This looks to be a tough game for us, as we only play one half of football.
On the other hand, we do match up fairly well against Freo.
Cripps may return. We need him.
They are still without fyfe...and cerra has changed jumpers. Surely that was their best area against us in the past, and now it's non existent and we are much improved.
- Silvagni is an excellent contributor against non-ruckman opponents - however, I think we need a better back up ruckman unless the Duckers are similarly limited.
- Newnes performed admirably (especially early) and seemed more dangerous in attack (although he missed some opportunities) than LOB has been - deserves to hold his spot.
- Cottrell was good enough and deserves to hold his spot.
- Parks was passable as our 3rd tall defender but might struggle to hold his spot if a better option is available.
- Martin and Fisher showed up at stages - Durdin and Owies had limited opportunities but consistently delivered pressure when the ball went forward (not so often in the 2nd half) - one of them might get a rest (for team balance) if we need to play a back up ruckman.
- Kennedy has gone off the ball the past 2 weeks but probably has enough credits in the bank to hold his place.
If Cripps is fit he should come in - also want to add seasoned hardened pros like Plow into the team.
From what I’ve seen, Freo are in some good form. This will be a challenge against a side that’s in a similar position to us in terms of the rebuild thing.
Will not be an easy game. A win here would be a great result. None of our next four or five games are easy. It with probably come down to on field leadership.
Will be one tough assignment. Here's hoping
After Freo, we play North and then the Crows over here. That's pretty easy.
MAV. We haven’t had great games against the Crows or North when we expected wins in recent seasons. We find a way to mess up the games we need to lock away. I hope North and the Crows are easy games. Better still. Let’s just hope we beat Freo and take it one game at a time.
No such thing these days. North was supposed to be easy last year, too.......
But doesn't that just mean there are never any easy games? Doesn't that mean there's no point taking into account who we play in the next month because they're all danger games? The fact is that North and Adelaide were bottom sides last year and popular picks for the bottom of the ladder this year (and now the Crows have lost Rory Sloane). I'll go out on a limb and say that playing North & the Crows would be easier than playing Melbourne & Brisbane (or Sydney, or Geelong or St Kilda etc).
Against Freo, how do we deal with their twin towers? Rory Lobb at 207/106 & Matt Taberner 198/98 will be a handful and that probably means Lewis Young is a selection certainty.
On Footy Classified last night, Kane Cornes did a spot on how Taberner has improved his goals per game steadily over a decade to become a very good KPF. He did this in part by a bit of statistical legerdemain: he noted Taberner has so far this season kicked an average of 3.8 goals per game. The reason why that's probably a bit misleading is that he kicked 7 of them against Essendon on the weekend, meaning he's only kicked 4 goals in the other 2 games he's played. Maybe kicking 7 against an imploding Essendon is an outlier whose influence over the average may fade as the season goes on. Still, he's a big enough threat to draw Weitering as an opponent, especially as my impression of Lobb is that he prefers to play as the leading forward which would drag Weitering out of position.
Freo also have a natural defender to put on Harry: Alex Pearce stands at 201/99. Sean Darcy at 203/112 in the ruck might be a grind for Pittonet who might need a bit of help.
There are no 'easy' games. Take any opponent with less than 100% preparation and focus and you'll be in trouble.
This Saturday night's game will likely be our toughest test of the season. We're meeting a very good side in very good form on their dung heap. Probably the most in-form side we'll have played this season, delivering our biggest test, thus far. 2 good quarters is highly unlikely to cut the mustard.
I think the chance of us winning this week is very slim, but not without hope.
- We've given up about 15 goals in two consecutive second halves.
- Because of that we played to the death in 28° C heat in the middle of the day, from which we get to have a 6 day break.
- Freo had a cool of the evening bruise free cruise fest against the AFL's most piss-weak opponent.
- We've looked rattled and lethargic despite getting off to fierce starts.
