Tonight is the night and Crippa is, again, one of the favourites.
Crippa was our best 10 time this season. However, we did not win many of those games. I would say that he is unlikely to bring home the prize. However, I can hope!
It’s looking like Dangerfield by the experts, but I think Neale will get the rewards.
Crippa got 20 votes last year in a side that only won 2 and got flogged in many - so he is clearly a 'vote-catcher' which goes a long way to getting the gong.
We can only hope.
If he isn't in the top three. something is radically wrong.
There are 4 guys ahead of him in the betting. Really any of these guys could win it.
$2.50 Dangerfield
$5.00 Neale
$6.50 Fyfe
$7.00 Bontempelli
$11.00 Cripps
$15.00 Grundy
$21.00 Treloar
$34.00 Macrae
$34.00 Tim Kelly
Interesting that 3 of t he top 4 blokes should all have been suspended in a less contrived world.
That's short for Dangerfield, bookies unlikely to get it wrong by that much
As much as I love Cripps I think Neale would be my favorite followed by Fyfe.
Vic based commentators and bookies always underestimate interstate players, also they have huge positive differential in Free For / Against with Neale (+34%) and Fyfe (+33%), while Cripps(+23%) and Dangerfield(+13%) are closer to 50/50! Neale gave away 50% less frees than the other three!
A Brownlow smoky could be Jackson Macrae!
Kelly was the better player all year. Seems to have been forgotten!
Good point, should take some votes off him. If Cripps doesn't win I'd be happy for Neale to win it
Kelly should be leading it from about rounds 7-12 . It just depends on if Danger can chase him down.
Yes, Crippa was a vote catcher, but despite all his votes last year, i think he only had 2x 3 vote games......our wins from memory.
Cripps was better at the start of the year than he was at the end. If he can steal a few 3 voters early on instead of just 2's and 1's, then his name might get him a couple of 'C. Judd - 3 votes' games on the back end......that is games where he was not BOG, but his name gets him 3 anyway.
I've had a couple of shekels on Crippa leading after 5 rounds....... Go you good thing!!!
Yep, not bad for a WAFL hack is Kelly, I think he will steal votes from Danger for sure ..I'm going to go Grundy to win it from the Bont and Fyfe/Cripps.
Cripps will suffer from the BOG has to come from the winning team syndrome IMO and probably wont get enough 3 votes, lets hope I am wrong as our man is every bit as good as any of the top fancied players and we deserve some luck..
Id be getting on Bontempelli for this one.
What about Cripps to poll more votes than the rest of Carlton combined, paying $5.50
According to what I heard on radio earlier today Cripps is more likely to come with a rush in the later rounds. Whether that will be enough is unclear. Best of luck to him though!
I reckon you have a couple of doggie mids stealing some votes off him.
Who is stealing votes of Cripps? Nobody. If the umps award votes to us, he's getting them.
Same thing with Neale. Who is taking votes off him? They won a lot more games than us too.
Zorko, Lyons and Cameron?
Walsh was an umpires favorite at junior level, I reckon he might poll ok...
He's predicted to not get a single vote.
I haven't heard the pundits mention Walsh much if at all. Could be a dark horse?
I'll be surprised if Walsh gets any votes at all. The umpires give votes to the big names
True but it would be great for him to snag just a few.
He will get some. Maybe five?
I heard Liam Lenton talking about Brownlow Medal voting bias on the wireless today. Here’s an excerpt from his article in the Conversation:
It’s an interesting analysis and the conclusions seem to reflect the data - even though not many skippers have won recently.
Close so far, it's a 9 way tie in the lead after round 1. ^-^
Cripps got 2 more votes than predicted in R3. (Expected finish 2nd)
He was 2 votes behind Danger, who has polled as expected thus far, who was expected to win it.
If the rest of their votes go as predicted, those 2 will share it.
Obviously, plenty of others who will have their say, but Cripps had to make up 2 votes on danger, and he's done that after 2 rounds, so thats a good sign.
Worth noting Jack Martin got BOG in R2.
Perhaps he's not as bad as some make out.
I think he will be our second best vote gatherer behind Cripps...
Cripps is consistently picking up votes in losses. That’s a good sign :)
Thank you Patrick!!! Now keep going!!
https://www.afl.com.au/brownlow-medal/predictor
That shows who should get what votes and where.
