Carlton Supporters Club

Interesting that we have a handy comparative form guide, having both played the same opposition in consecutive weeks - the Crows pummelled the Suns last week by nearly 100 points, on their home deck. We beat them by 4 goals. I hope that's not a genuine indication of the disparity between us and the Crows. No doubt the Suns turned up to play yesterday.

The Crows have everything to play for next week, and if they don't throw everything at us, including the kitchen sink, then they're not fair dinkum, and the usual suspects will cop some serious heat.

On paper they still have a terrific forward line and a very good midfield. Should be a great game if both teams turn up.

Interesting that we have a handy comparative form guide, having both played the same opposition in consecutive weeks - the Crows pummelled the Suns last week by nearly 100 points, on their home deck. We beat them by 4 goals. I hope that's not a genuine indication of the disparity between us and the Crows. No doubt the Suns turned up to play yesterday.

The Crows have everything to play for next week, and if they don't throw everything at us, including the kitchen sink, then they're not fair dinkum, and the usual suspects will cop some serious heat.

On paper they still have a terrific forward line and a very good midfield. Should be a great game if both teams turn up.

...........................................

i hope our boys haven't spent too many petrol tickets yet.  in fact i hope they're going to play out the year strongly. it will be a real statement if we beat the crows. i'll be brave and pick us to win.

go blues

Need big games from Cripps and Kreuzer.
Both quiet last week.
Hopefully our backline has a good day, as when they’re on, they are very good.

Need big games from Cripps and Kreuzer.
Both quiet last week.
Hopefully our backline has a good day, as when they’re on, they are very good.

Losing K would be catastrophic.....coupled with the fact that the Crows had a bad loss and have been kicked from pillar to post by the media etc  I'd really like to win this one, but reality says a competitive loss by 4-6 goals.

Cripps/Special K aside, this is a very winnable game.

Injuries cannot be ignored when considering match outcomes, they are a valid excuse/reason for losing despite whatever spin coaches put on the situation!

Phillips in for Kreuzer

Eddie, Keath and Greenwood our for Cows

Watch out for Patrick Wilson from the Crows, been tearing it up in the SANFL, gets plenty of it and likes it rough...
Dont mind Eddie being out, was due to kick a few and glad to see the back of him. Andy Otten is a spud but will probably play a good game vs us
just to spite me.

Philips vs OBrien will be interesting......

Wonder if it would've been worth De Koning rucking given his totally dominate performance as the lone ruck two games ago in the VFL.

Philips can play a little bit, but i'm hoping he puts in one of his better performances.  TDK must be getting closer to getting another game, but he'd have to be very ready if he was to play as the number one ruckman.  Not an easy job for a kid.

Out of interest, I looked up Reilly O'brien for the Crows.  About to turn 24, 202cm, 101kg, 17 games.  He played a good game last week - 27 touches, 39 hitouts, 3 marks, 4 tackles.

O’Brien’s stats should be treated with caution; Essendon didn’t play a ruckman.

We will miss Kreuzer’s one percenters but, if Flip is on his game, his marking around the ground will be a bonus.  He is a competitive tap ruckman and should be more than a match for O’Brien.

The opposition rucks were BOG against Phillips in the early rounds,  even though I didn't think he was too bad.  

End approaching for Eddie I'm afraid.

If the cows can't win this Pyke is g-a-w-n.   Everything to play for.

Saturday 27 July

Summary Min 9 Max 14

Mostly cloudy.Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm Chance of any rain: 30% 

Melbourne area

Patchy morning fog. Mostly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely across the eastern suburbs. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon.

Phillips is playing for his career.

If Kreuz is not replaced for next year then Phillips will be retained imo. Lobbe would be the one to go.

I'd cut both of them and go to a recycle from somewhere else to be honest.

Neither of them do enough to warranty keeping, and De Koning will go past both of them as our ruck backup for next season.

If Kreuz is not replaced for next year then Phillips will be retained imo. Lobbe would be the one to go.

I'd cut both of them and go to a recycle from somewhere else to be honest.

Neither of them do enough to warranty keeping, and De Koning will go past both of them as our ruck backup for next season.

Been playing well weeks previous to that as well...Jacobs cant get back in and is playing SANFL.
Obrien was a stiff who didnt look like making it as a player ever and I couldnt see how he would ever make it but he has gone to the next level and is is very Kreuzer like at ground level.
Philips does an ok job but as Prof pointed out most of his opponents had very good games when he played earlier and he will need to play four quarters vs Obrien who is very fit.

The Blues to get the upper hand in the Adelaide pick swap

Even a few weeks ago, uttering the words "break even" in relation to Carlton and Adelaide's historic live pick swap would have been met with raised eyebrows.