For me if we win on the Perth road trip six days after a 28° C full time death struggle, it will be like buying the cheapest Tatts Quick Pick and winning the mega jackpot, it's not impossible but it's very very unlikely.
Do you think we're more likely to beat North or Melbourne? Where do you think the bookies would fix the line in those 2 games?
I'm looking forward to this game.
I think we'll learn a bit about where we really sit and any issues we may have.
A few questions might get some answers.
There has been an incredible gap between our best and worst football this season.
Is there a fitness issue? That may not necessarily be a total negative depending on training loads and where we sit in the training cycles...but it may be leaving players struggling at the end of games.
Is the game plan we are trying to develop just a bit in front of where we are physically and as the season progresses will we handle those physical pressures better?
Is it more a mental issue. We get leads and relax just that little bit. Both our own players and the opposition have in the back of their minds that Carlton can be a bit flaky and susceptible to wilting. When it begins it's hard to reverse.
In games like the Gold Coast did we go in a bit overconfident, thinking the task would be easier and weren't prepared for the pressure they brought.
Some of these things aren't new, they've become ingrained over the last few years.
Reversing some of these issues is one of Voss's goals...and it may take the best part of the year to see how he manages the task.
The thing about the up-coming game is that there will be no illusions.
Don't come prepared, or drop the effort after getting a good lead, and Fremantle will punish us ruthlessly.
It will probably be a tough contest but I suspect that Freo is just a tad over-rated. After all, the teams they've beaten sit 13th to 16th on the ladder and we've beaten the 8th, 10th and 11th teams :)
If Cripps is fit to play, Newnes has to go out. Dow will miss out again and no-one in the magoos really put their hand up apart from Plowman. I can't see Plowman coming back in at this stage.
Andrew Brayshaw is the key. He is their Cripps, a contested ball beast who can generate momentum. If Hewitt can keep him quiet in the 1st quarter, we might just get away to a flyer. Then again, Will Brodie is also doing well at winning contested possessions, so it's not as simple as keeping Brayshaw quiet.
As much as Silvagni gives his all, not sure we can ask him to go up against Lobb. TDK probably needs to play this week, irrespective of his VFL form on the weekend.
One thing we need is a bit of pace....watching that Freo game, they were very quick on the outside and it's not an area we're overly blessed with. IMO, I'd have Dow in the team this week and play him off a wing even if Cripps comes back in. Setterfield needs to be dropped...forget the stats, he's not contributing at all and lost count of the number of panic handballs he made to a team mate under more pressure.
I'm not sold on Parks at this stage. Young was good in his first game for us but has looked very shaky in recent weeks. He's good for the spoil in a contest but that's about it when the ball hits the ground...too many panic decisions.
Maybe Fisher and Dow on the wings? I thought Sunday was probably Fish's best game this year and he used the ball really well.
Cottrell lacks nothing in endeavour but his disposal lets him down but I thought he was pretty good in the latter stages. Newnes....hmm...not sold on him either. I think we can do better and he's not the future.
I'm a fan of Dow on the wing, agree on Setterfield and Parks.
Cottrell was ok and gives you effort and I thought was good when the game was on the line. Not the future but a steady Indian until we get a few others up to speed like Honey, Carroll, Philp.....
Is Bailey Banfield Jack Silvagni's secret twin? Frederick has a bit of toe. Maybe Saad would be a good matchup albeit he gives away a couple of inches. What's happened to Sonny Walters? He's fallen off a cliff. There was a time he'd generate a lot of talk at match committee about how to curb his influence. Hayden Young is a HBF with elite disposal by foot. Might be worth having a defensive forward to look after him.
We need to inject speed around our clearances, Dow needs to come in and when Cunningham is ready same with him, the wing position is now a specialist player who can run all day, one defensively and the other offensively for me O'Brien and Cottrell fit the bill.
