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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Thryleon -Both the mental aspect and statistical aspect can play a part in predicting an outcome on a player...and yes, luck is also a factor-right place, right time, right coaches.
My original point was that a skinny 19-20 year old is not the same player as a 22-23 year old with 3-4 pre-seasons in a high performance strength and conditioning program.
Add to that the years of experience learning the tricks at an elite level and it 'can' be a completely different footballer.
So speculating that an individual won't make it is just a guess.
Statistics may give you a trend that shows the further down the draft the less chance of a long career, but there are enough exceptions to that rule to show that each player needs to be looked at as an individual rather than a draft pick.
@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.
It takes a bit of everything to be an AFL footballer.
Elite pace is nothing without something else that is average to above average.
Elite ball winning is nothing if you cant hit a target.
Elite marking is nothing if you cant kick it.
Elite kicking is nothing if you cant get the ball.
All of the above are useless, if you have no smarts.
Give me smart footballers, that have a work ethic, and you will see a flag winning outfit sooner or later, with a sprinkle of players that have elite qualities.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Lods -My original point was that a skinny 19-20 year old is not the same player as a 22-23 year old with 3-4 pre-seasons in a high performance strength and conditioning program.
Add to that the years of experience learning the tricks at an elite level and it 'can' be a completely different footballer.
So speculating that an individual won't make it is just a guess.
Statistics may give you a trend that shows the further down the draft the less chance of a long career, but there are enough exceptions to that rule to show that each player needs to be looked at as an individual rather than a draft pick.
@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by DJC -No one is negative about the boys. Lucas pushed himself to the edge against hawthorn and ben hasn't even had a chance yet. Pressure is off them this year. Next year they'll need to be establishing their credentials, they just have to show they can compete at the level this year for mine.I agree with all that except the "pressure off" aspect, I think the alleged expectations of their old man pile on the pressure unnecessarily. Of course the rumours might be bullsh1t, but if they aren't he's calling for a position of privilege that demands a level of performance.
I'd much rather they are eased into it, which is another good argument for bigger lists, but if the rumours are true he probably wouldn't accept them getting a lower paycheque.
Scott is an experienced coach who would fully understand the pressures on young players and the intense competition for spots in an AFL team. I’m pretty sure that he would also understand that parental interference and/or commentary won’t help.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by Thryleon -
Who is making definitive judgements?
Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.
Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.
Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.
I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it.
You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it
In fairness, the expectations on 20 something year olds is pretty low (globally, across all walks of life).
At 16 you are expected to start setting goals, and working out how to go about achieving them. At 20, usually you are commencing that journey, with the biggest push towards it happening a couple of years earlier.
At 20, they are only young, they are inexperienced, they dont know. By contrast, 50 years ago, my dad was 21, newly married with the first born on the way.
Hell, myself I can describe as having it a little different. I was 21, and doing more work on my social life, than in my career, learning and personal development, with the end result being not much until after my dad passed away which sort of shocked me into life, and made me re-assess where I was, and what I was doing.
I spent the majority of the next 10 years, realising I had frittled away a few years there, but over time, I have come to appreciate, that without doing it, perhaps I wouldnt have been able to set my radar correctly.
Either way, Im less critical these days. You never know whats happening on the journey, and even on game day when they are out on the field, we have seen players commit an action over a dozen times, from a dozen different people. Odds are the 20 year olds making those mistakes, are making those mistakes for the first time, and its part of their growth journey and it isnt an indicator of whether or not they will or wont make it. Some of that is down to luck.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Last post by northernblue -A bloke at work just lost a cousin, flew to Thailand for one of those "holiday and dental" deals and never returned, the family had to fork out to repatriate the body and there was no refund, insurance invalid, dough done life gone for what looked like a 50% discount. Some might say he was lucky, there are many who return disfigured and end up paying fortunes at this end to have it fixed, if they can!
Its like going to the dentist and finding you need root canal treatment and then subsequently a Crown, looking at $4K to get the job done and 6 hours total in the dentist chair or the alternative have an extraction for $150 in 15 mins.....how many people would stop and think I might need that tooth to be able to chew and eat my food or how many will just look at the price?
Another chap I know has decided the discount route, option one was local $20k several visits over a couple of months, implant job done for life he's 60 already. Options two was $2k, pull the lot, wait 6 months for the gums to decide to shrink and eventually have a false set or bridge for a fraction of the cost, what's 6 months of gumming a steak between friends? He's living on soup and looks like Ms McGillicuddy, and planning to have the falsies done in Bali, of course!
Good grief LP, turn it up 🙄
Luckily my Thai dentist didn’t manage to kill me, but maybe if I didn’t pay my bill he may have…
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by LP -No one is negative about the boys. Lucas pushed himself to the edge against hawthorn and ben hasn't even had a chance yet. Pressure is off them this year. Next year they'll need to be establishing their credentials, they just have to show they can compete at the level this year for mine.
I'd much rather they are eased into it, which is another good argument for bigger lists, but if the rumours are true he probably wouldn't accept them getting a lower paycheque.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by LP -Bigger nutters than Labours comrades the CMFEU/OMCG's? Doubt it.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -Kruds analysis of their pros and cons is fairly accurate and they probably lack in the areas we need them to be extra special in like disposal by foot and leg speed but I think both are footballers rather than athletes and in Bens case his blue collar approach will compliment the more silky Walker and Smith and he would be a good backup for Walsh moving forward.
Cripps and Hewett are in the back end of their careers and its going to be tougher finding replacements given Tassie will dominate the future drafts for a while.
Lucas was ok in his debut imo and showed something and its been disappointing seeing him not kick on. Having a leftie on the wing reminds me of Amon and D'Ambrosio at Hawthorn and Gulden at the Swans and there is something I just like about Lefties delivering the ball forward but he needs opportunity at senior level to improve his disposal under pressure.
re: Lord....like what he offers as I have said previously, 2 way player who competes like he cares.
re: Wilson....dont think he is senior level at this stage and I would probably have him in the delist basket at seasons end.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last post by kruddler -I've said i don't think they will make it and i've said its because i don't see anything 'outstanding' about them.
Shifter Sheahan always says you need to be elite at 'something'....and i don't see it.
This is also backed up by pre-draft rankings.
This is also backed up by draft day picks.
That is, 18 teams all had similar thinking.....that there was not anything to get too excited about with them.
Are they elite ball users?
Are they elite pace, endurance, agility?
Are they elite thinkers?
I can't say yes to any of them.
IMO, they are slower than average. Less skilled than average and do nothing elite to compensate.
Now there are plenty of those types who end up making it. Someone like Fraser Brown for example has similar traits and areas of need.....but he also had an elite tenacity and desire to compete that helped him out, never more highlighted by 'that tackle' where he simply would not be outdone.
So with that assessment, by the experts, the 18 clubs, statistical representation and by myself....expectations are low.
Is that definitive? No.
Is that negative? I don't think so.
Does that mean i don't hope and want the best for them? No, i hope they succeed as much as anyone.
However, when i'm picking my 2030 team and trying to find areas of need that need filling.
Its not in the middle with Jagga, Walker, Walsh......but it might be with those underneath them and on the wings.....Lord, Campos x2, Wilson etc
They are not 'locks'. Until then, keep drafting.