games together.
Surely we can cover Curnow's output with a combination of these players plus our existing forwards Motlop, Kemp Williams. We'll run some off the bench.

It'll be more than just O'Keefe

Mids- Lord (watch this space), Jagga, Ben C, maybe even Ison who looks a good size
Some of our mids may have their best days behind them, others have years of improvement ahead of them and will be guided by some experienced players. How quickly they come on is to be determined. But a combination of the youth and experience seems a good mix.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Thryleon -
Quote from: northernblue – on
I think Krudds is disappointed that we don’t have a young KPP to replace trading/losing H or C.
If we did we wouldn’t be looking at restructuring our attack we could replace like for like and plug and play.
I get that.  They arent the much vaunted option but skull, kemp and young are going to be first cabs off the rank to replace Charlie's presence.  Then we will change up to someone like moir, hayward and Ison which will be that smaller setup that is a departure from the way we currently structure up, but im hoping we get more of a return to form from others that were down to help bridge the gap between our worst and our best last season and hopefully our best in 2025 and 2026 look similar.  Again we wont know for sometime.  I think based on some of Chris Davies comments temper the expectations on Jagga for 26.  Thing is I reckon the absence of walsh in 2025 hurt us more than any other single player who wont be with us next year.  If he can. Have a big year then we might actually progress significantly in 2026.
16
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by Thryleon -
Those numbers are a factor but using the video game analogy ive signed a player with the high rating and then swapped him for another who didnt have as high a rating but had some skills that were more complimentary and most importantly moved in a way that strengthened the whole.

This is where the discrepancy on both sides of the argument begins.  We had skull and kemp.  They will get theor time in the sun. We have a young moir and maybe a wildcard option in Ison. Using Brisbane Logan Morris is a 191 cm key forward. 

Kemp, ison and moir all have him for size. 

We dont know how this goes for them, and skull would be the player you wanted drafted.  Hes 20 years old and 200cm and played 5 games.

Using the Judd into cripps analogy, we all though cripps would do a job for us moving forward but he has gone from strength to strength in a way only thr most optimistic of people expected after his debut season.

Ultimately its the I told you so bit thats tripping you over.  You cant see the clubs attempts because you dont agree with it.  We havent neglected these spots at all, weve just taken alternatives to the types and players you would have.  Thats ok too, but the pudding is still in the oven and you are lamenting the ingredients used.  Thing is the oven could break before we get the pudding out.  We wont know but the change of ingredients wouldnt have likely impacted that.
17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: Lods – on
Geelong didn't fight too hard, even though by all reports Charlie was desperate to get there.
So 'many' clubs is a bit of a stretch.

Charlie went for his optimum based, not on his 2025 performance, but on his past performances.
Have a look at some of the Sydney forums and you'll see they're happy to have him, but concerns remain over his injury history.


"Navy Blue Glasses" is getting a bit of  run in some places.
And yes, generally club supporters are optimistic about their chances ahead of a new season.
It's a fresh slate...and usually comes with few injuries and some new talent.

The thing is Navy Blue Glasses work work both ways...In and Out!

If folks are looking at the 'Ins' with Navy Blue Glasses then it's probably fair to say that others are looking at the "Outs" with the same Navy coloured glasses. They rate the players they will miss a little more highly than an opposition supporter might.

I suspect opposition supporters don't rate the 2025 version of Tom, Jack and Charlie as highly as some Carlton supporters...except perhaps the supporters of the clubs they are going to.

Judds first preference was Collingwood back in the day but he didn't fight too hard to get there for the same reason.
In both instances, the club didn't have enough to get the deal done. So they didn't waste anyones time.

Kudos to Geelong. They offered their best deal up front of 3x 1st rounders (if thats not trying then this argument is over). which we knocked back pretty quick. So Cats moved on rather than let it ruin their whole trade period.

Have a look at these very forums and see the consensus on Hayward and Florrent etc.
Look at those same opinions now. Its changed. The only thing thats changed is the colour of the jumper they are wearing.....and nobodys opinion has gotten worse in the meantime.
18
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: DJC – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Tell me you didn't read/understand my post without telling me you didn't read/understand my post.

I don’t think you understand your post 🙄

Why mention Dean covering Silvagni, a HF and FP covering Charlie, or ask who will cover TDK if that’s not what you meant?

Is a HF and FPs imrproved output covering for Charlie like for like?? No its not.

I don't know the best way to get this across, but from a really simplistic point of view what i'm saying is this.
Think about it like a video game rating system.
Each player has their own strengths and weaknesses and an overall rating. Charlie might be an 88 / 100.
When you add up our best 2025 6 players in our forwardline, maybe we average 75.

If you simple swap out like for like and replace Charlie with.....HOK, maybe he is a 70. Our overall rating of our forward line goes down because we don't have a charlie replacement - like for like.

Now, let rejig our whole forwardline.
1. Charlie out - Hok in. (for example)
2. Durdin out - Ainsworth in
3. Motlop out - Hayward in.