Darcy from memory was a good player last time Freo played and I agree he will be hard work and IMO we need TDK back in because Lobb while not an A grade ruckman is a big unit and we cant keep asking JSOS to play on bonefide rucks with a big size advantage.
Freo looked like they have moved on from the Fyfe/Mundy era and are looking to their kids like Brayshaw, Serong, Brodie and ODriscoll. Reckon this will be a tight game and I dont expect Taberner, Curnow or McKay to kick bags but will require a 4 quarter effort from most players and not half a game like in previous weeks....
Yep Darcy smashed TDK, but we had no Pitto. Dow was BoG, might be the right time to unleash the beast!
Brayshaw and Cerra had good games against us, but it was mostly with no Cripps who was injured early.
If I recall Weiters had a good day, but they'll have an extra tall this time around.
I agree that we have to play two rucks against Freo but is De Koning up to contesting against Darcy and Lobb?
If McDonald's good to go, I'd prefer to see his strength, experience and maturity put to the test. Alternatively, McDonald could slot back in as KPD and Young could have the back up ruck duties. I know Young is inexperienced but he seems more comfortable in a test of strength than De Koning.
If we do bring in a second ruck, who goes out?
Doesn't have to be, he just needs to compete and make sure they don't get any respite, if not they will remain too fresh and dominate as the game goes on, especially given Taberner will also do some F50 stoppage work.
CheatsFC went in with three rucks and did OK but got smashed everywhere else, however Philips did a hammy in the 1st Qtr and it's after that when Freo launched so it may be a tell! I think it's a mistake trying to make TDK go head top head physically, his best gig at the moment is getting in the possession chain and on his bike to cover as much ground as possible and make himself a marking target.
If Cripps is out, we'll also have to come up with something to curtail Mundy who compliments Brodie and Serong nicely.
One thing I'd like to see is not having too many tals inside F50 at once, so primarily I'd want SoJ and TDK in the back 2/3rds of the ground and only push forward if BigH or Charlie are off or pushing up the ground themselves. We've got some reasonable users in the midfield and HBF flank now, we need to make better use of occasional smaller targets to mix things up.
They both get blown over by a stiff breeze imho. Young not up to it competitively and needs to run and jump at it ala De Koning.
Based on the last few games, IMO Young is more use to us that TDK. The latter has a very long way to go. As a footballer, his younger brother down the highway has gone passed him at a rate of knots.
Cheeky fella.
Kangabies, of course, but that does not mean it'll be easy and nor should it be approached as such. A 'should win', of course. But again, that doesn't mean it'll be easy.
Perhaps we can compromise by saying "relatively easy" ;D
Looks like Cripps wants to play badly. I'm not all that surprised, but I hope we don't play him if he isn't ready to go. I hate playing half fit players.
I think Kennedy is a carrying a quad injury. He may well be sitting out if Cripps wasn't already out.
Heath Chapman and Hayden Young out with COVID for Freo....that's two of their best medium sized, running half-backs. Some talk over here that there might end up being one or two more before Saturday! There's 3 others but not blokes that are in their starting 22.
Every little bit helps :)
Hope he wants to play well, not badly, Crash! :D
Been talk that Luke Ryan might also be doubtful, cant see Freo being able to compete if they lose too many players to CoVid, they just dont have the depth IMO and this might be good timing for us to steal an away win which has been rare in recent years.
Remember, Lachie Schultz is presumably returning after a week on H&S Protocol. Griffin Logue, a 194cm defender, would be a possible in given that he was very unlucky to lose his spot last week after being in the best against the Giants.
EB....their backline is probably one area where they have multiple options to cover a few players out. Joel Hamling hasn't been able to get a game and Griffen Logue was dropped for last week despite getting votes in the AFLCA Award the week before. They've also still got Ethan Hughes and Nathan Wilson who were previously regulars in their back half. Logue will probably come back in this week.