For those who might have forgotten the details, during last year's national draft, the Blues shipped their 2019 first-round pick to Adelaide for pick 19 (Liam Stocker) and their first-round pick.

As it stands, the Blues are sending pick 3 in exchange for Stocker (already on their list) and pick 11, but the Blues are in good form, and the Crows... well, not so much. So is it beyond the realms that 16th placed Carlton can knock off the 8th placed Crows at the MCG on Saturday afternoon and swing the proverbial needle their way?

In short, no. Carlton are playing an attractive and attacking brand of football not seen since the Brett Ratten days, while the Crows have been made to look old and slow in recent weeks. Adelaide's record at the MCG doesn't make for good reading either; they played there twice last year for two big losses - by 47 points to the Tigers and 56 points to the Hawks. They're yet to play at the home of footy this season.


Adelaide can also expect a hostile crowd at the 'G, and not only because this is Carlton's 'Grand Final'. The Blues are smashing membership and crowd records despite their dour season, and last week posted their highest ever attendance against the Suns. The MCC is predicting a crowd of more than 46,000 on Saturday - which would be Carlton's largest ever home-and-away home crowd against the Crows.

Should the Blues win on Saturday and other results fall the way of the favourites, Carlton moves level with Sydney on 24 points -- and within striking distance of 15th spot on the ladder -- while the Crows open the door for a number of other teams to enquire about the final spot in the eight.

It's fair to say there hasn't been this much intrigue surrounding a Round 19 match involving Carlton for some time, so tune in on Saturday for the Liam Stocker Cup.

How much of the Crows selection decisions are down to Pyke thrashing around and player unhappiness?

Phillips played well in Round 1 but Nankervis with three goals was better on the night.  However, Phillips and Casboult is a more difficult proposition than Phillips and McKay.  It was the same in Round 2 with Phillips doing OK but he and McKay couldn’t match Lycett and Ryder.

O’Brien gets his share of hitouts and gathers lots of possessions for a ruckman but he doesn’t take many marks.  If Phillips is on his game, he and Casboult could force O’Brien to focus on trying to defend.

Phillips has to be backing himself in against a guy who hasn't played 20 games yet.

Phillips is severely underrated IMO.

He might not be able to hunt the ball like Kreuzer does, but lets face it....who can Nic Nat, Grundy and Gawn aside (the elite).
However, Phillips is a better mark than Kreuzer. I reckon he's a better kick at goal too. 54% vs 45% in Phillips favour.

He's had just as many injuries as Kreuzer has, but has shown he can perform when having an extended run at it.

His ruck craft is very good.

Both Phillips and Kreuzer win 40% of their ruck battles.
However Phillips is better with his taps, 33% are hitouts to advantage.
Compared to Kreuzers 25%

What does that mean in real world terms?
Say your ruckman gets 24 hitouts a game.
Both Phillips and Kreuzer will get their hands on 10 of them first.
But with Phillips 8 of them will go to our advantage.
Only 6 of them will go to our advantage from Kreuzer.

You'd think that this basically translates to 2 extra clearances per game from our mids with Phillips.

Kreuzer gets more clearances per game than Phillips does, but only by 1.

So ruck wise, we are 1 clearance better when rucking with Phillips than we are with Kreuzer.

Phillips also has more agro than Kreuzer.

It doesn't help that Phillips opponents have been best on ground so far this year when he has played which is the fact you have ignored here.

I am thinking we should upgrade Kreuzer, and keep him as the backup for our new first choice ruckman.

Phillips drops to 4th choice behind De Koning.

Subjective.

I didn't point out that Kreuzer was made Witts' b!tch last week either.

I'm not suggesting either of them are elite and will win on any given day, just based on output Kreuzer is not necessarily better than Phillips.
Kreuzers best > Phillips best.
Kreuzers average =< Phillips average.

Moneyball.

Phillips has to be backing himself in against a guy who hasn't played 20 games yet. Kreuzer got belted last week and we couldn't buy a centre clearance. Hopefully this week will be improved. Do the Crows have a tagger?

^^

Semantics aside, his opponents were dominant.


Thats the point though.  Kreuzer was beaten by Witts, but Witts would beat most of the leagues ruckmen.

^^

Semantics aside, his opponents were dominant.


Thats the point though.  Kreuzer was beaten by Witts, but Witts would beat most of the leagues ruckmen.

I thought Kreuzer was clearly hampered last week - couldn't jump, run, bend etc as he normally would!

Dow is in for Fisher (ill)

The female umpire that hates us is umpiring our game.  ::)

Get ready for soft fees paid to our opposition when she is in the area.

It's a good thing for Phillips if she starts throwing the football up, he should comfortably jump over the opponent, but if she bounces she can't bounce it over a jam tin and that works against Phillips.