For Cripps, its been spot on, except he got 3 votes instead of 1 in R2.
Unfortunately 2 instead of 3 against Collingwood.
Here's some of the favourites and how they are voting compared to predicted.
Cripps (+3)
Danger (-)
Bont (+2)
Neale (+3)
Fyfe (-)
Kelly (-4)
If that continues, Cripps wins over danger by 1.
I heard Crippa's early polling was the highest ever. I think it was 13 after 5 rounds but can't confirm. We'll take all the small wins...
All the best Crippa.
Correct.
Fyfe just got back to back 3 votes in games he was not expected to get a single vote.
Spanner in the works there.
That puts him winning the medal, with Cripps 2nd if it continues as expected. :(
Vs Brisbane is the next game. Guaranteed 3 votes there and Neale none.
Player (expected) +/-
Cripps (26) +3
Danger (28) -1
Bont (22) +2
Neale (24) -1
Fyfe (25) +6
Kelly (24) 0
Fyfe has 20 votes when he was "supposed" to have 14.
We have a bye and two games Cripps missed in the next 3 rounds.
Fyfe expecting 3, 3, 2, 1 from here.
Cripps expecting 3, 3, 1, 1
Cripps a vote behind Fyfe and expecting to get a vote less than Fyfe from here.
....although Cripps not expecting a vote in the thrashing from cats, despite getting 35 touches, 13 clearances, 8 tackles and 1 goal. Might sneak a vote or 2 in that, Danger to get the 3 with 34 and 4.3
Eddie wins goal of the year.
Not bad for an old bloke.
Maybe we should recruit him.....
Cripps was to supposed to get 3 in Rd 17, sadly got none.
And the winner is. Nat Fyfe.
You can all go to bed now.
Fyfe got a 3 instead of a 2.
Its his medal to lose.
Danger will get 3x BOGs in the last 3 rounds and should finish on 28 votes.
Fyfe only needs 1 more to cover danger off and is expecting 2 more BOGs.
Cripps should've got 3 against the swans...and is only expecting 5 more from here.
How could you possibly compare Fyfe to Cripps? Another sad joke.
All over with 2 rounds to go. Fyfe is 7 ahead.
Predictor was close overall except for Fyfe, who got 8 more than predicted.
Dangerfields sooky face once he knew he had lost was a carbon copy of Ablett when he was favourite to win. Like a spoilt kid that didn’t get his way.
No wonder they are so disliked.
Fyfe a worthy winner imo. Likeable fellow. Well done.
That was Cripps last chance to win a brownlow.
Walsh and co will start pulling their weight a lot more from here on out.
Disappointed.
Boy the club owe Cripps with some proper team success ASAP! What a season for him in a team languishing on the bottom for most of it. Unbelievable.
Fair point.....Fyfe will go down as a great now he has two brownlows but Cripps might get that couple of premierships
that Fyfe wont unless he leaves the Dockers.
Geelong loses twice ... perfect
Cripps was stuffed after carrying the midfield for half a year with 4 kids trying to help him.
Second half of the year he faded.
Might bode well for the team when the load is spread properly
I said just that when I saw Dangerfield's sulky puss face???? well deserved non winner imo
Don’t agree. Cripps hasn’t peaked yet the majority of the leagues best are at their peak.
Plus we will win more next year and winning teams get more votes.
I’m very confident he will have 2 at least before his career is over.
Walsh polled well for a 1st yr draftee.
Well done to all our boys who got votes.
Fyfe is a very worthy winner and a great player.
Well done Cripps, I think the votes basically went as expected.
It's tough to win the Brownlow now if you are Vic based and you have a interstate player in form and playing most games, they get votes at their home ground, the crowd influence means the big names only have to play half a game to poll a vote at home.
For example Rnd 23, many media had Cripps potentially BoG in a losing side with Dangerfield and Ablett, yet he didn't even poll a vote at Simonds Stadium! Round 17 Cripps was nearly unanimously BoG in media, and didn't even get a vote, we had Newman BoG though!
Brownlow voting in some respect is no different to awarding free kicks!
The key to getting Cripps a Brownlow is for Carlton fans to sign up and show up with their voice volume set to 11!