Pearce and Cox down back will be much harder for McKay and Curnow compared to what they had to deal with last week. But it all comes down to the work in the middle. When we've been firing in first/second quarters, it's been out of the middle quickly and into the tall forwards....it's where the 6/6/6 rule works IMO.
Surfie, Hamling is a good footballer going by his work for the Dogs and Wilson also handy.Havent seen as much of Logue but he was an early pick from memory and a good size as Mav suggested.
Chapman and Young are more the good kicking rebound type and I was thinking it's that rebound and setting up play further up the ground that might be missed and Ryan is their key intercept player.
It'll be a clash of styles. We are now a contested ball team. Our centre square crew tries to win the ball from the centre bounce or stoppages around the ground with quick kicks to Harry and Charlie. Freo bases its game around turnovers and it then spreads wide, developing overlaps that allow it to run the ball up to F50. Freo rarely goes back down the line after an intercept. They bust their balls to keep width for a fast switch.
If we can keep the ball in and around contests, we'll have the advantage. If Freo is able to keep the ball in the open, then they have the advantage. Unfortunately, the Freo gameplan is pretty much what Hawthorn used against us in the last 3 quarters.
I said a while back that Brayshaw is their Cripps. Having looked at some of their games, that's wrong. He's more like Sam Walsh. Brodie is more like Cripps. At centre bounces, Brayshaw tends to play the sweeper/shoulder position behind his ruckman. The ball is tapped to Brodie or Serong and Brayshaw waits for an opportunity to take a handball receive. He's not just a receiver though - he's a hard nut as much as Sam Walsh is and like Walsh runs hard. Gerard Healy suggests he's a weapon on the turnover as he runs forward and creates an overlap forcing defenders to come up to him. Frederick is important in this regard as well as he has serious pace but also a good tank. He can happily come up to the wing and in the blink of an eye he's back at the feet of the tall forwards. Gerard Healy suggests Frederick's opponents should stay goal side of him for fear of him losing them on the way back. Obviously, Lachie Shultz is creative once the ball hits the deck and Michael Walters is still a good player in general play even if his goalkicking radar has inexplicably gone haywire.
Losing 2 of their rebounding defenders will disrupt their game to some degree, if only because stability in the back 6 is critical. Freo have worthy replacements but the cohesion built up over the last few weeks won't necessarily be there even with experienced inclusions such as Logue and Wilson.
Spot on EB. Logue was a top 10 draft pick albeit somewhat of a surprise as he was thought of more as an athlete rather than an elite footy player as a junior...but yes, a good size and would be someone that would likely go against Silvagni when he's forward. But you're right, Young is elite by foot and Chapman has been excellent in the first 5 weeks also so it'll take a bit of their clean kicking skills out which helps us....which means I wouldn't be surprised if Nathan Wilson comes back in to replace one of them and Logue to replace the other.
Pearce and Cox will get the jobs on McKay/Curnow.
Agreed Mav....their small/medium forwards could tear us apart if we're as loose defensively as we've been. Schultz is a dynamic player and goes really hard at it. Him, Fredericks and Walters as you mentioned but Switkowski is also very dangerous. It wouldn't surprise me to see Plowman come back in this week and even Stocker too even though his VFL game last week was quiet from all accounts? I think Parks might go out as he's playing more that third tall which we might not need as much this week.
Yep, Switkowski is one of the 3 express paced guys along with Frederick and Collier. Saad has the pace to go with any of them, but it'll be a challenge for Newman and the Doc. It's pretty easy to see how we might come unstuck in this one.
What we can't do is what Essendon did. Their midfield gave up chasing after half time, turning a game that was in the balance halfway through the 3rd quarter into a cakewalk. Parrish has been highlighted for one passage of play in particular where he was prepared to run when Essendon had the ball on the wing only to drop to a slow jog while an opponent ran out of the contest towards F50. We have some form in this regard and there were a few similar clips shown of our defensive efforts last year.
