Skip to main content ↑ ↓
Recent Posts
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by DJC -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
No one is negative about the boys.  Lucas pushed himself to the edge against hawthorn and ben hasn't even had a chance yet.  Pressure is off them this year.  Next year they'll need to be establishing their credentials, they just have to show they can compete at the level this year for mine.
I agree with all that except the "pressure off" aspect, I think the alleged expectations of their old man pile on the pressure unnecessarily. Of course the rumours might be bullsh1t, but if they aren't he's calling for a position of privilege that demands a level of performance.

I'd much rather they are eased into it, which is another good argument for bigger lists, but if the rumours are true he probably wouldn't accept them getting a lower paycheque. ::)

Scott is an experienced coach who would fully understand the pressures on young players and the intense competition for spots in an AFL team.  I’m pretty sure that he would also understand that parental interference and/or commentary won’t help.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Thryleon -
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

In fairness, the expectations on 20 something year olds is pretty low (globally, across all walks of life).

At 16 you are expected to start setting goals, and working out how to go about achieving them.  At 20, usually you are commencing that journey, with the biggest push towards it happening a couple of years earlier.

At 20, they are only young, they are inexperienced, they dont know.  By contrast, 50 years ago, my dad was 21, newly married with the first born on the way. 

Hell, myself I can describe as having it a little different.  I was 21, and doing more work on my social life, than in my career, learning and personal development, with the end result being not much until after my dad passed away which sort of shocked me into life, and made me re-assess where I was, and what I was doing.

I spent the majority of the next 10 years, realising I had frittled away a few years there, but over time, I have come to appreciate, that without doing it, perhaps I wouldnt have been able to set my radar correctly.

Either way, Im less critical these days.  You never know whats happening on the journey, and even on game day when they are out on the field, we have seen players commit an action over a dozen times, from a dozen different people.  Odds are the 20 year olds making those mistakes, are making those mistakes for the first time, and its part of their growth journey and it isnt an indicator of whether or not they will or wont make it.  Some of that is down to luck.



13
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by northernblue -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
A bloke at work just lost a cousin, flew to Thailand for one of those "holiday and dental" deals and never returned, the family had to fork out to repatriate the body and there was no refund, insurance invalid, dough done life gone for what looked like a 50% discount. Some might say he was lucky, there are many who return disfigured and end up paying fortunes at this end to have it fixed, if they can!

Another chap I know has decided the discount route, option one was local $20k several visits over a couple of months, implant job done for life he's 60 already. Options two was $2k, pull the lot, wait 6 months for the gums to decide to shrink and eventually have a false set or bridge for a fraction of the cost, what's 6 months of gumming a steak between friends? He's living on soup and looks like Ms McGillicuddy, and planning to have the falsies done in Bali, of course!



Good grief LP, turn it up 🙄
Luckily my Thai dentist didn’t manage to kill me, but maybe if I didn’t pay my bill he may have…
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by LP -
Quote from: Thryleon – on
No one is negative about the boys.  Lucas pushed himself to the edge against hawthorn and ben hasn't even had a chance yet.  Pressure is off them this year.  Next year they'll need to be establishing their credentials, they just have to show they can compete at the level this year for mine.
I agree with all that except the "pressure off" aspect, I think the alleged expectations of their old man pile on the pressure unnecessarily. Of course the rumours might be bullsh1t, but if they aren't he's calling for a position of privilege that demands a level of performance.

I'd much rather they are eased into it, which is another good argument for bigger lists, but if the rumours are true he probably wouldn't accept them getting a lower paycheque. ::)
16
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Im prepared to give the Campo's another 2 years, Im probably old school with father and sons and want to give them every opportunity as there is that connection to success Im clinging onto plus I like that Ashcroft/Daicos type of situation with two brothers in the team.
Kruds analysis of their pros and cons is fairly accurate and they probably lack in the areas we need them to be extra special in like disposal by foot and leg speed but I think both are footballers rather than athletes and in Bens case his blue collar approach will compliment the more silky Walker and Smith and he would be a good backup for Walsh moving forward.
Cripps and Hewett are in the back end of their careers and its going to be tougher finding replacements given Tassie will dominate the future drafts for a while.
Lucas was ok in his debut imo and showed something and its been disappointing seeing him not kick on. Having a leftie on the wing reminds me of Amon and D'Ambrosio at Hawthorn and Gulden at the Swans and there is something I just like about Lefties delivering the ball forward but he needs opportunity at senior level to improve his disposal under pressure.
re: Lord....like what he offers as I have said previously, 2 way player who competes like he cares.
re: Wilson....dont think he is senior level at this stage and I would probably have him in the delist basket at seasons end.
17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by kruddler -
Its not the only factor, but its one that you ignore at your own peril and will ultimately give you a better judgement than your emotional eye.