This is another hidden cost of ditching Princes Park, the Collo gift that keeps on giving!
Agreed, the only thing is I found some of the voting didn't follow form lines, there were votes when none were expected. But I won't look at it in detail until tomorrow.
Both he and Dangerfield should have had asterisks against their names!
Fair point, but Im not so sure.
Dusty managed a brownlow, norm smith, and flag all in one year.
Cripps could do that.
Fyfe told you the secret to his success last night, team-mates who willingly sacrifice for him!
FFS, we throw our players to the wolves by comparison!
Handbaggers can think about that as they watch Tuohy and Henderson jog on by another pummeled team-mate!
I'd argue we became a better side in the 2nd half of 2019 because we became less dependent on Cripps, I said as much in one of the match day threads, that Cripps was learning to sacrifice so that the team benefits, he can influence games without being the driver!
Do you think Wallsy going ballistic post match had anything to do with the team's renaissance?
Congratulations to Fyfe who won well and spoke very well.
Hawthorn had 14 players poll.
Carlton, Port, Richmond and St Kilda had 13
Everyone else except Melbourne (7) and Gold Coast (5) had 10-12 players get votes.
Carlton finished 12th in terms of total votes for clubs and 15th for average votes per player (4.62)
Not that you would use Brownlow votes as a metric, but we did better than our finishing position on the ladder.
Mainly because of one guy - stating the obvious, the load needs sharing.
Most pleasing was that many of our vote-getters are from the younger brigade - Walsh, SPS, Setterfield, McKay, Weitering, Kennedy, Charlie. Makes quite a change from the same-old names that have appeared during recent years.
Well, he got six. You earned them son
Interesting stat.
Cripps has never polled a Brownlow vote against a team lower on the ladder.
All his votes (ignoring round 1) have come when playing a team higher on the ladder.
He is certainly a great leader.
btw... I predict that stat will end next year when we start winning more games than we lose :)
I see the whole things - Fyfe winning - as contrived.
Round 10 - they beat Brissy by 1 point.
AFL report - Fyfe listed as the 6th best freo player (Hill 1st) - Fyfe 3 votes.
Round 14 - bad loss to Dees, Fife gets a vote and Hill was named Freo's best
Round 17 - bad loss to Hawks - gets 3 votes.
i watched that game, no way was he BOG.
Round 21 - pipped by the Saints
3 votes - maybe.....
Still, prefer him to Danger (the latter makes me want to puke)
He got 2 votes against us.
Jack Silvagni beat him soundly after half time. I dont understand how he polled votes that day.
I’ve that Freo game a Few times and he was dead on his feet but kept going - it was noticeable to me. Not sure he should’ve been gotten 2 but thank the universe Dangerfield didn’t get it ????????
Of course it would’ve been great for Cripps and deserving but he missed 2 games and played in a team that lost its coach mid year whilst on the bottom of the ladder - amazing effort by him ????????
I was at the game. He had a stellar patch (maybe in Q2) otherwise did sfa....
Cripps want a premiership medal, not a poser medal.
Cripps has what no other person has, or will ever have.
A BOG/superboot winner in AFLX.
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He has that effect on me too. Amazing isn't it - our human propensities. Love what we love (insert Navy ????) and hate what we hate (insert Danger and his puke evoking coach????)
Danger is the new James Turd!
Don't forget if you meet them to walk away backwards bowing, and never turn your back!
My final thoughts on the Brownlow. In Round 18 Liam Jones got 10 coaches votes. Both coaches thought he was the best player on the ground. The umpires didn't think he was in the top 3 on the ground. Exactly the same thing happened to Levi Casboult in Round 22, 10 coaches votes, 0 Brownlow votes. The AFLPA MVP is a much more meaningful award, even if it doesn't have the history and glamour about it
You think the AFLPA would switch onto this and monetize the event, I suspect it would become more prestigious and lucrative than the Brownlow in no time at all. Money directly in their own pocket! The same applies to the AFLCA.
To me it's a simple hierarchy;
Player Awards (Peer voted, big sample size, premium and meaningful)
Coaches Awards (In the know, but some bias)
Club Awards (A tad political)
Umpire Awards (Close observers, midfield biased, some bias(see Diesel))
Media Awards (Just Corrupt)
Good summary LP, I agree