Unless we pressure their mids as they come forward, we'll suffer the same fate as Essendon. Taberner is like a forward version of Weitering. He doesn't do much that's flashy, but he's very good at doing the basic things. He leads well and is comfortable taking marks on the run with his arms straight out towards the ball. Being 198cm, that makes spoiling him very difficult. Weitering is smart enough to stop him from getting the simple leads he did against Laverde, but if their mids are given enough latitude to wait until Taberner gets free and our mids don't drop back to fill the holes, Weitering will have a hard day at the office. He has improved his kicking out of sight and kicked 7 straight. That flatters him a bit as he got 2 from free kicks, including one around the point post when Parrish was penalised for having a crack at the umpire in the centre of the ground. But he kicked 2 from basically the boundary line using the Stevie J, including 1 on his opposite foot. Lobb is also very happy to take marks on the lead as well as being a handful if the ball comes in long.
Watch out for a kid called ODriscoll for Freo, left footed mid who can get his own ball and also play on the outside.
Had a bit of ball vs Essendon and was a player I liked pre draft.
Think he will be a decent player for Freo and part of their new midfield setup post Fyfe,Mundy etc..
Very good player EB....recruited from my club Perth in the WAFL. From memory his sister plays AFLW too. He's snuck under the radar a bit for sure.
Newnes, Setterfield and Cottrell all preferred to Dow with Kennedy out??
Unless Newnes is about to blossom into an A-grader, for a club woefully short of pace right now I just don’t understand the rationale.
Kennedy is injured: 'knee soreness' the reason on the Carlton website.
To be honest, I would have played Dow, but ...
I don't get Newnes keeping his spot over a couple of others, either. Though Dow's game is not strong defensively whereas Newnes is better in that department... only reason I can think of.
Think I read Newnes had 10 scoring involvements vs Port, bit of a quiet achiever...
I don’t think any of the 22 from the game against Port played poorly enough to lose their place, particularly when no-one in the VFL put their hand up.
Despite some of the hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth, it’s hard to identify a player who lowered their colours against Port.
I think that Newnes is a short to medium term option but, on form, he keeps his place in the team.
I would have dropped Parks for Plowman...Setterfields game didnt impress me either but as you say not a lot of challengers from the VFL team.
This will be another very tough match, the Dockers have a very good emerging list and are starting to get some serious momentum going.
Pull off this win over there and we can be very pleased & proud. Losing this one will not be a black mark against us either as long as we fight it out from the first bounce to the final siren.
Context is everything this weekend.
That’s a real surprise and fingers crossed that he does it again
I don’t mind Newnes, but wouldn’t even consider him ahead of Dow. If we have our eye on a premiership, we need Dow to emerge at AFL level, breaking lines.
I would prefer the King in as a second ruck but not sure who to take out for team balance.
A bit of a slap in the face for TdK. The coaches would prefer to go in with no backup ruckman rather than selecting him. Given we face 2 legit ruckmen, that's a pretty clear assessment of where he's at.
I hope we don't look back on Saturday night and think "the game was lost at the selection table"?
Lobb will be just way too tall for Silvagni in the ruck....will just have to hope our mids can rove to Lobb's taps.
I would've had Dow in there purely for his pace factor at Optus. It's one clear advantage the Dockers have over us.
Setterfield's 50th game so I can see that as the only reason he's got another chance.
And agree with other sentiment around Plowman over Parks for this one.
Not really.
Its probably more about where Freo's ruck is at than not. Darcy was one of the dominant rucks last year so we have 2 options.
1. Pittonet to compete and win/break even.
2. Rove to a losing ruckman, and use an alternate means of winning the game.
TDK might be good enough to win the ruck duals, but he isnt a 4 quarter ruckman.
At this stage, this option appears to be planning for the worst, and hoping for the best. Going with TDK is planning to hope for the best. He was a bit lost playing forward at the moment, and we are better off with other options in there and going with a different look. We also have Lewis Young as an option if we need one.