Now, in a 'like for like' the first 1 is a loss, but the second 2 are a gain. So 'overall' we are covering charlie with the other 2 upgrades. This is your whole argument and one that i am going along with. How much it goes up, who knows. Does it get back to our '75' 2025 forward line base, is up for debate. But lets assume its a break even, even with some natural development of Moir helping that area.

My question is this.
What part of the midfield is improving enough to cover the loss of TDK? In 2025, maybe we were a 84 midfield.
If TDK > Pittonet, then in a like for like, maybe we drop to a 78 midfield in 2026.

What other areas improve to the point to make up for the 'points' we lost from pittonet taking over from TDK?
IS Cripps, Hewett, Cerra and Walsh going to get better? Asking a bit much there IMO, especially since Cerra and Hewett had their best years IMO.
So where is the other improvement coming from to cover for TDK? NOT in a like for like.
19
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: northernblue – on
I think Krudds is disappointed that we don’t have a young KPP to replace trading/losing H or C.
If we did we wouldn’t be looking at restructuring our attack we could replace like for like and plug and play.

Yes and no.

Every year we DON'T draft a key forward is another year of development we have to go through before we get a young one coming through.
Had we have drafted a key forward when i first flagged this years ago, we'd have Charlies replacement already up to speed for AFL football and we would 100% have improved our list with the incoming players we got.
BUT, we didn't/haven't included anyone to take over from him and now we are left either....

a) completely rejog our forward line - which we are doing
b) Hope to poach a genuine replacement via trade/FA next year.....which genuinely comes at a premium price.

Now even if 'a' works out, Harry is a year older and needing a replacement in the future too.
If 'a' doesn't work out and 'b' doesn't work out, then we are wasting the remaining years of a-grade talent Cripps, Weitering, Harry etc.
THEN we'll go full rebuild.

People have accused me in the past, and continue to accuse me now, of focussing on the NOW. Nothing ould be further from the truth. I've always talked about list management from a long term point of view. Its why i've pushed for drafted KPPs so we don't get 'surprised' and caught out like we did this year when Charlie, Tom and Jack unexpectedly left. Its ruined our 2026 season when it could've been avoided.

Given what occurred, we did well to get maximum value for Charlie. We brought in players who (for the most part) offer us something we need or a potential upgrade on something we have. However, IMO, its not enough. IMO they've done well from a bad situation, but with a bit more forthought, we couldve really cashed in and improved our list.


Consider this, 3 years ago we drafted a KPF who is now ready to start each week and make a difference, say its a 40-50 goal a year option we have to go with Harry.
Charlie going nets us 3x 1st rounders and we have a replacement sitting there ready to go. We do the same trades and get the same players. How much better does our 2026 look?

Even if we want to change our forward setup to a 1-out option, with Kemp as the 2nd option, that allows us to play Harry more in the ruck and give us versatility there as well as cover for TDK. Harry around the ground gives about the same as TDK does.
Suddenly, we haven't lost anything in the ruck or up forward, simply by drafting a KPP years ago when i suggested, but we've managed to upgrade other areas in the process.

So its not necessarily about direct replacement. Its about options to what we can do.
Right now, we don't have a replacement so that limits our options.....and IMO our 2026 chances.

Even if we look at 2026 through the same eyes as 2025 with the same amount of injuries.
If Harry misses games.
If Pittonet misses games.
If Kemp misses the year.....or even just a few games.

Our forwardline/ruck setup will look like HOK, Reidy and Young. How many opposition clubs would be worried about how they need to combat that formiddable setup?


One last thing....
KP value is something you can cash in via trade.
So even if we drafted in one a few years ago that can cover for Charlie and Charlie stayed and returned to former glory, as did Harry, we can cash in and improve our list at the trade period.

Alternatively,
We draft small forwards who we keep replacing year on year and offer no value to us whatsoever. At the end of the day we traded in our (supposedly) best one for a future 2nd (and durdin - who was a 2nd rounder to begin with). How is that smart list management?
20
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pick our team in parts - Part 4 - 5 on the bench
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on


You're still focusing on one for one replacements and missing the big picture. 

We don't have to find a player to be like Charlie; we need to come up with a combination of players and a forward structure that works better than our forward line did in 2025.  We've got that with the addition of Hayward and Ainsworth, the return of Kemp, the development of Skull and Moir, Williams and Motlop in form, the emergence of Ison and better ball movement.

Harry Dean doesn't have to cover Jack's 10 years in the system, or his 12 games as a KPD; he simply needs to fit into a defensive combination that improves on our 9th ranked defence from last season.  That's the easiest challenge, particularly with Newey coming back from injury and Florent bringing talent, form, energy and great ball movement.

Again, we don't need to cover TDK; we need to come up with a midfield combination that's better than last season's.  Pitto is a perfectly adequate ruckman and Reidy is a bit of a surprise packet.  Skull and Harry are fine as part-time rucks, Jagga Smith looks like he's going to have a real impact, Acres looks like he's over his back complaint.

Forget about Tom, Jack and Charlie; they're the past.  Embrace the exciting new future!

Tell me you didn't read/understand my post without telling me you didn't read/understand my post.

I don’t think you understand your post 🙄

Why mention Dean covering Silvagni, a HF and FP covering Charlie, or ask who will cover TDK if that’s not what you meant?