I've said i don't think they will make it and i've said its because i don't see anything 'outstanding' about them.
Shifter Sheahan always says you need to be elite at 'something'....and i don't see it.
This is also backed up by pre-draft rankings.
This is also backed up by draft day picks.
That is, 18 teams all had similar thinking.....that there was not anything to get too excited about with them.

Are they elite ball users?
Are they elite pace, endurance, agility?
Are they elite thinkers?
I can't say yes to any of them.

IMO, they are slower than average. Less skilled than average and do nothing elite to compensate.

Now there are plenty of those types who end up making it. Someone like Fraser Brown for example has similar traits and areas of need.....but he also had an elite tenacity and desire to compete that helped him out, never more highlighted by 'that tackle' where he simply would not be outdone.

So with that assessment, by the experts, the 18 clubs, statistical representation and by myself....expectations are low.
Is that definitive? No.
Is that negative? I don't think so.
Does that mean i don't hope and want the best for them? No, i hope they succeed as much as anyone.

However, when i'm picking my 2030 team and trying to find areas of need that need filling.
Its not in the middle with Jagga, Walker, Walsh......but it might be with those underneath them and on the wings.....Lord, Campos x2, Wilson etc
They are not 'locks'. Until then, keep drafting.
18
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by Gointocarlton -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
A bloke at work just lost a cousin, flew to Thailand for one of those "holiday and dental" deals and never returned, the family had to fork out to repatriate the body and there was no refund, insurance invalid, dough done life gone for what looked like a 50% discount. Some might say he was lucky, there are many who return disfigured and end up paying fortunes at this end to have it fixed, if they can!

Another chap I know has decided the discount route, option one was local $20k several visits over a couple of months, implant job done for life he's 60 already. Options two was $2k, pull the lot, wait 6 months for the gums to decide to shrink and eventually have a false set or bridge for a fraction of the cost, what's 6 months of gumming a steak between friends? He's living on soup and looks like Ms McGillicuddy, and planning to have the falsies done in Bali, of course!


Mrs McGillacutty
19
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by Gointocarlton -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Yep Kennett wants the Libs/Nats teaming up with One Nation to oust Labor if that happens and it works then I reckon it's a forgone conclusion it will happen at Federal level .
They'll be fragmented with nutters having a controlling vote!

Bigger nutters than Labours comrades the CMFEU/OMCG's? Doubt it.
20
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.

With all due respect Kruds
You've moved from individual player assessment to an argument over stats
Don't judge on the likelihood of a statistic coming to fruition
Assess the players, not just in their initial games, but over a body of work.

I understand the statistics
A pick 3 is a better chance of playing two hundred games than a pick 50
But if statistics were the only factor in football there would be no tipping competitions.
Results would follow the stats
Football is an unpredictable game, possibly one of the most unpredicatble in the world due to the shape of the ball and conrolling it, and a whole range of factors like momentum changes...just look at last weekends results.

But you're not relying on stats are you?
You're identifying individual players and saying you don't think they'll make it.
Is that based solely on where they were picked up?
Surely it's a bit deeper than that.

Lucas
Ben
Cooper
Billy

Will they all fail?
Will they all make it?
Will it be a half-half
Who knows.
I'd rather we just concentrate on their individual journey's and enjoy watching their development.
If they don't improve we can wait for the next batch.

But "I don't think they'll make it" ...is just a guess, one that once entrenched is hard to shake, and leads to a bias where every bit of bad play is highlighted in a match thread and every bit of good play is ignored.