It's OK - TDK is playing and JSOS isn't....
Just read that. SOJ minor sprain of the ankle, hopefully okay for next week. Plowman joins the emergencies.
TDK... this is your chance, grasp it big fella.
Does that mean Dow is Med emergency?
I'm not sure that we'd use Dow as the sub two weeks in a row.
Shows how much I know, Dow is the sub again 🙄
No JSOS no Carlton. We just lost the heart of the team. :(
Who will step up and be the Defib?
Cripps.
Thankfully he is back, because without both we'd be screwed.
We’ll miss Jack but the team has better balance with two ruckmen.
Lobb is a big unit but he is not much chop as a ruckman. De Koning hasn’t been great but he should have Lobb’s measure when Pitto and Darcy have a spell.
If he breaks even Ill be happy.
Do we think Jack really did injure himself sufficiently to need a week off or was this a case of cold feet as the coaches grappled with the need for a 2nd ruck?
Agree on Lobb, be more of a nuisance down forward with his size and getting the ball to ground for those Freo small forwards, his ruck work is of the timid variety imho.
I admit that I was somewhat sceptical when I heard of his "injury". Anyhow, hopefully DK will grab his opportunity.
I highlighted in the post game thread either this week or last week that he was limping post game and in the rooms.
I thought the articles covering his late withdrawal suggested it was a training incident. Could be wrong on that though. But If I'm speculating the reasons given for the swap might be BS, then I guess I shouldn't place much reliance on what was said while announcing it.
Article did say it was a training incident. But i noted it prior, so perhaps he reinjured it at training...or made it worse to the point he can't play, or they've said enough is enough, we need to rest him because he keeps injuring it.....
edit:
Here is the post from R3 post game i made...
I reckon tonight's game will give us the most accurate indication of where we are. Tonight is the litmus test.
No doubt about that Baggers. Initially, I was pretty dismissive of Freo but the more I looked at them, the more I was impressed. We just don't get to see them much over here. Freo is rarely on FTA and even if you have FoxFooty their games tend to be overshadowed by games involving the big Victorian teams that are played at the same time. They really have some good young talent. Looking a few years down the track, the only area in which we should be stronger than them is in the key forward department. Taberner's 28 and Lobb's 30 or so, while Harry's 22 and Charlie's 25. But of course it doesn't work like that. The Hun ran an article about Victorian clubs jockeying to pinch their full back Pearce who'll be a free agent at the end of the year. And Gold Coast could tell a few stories about how hard it is to keep talented young players together when other clubs start sniffing around. Some Victorian club pinched one of Freo's best young mids last year IIRC.
"Harry's 22 and Charlie's 25."
That can't be right Mav. Charlie, Harry, Weiters and Jack were drafted in the same year and all were born in 1997. Charlie has already turned 25, Harry's birthday is in December.
I imagine that Freo's list manager has plans in place to replace Lobb (and Mundy!) in the near future. Whether he can come up with a talent like Charlie or Harry is another matter.
Freo certainly flies under the radar of folk in the eastern states and they have maintained a pretty good list for some time. For some reason, their performances don't always reflect the strebgth of their list.
It should be a good contest tonight and I'm quietly confident :)
Yep, Harry's 24. As teachers are wont to say, I was just checking if you were concentrating. :-[
Boyd, Motlop and Plowman are the traveling emergencies. Wonder if there will be more last minute changes. 3 seem to be a lot of backup.
Nice article about Charlie, Cerra & Hewitt: Old and new navy Blues: How three recruits have reshaped Carlton, The Age. (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/old-and-new-navy-blues-how-three-recruits-have-reshaped-carlton-20220422-p5afe1.html)
What a super talent Charlie is - we probably all thought "if he can come back half as good that'still a good player" He is a natural star like Doc pretty much. This team has faced so much adversity would love to see our players get some reward now.